Kpler

German coal burn recovery potential limited for winter 2024-25 As we head into the winter season, #Germany's coal-fired power generation is projected to rebound modestly from last winter’s multi-year lows. October data indicates that hard-coal-fired generation has been lower than 2023 levels due to increased power imports and a larger share of lignite in the thermal energy mix. However, as the winter progresses, coal generation is expected to make a mild recovery. This uptick is driven in part by higher margins for coal-fired generation compared to gas, creating favorable conditions for #coal in the energy market. While a colder-than-expected winter could marginally increase coal demand, the overall annual rise in demand is likely to remain limited. According to Kpler Insight, even a 10% increase in heating-degree days above seasonal norms would have a modest effect on overall coal demand. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #Kpler #energymarket

High-risk Ship-to-Ship (STS) transfers are increasingly concerning, particularly in emerging hotspots such as Khor Al Zubair, Singapore's Eastern Outer Ports Limits (EOPL), and Malta Lightering area. These regions are witnessing a rise in operations with vessels connecting to sanctioned or restricted cargo. Do you want to learn more? Download the full report here: https://lnkd.in/dM6knazE #kpler #sanctions #STS

BP makes “good progress” on Greater tortue Ahmeyim FLNG's start-up BP has announced progress on the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim (GTA) floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) project during its recent earnings call. All equipment is now in place, marking a crucial step towards operational readiness. During the quarter, #BP successfully brought in a cooldown #LNG cargo to pre-commission the facility. The British Sponsor LNG tanker arrived at the FLNG plant on September 26, after remaining in close proximity since September 1. This vessel carried LNG sourced from the 15 mtpa Corpus Christi LNG plant in the United States and is currently still positioned near the Gimi FLNG unit. Looking ahead, the next milestone involves introducing natural gas from the wellheads into the floating production storage and offloading unit (FPSO) and the pipelines that link to the LNG plant. While BP did not provide specific comments on the expected start-up timeline, the company previously indicated that #gas production is anticipated to commence in the next 3-4 months, likely around late October to late November. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #kpler

Upcoming Webinar: ICE and Kpler - Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook Join Reid I'Anson, Kpler’s Macroeconomist, and Joshua Starnes, Director of Business Development at #ICE, for an in-depth session exploring the latest trends shaping the energy and macro markets across the US, EU, and other key regions. They will demonstrate Kpler data in ICE Connect and provide a comprehensive global macroeconomic outlook. ▪️ Date: Thursday, October 31 ▪️ Time: 11:00 AM ET Register now: https://lnkd.in/dVgczUCA #kpler #energy #globaltrade

The first round is over – but not for long: what’s next for the Iran-Israel conflict? As the first round of the Iran-Israel conflict concludes, attention shifts to the strategic implications of recent developments. Israel's response to #Iran's October 1st attack aligned closely with our expectations, focusing on military installations while carefully avoiding nuclear and oil facilities. In the immediate term, market dynamics are expected to pivot toward fundamental factors. The price differentials for #crude grades destined for Israel, including CPC, BTC, and Rabi, may experience slight strengthening due to sustained Israeli demand. Concurrently, Iranian crude supplies are anticipated to remain robust at approximately 1.6 million barrels per day for the foreseeable future. Looking ahead, both nations are likely to adopt a cautious approach, with significant actions postponed until after the #US presidential election. While the initial wave of escalation may have subsided, this does not suggest a cessation of conflict. A geopolitical premium is expected to re-emerge, influenced by the outcomes of the upcoming election and external factors, such as Russia's ongoing support for Iran. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://brnw.ch/21wOcJ5 #Kpler #Israel

US corn and soybean exports are experiencing significant growth, reflecting strong market dynamics. Recent data from Kpler indicates a notable uptick in US soybean export shipments, aligning with seasonal trends. The US remains the sole major supplier of soybeans until Brazilian new crop availability in late January, contributing to increased shipment forecasts. Additionally, US #corn exports are on the rise after a seasonal dip, supported by robust supply and demand fundamentals. Kpler Insight projects exports to exceed 62.5 million tons for the 2024/25 season, an increase of at least 4 million tons year-over-year. This week, corn sales reached 3.6 million tons, marking the highest weekly total in over three years. Total outstanding sales now stand at 17.5 million tons, up 4.5 million tons compared to last year. These trends underscore a positive outlook for US agricultural exports as we move forward. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://brnw.ch/21wOaqo #Kpler #soybean #usaexports

Earlier this week, we hosted our Risk & Compliance Briefing in London, showcasing #Kpler’s new offering that’s setting new standards for transparency in compliant trading. With satellite imagery now verifying dark #STS transfers, we’re empowering the industry to evaluate risk with clarity and speed. Key insights from our team: Jean-Charles Gordon: Our latest solution helps clients assess risk exposure more effectively through comprehensive fleet views, bringing transparency to complex compliance landscapes. Dimitris Ampatzidis: With 8% of the global fleet now grey/shadow or sanctioned, risk levels have increased by 60% in critical transfer zones like Malta and Khor Al Zubair. Ana Subasic: #ArcticLNG2 remains central to market attention, with AIS spoofing and dark STS transfers on the rise as #sanctions evolve. Thanks to all who joined us in London! Our next R&C briefing event will be in Washington, DC, on Monday, November 18, where we will explore the world of maritime risks, sanctions, and regulatory compliance. Register now here: https://lnkd.in/dwirVHxi

Yesterday, Viktor Katona, Head of Oil Analysis at Kpler, discussed the impact of the #USelection outcome on global commodities markets, in partnership with Financial Times.  As we count down the days before the US presidential elections, #Kpler has prepared comprehensive reports diving deeper into this topic. Get the full picture: https://lnkd.in/e4vnVC3f You can access a link to the recording in the comments below 👇

Russia’s sanctioned Arctic LNG 2 plant has shut down: sources On October 11, Novatek’s first 6.6 mtpa train at the #ArcticLNG2 plant halted production, according to sources, marking a pivotal moment amid escalating sanctions. Since August, the plant has loaded eight #LNG cargoes, but finding buyers has proven challenging, even with significant discounts likely offered. Four vessels—the Pioneer, Asya Energy, Nova Energy, and Everest Energy—remain on the water, while previous shipments have discharged into floating storage units in Murmansk and Kamchatka. “A shutdown reveals two pressing issues: limited buyer appetite for Arctic LNG 2 cargoes and the unavailability of an ice-capable Arc7 vessel for winter deliveries,” says Ana Subasic, LNG & natural gas market analyst at Kpler Insight. Ana added that the project could restart after the winter season when the Northern Sea Route reopens - but only if there is buyer interest. As winter approaches, we’ll continue monitoring the impacts of #sanctions, demand, and logistical constraints on Arctic LNG 2’s operations. Stay ahead of the market with Kpler Insight: https://lnkd.in/dParFvuh #Kpler #energy #shipping #naturalgas

We are excited to attend the China International Oil and Gas Trade Congress (CIOGTC) in Shanghai on November 8th & 9th! Join us to hear our keynote speakers and learn how Kpler’s data & analytics can help your business mitigate risk and maximize returns. Visit our booth for live demonstrations of our products and see how real-time insights into global #oil & #gas markets can drive smarter decision-making. Don’t miss out on what thousands of commodity market professionals rely on every day! Book your meeting here: https://lnkd.in/dyfhK6Vt #kpler #CIOGTC