Economic forecasts

After a prolonged period of stagnation, better-than-expected growth at the start of 2024 and the ongoing reduction in inflation set the scene for a gradual recovery of the EU economy over the forecast horizon.

Following subdued growth last year, the EU economy has entered 2024 on a weaker footing than expected. The European Commission’s 2024 Winter interim Economic Forecast revises growth in both the EU and the euro area down for 2023 and 2024.

The European economy has lost momentum this year against the background of a high cost of living, weak external demand and monetary tightening.

The EU economy continues to grow, albeit with reduced momentum. The Summer 2023 Interim Economic Forecast revises growth down for the EU and the euro area in both 2023 and 2024. Headline inflation is expected to continue declining, broadly in line with the spring projections.

The European economy continues to show resilience in a challenging global context. Lower energy prices, abating supply constraints and a strong labour market supported moderate growth in the first quarter of 2023, dispelling fears of a recession and lifting the growth outlook for 2023 and 2024.

This Winter interim Forecast lifts the outlook for growth and slightly lowers the inflation projections. Growth for 2022 is now estimated at 3.5% in both the EU and the euro area. GDP is projected to expand by 0.8% in 2023 and 1.6% in 2024 (0.9% and 1.5% in the euro area).

Though rapidly declining throughout the year, average inflation is projected to remain high, at 7.0% in the EU and 6.1% in the euro area – again a very large revision with respect to the 4.6% and 4.0% expected respectively for the EU and the euro area only a few months ago.

Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine continues to send shockwaves through the global economy. To navigate these troubled waters, Europe must show leadership, with three words defining our policies: solidarity, sustainabilty and security.

The outlook for the EU economy before the outbreak of the war was for a prolonged and robust expansion. But Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has posed new challenges, just as the Union had recovered from the economic impacts of the pandemic.

The EU economy entered the new year on a weaker note than previously projected.

The Autumn 2021 Economic Forecast projects that, despite mounting headwinds, the EU economy is projected to keep expanding over the forecast horizon.

The European economy is forecast to rebound faster than previously expected, as activity in the first quarter of the year exceeded expectations...

The Spring 2021 Economic Forecast projects that growth rates will continue to vary across the EU, but all Member States should see their economies return to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2022.

Europe remains in the grip of the coronavirus pandemic.

Economic activity in Europe suffered a severe shock in the first half of the year and rebounded strongly in the third quarter as containment measures...

The EU economy will experience a deep recession this year due to the coronavirus pandemic, despite the swift and comprehensive policy response...

The coronavirus pandemic represents a major shock for the global and EU economies, with very severe socio-economic consequences.

The Winter 2020 Economic Forecast projects that the European economy is set to continue on a path of steady, moderate growth.

The European economy is now in its seventh consecutive year of growth and is forecast to continue expanding in 2020 and 2021.

The forecast for euro area GDP growth in 2019 remains unchanged at 1.2%, while the forecast for 2020 has been lowered slightly to 1.4% following the more moderate pace expected in the rest of this year (spring forecast: 1.5%). 

The European economy is forecast to continue expanding for the seventh year in a row in 2019, with real GDP expected to grow in all EU Member States.

The European economy is expected to grow for the seventh year in a row in 2019, with expansion forecast in every Member State.

Growth in the euro area is forecast to ease from a 10-year high of 2.4% in 2017 to 2.1% in 2018 before moderating further to 1.9% in 2019 and 1.7% in 2020.

Growth is set to remain strong in 2018 and 2019, at 2.1% this year and 2% next year inboth the EU and the euro area.

Growth rates for the EU and the euro area beat expectations in 2017 to reach a 10-year high at 2.4%.

Growth rates for the euro area and the EU beat expectations last year as the transition from economic recovery to expansion continues. The euro area and EU economies are both estimated to have grown by 2.4% in 2017, the fastest pace in a decade.

The euro area economy is on track to grow at its fastest pace in a decade this year, with real GDP growth forecast at 2.2%.

Published on 11 May 2017 and covering the period to the end of 2018.Download the report, access the data source and see key predictions.

Having proven resilient to global challenges last year, the European economic recovery is expected to continue this year and next: for the first time in...

Commission forecasts 2017 euro area growth of 1.5% and EU growth of 1.6% hindrances to growth and the weakening of supportive factors. This page groups all documents and media related to the Autumn 2016 economic forecast, as well as a video summarising the main findings.

Commission forecasts euro area growth of 1.6% and EU growth of 1.8% in 2016. Economic growth in Europe is expected to remain modest as key trading partners' performance has slowed and some of the so far supportive factors start to wane. This page groups all documents and media related to the...