2024 United States presidential election in Ohio
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The 2024 United States presidential election in Ohio is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate. Ohio voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Ohio has 17 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[1]
A heavily populated Midwestern state located mainly in the Rust Belt, and the southern portion of the state having cultural influence from the Upper South and Bible Belt, Ohio has been considered a vital bellwether state for decades and has been decided by single digits at the presidential level since 1992, but has been trending towards the political right in recent years and is now considered a moderately red state. The state voted significantly more Republican than the U.S. at-large when Donald Trump carried the state by just over 8 points in the past two elections despite polls showing a tight race in both cycles, especially 2020, in which the state backed the losing presidential candidate for the first time in 60 years.
The GOP's success in Ohio during the 2022 midterms has further testified to the state's rightward shift and the likely death of its bellwether and swing-state distinctions at the presidential level. Ohio is widely expected to be carried again by Trump in the November general election.[2] Vance's selection has been seen as a strategic effort to bolster support in the Midwest as well as among Trump supporters. Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., has gathered enough signatures to appear on the ballot.[3]
The election will be held concurrently with a U.S. Senate race in Ohio which, despite the state's current Republican lean, is expected to be competitive, among other state and local elections.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]The Ohio Democratic primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside the Arizona, Illinois, Kansas primaries.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 461,558 | 87.06% | 124 | ||
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,629 | 12.94% | 3 | ||
| Total: | 530,187 | 100.00% | 127 | 16 | 133 |
Republican primary
[edit]The Ohio Republican primary was held on March 19, 2024, alongside primaries in Arizona, Florida, and Illinois.
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 896,059 | 79.21% | 79 | 79 | |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 162,563 | 14.37% | |||
| Ron DeSantis (withdrawn) | 38,089 | 3.37% | |||
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 20,027 | 1.77% | |||
| Vivek Ramaswamy (withdrawn) | 14,450 | 1.28% | |||
| Total: | 1,131,188 | 100.00% | 79 | 79 | |
General election
[edit]Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report[6] | Solid R | December 19, 2023 |
| Inside Elections[7] | Likely R | April 26, 2023 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[8] | Safe R | June 13, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[9] | Likely R | December 14, 2023 |
| CNalysis[10] | Likely R | December 30, 2023 |
| CNN[11] | Solid R | January 14, 2024 |
| The Economist[12] | Safe R | July 19, 2024 |
| 538[13] | Likely R | June 11, 2024 |
| RCP[14] | Lean R | June 26, 2024 |
Ballot access controversy
[edit]Due to the Democratic National Convention taking place on August 19, 2024, which occurs more than a week after the August 7 deadline to certify a presidential candidate to the office, under ordinary rules the eventual Democratic nominee would be disqualified from the ballot.[15][16] Efforts to create an emergency fix had stalled in the Ohio Legislature. The state House adjourned without considering a fix on May 8.[17] On May 21, Ohio Secretary of State Frank LaRose provided an update confirming that efforts to rectify the situation were at an impasse, as the state legislature would not take up the issue and the Ohio Democratic Party had offered no "legally acceptable remedy" up to that point. He further clarified that if the party does not work toward a solution themselves, their presidential nominee will not be listed on the November ballot.[18]
On May 23, Governor Mike DeWine called for a special legislative session and tasked lawmakers with ensuring Biden's inclusion on the ballot. Republican leaders in the state Senate, with DeWine's support, hope to pass a bill that will tie solving the ballot access issue to a ban on foreign contributions toward ballot measure efforts in the state. Ohio Democratic Party chair Elizabeth Walters and state House minority leader Allison Russo have signaled their opposition to the ban, which has been described as a poison pill amendment; a spokesperson for DeWine later said that a bill dealing only with the ballot access issue could also be considered.[19]
After the state legislature appeared unable to address the issue, the Democratic Party announced on May 28 that a virtual roll call nomination, similar to the process used by the party in 2020, will take place two weeks before the 2024 Democratic National Convention in order to nominate Biden and meet Ohio's deadline.[20] Nonetheless, the Ohio legislature passed a bill on June 1 extending the deadline to August 23,[21] which DeWine signed on June 2.[22] The law will not take effect until September 1.[23]
Polling
[edit]Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. ends his presidential campaign. | ||||||
| ActiVote[24] | August 2–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 56% | 44% | – |
| Democratic National Convention | ||||||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[25][A] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 51% | 44% | 5% |
| Harris selects Gov. Tim Walz as her running mate. | ||||||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[26][B] | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 42% | 6% |
| Biden announces his official withdrawal from the race; Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| Republican National Convention | ||||||
| attempted assassination of Donald J. Trump | ||||||
| Ohio Northern University[27] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 38% | 11% |
| Trump officially becomes the Republican presumptive nominee | ||||||
| Trump's final significant primary opponent withdraws | ||||||
Donald J. Trump vs. Kamala Harris vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[25][A] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,267 (LV) | – | 50% | 42% | 4% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[26][B] | July 23–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 39% | 9% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Remington Research Group (R)[28] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 611 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 41% | 8% |
| National Public Affairs[29] | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 54% | 46% | – |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[30] | March 13–15, 2024 | 818 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 51% | 40% | 9% |
| Ohio Northern University[27] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Emerson College[31][C] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 55% | 45% | – |
| Emerson College[32][C] | January 23–25, 2024 | 1,844 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 47% | 36% | 17% |
| Emerson College/WJW-TV[33] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Data for Progress (D)[34] | October 31 – November 2, 2023 | 597 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 43% | 6% |
| Ohio Northern University[35] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 40% | 15%[b] |
| Emerson College[36] | October 2–4, 2023 | 438 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 45% | 33% | 23% |
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[37] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Ohio Northern University[38] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 49% | 39% | 12% |
| Targoz Market Research[39] | November 2–6, 2022 | 505 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 57% | 40% | 3% |
| Emerson College[40] | October 30 – November 1, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 38% | 12% |
| Ohio Northern University/Lucid[41] | October 11–15, 2022 | 668 (LV) | – | 55% | 35% | 10% |
| Emerson College[42] | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 40% | 12% |
| Emerson College[43] | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 40% | 10% |
| Echelon Insights[44] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 41% | 10% |
| Emerson College[45] | August 15–16, 2022 | 925 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 53% | 39% | 8% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[46][D] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marist College[47] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,137 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| National Public Affairs[29] | May 28–29, 2024 | 801 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 40% | 7% | 2% | 3% | – |
| East Carolina University[48] | March 8–11, 2024 | 1,298 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 38% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College[31][C] | March 7–10, 2024 | 1,300 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 47% | 38% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Emerson College/WJW-TV[33] | November 10–13, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 31% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 13% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden. vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[27] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 32% | 13% | 11% |
| Ohio Northern University[49] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 35% | 11% | 12%[c] |
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[37] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 45% | 36% | 9% | 10% |
| Suffolk University[50] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 44% | 38% | 2% | 16% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Joe Biden vs. Joe Manchin vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Joe Manchin Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research/Change Research/Future Majority (D)[37] | September 16–19, 2023 | 1,559 (RV) | – | 42% | 34% | 6% | 6% | 12% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Gretchen Whitmer
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[27] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 34% | 15% |
Nikki Haley vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[49] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 34% | 36% | 30%[d] |
| Ohio Northern University[38] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 38% | 24% |
Ron DeSantis vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[49] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 41% | 21%[e] |
| Ohio Northern University[38] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| Emerson College[42] | October 6–7, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 38% | 13% |
| Emerson College[43] | September 12–13, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Echelon Insights[44] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 831 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 40% | 14% |
Ron Desantis vs. Joe Biden vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Ron Desantis Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Cornel West Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk University[50] | July 9–12, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 39% | 37% | 2% | 22% |
Chris Christie vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Chris Christie Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[38] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 33% | 39% | 28% |
Mike Pence vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Mike Pence Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[49] | October 16–19, 2023 | 668 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 38% | 24%[f] |
| Ohio Northern University[38] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 37% | 38% | 25% |
Tim Scott vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Tim Scott Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[38] | July 17–26, 2023 | 675 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 39% | 23% |
Generic Republican vs. Joe Biden
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Causeway Solutions[51] | May 19–27, 2023 | 1,639 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 45% | 33% | 22% |
Donald J. Trump vs. Gavin Newsom
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Donald J. Trump Republican |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio Northern University[27] | March 6–11, 2024 | 1,241 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 51% | 33% | 16% |
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Ohio
- 2024 United States presidential election
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 10%
- ^ Some Other Candidate at 2%; Undecided at 10%
- ^ Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 22%
- ^ Some Other Candidate at 5%; Undecided at 16%
- ^ Some Other Candidate at 8%; Undecided at 16%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Nexstar Media Group
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
References
[edit]- ^ Wang, Hansi; Jin, Connie; Levitt, Zach (April 26, 2021). "Here's How The 1st 2020 Census Results Changed Electoral College, House Seats". NPR. Archived from the original on August 19, 2021. Retrieved August 20, 2021.
- ^ "270toWin - 2024 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270toWin.com. Retrieved March 29, 2024.
- ^ Pelzer, Jeremy (May 9, 2024). "Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s campaign says he has enough signatures to make Ohio's 2024 presidential ballot". cleveland. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "Ohio Presidential Primary". The AP. Retrieved April 27, 2024.
- ^ "Ohio Presidential Primary". The AP. April 26, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ "2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings". cookpolitical.com. Cook Political Report. December 19, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". insideelections.com. Inside Elections. April 26, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
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- ^ "2024 presidential predictions". elections2024.thehill.com/. The Hill. December 14, 2023. Retrieved January 11, 2024.
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- ^ "2024 RCP Electoral College Map". RealClearPolitics. June 26, 2024. Retrieved June 26, 2024.
- ^ "Biden may have trouble getting on Ohio's general election ballot, state's top election official warns". NBC News. April 6, 2024. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ Quarshie, Mabinty (May 9, 2024). "Biden struggles to get on Ohio's November ballot - Washington Examiner". Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ Thomas, Hannah (May 9, 2024). "Efforts to get Biden on November ballot stall in Ohio Statehouse". WLWT. Retrieved May 9, 2024.
- ^ Dietz, Matthew (May 21, 2024). "Ohio Sec. of State provides update on efforts to get President Biden on November ballot". WLWT. Retrieved May 22, 2024.
- ^ "Ohio governor calls special session to pass legislation ensuring President Biden is on 2024 ballot". Associated Press. May 23, 2024. Retrieved May 24, 2024.
- ^ Egan, Lauren (May 28, 2024). "Biden to be nominated virtually before the convention in order to get on Ohio's ballot". Politico.
- ^ Murray, Isabella (June 1, 2024). "Ohio passes bill to ensure Biden appears on November ballot -- but DNC still plans to hold virtual roll call". ABC News.
- ^ Kasler, Karen (June 3, 2024). "DeWine signs Biden Ohio ballot fix and foreign money ban he asked for in special session". WCBE. Retrieved June 3, 2024.
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- ^ Allis, Victor (August 22, 2024). "Trump Has Double-Digit Lead in Ohio". ActiVote. Retrieved August 23, 2024.
- ^ a b Draeger, Jonathan (August 18, 2024). "No Frontrunner in Swing States Before Democratic Convention". RealClearPolling.
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- ^ a b c d e "March Ohio Primary Poll". Google Docs. March 13, 2024.
- ^ "Exclusive: Battleground Poll Shows Biden Tanking In Key States After Disastrous Debate". www.dailywire.com. July 3, 2024.
- ^ a b "Dropbox" (PDF). www.dropbox.com.
- ^ "March 16 Poll – FAU PolCom Lab".
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (March 13, 2024). "Ohio 2024 Poll: Dolan 26%, Moreno 23%, LaRose 16%, 32% undecided in GOP Primary". Emerson Polling.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (February 1, 2024). "Ohio 2024 Poll: Sherrod Brown Gears Up for Tight Re-election Campaign". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (November 16, 2023). "Ohio 2024 Poll: Brown Tops Potential GOP Opponents in the U.S. Senate Race". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Data for Progress (D)" (PDF).
- ^ "Ohio Northern University" (PDF).
- ^ Mumford, Camille (October 10, 2023). "Ohio 2024 Poll: Brown Faces Competitive General Election; Trump Leads Biden in 2024 Matchup". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b c "Change Research/Future Majority (D)" (PDF).
- ^ a b c d e f "northern_poll_summer2023topline_SM.pdf". Google Docs.
- ^ "Ohio Poll: Vance Leads Ryan". PollSmart MR. November 7, 2022.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (November 4, 2022). "Ohio 2022: Vance Extends Lead Over Ryan for US Senate". Emerson Polling.
- ^ "Northern Poll". Ohio Northern University.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (October 12, 2022). "Ohio 2022: Ryan and Vance in Dead Heat for Ohio Senate Seat; Gov. DeWine Maintains Double-Digit Lead Over Whaley". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b Mumford, Camille (September 16, 2022). "Ohio 2022: Vance Holds Four-Point Lead Over Ryan; DeWine Maintains Comfortable Lead over Whaley". Emerson Polling.
- ^ a b Chavez, Krista (September 13, 2022). "New National Poll: 89% of Americans Say Congress Should Focus on Addressing Inflation, Not Breaking Up Tech". NetChoice.
- ^ Mumford, Camille (August 17, 2022). "Ohio 2022: JD Vance Leads Tim Ryan In Competitive Bid for US Senate; Gov. DeWine Holds 16-Point Lead Over Democratic Challenger". Emerson Polling.
- ^ PEM Management Corporation (R)
- ^ "Home of the Marist Poll | Polls, Analysis, Learning, and More". maristpoll.marist.edu.
- ^ "ECU Center for Survey Research - Matt Dolan Holds Narrow Lead Over Bernie Moreno in Ohio Senate Republican Primary; Frank LaRose in Third Place; General Election Matchups with Sherrod Brown Competitive; Trump Leads Biden by 10 Points". surveyresearch-ecu.reportablenews.com.
- ^ a b c d Ohio Northern University
- ^ a b "Suffolk University" (PDF).
- ^ Gorman, Reese (June 7, 2023). "Undeclared Frank LaRose leads Ohio Senate Republican primary race, poll says - Washington Examiner".
