Kpler

Downside awaits for oil prices next year as balances weaken Our latest analysis reveals a weakening in global #oil balances, primarily driven by downward revisions in Chinese oil demand due to underwhelming economic activity. While we anticipate stronger Asian demand in Q4, an increase in #OPEC+ supply combined with lower global refinery runs is likely to encourage surpluses over the first five months of next year. On another note, the situation in Libya, where 70% of output is disrupted, may persist longer than the market currently expects. Additionally, the potential for upcoming Fed rate cuts could provide a slight boost to prices in the near term. Meanwhile, market dynamics are shifting, with Brent backwardation steepening and Dubai's narrowing, driving the Brent-Dubai EFS spread to $3.2/bbl—the highest since October 2023—effectively limiting the West-to-East arbitrage. #kpler #OilMarket #GlobalDemand

A breath of fresh air for refinery margins at the end of Q3 The current landscape is challenging, with margins under pressure, particularly in #Europe and #Asia. This has led to the possibility of deeper run cuts beyond what was originally planned for scheduled maintenance. However, there is a silver lining as margins are expected to improve in the near term, offering a potential boost to the market. #Gasoil appears to be the most likely beneficiary, with a tightening balance across the West of #Suez presenting a good opportunity for exporters. Despite this positive outlook, the improvement in #margins is expected to be short-lived, as rising processing rates towards the end of Q4, driven by new setups and enhanced operations, may limit the gains. Navigating these shifts requires strategic planning and agility. Stay tuned for more updates with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh

China continues to buy Brazilian, shunning US soybean Soybean shipments to China remain strong, with line-ups for September and October arrivals already nearing 7 million metric tons (Mt) each month. According to Kpler predictive data South American shipments for August, September and October are poised to break records. However, shipments from the United States currently account for less than 0.3 Mt of these line-ups, with U.S. new crop soybean sales ranking as the third-lowest in recent history, only surpassing the two trade-war years. Brazil remains the largest supplier to China, followed by Argentina and Uruguay at a significant distance. #kpler

Expanded Deutsche Ostsee LNG terminal receives commissioning cargo Deutsche Ostsee LNG terminal in Mukran, Germany, received its first cargo after expanding with a second FSRU, the Neptune. The 174,000 m3 Hellas Diana LNG tanker discharged its load from Texas-based Freeport LNG yesterday. The expansion boosts the terminal's capacity from 5.2 to 13.5 billion m3, with both FSRUs performing independent regasification, linked by a cryogenic transfer system. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/ddjDqkq7 

Join us at the APAC Insight Forum 2024 on 9 September in Singapore when we connect industry experts to discuss how recent geopolitical and economic developments are shaping the future of commodity markets. We’ll have Jonathan L., Director of Commodity Research, (Macroeconomic outlook) talking about the impact of US elections and the uncertain growth in China. Viktor Katona, Head of Oil Analysis, (Crude oil markets) presenting the OPEC+ policy outlook and discussing demand changes. Go Katayama, M.S. Katayama, Principal Insight Analyst - LNG & Natural Gas, (Natural gas and LNG market outlook 2025) discussing the outlook for European winter and demand in Asia. Andon Pavlov,  Head of Downstream Analysis, (Oil products and refining) discussing the progress of new refining capacity. Date & Timing: 9 September, 9.15am to 1.00pm Venue: Andaz Hotel, Singapore, SGP Don’t miss the opportunity to gain essential insights into the trends that will define the coming year and beyond. Register here: https://lnkd.in/dNq-Gm5s

Is it time for the market to reevaluate its geopolitical risk premium? Despite strong summer demand, #oil prices are bearish due to weak economic data from China, Europe, and the US. However, rising tensions in the Middle East, Ukraine, and Libya could change the market dynamic. Libya's potential supply disruption, removing nearly 1 Mbd, has already pushed Brent above $80/bbl. If the shutdown is enforced, prices could rise further, boosting light sweet crude differentials and tightening the WTI-Brent spread, with US exporters potentially benefiting even as Europe’s demand peaks for the year. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/dG8sA4Gg #kpler

Kpler VP Power Emeric de Vigan will be speaking at the upcoming London Winter Symposium hosted by Atmospheric G2. After a few years off, this highly regarded event is making its return on 24 October, and we are pleased to be part of it. Emeric will be sharing his specialist market insights alongside Todd Crawford's European Winter Seasonal Forecast. Registration is now OPEN, but space is LIMITED. Don't miss out—secure your spot today: https://lnkd.in/eNV7DXqZ

Kpler Identifies Third Vessel at Arctic LNG 2 Train 1 Using radar satellite imagery, Kpler has identified a third vessel moored at Arctic LNG 2’s Train 1 as of August 25. We believe this vessel to be the newly sanctioned Everest Energy, which spoofed its position during the port call, falsely reporting to be 1,300 km west of the installation where it was actually located. This follows previous loadings aboard Pioneer and Asya Energy. As highlighted in our recent Kpler Insight webinar on Arctic LNG 2, Everest Energy was clearly identified as the next loading candidate. Current positioning shows the vessel is in the Gulf of Ob. We continue to closely monitor vessel positions using a combination of #AIS, satellite, and radar imagery. With Train 1 operating at 50% capacity, Arctic #LNG 2 is currently limited to a maximum of four loadings per month. Stay tuned for more updates. #kpler

LNG carrier Pioneer (9256602), which loaded cargo from Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 project, recently met with New Energy (9324277) just north of the Suez Canal to perform a ship-to-ship (STS) transfer. While STS transfers at sea are uncommon and more complex for #LNG, they are often observed with Russian crude oil tankers. Pioneer travelled past Norway into southern Europe and circled near Egypt’s Port Said before manipulating its AIS transponder on August 22. New Energy arrived from the south via the Suez Canal but has been off the AIS range since August 26 - and it doesn’t appear on satellite imagery along its reported trajectory. Kpler data science team has identified and located both vessels performing an STS operation, as shown in the image below. While Pioneer was included in the U.S. State Department’s sanctions on August 23, New Energy remains unsanctioned but is likely to attract U.S. authorities' attention. Kpler tracks such events extensively as part of our dedicated risk and compliance services. #kpler

Kpler Head of Oil Analysis Viktor Katona notes that the engine failure of the Sredina this morning could affect Libya’s fuel supply. "In addition to clogging a crucial waterway, the immediate impact will likely be on Libya's fuel consumption," Katona commented on the incident involving the 22-year-old Panama-flagged tanker, which caused delays through the Bosphorus Strait. The Sredina is owned by Srediste Shipping LLC, a UAE-headquartered shipping company that also owns the Magni Alexa product tanker. Both have been carrying exclusively Russian origin goods in 2024 to date.