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Volatility forecasting using time series data mining and evolutionary computation techniques

Published: 07 July 2007 Publication History

Abstract

Traditional parametric methods have limited success in estimating and forecasting the volatility of financial securities. Recent advance in evolutionary computation has provided additional tools to conduct data mining effectively. The current work applies the genetic programming in a Time Series Data Mining framework to characterize the S&P100 high frequency data in order to forecast the one step ahead integrated volatility. Results of the experiment have shown to be superior to those derived by the traditional methods.

References

[1]
Andersen, T. G., Bollerslev, T., Diebold, F. X., and Labys, P., The distribution of realized exchange rate volatility. Journal of the American Statistical Association, no. 96, 42--55, 2001
[2]
Diggs, D. H., Povinelli, R. J., A Temporal Pattern Approach for Predicting Weekly Financial Time Series. Artificial Neural Networks in Engineering, 707--712, 2003

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      cover image ACM Conferences
      GECCO '07: Proceedings of the 9th annual conference on Genetic and evolutionary computation
      July 2007
      2313 pages
      ISBN:9781595936974
      DOI:10.1145/1276958

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      Association for Computing Machinery

      New York, NY, United States

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      Published: 07 July 2007

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      Author Tags

      1. S&P 100
      2. data mining
      3. financial volatility
      4. forecasting
      5. genetic algorithm
      6. genetic programming

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      GECCO '07 Paper Acceptance Rate 266 of 577 submissions, 46%;
      Overall Acceptance Rate 1,669 of 4,410 submissions, 38%

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