Will Cillian Murphy win the Oscar? Predicting Oppenheimer's awards chances

Oppenheimer is big, it's loud, it takes place during World War II, it's about powerful white men blowing stuff up and then feeling a little sad about it — and, to top it off, it's three hours long. While it might put some moviegoers' patience (and bladders) to the test, Christopher Nolan's new movie is everything the traditional, old-school sector of the Academy wants in a big-budget spectacle, and their hearts are about to explode in favor of the historical drama across the awards season ahead.

While the film's runtime might be a dealbreaker for casual audience members, especially given its bleak subject matter, even the most disinterested viewer will appreciate the prowess of the film's central performances.

Oppenheimer is likely to become Nolan's first-ever film to garner multiple acting nods, 15 years after the late Dark Knight star Heath Ledger scored the sole acting nod (and subsequent win) among the director's multi-year filmography. Led by Cillian Murphy's performance as the titular physicist, the film follows Oppenheimer as he wrestles personal ambitions with an internal moral dilemma over fathering the atomic bombs that the United States would eventually use to kill tens of thousands in two Japanese cities at the end of World War II. Murphy masterfully scales Oppenheimer's mental acrobatics en route to what will go down as the performance of his career.

Emily Blunt lights ablaze the role of the dutiful wife, which could've fallen flat if she stuck to what was written on the page. Blunt, who's shockingly never been nominated for an Oscar, makes the most of Kitty Oppenheimer's scenes, which mostly see her guzzling liquor from a flask, standing behind her husband's pursuits, and reluctantly raising their children on her own. It all culminates, though, in a searing close-up scene toward the end of the film that drew applause from the audience at a preview screening in New York City, as Blunt vents all of Kitty's pent-up rage.

As for Florence Pugh, who plays Oppenheimer's former lover, Jean Tatlock, she ferociously sinks her teeth into the minimal material she has to work with, but her blink-and-you'll-miss-it screentime could work against her this season, especially in the context of a three-hour production.

And then there's Robert Downey Jr. Yes, Iron Man is in Oppenheimer, and it might take you a moment to recognize him as the controversial Lewis Strauss, a member of the U.S. Atomic Energy Commission who had a hand in revoking Oppenheimer's security clearance after his time with the Manhattan Project ended. Downey's performance is the kind of supporting turn Hollywood goes nuts for: a beloved, blockbuster staple chewing scenery, showboating, and transforming (he's bald, aged, and bespectacled here) right before our very eyes. If SAG-AFTRA ends its strike and holds a ceremony this year, expect his fellow actors to gobble this performance right up.

While it feels like three of the film's performances could easily coast through the race, there's a case to be made for Matt Damon's turn as Manhattan Project director Lieutenant General Leslie Richard Groves Jr., whose mustachioed, gruff-with-a-heart-of-gold gusto provides some levity, and don't be surprised if Josh Hartnett — whose mini renaissance this year also included a role in Netflix's Black Mirror — creeps into the conversation, too.

While multiple acting nominations are a possibility, more assured category placements for Oppenheimer are in the technical categories. You'd be smart to bet on the film winning the Oscar for Best Sound, a race that it has locked up seven months before the 2024 Academy Awards ceremony for the orchestration of the atomic bomb testing sequence alone. Cinematographer Hoyte van Hoytema (who worked with Nolan on Interstellar, Dunkirk, and Tenet) also facilitates our immersion into Oppenheimer's psyche in stunning fashion, adding a profound layer to the story that won't be ignored by his fellow DPs on the circuit.

Tying it all together, Oppenheimer will probably be this year's most obviously "stacked" Oscar player, with projected support from all of the Academy's individual branches, from technical artisans to the actors and directors, all aligning when it comes time to rank Best Picture votes on the preferential ballot. In pieces, the film represents top-tier filmmaking from its lensing to its on-camera performers, and cinematic chemistry like that points to a scorching ignition of support in the hunt for Oscars.

Oppenheimer is now playing in theaters nationwide.

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