2012 Egyptian presidential election

Presidential elections were held in Egypt in 2012, with the first round on 23 and 24 May 2012 and the second on 16 and 17 June. They were the first democratic presidential elections in Egyptian history. The Muslim Brotherhood declared early 18 June 2012, that its candidate, Mohamed Morsi, won Egypt's presidential election, which would be the first victory of an Islamist as head of state in the Arab world.[1] It was the second presidential election in Egypt's history with more than one candidate, following the 2005 election, and the first presidential election after the 2011 Egyptian revolution which ousted president Hosni Mubarak, during the Arab Spring. However, Morsi's presidency was brief and short-lived, and he later faced massive protests for and against his rule, only to be ousted in a military coup in July that year.

2012 Egyptian presidential election

← 2005 23–24 May 2012 (first round)
16–17 June 2012 (second round)
2014 →
Turnout46.42% (first round)
51.85% (second round)
 
Candidate Mohamed Morsi Ahmed Shafik
Party Freedom and Justice Independent
Popular vote 13,230,131 12,347,380
Percentage 51.73% 48.27%

Second round results by governorate

Head of state before election

Mohamed Hussein Tantawi
Chairman of the Military Council
Independent

Elected Head of state

Mohamed Morsi
Freedom and Justice

In the first round, with a voter turnout of 46%, the results were split between five major candidates: Mohamed Morsi (25%), Ahmed Shafik (24%), Hamdeen Sabahi (21%), Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh (17%), and Amr Moussa (11%), with the remaining 2% split between several other candidates. The elections set the stage for the divisions that were to follow, along sharia and secular lines, and those opposed to and those supporting the former political elite. Islamist candidates Morsi and Fotouh won roughly 42% of the vote, while the remaining three secular candidates won 56% of the vote. Candidates Shafik and Moussa held positions under the Mubarak regime and won 35% of the vote, while Sabahi was a prominent dissident during the Sadat and Mubarak regimes.[2]

Following the second round, with a voter turnout of 52%, on 24 June 2012, Egypt's election commission announced that Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi had won Egypt's presidential elections. Morsi won by a narrow margin over Ahmed Shafik, the final prime minister under deposed President Hosni Mubarak. The commission said Morsi took 51.7% of the vote versus 48.3% for Shafik.[3] Morsi was sworn in on 30 June 2012. To date, this is the last (and only) presidential election in Egyptian history which is broadly considered to have been democratically free and fair.[4] Morsi's victory also marked the first time civilians ruled Egypt since the 1952 coup.

Rules

edit

The rules for the election were released on 30 January 2012. Candidates had to be born in Egypt to Egyptian parents, may not have held dual nationality and may not have been married to a foreigner. To be nominated, they required the support of 30 Members of Parliament or 30,000 voters.[5] According to the electoral committee, the formal registration process for candidates started on 10 March[6] and ended on 8 April 2012 at 2 pm.[7]

Qualified candidates

edit
 
Ballot Paper, First round

23 candidates officially registered to contest the elections.[8] The Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) was expected to release the list of candidates who fulfil the legal requirements and are eligible for the presidency on 26 April.[9]

On 14 April 2012, the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) announced the disqualification of ten candidates: Omar Suleiman, Khairat El-Shater, Hazem Salah Abu Ismail, Ayman Nour, Ahmad Awad Al-Saidi, Mortada Mansour, Ibrahim El-Gharib, Mamdouh Qutb, Houssam Khayrat, and Ashraf Barouma.[10] Reasons for the disqualifications were not given, but the affected candidates were given 48 hours to appeal the decisions. Abu Ismail, El-Shater, and Suleiman's campaigns stated they would file appeals.[11] All appeals were rejected.[12]

On 23 April, the SCAF ratified the Corruption of Political Life Law (aka the Disenfranchisement Law),[13] which was passed by the People's Assembly on 12 April.[14] The new law stipulated that any individual who served as President of the Republic, vice president, prime minister, or a high-ranking NDP official during the ten years prior to 11 February 2011 (day of Hosni Mubarak's resignation) would not be eligible to run or hold public office for ten years, effective 11 February 2011.[15] The law disqualified presidential hopefuls Ahmed Shafik (prime minister) and Omar Suleiman (vice-president), but did not exclude Amr Mussa.[16]

On 25 April the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) accepted the appeal filed by Ahmed Shafik against its previous decision to exclude him from running for president.[17] Therefore, a total of 13 candidates were left standing in SPEC's final list.[18] The appeal also requested the new Parliamentary law be brought before the Supreme Constitutional Court to determine its constitutionality.[19]

On 16 May 2012, Mohammad Fawzi Issa announced his withdrawal from the race in support of Amr Moussa. His name however was not removed from the ballot paper as the official date of withdrawal had already passed.[20][21]

Main registered presidential candidates

edit
Photo Candidate Details Party affiliation Electoral Symbol
Independent
Ladder
 
Lawyer and labor activist. Former head of the Egyptian Center for Economic and Social Rights (ECESR), founding member of Hisham Mubarak Law Center (HMLC)
Independent
Tree
Ex-Secretary General of the International Union of Muslim Scholars and head of the Egyptian Association for Culture and Dialogue
Independent
Umbrella
 
Egyptian judge and the vice president of the Egyptian Court of Cassation. Tagammu nominee
Watch
Pyramid
 
Candidate of the Freedom and Justice Party. Replacement candidate after the elimination of Khairat El-Shater. Former Member of Parliament (2000–2005).
Balance
Independent
Sun
Founder of the Nasserist Dignity Party.
Eagle
Secretary general of the Arab Medical Union
Independent
(received the endorsement of Salafi Al-Nour Party,[22] moderate Islamic Al-Wasat Party[23] and Egyptian Current Party.)
Horse

Mohamed Morsi

edit

Mohamed Morsi was the chairman of the Freedom and Justice Party (FJP), a political party that was founded by the Muslim Brotherhood after the 2011 Egyptian revolution, since 30 April 2011.[24] He was a Member of Parliament from 2000 to 2005.

Morsi received a bachelor's and master's degree in engineering from Cairo University in 1975 and 1978. He received his PhD in engineering from the University of Southern California in 1982. He was an assistant professor at California State University, Northridge from 1982 to 1985. In 1985 he went back to Egypt to teach at Zagazig University.[25]

Kairat El-Shater had been put forward as candidate, but he was excluded from the race. As a replacement, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt fielded Mohamed Morsi, chairman of the Freedom and Justice Party, he faced Ahmed Shafik in a run-off vote on 16–17 June 2012.

On 24 June 2012, Egypt's election commission announced that Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohamed Morsi has won Egypt's presidential runoff. Morsi won by a narrow margin over Ahmed Shafik, the last prime minister under deposed leader Hosni Mubarak. The commission said Morsi took 51.7 percent of the vote versus 48.3 for Shafik.[3]

Ahmed Shafik

edit

Ahmed Shafik officially launched his presidential campaign on 2 November 2011. He was the last Prime Minister appointed by Hosni Mubarak after the beginning of the 2011 revolution in January. He resigned only three weeks after the deposition of the long-term president.[26] Shafik claims to be on good terms with the ruling Supreme Council of the Armed Forces.[27]

Shafik was first disqualified in the wake of the ratification of the Corruption of Political Life Law (aka the Disenfranchisement Law), which banned Mubarak-era PMs from nomination.[28] He immediately appealed the decision and on 25 April the Supreme Presidential Electoral Commission (SPEC) accepted his appeal, which puts him back in the race.[17]

Shafik collected 48.3 percent of the vote in the presidential runoff.

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh

edit

Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh, a doctor by practice and a former Muslim Brotherhood figure popular with Egyptian youths, declared his candidacy in May 2011. He was expelled from the Brotherhood for this decision on 20 June of that year, as it contradicted an earlier decision that the Brotherhood would not put forward a candidate in 2011.[29] The Muslim Brotherhood contradicted their initial position on 31 March 2012 when they put forward Khairat El-Shater as the Brotherhood's candidate and Mohamed Morsi as his replacement. Aboul Fotouh is well known for his staunch opposition to both the Sadat and Mubarak regimes, as well as his openness towards people of different political views. He was detained once during Sadat's rule and twice during Mubarak's rule. He promised to appoint a vice-president who is a youth revolutionary and to fill over half of the country's important posts with people under the age of 45.[30]

Despite coming from the moderate-to-liberal wing of the Islamist movement, Aboul Fotouh won the endorsement of the Salafi Al-Nour Party on 28 April 2012.[31]

Khaled Ali

edit

Khaled Ali announced his campaign on 27 February 2012 and applied for election on 8 April 2012 as an independent, with the support of 32 elected officials in both chambers of parliament. At 40 years old, he was the youngest candidate to enter the race. Ali is a prominent Egyptian lawyer and activist, known for his work advocating reform of corruption in the government and private sector and his promotion of social justice and labor rights. Al-Ahram Weekly called him a "legendary anti-corruption crusader".[32] In 2011 he won the "Egyptian Corruption Fighter" award.[33]

Many of Ali's supporters saw him as filling the void left by Mohamed ElBaradei's withdrawal.[34] Ali was not well known to the majority of Egyptians, and even those familiar with him tended to be surprised by his decision to run.[34] Ali's lack of experience as a politician was a concern, and many, even in the revolutionary movement, remained skeptical about his candidacy.[34] Critics argued that he was unlikely to win, and expressed concern that he could split the vote in a way that would sway the election towards representatives of the prior regime.[35]

Socialist Popular Alliance Party and Egyptian Socialists members told Egypt Independent that they are seriously considering backing Ali's candidacy. "Up until now, the situation is unclear. Khaled may be our choice. Some are proposing a potential partnership between Khaled Ali and Abouel Fotouh [where Ali can run as his deputy]," said Marwa Farouk, a member of the Popular Alliance.[36]

Mohammed Salim Al-Awa

edit

Mohammad Salim Al-Awa, an Islamic thinker, declared his candidacy on 14 June 2011.[37] The fact that Al-Awa and Aboul Fotouh belong to the same school of thought have led to press speculation about vote-splitting and the possibility of their uniting behind a single candidate. Aboul Fotouh recognized this possibility.[29]

Hisham Bastawisy

edit

Hisham Bastawisy is an Egyptian judge and the vice president of the Egyptian Court of Cassation. He was one of the leaders of the Egyptian opposition before and during the 2011 Egyptian revolution. He is running for the Egyptian presidential elections as a representative of the National Progressive Unionist Party (Tagammu).

Abu Al-Izz Al-Hariri

edit

Abu Al-Izz Al-Hariri is an Alexandria MP representing the Socialist Popular Alliance Party and The Revolution Continues Alliance. He filed his application on 13 March 2012.

Amr Moussa

edit

When asked about the rumors that he might run for the 2012 presidential elections, Amr Moussa refused to rule out the possibility of running for the office, leaving the door open to expectations. He argued that, "It's the right of every citizen that has the capacity and efficiency to aspire to any political office that would allow him to contribute to the service of his nation".[38] He further stated to the press that the qualities required of the president also apply to Gamal Mubarak, arguing that the citizenship, rights and obligations which apply to himself can also be applied to Gamal.[39] He also expressed appreciation for "the confidence expressed by many people when they talk about his candidacy for the Egyptian presidency, and expressed that the message reached him.".[40]

On 27 February 2011 he announced he would be running for president saying "God willing, I will be one of them."[41]

Hamdeen Sabahi

edit

Hamdeen Sabahi, the leader of the Nasserist Dignity Party officially filed his application on 6 April 2012.[42] He would later run for the presidency again two years later in the 2014 presidential election against Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, although the latter won a landslide victory, in an election described as a sham by 14 human rights groups who dismissed the results as "farcical".[43] They said the authorities had "trampled over even the minimum requirements for free and fair elections", stifling basic freedoms and eliminating key challengers.[44]

Minor candidates

edit

The remaining candidates are:[8]

  • Abdullah Alashaal, previous foreign minister assistant, retired ambassador. Authenticity Party nominee.
  • Mahmoud Houssam, as an independent with the support of 30,000 voters. President of the Beginning Party.
  • Houssam Khairallah, Democratic Peace Party nominee.
  • Mohammad Fawzi Issa, Democratic Generation Party nominee – withdrew on 16 May 2012 in favor of Amr Moussa. However, his name remained on the ballot paper as the official date of withdrawal had already passed.[21]

Disqualified candidates

edit

Main disqualified candidates

edit
Photo Candidate Details Party affiliation
A Salafist[45] and ultra-conservative figure.[46]
Independent
Founder of the liberal El-Ghad Party and leader of the Ghad El-Thawra Party.
Businessman and deputy supreme guide of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt
General and Director of the intelligence service (Mukhabarat), and briefly Vice President under Hosni Mubarak

Hazem Salah Abu Ismail

edit

Hazem Salah Abu Ismail is an independent, ultra-conservative[46] Salafi Islamist lawyer and politician.[45][47]

He rejects the idea of reconciling the religious law of Islam with personal freedom. He announced to make wearing the veil mandatory for Egyptian women in case of being elected.[48] He would ban the consumption of alcohol in public, even for tourists. Abu Ismail advocates the closure of gambling casinos, which are currently reserved for foreign visitors. Tourists wearing two-piece swimsuits should be arrested, according to Abu Ismail.[49] Moreover, he calls for the abolishment of the Shura Council, which is the upper house of the Egyptian parliament.[50]

By 28 March, Abu Ismail had collected 150,000 signatures supporting his candidacy. He was endorsed by 58 members of parliament,[51] the Salafist Scholars Shura Council,[52] and the Salafist Front.[53]

On 11 April, the State Council decided that the Ministry of Interior is obliged to provide documents verifying the nationality of the candidate's mother.[9] Thus, he would fail the premise that candidates, their spouses and their parents must hold exclusive Egyptian citizenship.[54] Abu Ismail denies the ministry's assertion and insists that his mother was exclusively Egyptian.[55] The threat to Abu Ismail's candidacy has triggered protests by his supporters.[55][56]

As of 14 April 2012, Abu-Ismail had been barred from the election by the Presidential Election Commission. He had been given 48 hours to appeal the decision.[57]

Ayman Nour

edit

Ayman Nour is the founder of Al-Ghad Party, leader of the Ghad El-Thawra Party and former candidate in the 2005 presidential elections in which he emerged as runner-up to the winning President Hosni Mubarak.

Ayman Nour was jailed in 2006 few months after the presidential elections when he was convicted in charges of forgery. He was later removed from the presidency of Al-Ghad Party. In February 2009, he was released from prison under an amnesty for health reasons. It has been alleged that his release from prison was due to US President Barack Obama demanding his release as a condition to meet with Mubarak.[58]

Ayman Nour's ability to candidate was doubtful, because of being an ex-convict and a former prisoner. However, he was pardoned by the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces (SCAF) and is thus not longer banned from political activity but eligible for the presidency.[59] Nour was also barred from running for the presidency by the Presidential Election Commission.[60]

Khairat El-Shater

edit

After initially deciding not to field a candidate, the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt announced on 31 March 2012 that its deputy supreme guide Khairat El-Shater would run in the election.[61][62]

El-Shater, who was convicted and imprisoned for several years during the rule of Mubarak, might be excluded from the race due to the ban of ex-convicts from political activity. The ruling military council had pardoned him, but a case was filed to eliminate him from the election, because the pardon has not been endorsed by a criminal court.[63] The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt fielded Mohamed Morsi, chairman of the Freedom and Justice Party, as an alternative candidate in case El-Shater's candidacy was invalidated.

As of 14 April 2012, El-Shater has been barred from the election by the Presidential Election Commission. His campaign has stated that they would appeal the decision.[57]

Omar Suleiman

edit

General Omar Suleiman, who was director of the General Intelligence Service and in 2011 shortly the last vice president under ousted President Hosni Mubarak, announced his candidacy on 6 April 2012.[64]

As of 14 April 2012, Suleiman has been barred from the election by the Presidential Election Commission. His campaign appealed the decision but was rejected.[57]

He left the country, reportedly going to Abu Dhabi, then to Germany, then finally to the United States for treatment. He died suddenly on 19 July 2012 while having medical tests done in Cleveland, Ohio. His body was taken home for burial. He was given a military funeral.

Minor disqualified candidates

edit

Withdrawn candidates

edit

Mohamed ElBaradei

edit

In November 2009 amidst the political controversy over the then prospective 2011 presidential election and the constitutional impediments placed in the faces of candidates under the amended Article 76 in the 2007 constitution and amidst speculation about then-president Hosni Mubarak's son Gamal running for the post, Mohamed ElBaradei decided to respond to the continuous pressing from people who asked him to run for the 2011 election.[65][66][67] ElBaradei said in a statement sent from his office in Vienna to Al-Shorouk newspaper that "He did not announce willingness or unwillingness to participate in the upcoming presidential election... and that he will clear his position on the presidency after November".[68] His office manager added:

Dr. ElBaradei is the Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency until the end of November. Therefore, he is currently devoted to his work and to address the important issues and topics that need to be addressed by the IAEA. So he did not take any decision regarding his future which will be decided in light of developments of the next phase.

At the same time, the New Wafd Party and other opposition political forces have announced that they are ready to support ElBaradei if he decided to run for the election. However, Mohamed ElBaradei stated that if he decides to run for the 2011 elections, he prefers to run as an independent candidate, rather than running as a candidate of any of the existing political parties.[69]

On 24 February 2010, ElBaradei met with several opposition leaders and notable intellects at his home in Cairo. The meeting was concluded with an announcement for the formation of a new non-party-political movement called "National Association for Change". The movement aims for general reforms in the political scene and mainly burke the Constitutional article#76 which places restrictions on true free presidential elections especially when it comes to independent candidates. Worth mentioning is that the banned political group the Muslim Brotherhood were represented by one of their key figures who attended the meeting however their stand in accepting a non-member of their group as a candidate is yet unclear. It is also unknown whether Amr Moussa the head of the Arab League who met with Elbaradei a day earlier will be part of the new movement.[70]

On 14 January 2012, he withdrew his candidacy in protest against the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces' alleged usurpation of power as he criticised the roadmap of transition to a civilian government following the 2011 revolution.[71] ElBaradei called it a "travesty" to elect a president before a new constitution has been drafted.[72]

AbdElazim Negm

edit

Abdelazim Negm is a professor of hydraulic engineering at Zagazig University and former vice dean for education and student affairs. He announced his candidacy on 4 March 2011, and withdrew it on 2 April 2012.[73][74]

Bothaina Kamel

edit

Bothaina Kamel, a media personality and pro-democracy activist, announced her candidacy in April 2011.[75] She dropped out of the race after failing to acquire the necessary number of signatures.[76]

Saad El-Soghayar

edit

Al-Sughayar headed to the High Presidential Elections Commission (HPEC) on Tuesday to collect the official application documents and learn of the requirements for running for presidency. A large crowd and folklore music accompanied Al-Sughayar and his band on their visit to the HPEC.

Upon his visit to the HPEC, the pop star said that he has collected 30,000 recommendations, which were declined due to his failure to fill in required documents prior the submission, reported the Middle East News Agency. He insisted that he will collect more than 55,000 recommendations. He added that his presidential agenda is ambitious and includes several priorities important to the common citizen, with a full healthcare-for-all system at the front line of these priorities.[77]

However, in a television show later that same day, he went to state he did not think that he was qualified for office and not even for any elected office. He added that he pulled this stunt to show the government and the SCAF that the criteria of 30,000 signatures is not a true obstacle to prevent non-serious candidates.[citation needed]

Opinion polls

edit

The first opinion poll conducted in Egypt post-Mubarak was conducted by YouGov. According to the YouGov survey of 1871 Egyptians between 15 and 20 February 2011, Almost half of all Egyptians (49%) believed that Amr Moussa, the secretary general of the Arab League, was the man most capable of leading the next Egyptian government. Other potential presidents, Ahmed Zewill (13%) & Ayman Nour, Mubarak's 2005 Presidential rival (1%), trailed Moussa by a huge margin. Almost 1 in 10 (9%) believed former vice president, Omar Sulieman, should be Egypt's new leader. The majority (81%) of Egyptians believed that the army would facilitate free and fair elections.[78]

An April 2011 survey of 1,000 Egyptians by Pew Research Center's Global Attitudes Project with a margin of error of four percentage points found that the most popular Egyptian politician was Amr Moussa with 41% of Egyptians viewing him as "very favourable," followed by Ayman Nour with 32% and Mohamed ElBaradei with 25%. Some 75% had a favourable view of the Muslim Brotherhood, but only 17% believed they should lead the next government.[79]

A poll conducted during the 2011 protests asking "who do you think should be the next President of Egypt?" showed Moussa in the lead, with 26% of respondents naming him.[80]

Conducted/
Published
Polling Organisation/
Client
Sample size Amr Moussa Abu Ismail Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh Omar Suleiman Ahmed Shafik Hamdeen Sabahi (DP) Mohamed Morsi (FJP) Salim Al-Awa Khairat El-Shater (FJP) Ayman Nour (Ghad) Kamal Ganzouri Mohamed ElBaradei (CP) other undecided
Feb 2011 YouGov[78] 1871 49% 9% 1% 1% 2% 24% 13%
9–20 March 2011 IPI[81] 615 37% 5% 1% 2% 37% 14%
Jun 2011 IPI[82] 800 32% 3% 3% 2% 42%
Jun/Jul 2011 Newsweek/
Daily Beast[83]
1008 16% 5% 4% 12% 2% 6% 4% 12% 13% 27%
" (3-way race) " 47% 16% 19% 18%
Aug 2011 ACPSS[84] 2,400 44% 5.2% 2% 9% 12% 5% 5% 6% 4% 7.8% 45%
Oct 2011 ACPSS[85] 2,400 44.8% 5.2% 1.6% 10.8% 13.2% 5.7% 4.7% 5.0% 3.5% 5.5% ?
Nov 2011 ACPSS[86] 2,400 38.9% 5.7% 1.5% 6.6% 8.5% 4.0% 5.7% 3.2% 2.9% 24.5% ?
Mar 2012 Al Ahram[87] 1,200 31.5% 22.7% 8.3% 9.3% 10.2% 5.0% 4.0% 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 4.0% ?
Apr 2012 Al Ahram[88] 1,200 30.7% 28.8% 8.5% 8.2% 7.5% 3.9% 3.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 6.5% ?
Apr 2012 Al-Masri Al-Yom[89] 2,034 6.4% 11.7% 12.4% 20.1% 2.2% 2.7% 1% 3.2% 2.2% 38.1%
Apr 2012 Al Ahram[90][91] 1,200 22.3% 21.4% 6.2% 31.7% 3.4% 4.3% 1.2% 4.3% 0.9% 4.3%
Apr 2012 Al Ahram[92] 1,200 40.9% 25.2% 10.5% 9.3% 0.9% 4.4% ? ?
Apr 2012 Al-Masri Al-Yom[93][94] 2,129 12.5% 15.5% 6% 5% 1.5% 5.1% 54.4%
Apr 2012 Al Ahram[95][96] 1,200 41.1% 27.3% 11.9% 7.4% 3.6% 5.7% 3.0% 12.3%
Apr 2012 Al Masry Al Youm[97] 2,100 14.1% 18.5% 5.3% 5% 3.6% 1.4% 2% 50.1%
April–May 2012 IDSC[98][99] 1,209 11% 11% 6% 2% 2% 42% 1
April–May 2012 Al Ahram[100][101] 1,200 39% 24% 17.2% 6.7% 7% 2.9% 3.2%
May 2012 Shorouk[102] 1,014 16% 20.8% 15.2% 5.7% 5.2% ? 3.4% 33.6%
May 2012 Al Masry Al Youm[103] 2,152 17% 15.7% 14.8% 6% 5.2% ? 3.7% 37.6%
May 2012 IDSC[104] 2,264 7% 9% 8% 2% 4% 2% 2 39% 3
May 2012 Al Ahram[105][106] 1,200 40.8% 17.8% 19.9% 7% 9.4% 2.7% 2.5% 15.3%
May 2012 Al Masry Al Youm[107] ? 16% 12.5% 16.3% 7% 8.8% 2% 37.4%
May 2012 IDSC[108][109] 1,390 11% 9% 12% 5% 6% 1% 2% 37% 4
May 2012 IDSC[110] 1,366 11% 7% 12% 7% 7% ? ? 35%
May 2012 Al Aharam[111] 1,200 31.7% 14.6% 22.6% 11.7% 14.8% 2.3% 1.7%5 ?
May 2012 Al Masry Al Youm[111] 2,287 14.6% 12.4% 19.3% 9.5% 9% 1% 1.2% 33%
May 2012 Shorouk[112] 1,185 15.1% 13.2% 15.8% 12.3% 9.5% 1.3% 2.9% 29.8%
May 2012 U of Maryland[113][114] 772 28% 32% 14% 8% 8% ? ? ?

Notes:
1 In addition, another 7% decided not to vote, 16% haven't decided if they will participate, and 3% refused to say their nominee
2 2% for Khaled Ali
3 In addition, another 8% will not vote, 6% did not disclose nominee, and 17% have yet to decide if they will participate.
4 In addition, another 6% will not vote, 3% did not disclose nominee, and 8% have yet to decide if they will participate.
5The article doesn't mention "other", but mentions Ali and Hariri, which are not placed on the table, getting 1.1% and 0.6% respectively (hence, total of 1.7).

Runoff polls

edit
candidate Al Ahram[105]

(28 Apr–1 May 2012)

Amr Moussa 63.8%
Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh 36.2%
Amr Moussa 77.6%
Mohamed Morsi 22.4%
Amr Moussa 68%
Ahmed Shafik 32%
Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh 52.9%
Ahmed Shafik 47.1%
Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh 74.7%
Mohamed Morsi 25.3%

Favorability ratings

edit

Unlike traditional preference polling, favorability ratings allow individuals to independently rate each candidate. This provides a comprehensive impression of a candidate's electorate appeal without vote splitting distortion, where votes divide between ideologically similar candidates in multi-candidate polls. Favorability indicates general candidate acceptance among voters, irrespective of final vote choice. The table uses the percentage of "Somewhat favorable" or "Very favorable" responses.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample size Amr Moussa Mohamed Hussein Tantawi Ayman Nour (Ghad) Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh Abu Ismail Mohamed ElBaradei (CP) Faiza Abou el-Naga Omar Suleiman Hosni Mubarak
Pew Research[115][116] March 19–April 10, 2012 1000 81% 63% 61% 58% 52% 48% 35%
Pew Research[117][118] March 24–April 7, 2011 1000 89% 90% 70% 57% 34% 13%

Results

edit
 
Results from the first round.
  Governorate won by Mohamed Morsi.
  Governorate won by Ahmed Shafik.
  Governorate won by Hamdeen Sabahi.
  Governorate won by Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh.
  Governorate won by Amr Moussa.

Percentage of votes received by candidate

  Mohamed Morsi (24.8%)
  Ahmed Shafik (23.7%)
  Hamdeen Sabahi (20.7%)
  Amr Moussa (11.1%)
  Other (2.2%)

On 24 June 2012, Egypt's election commission announced that Morsi had won the run-off.[3] Egypt's benchmark stock index celebrated Morsi's election by closing up 7.6 percent, its largest single-day gain in nine years.[119]

CandidatePartyFirst roundSecond round
Votes%Votes%
Mohamed MorsiFreedom and Justice Party5,764,95224.7813,230,13151.73
Ahmed ShafikIndependent5,505,32723.6612,347,38048.27
Hamdeen SabahiDignity Party4,820,27320.72
Abdel Moneim Aboul FotouhIndependent4,065,23917.47
Amr MoussaIndependent2,588,85011.13
Mohammad Salim Al-AwaIndependent235,3741.01
Khaled AliIndependent134,0560.58
Abu Al-Izz Al-HaririSocialist Popular Alliance Party40,0900.17
Hisham BastawisyNational Progressive Unionist Rally Party29,1890.13
Mahmoud HoussamIndependent23,9920.10
Mohammad Fawzi IssaDemocratic Generation Party23,8890.10
Houssam KhairallahDemocratic Peace Party22,0360.09
Abdullah AlashaalAuthenticity Party12,2490.05
Total23,265,516100.0025,577,511100.00
Valid votes23,265,51698.2825,577,51196.81
Invalid/blank votes406,7201.72843,2523.19
Total votes23,672,236100.0026,420,763100.00
Registered voters/turnout50,996,74646.4250,958,79451.85
Source: EISA

Second round results by governorate

edit
Governorate Valid votes Invalid votes Turnout % Morsi votes % Shafik votes %
Aswan 317,424 7,776 37.9 164,826 51.9 152,598 48.1
Asyut 901,539 26,837 44.6 554,519 61.5 347,020 38.5
Luxor 264,353 6,781 40.3 124,120 47.0 140,233 53.0
Alexandria 1,687,148 76,274 53.7 970,131 57.5 717,017 42.5
Ismailia 376,576 11,642 55.5 204,307 54.3 172,269 45.7
Red Sea 94,791 2,687 43.5 46,803 49.4 47,988 50.6
Beheira 1,548,271 45,043 49.4 907,377 58.6 640,894 41.4
Beni Suef 770,342 24,261 55.9 512,079 66.5 258,263 33.5
Port Said 239,890 13,577 58.1 109,768 45.8 130,122 54.2
Giza 2,263,425 82,263 54.8 1,351,526 59.7 911,899 40.3
South Sinai 24,742 733 40.8 12,286 49.7 12,456 50.3
Dakahlia 1,904,744 51,243 53.3 845,390 44.4 1,059,354 55.6
Damietta 461,403 14,569 55.9 258,475 56.0 202,928 44.0
Suez 205,963 7,550 56.0 129,229 62.7 76,734 37.3
Sohag 912,853 26,103 40.1 531,636 58.2 381,217 41.8
Al Sharqia 1,928,216 50,070 56.6 881,581 45.7 1,046,635 54.3
North Sinai 94,964 2,401 46.9 58,415 61.5 36,549 38.5
Gharbia 1,575,883 45,103 55.8 583,748 37.0 992,135 63.0
Faiyum 761,330 23,091 50.6 591,995 77.8 169,335 22.2
Cairo 3,399,110 158,687 54.8 1,505,103 44.3 1,894,007 55.7
Qalyubia 1,460,537 42,562 57.9 609,253 41.7 851,284 58.3
Qena 514,089 15,179 33.1 285,894 55.6 228,195 44.4
Kafr el-Sheikh 768,005 23,223 42.6 425,514 55.4 342,491 44.6
Monufia 1,323,265 33,949 61.5 376,677 28.5 946,588 71.5
Minya 1,332,677 43,607 51.8 858,557 64.4 474,120 35.6
Matrouh 81,242 1,629 40.6 65,095 80.1 16,147 19.9
New Valley 63,009 1,320 45.4 39,934 63.4 23,075 36.6
expatriates 301,720 5,092 225,893 74.9 75,827 25.1
Total 13,230,131 51.7 12,347,380 48.3
Source:[120]

Analysis

edit

Pre-election polling showed Moussa to have a substantially higher favorability rating (81%) than Fotouh (58%), and to be preferred head-to-head against Morsi (78%), Shafik (68%), and Fotouh (64%). Fotouh in turn was preferred head-to-head over Morsi (75%) and Shafik (53%), making Moussa the likely Condorcet winner, and Fotouh the runner-up. However, due to the use of the two-round system, and vote-splitting between the three moderate / non-Islamist candidates,[121] Moussa came in 5th, and Fotouh came in 4th, and both were eliminated.[122][123][124] The two candidates who qualified for the runoff election, Morsi (24.8%) and Shafik (23.7%), were both considered polarizing.[121][124][122] This also would apply to related systems like Contingent vote or Supplementary vote.

Under first-past-the-post voting, Morsi would also have won, as he received the most votes in the first round.

Under Instant-runoff voting, Top Four or Final Five Voting, and related systems, Moussa would also have been eliminated before the other four candidates,[125] though it is unknown how the ballots would transfer and who would be eliminated next.


Claims of election interference

edit

Allegations have arisen that the interior ministry handed out over 900,000 ID cards to Egyptian soldiers so that they could vote for Shafik in the first round, which would be a major campaign violation. Sabahi asked for the Egyptian election to be temporarily suspended until an investigation was carried out.[126][127] The government rejected the appeal.[128]

In August 2013, former Israeli negotiator Yossi Beilin wrote that an Egyptian official had told him that the true results had Shafik winning, but the military gave the presidency to Morsi out of fear of unrest.[129][130]

Presidential powers

edit

Shortly after it became apparent that Morsi would win the election, SCAF made the following changes to the 30 March 2011 Egypt Constitutional Declaration in order to define the powers of the new president:

- Article 30: In situation that parliament is dissolved the president will be vowed into office in front of High Constitutional Court's General Assembly.

- Article 53: The incumbent SCAF members are responsible for deciding on all issues related to the armed forces including appointing its leaders and extending the terms in office of the aforesaid leaders. The current head of the SCAF is to act as commander-in-chief of the armed forces and minister of defense until a new constitution is drafted.

- Article 53/1: The president can only declare war after the approval of the SCAF.

- Article 53/2: If the country faces internal unrest which requires the intervention of the armed forces, the president can issue a decision to commission the armed forces – with the approval of the SCAF – to maintain security and defend public properties. Current Egyptian law stipulates the powers of the armed forces and its authorities in cases where the military can use force, arrest or detain.

- Article 56 B: The SCAF will assume the authorities set out in sub-article 1 of Article 56 as written in the 30 March 2011 Constitutional Declaration until a new parliament is elected.

- Article 60 B: If the constituent assembly encounters an obstacle that would prevent it from completing its work, the SCAF within a week will form a new constituent assembly- to author a new constitution within three months from the day of the new assembly's formation. The newly drafted constitution will be put forward after 15 days of the day it is completed, for approval by the people through a national referendum. The parliamentary elections will take place one month from the day the new constitution is approved by the national referendum.

- Article 60 B1: If the president, the head of SCAF, the prime minister, the Supreme Council of the Judiciary or a fifth of the constituent assembly find that the new constitution contains an article or more which conflict with the revolution's goals and its main principles or which conflict with any principle agreed upon in all of Egypt's former constitutions, any of the aforementioned bodies may demand that the constituent assembly revises this specific article within 15 days. Should the constituent assembly object to revising the contentious article, the article will be referred to the High Constitutional Court (HCC) which will then be obliged to give its verdict within seven days. The HCC's decision is final and will be published in the official gazette within three days from the date of issuance.

- Article 38 will be replaced with: "The parliamentary elections will be conducted in accordance to the law."[131]

See also

edit

Notes

edit

References

edit
  1. ^ El Deeb, Sarah; Keath, Lee (17 June 2012). "Islamist claims victory in Egypt president vote". Associated Press. Retrieved 18 June 2012.
  2. ^ "Mursi-Shafiq presidential showdown puts Egypt revolutionaries in pickle".
  3. ^ a b c "Muslim Brotherhood candidate Morsi wins Egyptian presidential election". Fox News.com. Retrieved 24 June 2012.
  4. ^ "Egyptian Elections Web Archive". Library of Congress. Retrieved 30 December 2023.
  5. ^ "Egypt sets presidential election rules". BBC News. 30 January 2012.
  6. ^ "Official: Presidential candidacy registration process to begin 10 March". Ahram Online. 6 February 2012. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  7. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 25 April 2012. Retrieved 8 April 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  8. ^ a b "المتقدمون للترشح لرئاسة جمهورية مصر العربية 2012". Election Committee. Archived from the original on 5 May 2012.
  9. ^ a b "Court presses ministry to issue certificate showing Abu-Ismail's mother only held Egyptian nationality". Ahram Online. 12 April 2012. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  10. ^ Tarek, Sherif (15 April 2012). "Eliminated presidential contenders to appeal disqualification decision". ahramonline.
  11. ^ "Egypt bars 10 candidates from election". Al-Jazeera.
  12. ^ "Egypt presidential poll bans on candidates upheld". BBC News. 17 April 2012. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  13. ^ "Egypt's SCAF approves bill to bar ex-regime figures politically". xinhua. 24 April 2012. Archived from the original on 22 May 2012.
  14. ^ "مجلس الشعب يوافق علي منع ترشح رموز نظام مبارك للانتخابات الرئاسية والحكومة تؤكد عدم دستورية القانون". Al Ahram. 13 April 2012. Archived from the original on 16 July 2012. Retrieved 25 April 2012.
  15. ^ "العسكرى" يطلق"عزل الفلول".. وشفيق ينتظر "الكارت الأحمر". almasry-alyoum. 25 April 2012. Archived from the original on 26 April 2012. Retrieved 25 April 2012.
  16. ^ "Egypt poll organisers bar last Mubarak-era PM". AFP. 24 April 2012. Archived from the original on 24 January 2013.
  17. ^ a b "Mubarak-era PM Shafik back in presidential race". Ahram Online. 25 April 2012.
  18. ^ Essam El-Din, Gamal (26 April 2012). "Egypt's presidential countdown begins". Ahram Online.
  19. ^ "Shafiq appeals exclusion decision before Presidential Elections Commission". Egypt Independent. 25 April 2012. Archived from the original on 30 April 2012. Retrieved 26 April 2012.
  20. ^ "5 ימים לבחירות, קרב צמוד על נשיאות מצרים".
  21. ^ a b "Egypt: Eissa Withdraws From Presidential Race in Favor of Moussa". allAfrica.com. 16 May 2012. Retrieved 26 December 2012.
  22. ^ "Nour Party endorses Abouel Fotouh for president". Al-Masry Al-Youm. 28 April 2012. Archived from the original on 29 April 2012.
  23. ^ "Egypt's Wasat Party endorses Abul-Fotouh presidential bid". Ahram Online. 30 April 2012.
  24. ^ "شورى الإخوان" يسمي د. مرسي رئيسًا لـ"الحرية والعدالة".إخوان اون لاين، 2011-4-30. وصل لهذا المسار في 1 مايو 2011.
  25. ^ "Interview with Mohamed Morsi". Al-Jazeera. 29 January 2012.
  26. ^ Ramzy, Mahmoud (3 November 2011), "Mubarak's PM launches presidential campaign", Egypt Independent, archived from the original on 1 August 2019, retrieved 18 February 2012
  27. ^ "Presidential candidate stresses his good relations with SCAF", Egypt Independent, 22 December 2011, archived from the original on 22 January 2013, retrieved 18 February 2012
  28. ^ EL DEEB, SARAH (24 April 2012). "Egypt disqualifies 11th presidential candidate". AFP. Archived from the original on 29 April 2012.
  29. ^ a b El-Hennawy, Noha (21 June 2011). "Expelled Brotherhood leader clarifies his political position". Al-Masry Al-Youm.
  30. ^ Knell, Yolande (13 April 2012). "Egypt candidate: Moderate Islamist, Abdel Moneim Aboul Fotouh". BBC News. Retrieved 24 April 2012.
  31. ^ Al-Masry Al-Youm (27 April 2012). "Nour Party endorses Abouel Fotouh for President". Al-masry Al-youm. Archived from the original on 29 April 2012. Retrieved 29 April 2012.
  32. ^ "Al-Ahram Weekly | Economy | 'Topple their debts'". Weekly.ahram.org.eg. 9 November 2011. Archived from the original on 6 January 2012. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  33. ^ "Labor lawyer, activist becomes Egypt's youngest candidate". Bikya Masr. Archived from the original on 2 May 2012. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  34. ^ a b c "Meet Khaled Ali: President Against Odds". Al Akhbar English. Archived from the original on 3 March 2012. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  35. ^ "Youngest presidential hopeful promises to achieve social justice". Thedailynewsegypt.com. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  36. ^ "Egypt.com News – Egypt News – Lefts presidential candidate yet to emerge". News.egypt.com. 21 February 2012. Archived from the original on 29 January 2016. Retrieved 3 March 2012.
  37. ^ "Islamic thinker decides to run for president". Al-Masry Al-Youm. 14 June 2011.
  38. ^ "Amr Moussa opens the way for speculation about his candidacy for the presidency of Egypt" (in Arabic). CNN. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  39. ^ "Amr Moussa did not rule out running for the presidency of Egypt" (in Arabic). Reuters. 20 October 2009. Archived from the original on 21 October 2009. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  40. ^ "Amr Mousa to (Al-Shorouk): Every qualified citizen has the right to aspire to serve the country and become the president". Shorouknews.com. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  41. ^ "Amr Moussa to contest Egyptian poll". Al Jazeera English. 27 February 2011. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
  42. ^ "Hamdeen Sabbahi, hundreds of supporters officially file for presidential candidacy", Ahram Online, 6 April 2012
  43. ^ Human Rights Watch (13 February 2018). "Egypt: Planned Presidential Vote Neither Free Nor Fair". Human Rights Watch. Retrieved 8 January 2018.
  44. ^ "Egypt election: Sisi set to win second term as president". BBC. 29 March 2018. Retrieved 30 March 2018.
  45. ^ a b "Salafi presidential hopeful wants Shura Council abolished", Egypt Independent, 26 January 2012, archived from the original on 7 April 2012, retrieved 18 February 2012
  46. ^ a b Mayton, Joseph (11 February 2012), "Egypt's presidential hopeful Abu Ismail says Islam gives no freedom", Bikya Masr, archived from the original on 15 February 2012, retrieved 18 February 2012
  47. ^ "Egypt's presidential race: Battle of the beards". The Economist. 7 April 2012.
  48. ^ Joseph Mayton: Egypt’s presidential hopeful Abu Ismail says Islam gives no freedom Archived 15 February 2012 at the Wayback Machine, Bikya Masr, 11 February 2012
  49. ^ Manar Ammar: Egypt candidate Abu Ismail: No gambling, no bikinis, no alcohol, Islamic dress Archived 11 March 2012 at the Wayback Machine, Bikya Masr, 1 November 2011, retrieved on 28 March 2012
  50. ^ Salafi presidential hopeful wants Shura Council abolished Archived 7 April 2012 at the Wayback Machine, Egypt Independent, 6 March 2012
  51. ^ Tarek, Sherif (28 March 2012), "Presidential contender Abu-Ismail to officially register candidacy Friday", Ahram Online
  52. ^ "Salafist Scholars Shura Council support presidential hopeful Abu-Ismail", Ahram Online, 24 March 2012
  53. ^ "Influential Salafist Front to support Abu-Ismail's presidential bid", Ahram Online, 12 March 2012
  54. ^ "Egypt's foreign ministry says Abu-Ismail's mother held US citizenship", Ahram Online, 7 April 2012
  55. ^ a b Tarek, Sherif (9 April 2012). "Abu-Ismail: The battle continues". Ahram Online. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  56. ^ "Abu-Ismail supporters protest outside court to salvage presidential bid". Ahram Online. 10 April 2012. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  57. ^ a b c "Egypt bars 10 candidates from election". Al Jazeera English. 15 April 2012. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  58. ^ Macleod, Scott (19 February 2009). "Egypt Frees a Dissident: A Gesture for Obama?". TIME. Archived from the original on 23 February 2009.
  59. ^ "Ayman Nour receives SCAF pardon, to run for president", Ahram Online, 28 March 2012
  60. ^ "Ten Egyptian candidates barred from elections", BBC News, 14 April 2012
  61. ^ Kirkpatrick, David D. (31 March 2012), "More Confident Brotherhood Names Candidate in Egypt", The New York Times
  62. ^ "Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood fields deputy leader as presidential candidate", Washington Post, 31 March 2012, archived from the original on 31 March 2012
  63. ^ "Judges recuse themselves from case against El-Shater presidential bid". Ahram Online. 11 April 2012. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  64. ^ "Ex-intel chief Soleiman 'bows to popular will', runs for presidency", Ahram Online, 6 April 2012
  65. ^ "Egyptian opposition wants ElBaradei to run for president". Tehran Times. 8 October 2009. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  66. ^ "Leading News Resource of Pakistan". Daily Times. 7 October 2009. Archived from the original on 13 May 2011. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  67. ^ Earth Times Staff (20 October 2009). "Arab League chief refuses to rule out Egypt presidential bid". Earth Times News. Archived from the original on 8 September 2012. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  68. ^ "ElBaradei will clear his position on the presidency after November". Shorouknews.com. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  69. ^ "ElBaradei excludes running in the presidential elections in Egypt as a candidate of any political party" (in Arabic). Reuters. 10 December 2009. Archived from the original on 13 December 2009. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  70. ^ "ElBaradei to form 'national association for change'". BBC News. 24 February 2010. Archived from the original on 27 January 2011. Retrieved 31 January 2011.
  71. ^ "Mohamed ElBaradei will end Egypt presidency bid". BBC News. 14 January 2012.
  72. ^ "ElBaradei: Egypt current roadmap to civilian govt is a travesty", Egypt.com, 18 February 2012, archived from the original on 8 June 2013, retrieved 18 February 2012
  73. ^ "أستاذ جامعى يعلن ترشحه للرئاسة بالشرقية". Youm7.com. Archived from the original on 5 January 2013. Retrieved 26 December 2012.
  74. ^ "بيان صحفى 5: لهذه الأسباب فإننى أعلن توقف الحملة عن جمع التأييدات الشعبية وأعلن أنسحابى من استكمال اجراءات الترشح الرسمى للرئاسة كمرشح مستقل". Amnegm.com. Archived from the original on 9 July 2012. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  75. ^ Hassan, Abdalla F. Muslim Woman Seeks Egyptian Presidency The New York Times. 15 June 2011.
  76. ^ "Bothaina Kamel poised for second presidential run". Ahram Online. 13 April 2014. Retrieved 13 April 2014.
  77. ^ "Egyptian Singer Saad El-Soghayar to Run for President". News.egypt.com. 3 April 2012. Retrieved 4 April 2012.
  78. ^ a b "First Egyptian Opinion Poll" (PDF). Conducted by YouGov. Retrieved 1 November 2011.
  79. ^ Arabian Business Egyptians back sharia law, end of Israel treaty, poll shows, 26 April 2011
  80. ^ "Phone Survey of Cairo and Alexandria". Scribd Middle East Polls. 24 June 2010. Archived from the original on 13 March 2011. Retrieved 12 March 2011.
  81. ^ International Peace Institute Poll, conducted by Charney Research, April 2011
  82. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 31 March 2012. Retrieved 10 October 2011.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
  83. ^ "Egypt's Simmering Rage". The Daily Beast. 26 July 2011. Retrieved 11 May 2012.
  84. ^ National Voter Survey in Egypt Archived 11 August 2016 at the Wayback Machine, Danish Institute for Parties and Democracy, dipd.dk. Retrieved on 30 August 2011.
  85. ^ 2nd National Voter Survey in Egypt[permanent dead link], Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute (DEDI), dedi.org.eg. Retrieved on 13 October 2011.
  86. ^ 3rd National Voter Survey in Egypt Archived 1 August 2013 at the Wayback Machine, Danish-Egyptian Dialogue Institute (DEDI), dedi.org.eg. Retrieved on 12 November 2011
  87. ^ "Moussa leads presidential race at 31.5 pct, but 57.6 pct of Egyptians prefer an Islamist: Poll". ahram online. 2 April 2012.
  88. ^ "April 09, 2012 Opinion poll on presidential candidates shows Moussa on top". Egypt Independent. 9 April 2012. Archived from the original on 8 July 2012.
  89. ^ "من هو الرئيس القادم؟.. أول استطلاع للرأي العام بعد إعلان قائمة المرشحين". المصري اليوم.
  90. ^ "Suleiman exit could benefit Shafiq, Moussa: Poll". Ahram Online. 16 April 2012.
  91. ^ "في الاستطلاع الأسبوعي لمركز الدراسات بـ الأهرام تقدم سليمان علي حساب موسي وشفيق". Al-Ahram. Archived from the original on 30 December 2012. Retrieved 16 April 2012.
  92. ^ "Poll: Moussa tops list of presidential candidates after Abu Ismail barred". Egypt Independent. 23 April 2012. Archived from the original on 1 August 2013.
  93. ^ "أحدث استطلاعات الرأي: "الطبيب" و"الدبلوماسي" مؤهلان لانتخابات الإعادة في الرئاسة". Al Masry Al Youm. 23 April 2012.
  94. ^ Namatalla, Ahmed (24 April 2012). "Most Egyptians Undecided Before Presidential Vote, Poll Shows". Bloomberg News. Archived from the original on 22 July 2012.
  95. ^ "Poll puts Amr Moussa as leading candidate for Egyptian presidency". 30 April 2012.
  96. ^ "في استطلاع مركز الأهرام للدراسات السياسية موسي يتصدر المرشحين للرئاسة يليه أبوالفتوح". Al Ahram. 30 April 2012. Archived from the original on 3 January 2013. Retrieved 30 April 2012.
  97. ^ "أحدث استطلاعات الرأي: "أبو الفتوح" يحتفظ بالمقدمة.. وارتفاع طفيف لمؤيدي "موسى" (3)". Al Masry Al Youm. 30 April 2012.
  98. ^ "Egyptian Poll: Close between Moussa and Al Futuh".
  99. ^ "مجلس الوزراء يجرى استطلاعًا عن طبيعة رؤية المواطن المصرى للرئيس الجديد". Archived from the original on 5 January 2013.
  100. ^ "Poll: Moussa leads presidential race with 39%, Abouel Fotouh in second". Archived from the original on 10 May 2012.
  101. ^ "في الاستطلاع الأسبوعي لمركز الأهرام للدراسات موسي في الصدارة يليه أبو الفتوح وشفيق". al ahram. 7 May 2012. Archived from the original on 31 December 2012. Retrieved 7 May 2012.
  102. ^ "نتائج استطلاع (الشروق) حول الانتخابات الرئاسية يكشف: ثلث المصريين لم يحسم مرشحه للرئاسة".
  103. ^ "المصري اليوم تنشر أحدث استطلاعات رأى للسباق الرئاسى (4)".
  104. ^ "Abul-Fotouh leads presidential race, new Cabinet survey reveals".
  105. ^ a b "Abul-Fotouh dips, Moussa holds steady in Ahram presidential poll".
  106. ^ في استطلاع مركز الأهرام للدراسات السياسية : موسى في المقدمة وصعود شفيق ومرسي علي حساب أبوالفتوح والعوا. Al Ahram (in Arabic). 14 May 2012. Archived from the original on 30 December 2012. Retrieved 14 May 2012.
  107. ^ "أحدث اسـتطلاعات الرأي: "موسى" يتخلى عن المقدمة لـ"شفيق" و"أبوالفتوح" الثالث (5)".
  108. ^ "Govt poll shows Shafiq leading Egyptian presidential race".
  109. ^ "شفيق يتصدر استطلاع مركز المعلومات يليه موسى .. وتراجع ابو الفتوح". Egypt News. 14 May 2012. Archived from the original on 16 May 2012.
  110. ^ "شفيق يتصدر استطلاع مركز المعلومات للأسبوع الثانى يليه موسي".
  111. ^ a b "Moussa, Shafiq lead Egypt presidential race: Opinion polls".
  112. ^ "آخر استطلاع لـ"الشروق": موسى وأبو الفتوح كتفاً بكتف". shorouk. 19 May 2012.
  113. ^ "Muslim Brotherhood Candidate Trails in Race for Egypt's Presidency: UMD Poll".
  114. ^ "What Do Egyptians Want? Key Findings from the Egyptian Public Opinion Poll".
  115. ^ https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2012/05/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Project-Egypt-Report-FINAL-May-8-2012-2PM-ET.pdf [bare URL PDF]
  116. ^ "Egyptians Remain Optimistic, Embrace Democracy and Religion in Political Life". 8 May 2012.
  117. ^ https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2012/05/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Project-Egypt-Report-FINAL-May-8-2012-2PM-ET.pdf [bare URL PDF]
  118. ^ https://www.pewresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/2/2011/04/Pew-Global-Attitudes-Egypt-Report-FINAL-April-25-2011.pdf [bare URL PDF]
  119. ^ [1][dead link]
  120. ^ "الانتخابات الرئاسية 2012 – الموقع الرسمي للجنة الانتخابات الرئاسية". Archived from the original on 12 September 2015. Retrieved 11 August 2014.
  121. ^ a b "Opinion | Palestinians' flawed 2006 elections empowered Hamas — and destroyed democracy". Washington Post. 27 October 2023. ISSN 0190-8286. Retrieved 19 February 2024. candidates who advanced to the runoff were extremely polarizing: the Islamist Morsi and the Mubarak regime holdover Shafik. Just under half the first-round votes went to the other three candidates, who were more in the middle of Egypt's political spectrum. The moderate vote split in three
  122. ^ a b "EISA Egypt: 2012 Presidential election results". 27 December 2021. Archived from the original on 27 December 2021. Retrieved 19 February 2024.
  123. ^ Abadeer, Caroline; Blackman, Alexandra Domike; Williamson, Scott (28 March 2018). "Voting in Transition: Participation and Alienation in Egypt's 2012 Presidential Election". Middle East Law and Governance. 10 (1): 25–58. doi:10.1163/18763375-01001001. ISSN 1876-3367. Despite performing relatively well, Sabahi, Aboul Fotouh, and Moussa appeared to split each other's votes. In the final results, Morsi and Shafiq took the first and second spots to compete in the run-off
  124. ^ a b Arafat, Alaa Al-Din (2017), "Muslim Brotherhood and the Presidential Elections", The Rise of Islamism in Egypt, Cham: Springer International Publishing, pp. 195–216, doi:10.1007/978-3-319-53712-2_7, ISBN 978-3-319-53711-5, retrieved 19 February 2024, Three candidates were thought to be out of the running: Mohamed Morsi, because of his radical views and discourse; Ahmed Shafiq, because of his relations with Mubarak … the non-Islamist vote had been split three ways
  125. ^ Even if all other 8 candidates transferred all their ballots to Moussa, 13.36 is still less than Fotouh's 17.47.
  126. ^ "Egypt's third runner-up seeks election suspension: lawyer". English.alarabiya.net. 26 May 2012. Archived from the original on 21 June 2012. Retrieved 26 December 2012.
  127. ^ "Egypt's Sabahi contests presidential elections results". Reuters. 30 May 2014.
  128. ^ "Egypt rejects appeal of defeated presidential candidate". Reuters. 1 June 2014.
  129. ^ Yossi Beilin (18 August 2013). "'Morsi didn't win the elections'". Israel Hayom. Archived from the original on 18 August 2013. Retrieved 24 February 2024.
  130. ^ August 19, D. J. McGuire / (19 August 2013). "Did Morsi actually LOSE the Egyptian election? | Bearing Drift". bearingdrift.com. Retrieved 24 February 2024.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)
  131. ^ "English text of SCAF amended Egypt Constitutional Declaration – Politics – Egypt – Ahram Online". English.ahram.org.eg. Retrieved 26 December 2012.

Further reading

edit
edit