TAGGED AS: Box Office, movies, news
Theaters are alive with the sounds of children and families — birthday and Christmas parties being planned around a video game character that helped launch the Sega Genesis game system back in 1991. There is also a prequel to two of the most successful films of all-time (from 1994 and its CGI remake in 2019), not to mention those still catching up on Disney’s converted streaming series and others who can’t wait to sing along with their favorite Broadway musical on the big screen. It may be loud in those theater lobbies, but they will certainly welcome it as the two-week holiday begins for the young ones.
Before we get into more successes and one some may be thinking could fall short of that status, man, is Kraven the Hunter a box office failure. Like, whoo-boy ouch. Maybe not Red One bad, but pretty bad. How bad? Megalopolis and Joker: Folie a Deux have some more company now. Joker could at least try to brag that it grossed $200 million worldwide. And while Megalopolis can’t say it made $15 million, that at least was Coppola’s own dough and was never considered anything but an arthouse passion project that managed to get a wide release.
Kraven the Hunter is part of the Sony Marvel Universe — an important distinction from Marvel proper, but Venom is a three-film $1.83 billion series. Morbius may have bombed, but it still made $167.4 million. Madame Web bombed even harder and still got over $100 million globally. Kraven the Hunter made $3.1 million in its second weekend. That is just $17.4 million total domestic and $42.8 million worldwide. Tarot has grossed more for Sony with $48 million. Yeah, the situation is that bad.
Most weekends the smart money would have been on the film directly connected to one of the 10 highest global grossers of all time, which is in no way a slight against Sonic, because its third entry was already primed to put the franchise into billion dollar territory. It’s just that The Lion King did it twice if you adjust its initial release for inflation. The first Sonic the Hedgehog film earned its own asterisk for having its run interrupted by the start of the pandemic. It was just four weekends into its release when COVID struck Tom Hanks and the NBA (“great name for a band, you should write that down”) and it finished with $148.9 million domestic and $319.7 million globally. The second film arrived in 2022 as theaters were starting to find their place permanently again, grossing $190.8 million domestic and $405.4 million worldwide.
Now comes Sonic the Hedgehog 3, wisely deciding against another spring release and jumping right into the more lucrative holiday season, where even soft openings can translate into hundreds of millions of dollars. And it’s off to a solid start, with $62 million over the weekend in 3,761 theaters for a $16,484 per-theater-average. That’s the 10th best of 2024 for a wide release and the 16th-best opening ever for December. It’s also the best opening ever this month for Paramount, a distinction once held by Daddy’s Home ($38.7 million). The studio certainly has that little Titanic movie, too, from this month, but inflation notwithstanding, Sonic 3 could best Beverly Hills Cop and Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol as one of their highest-grossing holiday releases ever.
One might look at a 81.8% decrease from the opening weekend of one movie from its predecessor as a disappointment. The fact remains that when Disney remade their animated 1994 classic The Lion King into a CGI photo-realistic concoction, it opened to $191.7 million. In three days, that was more than half of what the original film made in North America. Five years later, instead of a sequel, they decided to go the prequel route with Mufasa: The Lion King with Oscar-winning director Barry Jenkins on board to direct, and it opened its North American run with $35.5 million. Again, that’s 81.8% lower than 2019, when on any other single day its opening weekend was higher than this whole weekend. But wait, there’s more.
The production arrives at a no-surprise cost of $200 million, because why not, after a $1.65 billion haul the first (that is, second) time around, with $1.11 billion of that on the international side alone. Normally, an opening like that with a budget like that would spell panic for any studio. However, these are the holidays. Remember the raised eyebrows just a year ago when Wonka opened to a “soft” $39 million the weekend of Dec. 15? How did that work out? $218.4 million and $634.4 million worldwide. Granted, even with Migration opening a week later, the marketplace was not nearly as loaded with family fare. The holidays do bring out the money. However, while there is only one film ever to open this month over $40 million and not gross at least $200 million (Tron: Legacy), only four of the 20 films to open between $30-40 million reached that milestone.
On Mufasa’s side is the fact that those four were all family films (Night at the Museum, Sing, Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle, and… Wonka) but Disney is probably wondering if they don’t have another Lightyear situation on their hand. It is unlikely to be that bad even if the domestic haul does trail off, because international sales are still expected to be strong. It made $87 million alone outside North America this weekend. (Lightyear made just $226 million worldwide after opening to $50.5 million domestic.) Tron: Legacy is also the film to open in December to over $31 million and not have its numbers represent a successful theatrical run against its budget. Critics have been a bit more favorable to Mufasa than they were to Jon Favreau’s Lion King remake (56% vs. 51%). Unless families just walk away from it completely, the next two weeks should form the bigger story.
One of two films that will have no problem calling themselves a success is Wicked, which officially leapfrogged Moana 2 to all but secure it will win the domestic battle as much as it loses the worldwide one. Universal still has a whole half of a movie in waiting for 2025 to add to this total, but a 40% drop to $13.5 million puts their Part One just below $384 million. That’s the third-best 31-day total for a November release ever behind Black Panther: Wakanda Forever and Frozen II, though Wicked’s fifth weekend beat their respective totals of $11.2 million and $12.9 million. Wicked is not far behind Frozen II’s $387.2 million first-month total and is forging a path somewhere between $475-500 million domestic. That is going to give it a road towards $700 million worldwide (it is currently at $571.3 million), which, even with reportedly record-breaking advertising numbers, will keep the film firmly in profit with a Part Two on the way.
Moana 2 is already at that number. In fact, it was there last weekend. Now it’s at $790 million. There is no disputing the Disney sequel is a global hit, but it is going to come up well short of some of the half-billion domestic estimates that were being bandied about after its record opening. Where Wicked is aligning its pace closer with Frozen II, this is closer to The Hunger Games: Catching Fire, which had a $13.6 million fourth weekend and $360.3 million after 26 days. Moana 2 made $13.1 million this weekend and is at $359 million. That would still get the film around $420 million. Catching Fire made $45 million alone in the two weeks of Christmas break, and it was slightly further into its run. So that estimate could even skew a bit higher — just not half a billion. But close to a billion worldwide is a pretty good haul for a project that almost made none of that streaming on Disney Plus.
Fifth place this week goes to the apocalyptic western, Homestead, from Angel Studios. The film started with $6 million in 1,886 theaters, slightly better than the $5 million that their last release, Bonhoeffer: Pastor. Spy. Assassin., started with in 1,900 theaters. That film just crossed $12 million, putting it right in the league with their releases His Only Son, After Death, The Shift, and Sound of Hope to finish between $11-12.5 million. Homestead looks headed for that territory as well, if not a little better.
Gladiator II also continues to march towards its finishing target between $170-175 million. Another $4.4 million this weekend keeps the historical piece reasonably parallel with Roland Emmerich’s once futuristic/now historical disaster film 2012, which had $155.2 million in 31 days after a $4.35 million fifth weekend. GladIIator is at $153.9 million right now, and 2012 finished with over $166 million. The film is over $410 million globally and looks to be coming up short on leaving theaters in profit with its now reported $250 million budget.
Remember how bad Kraven the Hunter is doing? Red One is even worse, at least on the bottom line. It is trying to inch its way towards $100 million, domestic adding $1.5 million this weekend to bring its total to $95.4 million. But this is the first time since Central Intelligence in 2016 that a Dwayne Johnson film failed to make $100 million outside of the U.S. Red One was at just $82.6 million internationally opening the weekend. It’s made less than half of what Gladiator II made with a $250 million price tag, and if that is a failure, Red One is more than double the failure. Kraven the Hunter at least only cost about half of that. Nothing is going to unseat this as THE bomb of 2024.
Rounding out the top 10, The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim has certainly not done much for theaters either, but it only cost about a quarter of what Kraven did, so its 72% fall to $1.2 million this weekend feels like an afterthought — much like the film itself, which has made just $7.3 million in 10 days. Lionsgate’s The Best Christmas Pageant Ever made $825,000 in 861 theaters, bringing the studio’s top-grossing film of 2024 to $38.4 million.
A24 released its big awards contender The Brutalist in four theaters in New York and Los Angeles, and Brady Corbet’s film grossed $267,000 for a PTA of $66,698. That is the third best of the year behind fellow (future) Best Picture contender Anora ($91,751) in first and Kinds of Kindness ($75,458) in second. The studio’s Queer, directed by Luca Gudagnino and starring Danel Craig, made $364,240 to bring its total to $2.8 million. Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain grossed $217,000 in just 160 theaters to bring the Searchlight release’s total to $7.3 million. Sean Baker’s Anora made $160,000, and it has now made $13.8 million. It is Neon’s fifth-highest grossing film in its history.
RaMell Ross’ awards contender Nickel Boys made $62,162 in five theaters to bring the total of the Amazon/MGM/Orion release to $145,000. The wordless animated film Flow made $235,000 in 199 theaters bringing its total to $1.78 million. Pedro Almodovar’s The Room Next Door opened in six theaters this weekend, and the Sony Classics release made $107,000 for an $18,000 PTA. Samuel Goldwyn’s Release of Alexandre de La Patelliere and Matthieu Delaporte’s three-hour adaptation of The Count of Monte-Cristo grossed $17,000 in four NY/LA theaters — the Certified Fresh film expands further on Jan. 3.
Christmas Day releases come in all shapes and sizes starting with Timothee Chalamat as Bob Dylan in James Mangold’s A Complete Unknown from Searchlight Pictures. Focus Features has Robert Eggers’ reimagining of Nosferatu. A24 has Halina Reijn’s follow-up to Bodies Bodies Bodies with Nicole Kidman in Babygirl. Amazon has the true boxing tale of The Fire Inside from cinematographer Rachel Morrison making her directorial debut. And in limited release, we have the Robbie Williams-as-a-Chimpanzee biopic, Better Man.
88%
97%
Sonic the Hedgehog 3
(2024)
– $62 million ($62 Million Total)
55%
88%
Mufasa: The Lion King
(2024)
– $35 million ($35 Million Total)
88%
95%
Wicked
(2024)
– $13.5 million ($383.9 Million Total)
61%
86%
Moana 2
(2024)
– $13.1 million ($359 million total)
35%
74%
Homestead
(2024)
– $11 million ($11 Million Total)
71%
82%
Gladiator II
(2024)
– $4.4 million ($153.9 Million Total)
15%
73%
Kraven the Hunter
(2024)
– $3.2 million ($17.4 Million Total)
30%
90%
Red One
(2024)
– $1.5 million ($95.4 Million Total)
47%
83%
The Lord of the Rings: The War of the Rohirrim
(2024)
– $1.2 million ($7.3 Million Total)
92%
97%
The Best Christmas Pageant Ever
(2024)
– $825,000 ($38.4 Million Total)
Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.
[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]
Thumbnail image by ©Paramount Pictures
