Jump to content

2017 Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election: Difference between revisions

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Browse history interactively
← Previous editNext edit →
Content deleted Content added
VisualWikitext
Undid revision 759666951 by Terabar (talk)
Undid revision 759673134 by TenderNuke (talk) Revert Vandalism. Last Warning.
Line 396: Line 396:
! width="70" class="wikitable" | [[Indian National Congress|INC]]
! width="70" class="wikitable" | [[Indian National Congress|INC]]
! width="70" class="wikitable" | [[List of political parties in India|Others]]
! width="70" class="wikitable" | [[List of political parties in India|Others]]
|-

| March 2016
| <ref>{{cite news|title=ABP News Opinion Poll: BSP to win 185 seats if UP polls are held now|url=http://www.abplive.in/india-news/abp-news-opinion-poll-bsp-to-win-185-seats-if-up-polls-are-held-now-306920|accessdate=4 January 2017|work=ABP Live|date=16 March 2016}}</ref>
| [[ABP News]] Opinion Poll
|185
|120
|80
|13
|5
|-
|-
| Jul-Aug 2016
| Jul-Aug 2016

Revision as of 15:31, 12 January 2017

Uttar Pradesh legislative assembly election, 2017
← 2012 11 February - 8 March 2017 2022 →
All 403 seats of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly
202 seats needed for a majority
  Majority party Minority party Third party
  File:Mayawati.JPG File:BJP election symbol.svg
Leader Akhilesh Yadav Kumari Mayawati Not Declared
Party SP BSP BJP
Leader's seat MLC None -
Last election 224, 29.13% 80, 25.91%[1] 47, 15%
Seats before 97 206 51
  Fourth party Fifth party
 
Leader Sheila Dikshit Jayant Chaudhary
Party INC RLD
Leader's seat None None
Last election 28, 11.63% 09, 2.33%
Seats before 22 10
Chief Minister before election

Akhilesh Yadav
Samajwadi Party

Elected Chief Minister

TBD

The 17th Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election will be held from February 11 to March 8, 2017 in 7 phases. In the previous election in 2012, the Samajwadi Party won a majority and formed government in the leadership of Akhilesh Yadav.

Background

Electoral process changes

In January 2016, the Election Commission of India published updated electoral rolls in all 403 assembly segments.[2] In July 2016, Election Commission decided to increase the number of polling booths in Uttar Pradesh for the 2017 Assembly elections. New polling centres will be planned in the constituencies having more than 1,500 registered voters as well as polling booths in six constituencies of Muzaffarnagar, Budhana, Purkazi, Khatoli, Charthawal and Midanpur to be raised from 1,769 to 1,819 booths.[3][4] Voter assistance booths would be set up and photo slip of voters in a new design would be sent to them. First time, the Form-2B would contain the photograph of the candidates and their nationality.

Voter-verified paper audit trail (VVPAT) machines will be used along with EVM in 20 assembly constituencies covering 14 districts including Varanasi,[5] Ghaziabad[6] and Bareilly constituency.[7][8]

Assembly constituencies of Uttar Pradesh having VVPAT facility with EVMs[9]
Lucknow West Lucknow North Lucknow East Agra Cantonment
Agra South Aligarh Bareilly Govind Nagar
Arya Nagar Ghaziabad Meerut Moradabad
Saharanpur Nagar Allahabad North Allahabad South Ayodhya
Gorakhpur Urban Jhansi Nagar Varanasi North Varanasi Cantonment

As per the special summary revision of electoral rolls, there are a total of 14.05 crore voters in Uttar Pradesh as of January 2015.[10]

Final voters list for Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly election 2017
S.No Group of voters Voters population
1 Male 7.7 crore
2 Female 6.3 crore
3 Third Gender 6,983
Total Voters 14.05 crore

Other political developments[relevant?]

In May 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi launched 11 solar-powered “e-boats” in Varanasi, in a move to reach out to Mallah community. On 26 December 2016, U.P Government government cleared the inclusion of 17 Other Backward Castes- Kahar, Kashyap, Kewat, Nishad, Bind, Bhar, Prajapati, Rajbhar, Batham, Gauriya, Turha, Majhi, Mallah, Kumhar, Dheemar, Dheewar and Machhua, in the Scheduled Castes (SC) category.

Caste and religion data

As per 2011 census, Dalits constitute 21.1% of Uttar Pradesh population.[11][12][13] Mallah community is divided in 27 sub-castes. Other Backward Classes (OBCs) constitute 40% of U.P population.[14][15][16][17] There are 200-odd non-Yadav OBCs in U.P. In Uttar Pradesh, Muslims are divided into 68 castes and sub-castes, 35 of them are OBCs. Forward castes constitute around 19% of Uttar Pradesh population,[18] in which Brahmins are 10% and Thakurs are 7.6%.[19][20] For accurate caste population data in India, Government of India has not publicly released Socio Economic and Caste Census 2011 caste population data for every single non-SC/ST castes (General castes, OBC/EBCs) in India.[21][22][23][24][25]

Castes of Uttar Pradesh [26][27][28][29][30]
Caste Population (%) Notes
OBC 40% Yadavs -8%
Lodhi -7%
Jats -1.7%
KUSHWAHA(MAURYA, SHAKYA, KOERI, KACHHI, SAINI) -4%
Kurmi - 3%
Other OBCs(including Sunars, other Hindu OBCs) -16%
Dalits(SCs) 21.1% Jatavs Dalits -11%
Non-Jatav Dalits(includes Pasis, Mallah and Valmikis) -9%
Tribals (STs) 0.8%
Forward caste 19% Brahmins -10%
Thakur - 7.6%
Vaishya - 2%
Tyagi and Bhumihar -1%
Muslims 19.3%
Christians 0.18%

Political developments

Bahujan Samaj Party

It is speculated that 2017 elections in Uttar Pradesh will be a close contest between Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP)[31][32] and Bharatiya Janata Party.[33][34] From August 2016, BSP held series of ‘Sarvajan Hitay, Sarvajan Sukhay’ rallies starting from Agra, followed by mega rallies in Azamgarh, Allahabad and Saharanpur.[35][36] In these rallies, Mayawati attacked misrule of Samajwadi Party, its communal politics and Bharatiya Janata Party's unfulfilled promises of achhe din.[37][38]

BSP has given more than 100 tickets to Muslim candidates, highest in the state till date.[39] In August 2016, four Muslim MLAs, 3 from Congress (Nawab Kazim Ali Khan, Dilnawaz Khan, Mohammad Muslim Khan) and 1 from Samajwadi Party (Nawazish Alam Khan) and also a former Bharatiya Janata Party minister Awadesh Kumar Verma joined BSP.[40][41] It is speculated that Muslims may prefer BSP over SP in the upcoming elections.[42]

Bharatiya Janata Party

BJP is trying to woo voters in Uttar Pradesh with Ram Janmabhoomi agenda.[43] It is rumored that Mayawati is trying her best to gain from BJP's political activists, by making them join BSP, meanwhile alleging BJP of accepting the rejected politicians of BSP.[44] On the other hand, political leaders from other parties have joined BJP in the run-up to the elections.[45][46]

Indian National Congress

Congress declared Sheila Dikshit, three-time chief minister of Delhi as it CM candidate for 2017 elections. The duo of Raj Babbar, current president of Uttar Pradesh Congress Committee and Mrs. Dikshit may prove beneficial to Congress. Priyanka Gandhi is also expected to take part in Congress rallies, but it still remains a rumor. Veteran leader Rita Bahuguna joshi`s defection to BJP may impact its outreach to the powerful Brahmin community of UP. Congress party has hired Prashant Kishor, a famous poll strategist, to help the party to come back to power in Uttar Pradesh.[47] However, general feeling is that the things are not working as planned and there is rift between Congress Party and Prashant Kishor's team.[48]

Rahul Gandhi, the party Vice-President, in a bid to connect with farmers, held Kisan Yatra (farmers' rally), covering majority of constituencies, promising partial waiver of electricity bills and loans.

Samajwadi Party

On 28 March 2016, Samajwadi Party released its first candidate list of 142 contestants for Uttar Pradesh Assembly Elections 2017. Party was expected to return into power in the forthcoming elections though the family clashes has wrecked its image.

In June 2016, Akhilesh Yadav Government undertook the seventh and last cabinet expansion.[49]

On 30 December 2016, Mulayam Singh Yadav expelled his son Akhilesh Yadav and his cousin Ram Gopal Yadav from the party for six years on the grounds of indiscipline but re-inducted within 24 hours after a meet of 200 of the party’s 229 MLAs at Akhilesh residence.[50] The ruling Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh split down the middle with the faction headed by Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav removing Mulayam Singh Yadav as party chief and appointing him in his place at a convention in which the group claimed support of the majority of legislators and district units.[51]

Election issues

The most important issue is said to be law and order of the state[52][53] and as in every election caste and religion will play the key reasons for voters.[54] However, with the Supreme Court ruling that prohibited use of religion, caste or language to solicit votes, candidates wil have to refrain from communal politics. BJP may try to pop up the Army's alleged surgical strikes across LOC to invoke nationalist spirit. Instead of playing caste politics, focus of Congress this time has been on farmers' plight and waiver of loans. SP and BSP hope to win from their established vote bank electorate of minorities, scheduled castes and specific caste communities.

Another major issue which will impact this election is the Demonetization move, thereby the result of the election will even say to give a referendum on the acceptability of that decision.

Schedule

Election schedule

Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh will be held between 11 February to 8 March 2017. The term of the present government will end on 27 May 2017.[55]

On 4 January 2017, The Election Commission of India announced the election schedule to the Legislative Assembly of Uttar Pradesh along with the other four state (Goa, Manipur, Punjab and Uttarakhand) which are due for an election. The entire election is scheduled into 7 phases.

Phase Name of District No. of Assembly Constituencies
Phase-1 (11 February 2017) Shamli 3
Muzaffarnagar 6
Baghpat 3
Meerut 7
Ghaziabad 5
Gautam Buddha Nagar 3
Hapur 3
Bulandshahar 7
Aligarh 7
Mathura 5
Hathras 3
Agra 9
Firozabad 5
Etha 4
Kasganj 3
Phase-2 (15 February 2017) Saharanpur 7
Bijnor 8
Moradabad 6
Sambhal 4
Rampur 5
Bareilly 9
Amroha 4
Pilibhit 4
Kheri 8
Shahjahanpur 6
Badaun 6
Phase-3 (19 February 2017) Farrukhabad 4
Hardoi 8
Kannauj 3
Mainpuri 4
Etawah 3
Auraiya 3
Kanpur Dehat 4
Kanpur Nagar 10
Unnao 6
Lucknow 9
Barabanki 6
Sitapur 9
Phase-4 (23 February 2017) Pratapgarh 7
Kaushambi 3
Allahabad 12
Jalaun 3
Jhansi 4
Lalitpur 2
Mahoba 2
Hamirpur 2
Banda 4
Chitrakoot 2
Fatehpur 6
Rae Bareli 6
Phase-5 (27 February 2017) Balrampur 4
Gonda 7
Faizabad 5
Ambedkar Nagar 5
Bahraich 7
Shrawasti 2
Siddharthnagar 5
Basti 5
Sant Kabir Nagar 3
Amethi 4
Sultanpur 5
Phase-6 (4 March 2017) Maharajganj 5
Kushi Nagar 7
Gorakhpur 9
Deoria 7
Azamgarh 10
Mau 4
Ballia 7
Phase-7 (8 March 2017) Ghazipur 7
Varanasi 8
Chandauli 5
Mirzapur 4
Bhadohi 3
Sonbhadra 4
Jaunpur 9

Opinion polls

Various organisations/agencies will be conducting opinions polls to predict voter intentions in the upcoming legislative assembly elections.

Date Ref Polling org./Agency bgcolor="Template:Bahujan Samaj Party/meta/color" | bgcolor="Template:Bharatiya Janata Party/meta/color" | bgcolor="Template:Indian National Congress/meta/color" |
BSP BJP SP INC Others
March 2016 [56] ABP News Opinion Poll 185 120 80 13 5
Jul-Aug 2016 [57] ABP News-Lokniti 103-113 124-134 141-151 8-14 6-12
Aug 2016 [58] India TV-CVoter 95-111 134-150 133-149 5-13 4-12
Oct 2016 [59] India Today-Axis 115-124 170-183 94-103 8-12 2-6
Jan 2017 [60] ABP News-Lokniti-CSDS 93-103 129-139 141-151 13-19 N/A
Jan 2017 [61] India Today-Axis 79-85 206-216 92-97 5-7 7-11

See also

References

  1. ^ of India, Election Commission. "STATISTICAL REPORT ON GENERAL ELECTION, 2012 TO THE LEGISLATIVE ASSEMBLY OF UTTAR PRADESH" (PDF). eci.nic.in.
  2. ^ "2017 assembly polls: Election Commission to begin election process April next". Indianexpress.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  3. ^ "Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections 2017: Election Commission to increase polling booths - The Hindu". Thehindu.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  4. ^ "Election Commission 2017 उत्तर प्रदेश चुनाव में बढ़ाएगी वोटिंग सेंटर्स - Jansatta". Jansatta.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  5. ^ "738 booths of Cantonment, City North to have Voter verified paper audit trai machines".
  6. ^ Now, verify your vote using an ‘audit machine’
  7. ^ "AnnexureVI VVPAT Page 24" (PDF).
  8. ^ "Machines to rule out fraud, confusion at upcoming UP polls".
  9. ^ "20 Uttar Pradesh assembly constituencies to witness ATM-like receipt after casting vote".
  10. ^ "Uttar Pradesh now has 14 cr voters".
  11. ^ Shailvee Sharda. "Job better than aid, say UP dalits - Times of India". The Times of India. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  12. ^ "UP polls: Why is BJP hesitating in announcing its CM candidate?". Indiatvnews.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  13. ^ "Half of India's dalit population lives in 4 states - Times of India".
  14. ^ "UP has the highest OBC population in all Indian states".
  15. ^ "Why smaller castes could hold the key to power in 2017 UP Assembly polls".
  16. ^ "Survey puts OBC population at 40 pc".
  17. ^ "OBC population in UP stands at 7 crore".
  18. ^ "Uttar Pradesh polls: BSP, SP and BJP leaving no stone unturned to come up trumps".
  19. ^ "The angry Thakurs of Uttar Pradesh".
  20. ^ "BJP seeks new Thakur leader to replace Rajnath Singh in UP".
  21. ^ "'Centre not releasing caste census data because it doesn't want to face Mandal II'". Thehindubusinessline.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  22. ^ "Centre releases census data on religion, hides caste figures". Dnaindia.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  23. ^ "Before releasing caste numbers, the government needs to account for discrepancies in data". Scroll.in. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  24. ^ "Why Is Modi Govt. Hiding Socio-Economic Caste Census 2011 Data?". Youthkiawaaz.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  25. ^ "Caste-based Census data should be made public, demand Bihar CM Nitish Kumar - The Hindu". Thehindu.com. Retrieved 6 July 2016.
  26. ^ "How BJP is changing the caste arithmetic in Uttar Pradesh - Latest News & Updates at Daily News & Analysis". 1 May 2014.
  27. ^ "Archived copy". Archived from the original on 8 March 2016. Retrieved 2016-02-15. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  28. ^ "The Scramble For Dalit Votes In Uttar Pradesh".
  29. ^ "UP govt declares holiday on Maharana Pratap Jayanti to 'woo' Thakur voters".
  30. ^ "Brahmins population in India".
  31. ^ Rana, Uday (19 May 2016). "BSP's chances look very strong, feels Congress". The Times of India. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  32. ^ "Mayawati sees good omen for 2017". Rediff. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  33. ^ Sharma, Sandipan (18 November 2015). "No chance of a UP grand alliance: It will be a BJP-BSP contest in the 2017 state polls". Firstpost. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  34. ^ Ghosh, Shubham (17 March 2016). "UP polls 2017: Survey shows BJP, BSP will have an intense battle in Purvanchal". www.oneindia.com. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  35. ^ "In First Rally, Mayawati Plays Up To Dalits, They Say BSP Is 'Anti-Virus'".
  36. ^ "After mega rally, BSP chief jumps to top of Twitter trends".
  37. ^ "Mayawati woos Dalits, Muslims at Saharanpur rally; accuses BJP of engineering communal tension in UP".
  38. ^ "Mayawati looks beyond Uttar Pradesh for BSP's expansion".
  39. ^ "Crafting the bahujan rainbow".
  40. ^ RASHID, OMAR. "Boost for Mayawati as 4 Muslim MLAs join BSP".
  41. ^ "BSP RECEIVED A SHOT IN THE ARM".
  42. ^ "U.P. Muslims may prefer BSP over SP". The Hindu. Retrieved 4 January 2016.
  43. ^ "BJP to contest UP polls on development agenda: Union Min".
  44. ^ "Eye on Uttar Pradesh polls, BJP showcases Pakistan Dalit minister who 'came back disillusioned'".
  45. ^ "Rita Bahuguna Joshi joins BJP".
  46. ^ "6 MLAs from join BJP".
  47. ^ "Prashant Kishor promises Congress CM". Infoelection. Retrieved 1 January 2017.
  48. ^ "Prashant Kishor to part ways with Congress?". Infoelection. Retrieved 1 January 2017.
  49. ^ "UP CM Akhilesh Yadav carries out cabinet expansion before 2017 polls".
  50. ^ "Samajwadi pari-war: Will it make history or break?". newsbytesapp.com. Retrieved 4 January 2017.
  51. ^ "Uttar Pradesh Samajwadi Family Feud". Infoelection. Retrieved 1 January 2017.
  52. ^ Verma, Saurabh (30 March 2016). "How The Law And Order Situation In U.P. Could Cost The Samajwadi Party During Elections". Youth Ki Awaaz. Retrieved 19 May 2016.
  53. ^ "UP govt needs to look into law and order". State Times. 4 June 2016. Retrieved 4 June 2016.
  54. ^ "Uttar Pradesh Assembly Election Issues 2017". Infoelections.
  55. ^ "Announcement: Schedule for the General Elections to the Legislative Assemblies of Goa, Manipur, Punjab, Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh" (PDF). Election Commission of India. 4 January 2017. Retrieved 4 January 2017.
  56. ^ "ABP News Opinion Poll: BSP to win 185 seats if UP polls are held now". ABP Live. 16 March 2016. Retrieved 4 January 2017.
  57. ^ "BJP chasing SP in UP, BSP runners up, Congress a distant straggler". ABP News. 22 August 2016. Retrieved 23 December 2016.
  58. ^ "India TV-CVoter survey: BJP, SP neck and neck, BSP third in UP assembly poll stakes". India TV. 14 September 2016. Retrieved 23 December 2016.
  59. ^ "India Today-Axis Opinion Poll for Uttar Pradesh: BJP dream run to continue, but a hung Assembly likely". India Today. 12 October 2016. Retrieved 23 December 2016.
  60. ^ "ABP न्यूज ओपिनियन पोल: अखिलेश-मुलायम के बीच होती रही 'दंगल' तो बीजेपी चुनाव में करेगी सबको चित!". ABP News. 3 January 2017. Retrieved 4 January 2017.
  61. ^ "Modis BJP weathers demonetisation storm, set to win Uttar Pradesh: Key takeaways from India Today-Axis Opinion Poll". Retrieved 5 January 2017.
Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=2017_Uttar_Pradesh_Legislative_Assembly_election&oldid=759674179"