Let’s be real
While the environmental review may not be welcome news for SpaceX, let's be real for a moment. The company has a lot of work to do before Starship can reach the Moon. First and foremost, Watson-Morgan said NASA wants to see SpaceX string together dozens of Starship launches with reliable performance from the rocket's methane-fueled engines. SpaceX must also prove it can refuel Starship in orbit and create a a hospitable crew cabin for astronauts.
These are serious engineering problems that will take time to solve, but SpaceX's track record suggests its engineers can solve them. SpaceX also needs time to actually build the new Starship launch pads. While the skeleton of a Starship launch tower is in place at LC-39A, the site doesn't yet have any of the propellant storage or fueling infrastructure needed for launch operations.
SpaceX's portion of the Artemis program, while significant, is just one piece of the puzzle. Axiom Space, another NASA contractor, must complete the development of a new spacesuit before astronauts make the first Artemis lunar landing. There's no assurance that NASA's chronically delayed Space Launch System rocket and Orion spacecraft, which will ferry astronauts to the vicinity of the Moon to meet up with the Starship lander, will be ready for a lunar landing mission in the next few years.
The schedule for the Artemis III lunar landing in 2026 seems completely unrealistic, which has prompted NASA officials to consider revamping the flight plan for Artemis III to have an Orion crew capsule dock with Starship in low-Earth orbit. This would be achievable well before a lunar landing mission, allowing NASA and SpaceX to reduce risk for the later Moon flight and close a potential years-long gap between Artemis missions, which could threaten political support for the program.
There is widespread agreement among government and industry officials that the FAA's commercial space office is underfunded to meet the demands of the rapidly growing space industry. Last fall, SpaceX called for Congress to add money to the FAA's budget to double the staff of the commercial space office. The FAA is charged with ensuring public safety during commercial rocket launches, along with compliance with environmental laws.
"The fact that it can take years to go through this process is not a good thing in terms of how fast commercial space and other activities would like to be able to go," Nield said.
Last fall, a SpaceX official told Ars that FAA licensing was a "critical path item for the Artemis program." Before the second Starship test flight last November, SpaceX waited a couple of months for the FAA to issue a launch license.
"In terms of timing, yes, environmental reviews can often be the long pole," Nield said. "I don't think this will end up being the critical factor in the schedule for Artemis missions."
Let's imagine a scenario in which SpaceX has proven it can refuel Starship in orbit and has completed an uncrewed landing on the Moon, and the spacesuits, the SLS rocket, and Orion spacecraft are ready for a lunar landing mission. But what if SpaceX lacks FAA approval to launch Starship from Florida or runs into lengthy construction delays?
In that scenario, Watson-Morgan said it's "conceivable" that SpaceX could launch all of the Starship tanker and depot missions from two launch pads in Texas. "But that is not the current plan," she said. "The plan is to have LC-39A at KSC up and operational. SpaceX is kind of a just-in-time, rapid-iteration-type company, so they are focused right now on the pads at Starbase."
"There are different ways you could do this, and SpaceX has a history of moving pretty fast in putting together places to operate, so we'll see how that comes out," Nield said. "There are a lot of things that have to happen right in order to meet the kinds of schedules that people are aiming toward."
But for lunar landing campaigns, NASA's preference is clearly to cycle between Starship launches in Texas and Florida.
"On Artemis III, we anticipate using at least two of the launch sites: one at KSC and one at Starbase," Watson-Morgan said.
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