skip to main content
10.1145/2660460.2660472acmconferencesArticle/Chapter ViewAbstractPublication PagescosnConference Proceedingsconference-collections
research-article

Spreading rumours without the network

Published: 01 October 2014 Publication History

Abstract

In this paper we tackle the following question: is it possible to predict the characteristics of the evolution of an epidemic process in a social network on the basis of the degree distribution alone? We answer this question affirmatively for several diffusion processes-- Push-Pull, Broadcast and SIR-- by showing that it is possible to predict with good accuracy their average evolution. We do this by developing a space efficient predictor that makes it possible to handle very large networks with very limited computational resources. Our experiments show that the prediction is surprisingly good for many instances of real-world networks. The class of real-world networks for which this happens can be characterized in terms of their neighbourhood function, which turns out to be similar to that of random networks. Finally, we analyse real instances of rumour spreading in Twitter and observe that our model describes qualitatively well their evolution.

References

[1]
R. Albert, H. Jeong, and A. L. Barabasi. The diameter of the world wide web. Nature, 1999.
[2]
R. Andersen, F. Chung, and K. Lang. Local graph partitioning using pagerank vectors. In FOCS, 2006.
[3]
L. Backstrom, P. Boldi, M. Rosa, J. Ugander, and S. Vigna. Four degrees of separation. In WebSci, 2012.
[4]
M. Bayati, J. Kim, and A. Saberi. A sequential algorithm for generating random graphs. Algorithmica, 2010.
[5]
M. Boguá, R. Pastor-Satorras, and A. Vespignani. Epidemic spreading in complex networks with degree correlations. Statistical mechanics of complex networks, 2003.
[6]
P. Boldi, M. Rosa, and S. Vigna. HyperANF: Approximating the neighbourhood function of very large graphs on a budget. In WWW, 2011.
[7]
P. Boldi and S. Vigna. The WebGraph framework I: Compression techniques. In WWW, 2004.
[8]
S. Chatterjee, R. Durrett, et al. Contact processes on random graphs with power law degree distributions have critical value 0. The Annals of Probability, 2009.
[9]
F. Chierichetti, R. Kumar, S. Lattanzi, M. Mitzenmacher, A. Panconesi, and P. Raghavan. On compressing social networks. In KDD, 2009.
[10]
F. Chierichetti, S. Lattanzi, and A. Panconesi. Almost tight bounds for rumour spreading with conductance. In Proc. 42nd STOC, 2010.
[11]
F. Chierichetti, S. Lattanzi, and A. Panconesi. Rumour spreading and graph conductance. In SODA, 2010.
[12]
A. Demers, D. Greene, C. Hauser, W. Irish, J. Larson, S. Shenker, H. Sturgis, D. Swinehart, and D. Terry. Epidemic algorithms for replicated database maintenance. In PODC, 1987.
[13]
U. Feige, D. Peleg, P. Raghavan, and E. Upfal. Randomized broadcast in networks. In Algorithms. Springer, 1990.
[14]
N. Fountoulakis, K. Panagiotou, and T. Sauerwald. Ultra-fast rumor spreading in social networks. In SODA, 2012.
[15]
G. Giakkoupis. Tight bounds for rumor spreading in graphs of a given conductance. In T. Schwentick and C. Dürr, editors, STACS, 2011.
[16]
S. Goel, A. Anderson, J. Hofman, and D. Watts. The structural virality of online diffusion. Under review 5harad.com/papers/twiral.pdf, 2014.
[17]
R. J. Hyndman and A. B. Koehler. Another look at measures of forecast accuracy. Int. J. Forecasting, 2006.
[18]
J. Jiang, C. Wilson, X. Wang, P. Huang, W. Sha, Y. Dai, and B. Y. Zhao. Understanding latent interactions in online social networks. In IMC, 2010.
[19]
D. Kempe, J. Kleinberg, and E. Tardos. Maximizing the spread of influence through a social network. In Proceedings of the ninth ACM SIGKDD international conference on Knowledge discovery and data mining, 2003.
[20]
W. O. Kermack and A. G. McKendrick. Contributions to the mathematical theory of epidemics. II. The problem of endemicity. Proc. of the Royal society of London. Series A, 1932.
[21]
J. Leskovec, L. A. Adamic, and B. A. Huberman. The dynamics of viral marketing. ACM Trans. Web, 2007.
[22]
J. Leskovec, D. Huttenlocher, and J. Kleinberg. Signed networks in social media. In CHI, 2010.
[23]
J. Leskovec, J. Kleinberg, and C. Faloutsos. Graph evolution: Densification and shrinking diameters. ACM Trans. KDD, 2007.
[24]
J. Leskovec, K. Lang, A. Dasgupta, and M. Mahoney. Community structure in large networks: Natural cluster sizes and the absence of large well-defined clusters. J. Int. Math., 2009.
[25]
N. Litvak and R. van der Hofstad. Uncovering disassortativity in large scale-free networks. Phys. Review E, 2013.
[26]
D. Maki and M. Thompson. Mathematical models and applications: with emphasis on the social, life, and management sciences. Prentice-Hall, 1973.
[27]
Y. Matias, J. S. Vitter, and W.-C. Ni. Dynamic generation of discrete random variates. In SODA, 1993
[28]
M. E. J. Newman. Mixing patterns in networks. Phys. Rev. E, 2003.
[29]
B. Pittel. On spreading a rumor. SIAM J. Appl. Math., 1987.
[30]
A. Reka and Barabási. Statistical mechanics of complex networks. Rev. Mod. Phys., 2002.
[31]
M. Richardson, R. Agrawal, and P. Domingos. Trust management for the semantic web. International Semantic Web Conference, 2003.
[32]
L. Takac and M. Zabovsky. Data analysis in public social networks. In Int. Scientific Conf. Present Day Trends of Innovations, 2012.
[33]
J. Ugander, B. Karrer, L. Backstrom, and C. Marlow. The anatomy of the facebook social graph. CoRR, 2011.
[34]
B. Viswanath, A. Mislove, M. Cha, and K. P. Gummadi. On the evolution of user interaction in facebook. In WOSN, 2009.
[35]
A. J. Walker. An efficient method for generating discrete random variables with general distributions. ACM Trans. Math. Softw., 1977.
[36]
C. Wong and M. Easton. An efficient method for weighted sampling without replacement. SIAM J. on Computing, 1980.
[37]
N. Wormald. Models of random regular graphs. In Surveys in Combinatorics. Cambridge U. Press, 1999.

Cited By

View all

Index Terms

  1. Spreading rumours without the network

    Recommendations

    Comments

    Information & Contributors

    Information

    Published In

    cover image ACM Conferences
    COSN '14: Proceedings of the second ACM conference on Online social networks
    October 2014
    288 pages
    ISBN:9781450331982
    DOI:10.1145/2660460
    Permission to make digital or hard copies of all or part of this work for personal or classroom use is granted without fee provided that copies are not made or distributed for profit or commercial advantage and that copies bear this notice and the full citation on the first page. Copyrights for components of this work owned by others than the author(s) must be honored. Abstracting with credit is permitted. To copy otherwise, or republish, to post on servers or to redistribute to lists, requires prior specific permission and/or a fee. Request permissions from [email protected].

    Sponsors

    Publisher

    Association for Computing Machinery

    New York, NY, United States

    Publication History

    Published: 01 October 2014

    Permissions

    Request permissions for this article.

    Check for updates

    Author Tags

    1. configuration model
    2. degree distribution
    3. neighbourhood function.
    4. push-pull
    5. rumour spreading
    6. sir
    7. social networks

    Qualifiers

    • Research-article

    Funding Sources

    Conference

    COSN'14
    Sponsor:
    COSN'14: Conference on Online Social Networks
    October 1 - 2, 2014
    Dublin, Ireland

    Acceptance Rates

    COSN '14 Paper Acceptance Rate 25 of 87 submissions, 29%;
    Overall Acceptance Rate 69 of 307 submissions, 22%

    Contributors

    Other Metrics

    Bibliometrics & Citations

    Bibliometrics

    Article Metrics

    • Downloads (Last 12 months)2
    • Downloads (Last 6 weeks)0
    Reflects downloads up to 24 Dec 2024

    Other Metrics

    Citations

    Cited By

    View all

    View Options

    Login options

    View options

    PDF

    View or Download as a PDF file.

    PDF

    eReader

    View online with eReader.

    eReader

    Media

    Figures

    Other

    Tables

    Share

    Share

    Share this Publication link

    Share on social media