Jump to content

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

This is an old revision of this page, as edited by GuardianH (talk | contribs) at 04:48, 27 July 2024 (fmt). The present address (URL) is a permanent link to this revision, which may differ significantly from the current revision.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb
Taleb in 2010
Born12 September 1960 (1960-09-12) (age 64)
Amioun, Lebanon
NationalityLebanese and American
Alma mater
Known forApplied epistemology, antifragility, black swan theory, ludic fallacy, antilibrary
AwardsBruno Leoni Award, Wolfram Innovator Award
Scientific career
FieldsDecision theory, risk, probability
InstitutionsNew York University Tandon School of Engineering, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences
Thesis The Microstructure of Dynamic Hedging  (1998)
Doctoral advisorHélyette Geman
Websitefooledbyrandomness.com

Nassim Nicholas Taleb[a] (/ˈtɑːləb/; alternatively Nessim or Nissim; born 12 September 1960) is a Lebanese-American essayist, mathematical statistician, former option trader, risk analyst, and aphorist.[1][2] His work concerns problems of randomness, probability, and uncertainty.

Taleb is the author of the Incerto, a five-volume philosophical essay on uncertainty published between 2001 and 2018 (notably, The Black Swan and Antifragile). He has been a professor at several universities, serving as a Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at the New York University Tandon School of Engineering since September 2008.[3][4][5][6][7] He has been co-editor-in-chief of the academic journal Risk and Decision Analysis since September 2014. He has also been a practitioner of mathematical finance, a hedge fund manager, and a derivatives trader, and is currently listed as a scientific adviser at Universa Investments.[8] The Sunday Times called his 2007 book The Black Swan one of the 12 most influential books since World War II.[9]

Taleb criticized the risk management methods used by the finance industry and warned about financial crises, subsequently profiting from the late-2000s financial crisis.[10][11] He advocates what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events.[12] He proposes what he has termed "antifragility" in systems; that is, an ability to benefit and grow from a certain class of random events, errors, and volatility,[13][14] as well as "convex tinkering" as a method of scientific discovery, by which he means that decentralized experimentation outperforms directed research.[15][16]

Early life and family background

Taleb as a student

Taleb was born in Amioun, Lebanon, to Minerva Ghosn and Nagib Taleb,[17] an oncologist and a researcher in anthropology. His parents were of Antiochian Greek descent,[18] holding French citizenship. His grandfather, Fouad Nicolas Ghosn [Wikidata], and his great-grandfather, Nicolas Ghosn [Wikidata], were both deputy prime ministers in the 1940s through the 1970s. His paternal grandfather Nassim Taleb was a supreme court judge and his great-great-great-great-grandfather, Ibrahim Taleb (Nabbout), was a governor of Mount Lebanon in 1866.[19][20][21] Taleb attended a French school there, the Grand Lycée Franco-Libanais in Beirut.[22][23] His family saw its political prominence and wealth reduced by the Lebanese Civil War, which began in 1975.[24] He is a Greek Orthodox Christian.[25]

Education

Taleb received his bachelor and Master of Science degrees from the University of Paris.[26] [clarification needed (see talk)] He holds an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania (1983),[22][10] and a PhD in management science from the University of Paris (Dauphine) (1998),[27] under the direction of Hélyette Geman.[27] His dissertation focused on the mathematics of derivatives pricing.[27][28]

According to a profile in Le Monde, Taleb claims to read in ten languages.[29]

Finance view

Taleb has been a practitioner of mathematical finance,[30] a hedge fund manager,[12][31][32] and a derivatives trader.[22][33][34] He is a scientific adviser at Universa Investments.

Taleb considers himself less a businessman than an epistemologist of randomness, and says that he used trading to attain independence and freedom from authority.[35] He advocated for tail risk hedging,[36] which is intended to mitigate investors' exposure to extreme market moves. His business model has been to safeguard investors against crises while reaping rewards from rare events, and thus his investment management career has included several jackpots followed by lengthy dry spells.[22]

He has also held the following positions:[37][38][39] managing director and proprietary trader at Credit Suisse UBS, worldwide chief proprietary arbitrage derivatives trader for currencies, commodities and non-dollar fixed income at First Boston, chief currency derivatives trader for Banque Indosuez, managing director and worldwide head of financial option arbitrage at CIBC Wood Gundy, derivatives arbitrage trader at Bankers Trust (now Deutsche Bank), proprietary trader at BNP Paribas, independent option market maker on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and founder of Empirica Capital.

Taleb reportedly became financially independent after the crash of 1987[22] and was successful during the Nasdaq dive in 2000[35] as well as the financial crisis that began in 2007,[10] a development he attributed to the mismatch between reality and statistical distributions used in finance. After that crisis, Taleb became an activist for what he called a "black swan robust society".[40][4] Since 2007 he has been a Principal/Senior Scientific Adviser at Universa Investments in Miami, Florida, a fund based on the "black swan" idea, owned and managed by former Empirica partner Mark Spitznagel. Some of its separate funds made returns of 65% to 115% in October 2008.[10][41] In a 2007 Wall Street Journal article, Taleb claimed he retired from trading in 2004 and became a full-time author.[42][contradictory][10] He describes the nature of his involvement as "totally passive" from 2010 on.[43]

Taleb attended the World Economic Forum annual meeting in Davos in 2009; at that event he had harsh words for bankers, suggesting that bankers' recklessness will not be repeated "if you have punishment".[44][45]

Academic career

Taleb changed careers and became a mathematical researcher and philosophical essayist in 2006,[37] and has held positions at NYU's Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences, at University of Massachusetts Amherst, at London Business School, and at Oxford University. He has been Distinguished Professor of Risk Engineering at New York University Tandon School of Engineering since 2008.[7][37][46][47] He was Distinguished Research Scholar at the Said Business School BT Center, University of Oxford from 2009 to 2013.[48]

Taleb is co-Editor in Chief of the academic journal Risk and Decision Analysis (since September 2014),[49] jointly teaches regular courses with Paul Wilmott in London (19th time, March 2015),[50] and occasionally participates in teaching courses toward the Certificate in Quantitative Finance.[51] He is also co-faculty at the New England Complex Systems Institute.[52]

Writing career

Taleb's five volume philosophical essay on uncertainty, titled Incerto, covers the following books: Fooled by Randomness (2001), The Black Swan (2007–2010), The Bed of Procrustes (2010), Antifragile (2012), and Skin in the Game (2018). It was originally published in November 2016 including only the first four books. The fifth book was added in August 2019.

His first non-technical book, Fooled by Randomness, about the underestimation of the role of randomness in life, published in 2001, was selected by Fortune as one of the smartest 75 books known.[53]

His second non-technical book, The Black Swan, about unpredictable events, was published in 2007, selling close to three million copies (as of February 2011). It spent 36 weeks on the New York Times Bestseller list,[54] 17 as hardcover and 19 weeks as paperback,[22][55] and was translated into 50 languages.[22] [56] The book has been credited with predicting the banking and economic crisis of 2008.[18][57]

In a 2008 article in The Times, the journalist Bryan Appleyard described Taleb as "now the hottest thinker in the world".[33] Daniel Kahneman proposed the inclusion of Taleb's name among the world's top intellectuals, saying "Taleb has changed the way many people think about uncertainty, particularly in the financial markets. His book, The Black Swan, is an original and audacious analysis of the ways in which humans try to make sense of unexpected events."[58]

A book of aphorisms, The Bed of Procrustes: Philosophical and Practical Aphorisms, was released in December 2010.

The fourth book of his Incerto series—Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder—was published in November 2012.[59]

The fifth book of his Incerto series—Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life—was published in February 2018.

Taleb's non-technical writing style has been described as mixing a narrative, often semi-autobiographical style with short philosophical tales and historical and scientific commentary. The sales of Taleb's first two books garnered an advance of $4 million, for a follow-up book on anti-fragility.[22]

Ideas and theories

Genealogy map of topics treated by Nassim Taleb

Taleb's book The Bed of Procrustes summarizes the central problem: "we humans, facing limits of knowledge, and things we do not observe, the unseen and the unknown, resolve the tension by squeezing life and the world into crisp commoditized ideas". Taleb disagrees with Platonic (i.e., theoretical) approaches to reality to the extent that they lead people to have the wrong map of reality, rather than no map at all.[34] He opposes most economic and grand social science theorizing, which in his view, suffers acutely from the problem of overuse of Plato's theory of forms. Based on these and other constructions, he advocates for what he calls a "black swan robust" society, meaning a society that can withstand difficult-to-predict events.[12]

He has also proposed that biological, economic, and other systems exhibit an ability to benefit and grow from volatility—including particular types of random errors and events—a characteristic of these systems that he terms antifragility.[60][61] Relatedly, he also believes that universities are better at public relations and claiming credit than generating knowledge. He argues that knowledge and technology are usually generated by what he calls "stochastic tinkering" rather than by top-down directed research,[62][63]: 182  and has proposed option-like experimentation as a way to outperform directed research as a method of scientific discovery, an approach he terms convex tinkering.[59]: 181ff, 213ff, 236ff 

Taleb has called for cancellation of the Nobel Prize in Economics, saying that the damage from economic theories can be devastating.[64][65] He opposes top-down knowledge as an academic illusion.[66] Together with Espen Gaarder Haug, Taleb asserts that option pricing is determined in a "heuristic way" by operators, not by a model, and that models are "lecturing birds on how to fly".[66] Teacher and author Pablo Triana has explored this topic with reference to Haug and Taleb,[67] and says that perhaps Taleb is correct to urge that banks be treated as utilities forbidden to take potentially lethal risks, while hedge funds and other unregulated entities should be able to do what they want.[68]

In his writings, Taleb has identified and discussed the error of comparing real-world randomness with the "structured randomness" in quantum physics where probabilities are computable or games of chance such as casino gambling in which the probabilities are purposefully constructed by the proprietors.[69][70][71][72] Taleb calls this the "ludic fallacy". He argues that predictive models suffer from Platonism, gravitating towards mathematical purity and failing to take some key ideas into account, such as: the impossibility of possessing all relevant information, that small unknown variations in the data can have a huge impact, and flawed theories/models that are based on empirical data and that fail to consider events that have not taken place, but could have taken place. Discussing the ludic fallacy in The Black Swan, he writes, "The dark side of the moon is harder to see; beaming light on it costs energy. In the same way, beaming light on the unseen is costly, in both computational and mental effort."

In the second edition of The Black Swan, he posited that the foundations of quantitative economics are faulty and highly self-referential. He states that statistics is fundamentally incomplete as a field, as it cannot predict the risk of rare events, a problem that is acute in proportion to the rarity of these events. With the mathematician Raphael Douady, he called the problem statistical undecidability (Douady and Taleb, 2010).[73]

Taleb has described his main challenge as mapping his ideas of "robustification" and "antifragility", that is, how to live and act in a world we do not understand and build robustness to black swan events. Taleb introduced the idea of the "fourth quadrant" in the exposure domain.[74] One of its applications is in his definition of the most effective (that is, least fragile) risk management approach: what he calls the "barbell strategy" which is based on avoiding the middle in favor of linear combination of extremes, across all domains from politics to economics to one's personal life. These are deemed by Taleb to be more robust to estimation errors. For instance, he suggests that investing money in 'medium risk' investments is pointless, because risk is difficult, if not impossible to compute. His preferred strategy is to be both hyper-conservative and hyper-aggressive at the same time. For example, an investor might put 80 to 90% of their money in extremely safe instruments, such as treasury bills, with the remainder going into highly risky and diversified speculative bets. An alternative suggestion is to engage in highly speculative bets with a limited downside.

Taleb asserts that by adopting these strategies a portfolio can be "robust", that is, gain a positive exposure to black swan events while limiting losses suffered by such random events.[75]: 207  Together with Donald Geman and Hélyette Geman, he modeled the "maximum entropy barbell" which consists in "to constrain only what can be constrained (in a robust manner) and to maximize entropy elsewhere", based on an insight by E. T. Jaynes that economic life increases in entropy under regulatory and other constraints.[76] Taleb also applies a similar barbell-style approach to health and exercise. Instead of doing steady and moderate exercise daily, he suggests that it is better to do a low-effort exercise such as walking slowly most of the time, while occasionally expending extreme effort. He claims that the human body evolved to live in a random environment, with various unexpected but intense efforts and much rest.[77]

He appeared as a special guest on The Ron Paul Liberty Report on 19 May 2017, and stated his support for a non-interventionist foreign policy.[78] Taleb subsequently appeared with Ron Paul[79] and Ralph Nader[80] on their respective shows in support of Skin in the Game, which was dedicated to both men.[81][82] After the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, however, Taleb publicly supported an aggressive response against Russia and denounced "naive libertarians, who think I'm like them because they like my books."[83]

Taleb wrote in Antifragile and in scientific papers[84] that if the statistical structure of habits in modern society differ too greatly from the ancestral environment of humanity, the analysis of consumption should focus less on composition and more on frequency. In other words, studies that ignore the random nature of supply of nutrients are invalid.

Taleb co-authored a paper with Yaneer Bar-Yam and Joseph Norman called Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note. The paper published on 26 January 2020, took the position that the SARS-CoV-2 was not being taken seriously enough by policy makers and medical professionals.[85][86]

Criticism and reactions

Aaron Brown, an author, quantitative analyst and adjunct professor in finance at Yeshiva and Fordham Universities, said regarding The Black Swan that "the book reads as if Taleb has never heard of nonparametric methods, data analysis, visualization tools or robust estimation."[87] Nonetheless, he calls the book "essential reading" and urges statisticians to overlook the insults to get the "important philosophic and mathematical truths." Taleb replied in the second edition of The Black Swan that "One of the most common (but useless) comments I hear is that some solutions can come from 'robust statistics.' I wonder how using these techniques can create information where there is none".[88]: 353  Westfall and Hilbe in 2007 complained that Taleb's criticism is "often unfounded and sometimes outrageous."[89] Taleb, writes John Kay, "describes writers and professionals as knaves or fools, mostly fools. His writing is full of irrelevances, asides and colloquialisms, reading like the conversation of a raconteur rather than a tightly argued thesis. But it is hugely enjoyable – compelling but easy to dip into. Yet beneath his rage and mockery are serious issues. The risk management models in use today exclude the very events against which they claim to protect the businesses that employ them. These models import a veneer of technical sophistication ... Quantitative analysts have lulled corporate executives and regulators into an illusory sense of security."[90] Berkeley statistician David Freedman said that efforts by statisticians to refute Taleb's stance have been unconvincing.[91]

Taleb contends that statisticians can be pseudoscientists when it comes to risks of rare events and risks of blowups, and mask their incompetence with complicated equations.[92] This stance has attracted criticism: the American Statistical Association devoted the August 2007 issue of The American Statistician to The Black Swan. The magazine offered a mixture of praise and criticism for Taleb's main points, with a focus on Taleb's writing style and his representation of the statistical literature. Robert Lund, a mathematics professor at Clemson University, writes that in Black Swan, Taleb is "reckless at times and subject to grandiose overstatements; the professional statistician will find the book ubiquitously naive."[93] However, Lund acknowledges that "there are many points where I agree with Taleb," and writes that "the book is a must" for anyone "remotely interested in finance and/or philosophical probability."

Taleb and Nobel laureate Myron Scholes have traded personal attacks, particularly after Taleb's paper with Espen Gaarder Haug [no] on why nobody used the Black–Scholes–Merton formula. Taleb said that Scholes was responsible for the financial crises of 2008, and suggested that "this guy should be in a retirement home doing Sudoku. His funds have blown up twice. He shouldn't be allowed in Washington to lecture anyone on risk."[4] Scholes retorted that Taleb simply "popularises ideas and is making money selling books". Scholes claimed that Taleb does not cite previous literature, and for this reason Taleb is not taken seriously in academia.[94] Haug and Taleb (2011) listed hundreds of research documents showing the Black–Scholes formula was not Scholes' at all, and argued that the economics establishment ignored literature by practitioners and mathematicians (such as Ed Thorp), who had developed a more sophisticated version of the formula.[95]

In an interview on Charlie Rose, Taleb said that he saw that none of the criticism he received for The Black Swan refuted his central point, which convinced him to protect his assets and those of his clients.[96]

Taleb's aggressive and clearly directed commentary against parts of the finance industry—e.g., stating at Davos in 2009 that he was "happy" that Lehman Brothers collapsed—has led to reports of personal attacks and possible threats.[97]

Honors

Major works

Books

Incerto

Incerto is a group of works by Taleb as philosophical essays on uncertainty. It was bundled into a group of four works in November 2016 ISBN 978-0399590450. A fifth book, Skin in the Game, was published in February 2018. This fifth book is bundled with the other four works in July 2019 as Incerto (Deluxe Edition) ISBN 978-1984819819.

Technical Incerto

  • Statistical Consequences of Fat Tails: Real World Preasymptotics, Epistemology, and Applications (Technical Incerto Vol. 1). STEM Academic Press. 2020. ISBN 978-1-5445-0805-4.

Other

Selection of papers

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Arabic: نسيم نقولا طالب

References

  1. ^ Berenson, Alex (11 September 2009). "A Year Later, Little Change on Wall St". The New York Times. Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a statistician, trader, and author, has argued for years that. ...
  2. ^ Maslin, Janet (16 November 2010). "Explaining the Modern World and Keeping It Short". The New York Times. In his happily provocative new book of aphorisms, the fiscal prophet and self-appointed flâneur Nassim Nicholas Taleb aims particular scorn at anyone who thinks aphorisms require explanation. ...
  3. ^ "Hardcover Business Best Sellers". New York Times. 2 November 2008.
  4. ^ a b c Maneker, Marion (26 March 2009). "Mr. Taleb goes to Washington". The Big Money. Slate. Archived from the original on 19 April 2016. Retrieved 8 May 2015. and Additional archive, accessed 7 May 2015.
  5. ^ "Right Out Of The Blue". Businessworld. 24 April 2007. Archived from the original on 8 September 2009. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  6. ^ "The third culture – Nassim Nicholas Taleb". Edge. Archived from the original on 24 July 2013. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  7. ^ a b "Nassim Nicholas Taleb". NYU Tandon School of Engineering.
  8. ^ "People at Universa Investments L.P." www.universa.net. Universa Investments L.P. Archived from the original on 23 July 2018. Retrieved 8 March 2018.
  9. ^ Appleyard, Bryan (19 July 2009). "Books that helped to change the world". The Sunday Times.
  10. ^ a b c d e Patterson, Scott (3 November 2008). "October Pain Was 'Black Swan' Gain". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  11. ^ Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. "How Do You Solve A Problem Like Uncertainty". IAI TV. Retrieved 14 February 2014.
  12. ^ a b c "Brevan Howard Shows Paranoid Survive in Hedge Fund of Time Outs". Bloomberg News. 31 March 2009. 'black swans' – difficult-to-predict events that can wipe out a fund. The term was popularized by hedge fund manager and author Nassim Taleb."
  13. ^ Danchin, Antoine; Binder, Philippe M.; Noria, Stanislas (2011). "Genes | Free Full-Text | Antifragility and Tinkering in Biology (and in Business) Flexibility Provides an Efficient Epigenetic Way to Manage Risk". Genes. 2 (4): 998–1016. doi:10.3390/genes2040998. PMC 3927596. PMID 24710302.
  14. ^ "Antoine Danchin on The Anti-Fragile Life of the Economy". Project-syndicate.org. 1 May 2015. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  15. ^ Derbyshire, J.; Wright, G. (2014). "Preparing for the future: development of an 'antifragile' methodology that complements scenario planning by omitting causation" (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 82: 215–225. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2013.07.001.
  16. ^ Mattos-Hall, J. A. (2014). Strategy Under Uncertainty: Open Innovation and Strategic Learning for the Iceland Ocean Cluster (Thesis) (Thesis).
  17. ^ "Fooled by Randomness – Education" (PDF). Retrieved 23 November 2017. My father was known in Lebanon as the "Intelligent Student Student Intelligent", after a play on words as intelligent student (or scholar) meant "Taleb Nagib" and his name was Nagib Taleb
  18. ^ a b Cadwalladr, Carole (24 November 2012). "Nassim Taleb: my rules for life". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  19. ^ Gladwell, Malcolm (15 April 2002). "Blowing Up". The New Yorker. Retrieved 3 January 2019 – via www.newyorker.com.
  20. ^ "How to avert catastrophe". Financial Times. 19 January 2017. Retrieved 3 January 2019.
  21. ^ "Honorary Doctorates". www.aub.edu.lb. Retrieved 3 January 2019.
  22. ^ a b c d e f g h Baker-Said, Stephanie (27 March 2008). "Flight of the Black Swan". Bloomberg Markets. Archived from the original on 26 March 2012.
  23. ^ Wighton, David (28 March 2008). "Lunch with the FT: Nassim Nicholas Taleb". Financial Times. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  24. ^ Helmore, Edward (27 September 2008). "The new sage of Wall Street". The Guardian. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  25. ^ @nntaleb (27 September 2019). "Christian Orthodox" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  26. ^ "Cynthia Shelton, Business Student, Is Wed in Atlanta". The New York Times. 31 January 1988. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  27. ^ a b c BBK, 2015, "Our staff: Helyette Geman, PhD Students, Past Students," at Birkbeck, University of London, Dept of Economics, Mathematics and Statistics, see [1] and [2], accessed 7 May 2015.
  28. ^ Thèses Soutenes (24 June 1998). "Nassim Taleb, Réplication d'option et structure du marché" [Replication of Options and Market Structure]. DRM Finance (in French). Archived from the original on 18 May 2015. Retrieved 10 May 2015.
  29. ^ "Nassim Nicholas Taleb, le sauvage de la finance". Le Monde.fr (in French). 20 November 2007. Retrieved 22 August 2020.
  30. ^ Tett, G. (27 March 2011). "Black swans, but no need to flap ..." Financial Times. p. 12. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  31. ^ "He Said It". Washington Post. 18 October 2008. Nassim Taleb a former hedge fund manager commenting on the performance of accounts run by Universa Investments where he is an adviser ...
  32. ^ "What I Read". USA Today. 4 August 2006. Taleb, a hedge fund manager, warns of trying to predict behavior by analyzing past successes.
  33. ^ a b Appleyard, Bryan (1 June 2008). "Nassim Nicholas Taleb the prophet of boom and doom". The Times. London. Retrieved 19 May 2010.
  34. ^ a b Dubner, Stephen (21 May 2007). "Straight From the Black Swan's Mouth". The New York Times.
  35. ^ a b Stone, Amy (23 October 2005). "Profiting from the Unexpected". Bloomberg Business Week. Retrieved 7 May 2015. "Profiting from the Unexpected". Archived from the original on 21 October 2006. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  36. ^ Harrington, Shannon D. (19 July 2010). "Pimco Sells Black Swan Protection as Wall Street Markets Fear". Bloomberg. Retrieved 1 October 2010.
  37. ^ a b c Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page, "Official Academic Biography", at fooledbyrandomness.com (online), accessed 9 May 2015.
  38. ^ Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page, Professional Information, at fooledbyrandomness.com, accessed 9 May 2015.
  39. ^ "Taleb Outsells Greenspan as Black Swan Gives Worst Turbulence". Bloomberg News.
  40. ^ "Ten principles for a Black Swan-proofworld". The Financial Times. 8 April 2009. Archived from the original on 28 February 2013. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  41. ^ "Taleb Says Business Schools Use 'Bogus' Risk Models (Update1)". Bloomberg News. 7 November 2008.
  42. ^ Patterson, Scott (13 July 2007). "Mr. Volatility and the Swan". The Wall Street Journal. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  43. ^ Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page, Business Positions, at fooledbyrandomness.com, accessed 24 May 2015.
  44. ^ Ignatius, David (1 February 2009). "Humbled Economic Masters at Davos". The Washington Post. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  45. ^ Redburn, Tom (28 January 2009). "A Rallying Cry to Claw Back Bonuses". DealBook. The New York Times. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  46. ^ Anon., 2008, News: Press Room: 'Hottest Thinker in the World' Joins Faculty, at NYU-Poly (online), 8 September 2008, accessed 7 May 2014.
  47. ^ John F. Kelly, 2008, Nassim Nicolas Taleb, Author of the National Bestseller, The Black Swan, Joins Polytechnic Institute of NYU Archived 29 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine, at NYU-Poly (press release), 3 October 2008, accessed 7 May 2014.
  48. ^ Oxford Said School of Business, archived from the original on 21 October 2012, retrieved 28 December 2016
  49. ^ IOS Press, 2014, News: New Co-Editor-in-Chief Risk and Decision Analysis, at IOS Press (online), 19 September 2014, accessed 7 May 2014.
  50. ^ Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Home Page, Lecture Page, at fooledbyrandomness.com (online), accessed 9 May 2015.
  51. ^ "Certificate in Quantitative Finance – Course Guide," at Wilmott, 2008 (online), see "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 16 September 2012. Retrieved 9 May 2015.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link), accessed 9 May 2015.
  52. ^ "Faculty". New England Complex Systems Institute.
  53. ^ Useem, Jerry (21 March 2005). "The Smartest Books We Know". Fortune. Retrieved 28 August 2013.
  54. ^ "Charlie Rose Talks to Nassim Taleb". Business Week. 24 February 2011. Archived from the original on 26 February 2011. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  55. ^ Schuessler, Jennifer. "Hardcover". The New York Times.
  56. ^ "Nassim Nicholas Taleb".
  57. ^ Brooks, David (27 October 2008). "The Behavioral Revolution". The New York Times. Not only did Taleb have an explanation for the crisis, but he saw it coming
  58. ^ Kahneman, Daniel (2008). "How Could You Not Include ..." Foreign Policy. Archived from the original on 29 March 2009. Retrieved 14 October 2009.
  59. ^ a b Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2012, Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder, Random House (ISBN 0679645276) and Penguin Books (ISBN 0718197909), accessed 7 May 2015.
  60. ^ Antoine Danchin, Philippe M. Binder, & Stanislas Noria, 2011, Antifragility and Tinkering in Biology (and in Business) Flexibility Provides an Efficient Epigenetic Way to Manage Risk, Genes 2(4):998–1016, doi:10.3390/genes2040998Review, accessed 7 May 2015.
  61. ^ Antoine Danchin, 2012, Innovation & Technology: The Anti-Fragile Life of the Economy, at Project Syndicate (online), 2 April 2012, accessed 7 May 2015.
  62. ^ Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2001, The Birth of Stochastic Science Archived 8 December 2008 at the Wayback Machine, at Edge (online), 11 September 2001, accessed 7 May 2015.
  63. ^ Ma'n Barāzī, 2009, Lebanon's rational fools: From the roots of the "economic qabaday" till the 2009 depression election... conflicting tale of paradigms and economic change, Beirut, Lebanon: Data & Investment Consult – Lebanon, p. 182, accessed 7 May 2015.
  64. ^ Nassim Nicholas Taleb, 2007, "Opinion: The pseudo-science hurting markets," at Financial Times (online), 23 October 2007, see [3] and [4], accessed 7 May 2014.
  65. ^ Cox, Adam (28 September 2010). "Blame Nobel for crisis, says author of 'Black Swan". Reuters.
  66. ^ a b Russ Roberts. "Taleb on the Financial Crisis". The Library of Economics and Liberty (Podcast).
  67. ^ Triana, Pablo. Lecturing Birds on Flying: Can Mathematical Theories Destroy the Financial Markets? Wiley Publishing (2009).
  68. ^ Garcia, Cardiff de Alejo (12 June 2009). "Q&A Part II: Alternatives to measuring risk". Financial News.
  69. ^ Lemaire, Maurice. Mechanics and uncertainty. John Wiley & Sons, 2014.
  70. ^ Cooke, D., & Logan, C. (2021). Violent extremism: The practical assessment and management of risk. In Terrorism Risk Assessment Instruments (pp. 99-115). IOS Press.
  71. ^ Kushal, Tazim Ridwan Billah, and Mahesh S. Illindala. "Decision Support Framework for Resilience-Oriented Cost-Effective Distributed Generation Expansion in Power Systems." IEEE Transactions on Industry Applications 57.2 (2020): 1246-1254.
  72. ^ Cornwell, John (29 April 2007). "Random thoughts on the road to riches". The Sunday Times.
  73. ^ Douady, Raphael; Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (October 2010). "Statistical Undecidability" (PDF). data science assn. Retrieved 3 December 2020.
  74. ^ Taleb, N. N. (2009). Errors, robustness, and the fourth quadrant. International Journal of Forecasting, 25(4), 744–59
  75. ^ Taleb, The Black Swan, pg 207
  76. ^ Geman, D.; Geman, H.; Taleb, N. N. (2015). "Tail risk constraints and maximum entropy". Entropy. 17 (6): 3724. arXiv:1412.7647. Bibcode:2015Entrp..17.3724G. doi:10.3390/e17063724. S2CID 2273464.
  77. ^ Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2012). Antifragile: Things That Gain from Disorder. Random House.
  78. ^ RonPaulLibertyReport (19 May 2017). "Black Swans And Interventionistas ... With Special Guest Nassim Nicholas Taleb". Archived from the original on 17 November 2021 – via YouTube.
  79. ^ "Ron Paul Liberty Report, 03/15/18". 16 March 2018. Archived from the original on 19 March 2018. Retrieved 24 March 2018.
  80. ^ "Skin in the Game – Ralph Nader Radio Hour". ralphnaderradiohour.com. 10 March 2018. Archived from the original on 22 May 2020. Retrieved 24 March 2018.
  81. ^ Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2018). Skin in the Game: Hidden Asymmetries in Daily Life – Nassim Nicholas Taleb – Google Books. Random House Publishing. ISBN 978-0425284629. Retrieved 11 April 2018.
  82. ^ "Getting Under Nassim Nicholas Taleb's Skin". gcallah.github.io.
  83. ^ "A Clash of Two Systems". Medium. 19 April 2022.
  84. ^ Taleb, N. N. (July 2018). (Anti) Fragility and Convex Responses in Medicine. In International Conference on Complex Systems (pp. 299–325). Springer, Cham.
  85. ^ Norman, Joseph; Bar-Yam, Yaneer; Nicholas Taleb, Nassim (26 January 2020). "Systemic risk of pandemic via novel pathogens – Coronavirus: A note" (PDF). New England Complex Systems Institute.
  86. ^ "The Pandemic Isn't a Black Swan but a Portent of a More Fragile Global System". The New Yorker. 21 April 2020.
  87. ^ Brown, Aaron (2007). "Strong language on black swans". American Statistician. 61 (3): 195–97. doi:10.1198/000313007x220011. S2CID 120488719.
  88. ^ Black Swan, 2nd, edition, p. 353
  89. ^ Westfall, P.; Hilbe, J. (2007). "The Black Swan: Praise and Criticism". American Statistician. 61 (3): 193–194. doi:10.1198/000313007x219383. S2CID 120638553.
  90. ^ Kay, John (27 April 2007). "Books: Unimaginable horror [Book review of The Black Swan]". Financial Times. Retrieved 7 May 2016.
  91. ^ Freedman, David A. "Black Ravens, White Shoes, and Case Selection" (PDF). Berkeley. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  92. ^ Taleb, Nassim Nicholas (2013). "What We Learn From Firefighters". Edge Foundation, Inc. Retrieved 7 May 2015. Simply, one observation in 10,000, that is, one day in 40 years, can explain the bulk of the "kurtosis", a measure of what we call "fat tails", that is, how much the distribution under consideration departs from the standard Gaussian, or the role of remote events in determining the total properties. For the U.S. stock market, a single day, the crash of 1987, determined 80% of the kurtosis. The same problem is found with interest and exchange rates, commodities, and other variables. The problem is not just that the data had "fat tails", something people knew but sort of wanted to forget; it was that we would never be able to determine "how fat" the tails were. Never. The implication is that those tools used in economics that are based on squaring variables (more technically, the Euclidean, or L2 norm), such as standard deviation, variance, correlation, regression, or value-at-risk, the kind of stuff you find in textbooks, are not valid scientifically (except in some rare cases where the variable is bounded). The so-called "p values" you find in studies have no meaning with economic and financial variables. Even the more sophisticated techniques of stochastic calculus used in mathematical finance do not work in economics except in selected pockets.
  93. ^ Lund, Robert (2007). "Revenge of the white swan". American Statistician. 61 (4): 189–92. doi:10.1198/000313007X219374. S2CID 122874205.
  94. ^ Gangahar, Anuj (16 April 2008). "Mispriced risk tests market faith in a prized formula". Financial Times.
  95. ^ "Option traders use (very) sophisticated heuristics, never the Black–Scholes–Merton formula" (PDF). Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization.
  96. ^ "Author Nassim Taleb examines rare events, risk management and his book, "The Black Swan"". Charlie Rose. Charlie Rose. Retrieved 21 December 2016. When my book came out, I started listening to the criticism, and I realized that nobody attacked my central point. I thought that someone would come up with some convincing argument. Two, three months after the publication, I went for the jugular. I said, this thing is going to go. And, in fact – so.
  97. ^ "Overheard". The Wall Street Journal. 14 February 2009.
  98. ^ Kneale, Klaus (14 October 2009). "Forbes List of the Top Business Thinkers".
  99. ^ "The 50 Most Influential People in Global Finance". Topics.bloomberg.com. Archived from the original on 16 July 2012. Retrieved 7 May 2015.
  100. ^ "GDI – Think Tank". Gottlieb Duttweiler Institute.
  101. ^ "Nassim Taleb: Commencement Address 2016" (PDF). American University of Beirut. 27 May 2016. Retrieved 10 June 2016.
Wikimedia Commons has media related to Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Wikiquote has quotations related to Nassim Nicholas Taleb.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Nassim_Nicholas_Taleb&oldid=1236905522"