The world’s toughest race starts Saturday, and it’s delightfully hard to call this year

Remco Evenepoel

• Belgium
• 24 years old
• Soudal Quick-Step
• Odds: +1400

Full confession: I'm a big Remco fan. Unfortunately, of the four highest-favored riders, he has the lowest odds. That's not because of a lack of talent but because of a lack of pedigree—he has won the Vuelta just once, and he has never raced the Tour. Evenepoel also has yet to fully prove himself in the highest and hardest mountain stages and demonstrate consistency across a three-week tour.

So what's to like? He's young and brash, and he's a real racer. Like Pogačar, he is a bit less calculating than the others and more prone to making long attacks, far from the finish. He is very strong and probably the best time trialist. But how will he fare in the high mountains?

Evenepoel is the real wildcard of the bunch because we just don't know how he'll perform on cycling's biggest stage. He is a classic high-ceiling, low-floor rider. I could make a case for him winning and a case for him finishing 10th. But his talent is undeniable.

There are some other concerns besides a lack of consistency in results. Although he wasn't as badly injured as Vingegaard in the Basque race crash, Evenepoel did break a collarbone and spent a couple of days in the hospital. Another issue is that he comes to the Tour with a team that is not as strong as the others. He does not have as many elite climbing "domestique" riders as the other main contenders.

Anyone else?

Other riders could conceivably win the race, but the scenarios become increasingly far-fetched. Pogačar has a massively strong team, and two of his teammates—Brit Adam Yates and Spaniard Juan Ayuso—can climb very well. Both are solid candidates to finish among the top three and make the final podium.

For Americans, there is intrigue as well. Colorado native Sepp Kuss, who improbably won the Vuelta last year, is out of this year's race with an illness. That means Vingegaard is down his most capable ally in the mountains.

However, there is another younger American on Vingegaard's team, Matteo Jorgenson. He is just 24 years old and has impressively won a prestigious one-week race this year in Paris-Nice. Then, earlier this month, Jorgenson finished second to Roglič in a critical pre-Tour race called the Critérium du Dauphiné. He lost by just 8 seconds. Jorgenson could be a super support rider for Vingegaard or assume team leadership if he falters.

Jorgenson is potentially the best American grand tour rider since the extremely talented but flawed Lance Armstrong won (and then lost) seven Tours de France. I have gone through this whole article without mentioning doping, but it is ever there, lingering in the background of cycling. None of the riders in this article have been popped for using performance-enhancing drugs. They're all regularly tested. But who knows?

What I can say for sure is that they're all a lot nicer than Armstrong was. He could be a real bastard to other riders in the peloton. By and large, the modern riders are more refined in their behavior. Until the racing starts in earnest, at least. Then it's an epic battle. Which, my goodness, I can't wait for.

Is it Saturday yet?