Indicators
India’s retail inflation accelerates to 5.49%, exceeds RBI’s 4% target
India's retail inflation rose to 5.49% in September, driven by higher vegetable prices and a lower year-ago base, surpassing the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) 4% medium-term target for the first time since July. This increase follows a five-year low of 3.65% in August.
Understanding India's food inflation: The impact of rising tomato, onion, and potato prices
High food inflation is a major concern in India, with the prices of tomatoes, onions, and potatoes (TOP) significantly impacting consumer price indices. Factors include short crop cycles, storage challenges, and regional production concentration. To address this, the Reserve Bank of India proposes agricultural market reforms, futures trading, storage expansion, and investment in processing facilities and productivity.
Wholesale inflation quickens to 1.84% in September driven by food price surge
India's wholesale inflation rose to 1.84% in September from 1.31% in August, driven by changes in the Wholesale Price Index covering primary articles, fuel, and manufactured products. The RBI’s MPC retained the repo rate and adjusted inflation projections, maintaining a neutral stance amidst varied inflation and growth trends.
Industrial production contracts for first time in nearly 2 years
India's industrial output dropped by 0.1% in August, marking the first contraction in 22 months due to an unfavourable base and declines in mining and electricity. Industrial growth for the current financial year's first five months was 4.2%. Economists expect a recovery with the monsoon and festive season boosting rural demand and consumption.
Net direct tax collections rise 18.35 pc to Rs 11.25 lakh crore in April-October
Net tax collections increased by over 18% year-on-year to Rs 11.25 lakh crore as of October 11. This includes Rs 4.94 lakh crore from corporate tax and Rs 5.98 lakh crore from personal income tax. Gross direct tax collections reached Rs 13.57 lakh crore, up 22.30%, with refunds rising 46%.
India's industrial production contracts 0.1 per cent in August 2024
India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) contracted by 0.1 per cent in August on an annual basis, following a 4.7 per cent growth in July. Mining, manufacturing, and electricity sectors saw mixed results, with mining and electricity contracting while manufacturing grew slightly. Heavy rainfall is likely to have impacted the mining sector. Various use-based sectors also experienced different growth rates.
India’s forex reserves dip $3.7 bn to come off all-time record high
India's foreign exchange reserves decreased by $3.7 billion to $701.18 billion as of October 4, according to the Reserve Bank of India. The RBI intervenes in the forex market to manage liquidity and prevent excessive rupee depreciation, ensuring orderly market conditions without aiming for specific exchange rate targets.
India's high food inflation leaves less in lunch boxes of poor school children
Rising food inflation over nearly two years in India has caused budgetary strain on government-funded school meal programs, forcing cutbacks in key nutritious ingredients, thereby compromising the quality of meals provided to nearly 120 million children, impacting their nutrition and highlighting economic inequality.
World Bank maintains India's FY25 GDP growth forecast at 7% amid strong agricultural production, employment growth
India's GDP growth forecast for FY25 remains at 7% due to higher agricultural production and robust employment growth. The World Bank predicts India will be the second highest growing South Asian nation, outpacing most emerging markets. The fiscal deficit is expected to reduce by 0.7 percentage point.
World Bank ups India's growth forecast for FY25 to 7% due to rising private consumption
The World Bank has raised India's economic growth forecast to 7% for the fiscal year ending in March 2025. This is up from April's 6.6% estimate. The growth is attributed to increased agricultural output and private consumption. The central bank maintained inflation forecasts and highlighted a resilient domestic growth outlook driven by private consumption and investment.
Must Watch
If rate cut happens in Feb, it will come with significant downward revision of GDP: Union Bank report
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) holds the repo rate unchanged, shifting its policy stance to neutral, signaling ongoing inflation concerns. The UBI report suggests no rate cut in December due to rising inflation, with a possible rate cut and GDP forecast revision in Q4-FY25.
SBI notices intriguing detail in RBI's latest GDP forecast, flags a "rare, unprecedented" possibility
The Reserve Bank of India has projected a GDP growth of over 7 per cent for the financial year 2024-25. A report by State Bank of India notes that historically, such growth has rarely coincided with a rate cut in India or elsewhere.
India's September inflation likely overshot RBI's 4% target: Reuters poll
India's retail inflation in September exceeded the RBI's 4% target due to rising vegetable prices and a lower year-ago base. The inflation rate is predicted to be 5.04% compared to 3.65% in August. Core inflation also saw a slight increase. This might give the RBI space to start cutting interest rates by December.
RBI projects inflation to drop to 4.1% in FY26 amid stable economic growth
The RBI projects CPI inflation to decrease to 4.1% in FY26 from 4.5% in the current fiscal. Economic growth is predicted to slightly decline to 7.1% in FY26. Key risks include geopolitical conflicts, uneven rainfall, and commodity price volatility, while strong domestic demand and government initiatives may support growth.
Indian households expect inflation to ease over various time horizons, says RBI survey
Indian households expect inflation to ease, as indicated by an RBI survey. Median perception of current inflation dips to 8.1%. Three-month and one-year inflation expectations decrease by 20 and 10 basis points, respectively. Food inflation remains a key driver, while female respondents report slightly lower inflation expectations than males.
Over 34.84 lakh IT audit reports filed on e-filing portal up to Oct 7: Finmin
The finance ministry reported over 34.84 lakh audit reports, including approximately 34.09 lakh Tax Audit Reports (TARs), were filed for AY 2024-25 by October 7. This marks a 4.8% increase from the previous year. Extensive outreach and helpdesk support facilitated taxpayers in timely compliance, with the helpdesk handling 1.23 lakh queries during September and October.
