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‘Tis the season for annual summaries. While normally articles like this are released at the end of the year, this one took a pinch longer. In entertainment, the race to have the most popular piece of content of the year went right up to the wire. Some of the biggest pieces of content were held until the very end, like Soul (Disney+), The Midnight Sky (Netflix) and Wonder Woman 1984 (HBO Max).
And what a year it was. It’s frankly crazy to think that it was only last March when we were buzzing about Tiger King. That feels like a lifetime ago. A lifetime without any movies to watch at the big screen, but lots to watch at home via streaming, which means we have A LOT of content to parse through.
Unlike in 2019, when we could point to Avengers: Endgame as clearly the most popular film of the year, this year is messy. I’ve collected at least seven different data sets looking at viewing and they all slightly different stories. (Cue the obligatory Rashomon reference.)
Today, we’ll try to sort through it all, starting with the biggest films of the year. Tomorrow we’ll look at the top TV series. To start, I’m going to explain my process. Then, I’ll review the top contenders by platform (think streamer). Finally, I’ll try to compare the most popular data points.
The Process
First, I collected all the potential contenders. I reviewed my past “who won the month” series (July 2020, September 2020, November 2020 or December 2020) for the films that competed for the top prize. Then I reviewed the datecdotes Netflix has released over the last year or so, dropping some of the smaller ones. Then I added any films or shows that 3rd party analytics firms found that I had missed.
As a reminder, this about the United States, not the globe. We have the most data sources for America. However, unlike past articles, I will sprinkle in some global data points. This is simply because a few folks, like Netflix themselves, provide data points for the entire globe.
On the to the contenders. We’ll go in alphabetical order by streamer.
Apple TV+: Greyhound
The big theme this year was responding to Covid-19. On the film side, that meant dealing with the shuttering of theaters around the US and the globe. Greyhound, for example, was initially slated to go to theaters, but once the pandemic hit it, Apple quickly snatched up the rights from Sony.
And given that the coronavirus walloped Apple’s production too, it was essentially the biggest piece of content on the service until Ted Lasso came out.
Was it a hit? Probably, for Apple. Apple TV+ doesn’t release any data about its films and given how small Apple TV+ is, Greyhound didn’t make any waves on other third-party measurements. However, the biggest sign that Greyhound is small is that it didn’t even win its month because it went up against the behemoth that was Hamilton.
Apple TV+’s Final Contenders: None
Disney+: Onward, Hamilton, Mulan and Soul
Disney’s plans were even more disrupted by the shut down of theatrical movies. Instead of just a slate of films headed towards streaming, they had a stream of likely box office juggernauts that could not longer be released in theaters.
They repeatedly tried to figure out how to navigate the pandemic, but ended up switching release strategies multiple times. Onward was released in theaters, but then moved up Disney+ early; Hamilton skipped a 2021 release altogether for a straight-to-Disney+ release, and Disney tried selling Mulan for $30 extra dollars on top of the subscription. It likely didn’t work, so Soul was released straight-to-Disney+, a la Hamilton.
So of these releases, which did the best? Well, it depends how you count. Here is Nielsen’s look at the top films in streaming in the US in 2020, by total hours viewed for the entire year:
What do we make of this? Well, first off, kids enjoy watching and rewatching films. Hence, Frozen II is the most popular film in America according to this metric.
However, if you separate out “adult” films (adult as in for adults, not, you know, pornography) intended for adults, Hamilton is the most viewed of any streaming film for. However, if it had had more time, Soul likely would have made this list, as it vied with Wonder Woman 1984 for the post-Christmas weekend.
Disney’s Final Contenders: Hamilton and Soul
HBO/HBO Max: Tenet and Wonder Woman 1984
Warner Bros was the first studio to attempt to save theaters by releasing Tenet back in August. Given that most theaters were still shuttered, and since Tenet still hasn’t made it to streaming, it never really became popular.
Unfortunately, Covid-19 infections started gaining stream throughout the last quarter, and this forced Warner Bros to put Wonder Woman 1984 straight to HBO Max as a test of breaking the theatrical window. Did the test work?
According to Antenna, another analytics firm: probably. Wonder Woman 1984 drove the most new “sign ups” of any release this year:
Wonder Woman 1984 likely won the coveted Christmas weekend. In fact, a lot of the metrics show that Wonder Woman 1984 was the popular show during Christmas weekend, including Google Trends, ReelGood and Antenna. While I said last week that Soul won on the film side, I now think it was closer to a tie between Wonder Woman 1984 and Soul. More folks watched Wonder Woman; more folks liked Soul.
HBO’s Final Contender: Wonder Woman 1984
Hulu: Palm Springs and Run
Disney+ wasn’t the only studio shifting films previously intended for theaters to streaming, Hulu brought its pricy Sundance acquisition Palm Springs to its service in July, skipping theaters entirely.
But Hulu wasn’t done. In November, Hulu released the buzzy Run during Thanksgiving weekend. It also released Happiest Season in November, another Sony film skipping theaters.
For both Run and Palm Springs, Hulu was quick to tell us these were some of their most popular films of all-time. Did they provide any specific numbers? Of course not. So should we consider them for the top prize? Probably not. Here’s ReelGood’s look at the top opening weekends of Q4, and you can see that Wonder Woman 1984 and Soul clearly outpaced Run:
Hulu’s Final Contenders: None
Netflix: Too many to count
We’ve discarded a lot of potential films so far, and that’s because frankly Netflix is the biggest streamer who launches the buzziest films. (Until Disney and HBO Max came long, frankly.)
Since Netflix is the largest streamer, we have the most data point to chew through. According to Netflix, these are the biggest films by the number of folks who watched 2 minutes around the globe.
However, Netflix hasn’t told us how well a few other potentially big films have done because they were just released. As the weekly top ten data shows, Hubie Halloween did really well in October for Netflix, earning the highest “top ten score” of the year.
In addition to Nielsen’s top ten list by total viewing, Nielsen also releases weekly top ten lists. On that metric, The Christmas Chronicles 2 had the largest opening weekend of any Netflix film.
So who should compete for the top prize? I’ll use any film that “won” a metric. Extraction had the largest datecdote (and most IMDb ratings/score), Christmas Chronicles 2 won Nielsen’s opening weekend, Hubie Halloween won the top ten list and Spenser Confidential had the most total minutes during the year. The toughest omission here is The Old Guard.
Netflix’s Final Contenders: Extraction, Spenser Confidential, The Christmas Chronicles 2 and Hubie Halloween
Amazon Prime Video: Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
For most of the year, Prime Video was quiet in the film department. Then they purchased the rights to the Borat sequel, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm, and it’s clearly their biggest film to date. It was able to take over the news cycle when a former mayor/presidential candidate was caught with his hands in his pants. So that’s their clear candidate for the top films.
Prime Video’s Final Contenders: Borat Subsequent Movie Film
So What Film Won 2020?
There are a few ways to look at this. But let’s start with our favorite look, Google Trends:
These were the top five films by their peaks. Interestingly, for all their viewership, Netflix films just don’t resonate as highly at their peaks with search interest. Extraction leads the pack with a 16, but then Christmas Chronicles 2 was the lowest at 11. (For those curious. The Old Guard, Hubie Halloween and Spenser Confidential were all in the teens compared to Hamilton.)
When it comes to popularity, Soul is probably the winner due to its high rating and high number of reviews, along with strong Google Trends performance.
The last big contender is Wonder Woman 1984. It wasn’t released as long as Hamilton, so it never had a shot to win Nielsen’s total viewing crown. However, Reelgood said it was the biggest film released in Q4 and ScreenEngine—another analytics firm—said it was the biggest opening weekend in 2020. Like Soul it had a lot of reviews, but unlike Soul it only has a 5.5 rating.
Final call?
Hamilton wins the year.
The winner here in terms of raw interest is clearly Hamilton. This matches the US-only Nielsen data, which said Hamilton was the most watched non-kids film in the US in 2020. The only weakness in the case for Hamilton is that it wasn’t reviewed that many times on IMDb. It scored the highest of any of our contenders at an 8.6, but it has a third as many reviews as Extraction’s 155,000 reviews. Still, when you add it all up, Hamilton wins the year.
It’s close, but it’s the most well-liked film that was likely watched by the most people in the US.
Given its message about the founding of our country in such a turbulent time, this feels right.
The Entertainment Strategy Guy writes under this pseudonym at his eponymous website. A former exec at a streaming company, he prefers writing to sending emails/attending meetings, so he launched his own website. Sign up for his newsletter at Substack for regular thoughts and analysis on the business, strategy and economics of the media and entertainment industry.
