The Washington Commanders have a new coach. They have a new quarterback. But will the results be the same old song? Here are the Washington Commanders bold predictions for the 2024 NFL season.
It’s easy to write off the Commanders. While Dan Quinn should infuse the organization with enthusiasm and hope, it still comes down to talent in the NFL. And the Commanders are lacking in several important areas. It seems a bit foolhardy to enter the season with high expectations.
But that doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be excitement for the fans. And if some of these bold predictions come true, who knows how far Quinn can steer this ship?
Commanders QB Jayden Daniels will total 4,500 yards
Keep in mind how bold this prediction actually is. The NFL record for total yards by a rookie quarterback is held by Cam Newton. He cut loose for 4,784 yards in 2011. Newton did it with 4,051 yards passing, even though his touchdown-to-interception ratio failed to pop at 21-to-17. The 706 rushing yards came with 14 added touchdowns.
The reason Daniels will have a shot at 4,500 total yards is because he will throw it a lot. That’s because the Commanders will trail in many games. Daniels’ yardage total will soar because of volume. The prediction assumes 17 games for Daniels with 230 yards per game. That puts him at 3,910.
With a per-game rushing average of 35 yards, Daniels would collect the needed 600 yards to bump him over 4,500. There are a lot of factors here, not the least being a healthy season and being consistent enough to not get yanked from the starting lineup by Quinn. And that will take good play, according to sports.yahoo.com.
“He has to play his position well and be a great teammate,” Quinn said. “He doesn’t have to be the leader of the team.”
Quinn added that Daniels may still grow into that role.
“It was interesting knowing that if you go draft somebody, they don’t have to be the (vocal) team leader right away. If you push somebody into leadership who’s not ready or you anoint somebody that’s not a leader, both of those can go badly. It has to be earned and proven and demonstrated. It usually works its way out if somebody has those traits and you push it and develop it.”
Commanders will finish above .500
Folks, this is a very bold prediction. But this isn’t 13-4. This is the bare minumun: 9-8. And it comes from finding wins. So let’s see where they are.
One of the embarrassments for the Commanders franchise is the way they’ve played against the New York Giants. Going back to 2013, the Commanders are 6-15-1. And the Giants have had some stinker teams in that stretch. This year, with a quality head coach, the Commanders will sweep the Giants.
Another embarrassment is a 3-11 mark against the Eagles. Washington won’t sweep the Eagles, but give the Commanders one win. The Commanders will also find a way to split with the Cowboys. They may have to kidnap CeeDee Lamb, but maybe they can win even if he goes crazy against them, as usual. This gives the Commanders a 4-2 division record. Not too shabby!
The other five wins come from a season-opening triumph against Tampa Bay, a Week 4 win at Arizona, a Week 7 takedown of Carolina, a Week 13 conquest of the Titans, and a Week 17 upset of the Falcons, who could be pretty good this year.
If the Commanders can’t get to nine wins because they split with the Giants and lose twice to Dallas, they’ll have to clip the Bears in Week 8 and take down the Saints on the road in Week 15. In any of these scenarios, they’ll go 0-4 against AFC North beasts Baltimore, Cleveland, Cincinnati, and Pittsburgh.
Commanders defense will rank in top half of league
Considering the Commanders enter 2024 ranked No. 31 in the NFL, this will take some doing. This isn’t just because Quinn has taken over, although that’s a big part of it. What will make this happen is the Commanders’ aggressive play.
When a defense takes chances, big plays happen. They either go for good or for bad, but they happen. Washington will make more good plays than bad ones, enough to push their numbers into the top 20 and barely edge into the No. 15 or No. 16 position when all is settled.
Bobby Wagner’s steady play will help, and the Commanders must have bounce-back seasons with Jonathan Allen and Daron Payne. If those guys pressure opposing quarterbacks, the Commanders will make things happen on defense. Quinn liked these guys from Day 1, according to Sports Illustrated.
“I'll start with the defense because that's unfortunately sometimes where my eyes go first,” Quinn said. “But, I would say man was I impressed by the inside of the defense, with the defensive tackles. Knowing that it starts up front on both sides, man, defensive line and offensive line, so that was the spot that jumped out to me, the defensive tackles.”
Allen said Quinn brings competition among the players, according to commanders.com.
“He's going to challenge us every day and he brings a lot of energy,” Allen said. “As a coach, when he first came in, I asked a lot of guys around the league about him. I haven't had one bad thing said about him. Everyone who's ever played for him has loved it, and so far, I've been loving it.”
Austin Ekeler will score double-digit touchdowns
First off, Ekeler will have competition in the scoring department. Brian Robinson Jr. and Daniels will get their share of rushing scores. So for Ekeler to reach double digits, he’ll need at least five scores in the passing game.
That’s going to happen because the Commanders will deploy Ekeler in a variety of ways, according to essentiallysports.com.
“I feel like I’ve been a Swiss army knife,” Ekeler said. “Whatever you put me in, whatever role it is, I can play that role. What do you need me to do? Do you need me to carry the ball for you, catch the ball for you, play in the screen game? I’ll still strap up there and go play some Gunner on punt team if they want to use me out there. I have a lot of skill sets and I could be used in a multitude of ways. I feel like I’m the quarterback’s best friend.”
Some may question what Ekeler has left in the tank. But at age 29, he probably has at least two good seasons remaining in his legs. He won’t catch 107 passes like he did in 2022, but he doesn’t need that volume to find the end zone. Look for Ekeler to be especially dangerous for the Commanders in the red zone.
WR Luke McCaffrey will get rookie-of-the-year votes
If you wanna go bold, let’s go bold. With the trade of Jahan Dotson, McCaffrey basically became the second-best threat at wide receiver.
The reason McCaffrey could get into the top-rookie conversation is volume. His target share likely went up when Dotson departed. But here’s the main thing. At 6-foot-2, he can be a mismatch for slot corners. This could show up brightly in the red zone.
So if McCaffrey gets to the 70-catch, five-TD level, he’s in the mix. Zay Flowers (77 grabs for 858 yards and five scores) received votes last year. Jayden Reed also got a vote with 64-793-8 numbers. Those totals are within McCaffrey’s reach if the Commanders don’t bring in a new receiver via trade.
Quinn already had McCaffrey in the No. 2 receiver mix before Dotson got traded, according to nbcsports.com.
“There are a lot of guys that are really battling,” Quinn said. “I’ve been really impressed with Olamide (Zaccheaus), I thought he’s had a really strong camp. Looking forward to getting Luke some extra work into here.”
The opportunity is there. McCaffrey simply has to grab it. Some have downgraded McCaffrey for a lack of elite speed and the inability to run picture-perfect routes and create separation. However, he likely won't see a lot of matchups against elite cornerbacks — unless he shines enough to cause defensive coordinators to move defensive pieces around for a specific game plan. McCaffrey seems to have enough talent to perform at a high level against the type of defenders he will see.
Plus, whatever analysts have seen from McCaffrey this far, it's a version of a player without a lot of experience at the receiver position. McCaffrey, a former quarterback, should get better as he grows into the position and into the NFL.
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