Weather Prediction Center

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 00Z Sat Oct 05 2024

...There are Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories over parts of
Southern California and the Southwest...

...Moisture and the chance for showers and thunderstorms returns to the
Gulf Coast...

The big weather storyline is the continuation of a very hot summer/early
fall for the Southwest U.S. Most of the southern deserts of California and
Arizona are under an Excessive Heat Warning. The Central Valley in
California is also quite hot and Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories are in effect. In the southern deserts, high temperatures in
the 100s and even low 110s will be commonplace for the next couple of
days. The Central Valley of California can expect to see highs in the
100s. Remember, heat is the deadliest weather phenomenon in the U.S.!
People spending more time outdoors or in a building without cooling are at
an increased risk of heat-related illness. Visit
www.weather.gov/safety/heat and check local media and government websites
for information on cooling centers.

The Gulf Coast and Florida Peninsula will see the return of widespread
showers and thunderstorms by Thursday and persist into the weekend as
moisture streams northward with an area of disturbed weather in the Gulf
of Mexico. The day 1-3 QPF forecast does allow for some areas to see a
couple of inches of rainfall, but there is not a solid signal in the
models for any localized areas to see excessive rainfall or flooding
threat at least in the short term. However, disturbed weather does look to
persist in the Gulf of Mexico beyond the short term outlook.

Looking across the rest of the nation, a cold front should die out across
the eastern U.S. as it moves through the area, but should hopefully bring
some clearing conditions to a rather soggy Mid-Atlantic and Appalachia for
Thursday. Highs should be pleasant and mildly above average in the middle
70s. A cold front should move out of the High Plains and sweep through
the central part of the country and bring a brief cool down as high
temperatures fall into the 70s. This frontal boundary will aid in gusty
winds and elevated fire danger through this evening. The front will then
progress eastward and bring the chance for showers by Saturday across the
Northeast. The temperatures in the southern Plains and Texas will remain
warm and above average as many locations will see highs in the middle 90s.

Lastly, Friday into Saturday, the Pacific Northwest will see the return of
rain as the next area of low pressure and accompanied cold front enters
the region.



Wilder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024

...Anomalous heat will persist across the Southwest at least into
the weekend...

...Chances for heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula will
increase into next week...


...Overview...

Guidance continues to show the expected pattern transition from
progressive northern tier flow extending into the weekend toward
an amplifying eastern U.S./Atlantic Coast trough early next week
(with possible New England or vicinity upper low) while a mean
ridge covering much of the West extends into the Plains, producing
an extended period of unseasonably warm to hot weather. Ahead of
the dynamics that will ultimately establish the eastern upper
trough, a front crossing the Great Lakes and Northeast should
produce some organized rain, and possible surface low development
could enhance amounts for parts of New England. Meanwhile, details
remain uncertain within the general Gulf of Mexico evolution
favoring low pressure and heavy rainfall potential. Most guidance
suggests heaviest rainfall will initially stay over the Gulf but
then eventually some of it may spread eastward into Florida. There
may be multiple surface features to focus rainfall, including
combining tropical energies and frontal boundaries in the vicinity.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Aside from typical smaller-scale details, the primary question
mark with the northern stream flow is how upper troughing will
evolve once it reaches eastern North America during the early to
middle part of next week. Although not unanimous, there has been a
majority cluster suggesting that an upper low will close off
somewhere over eastern Canada or New England. This is certainly
plausible with the overall pattern looking more blocky as an upper
ridge strengthens over/near Greenland. CMC runs have been leaning
to the western side of the spread for the overall trough/upper low,
especially in the newer 12Z run, and the newly arriving 12Z ECMWF
has actually flipped to an upper low spinning near and just north
of the Great Lakes as energy digs southeast from the Hudson Bay.
EC-based AI/ML runs for the 00Z cycle tend toward a New
England/Canadian Maritimes upper low on average, though with
spread, and it will be interesting to see if the 12Z versions are
similar or lean more like the 12Z operational EC.

The forecast over and near the Gulf of Mexico continues to have
low predictability due to a combination of smaller-scale features.
One wave may track into the central/east-central Gulf from the
northwestern Caribbean while another feature may evolve over the
western Gulf, with the surface/QPF details also potentially
affected by energy aloft near the western Gulf Coast. These
features are likely to phase early next week as they approach and
interact. Guidance shows the system(s) could linger and meander
over the Gulf even through the first half of next week, though
perhaps beginning to drift eastward with time as guidance shows
some progression of a positively tilted upper trough. This appears
to be a messy evolution as fronts and moisture gradients are also
evident nearby, and some lows may be or become frontal. Continue to
monitor outlooks from the National Hurricane Center for the latest
information on features of interest.

The updated forecast started with a 00Z/06Z operational model
composite early in the period and then transitioned toward a blend
of the 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF and their means late, as the CMC seemed
like an outlier over the east, though the newer 12Z ECMWF
complicates this thinking.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The rainfall forecast for areas along the Gulf Coast during the
weekend continues to be in the proverbial holding pattern, with a
relative majority of guidance keeping most of the significant
totals over the Gulf of Mexico, especially on Saturday. The
guidance messages become more mixed by Sunday. Many models continue
to show potential for heavy rainfall to reach western Florida, with
some trend toward a possible rainfall axis from the Tampa Bay area
south. But this is certainly not unanimous as it may take
additional time for this activity to reach Florida. At the very
least, reasonable consensus of the GFS/ECMWF and their means would
have moisture anomalies increasing over the state as an east-west
front becomes aligned across the peninsula, so some increase in
rainfall on Sunday relative to Saturday seems reasonable. The
question is to what degree. The Days 4-5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks for Saturday-Sunday maintain no risk areas for now, but
with an eye to parts of the Florida Gulf Coast region for possible
introduction of an area on Day 5 if there is further
clustering/continuity in future cycles. The pattern continues to
look favorable for enhanced rainfall over Florida during the first
half of next week with a general area of low pressure expected to
drift into the eastern Gulf and a potentially wavy front still
draped across the peninsula.

Elsewhere, the frontal system reaching the Great Lakes and
Northeast by Sunday-Monday and possible low development near New
England and the Canadian Maritimes thereafter may generate rainfall
of varying intensity. There is still a fairly wide range of
possible QPF totals from the eastern Great Lakes into New England
depending on exactly how this system evolves. A mean frontal zone
with one or more embedded waves should reach near the northern
Pacific Northwest by early-mid week, producing some periods of
mostly light rain and nonzero chances of snow in the highest
elevations.

The strong and persistent upper ridge covering the West and
extending into the Plains will support a lengthy period of well
above normal temperatures over many parts of the western/central
U.S. Highs 10-20F or so above normal will be common, and numerous
daily records for warm minimum and maximum temperatures appear
likely from the southern half of the West into parts of the High
Plains, especially during the weekend but also lingering into early
next week to some extent. Best potential for some highs 20-25F
above normal will be over the central Plains and Midwest on
Saturday and northern Plains by midweek. Above normal temperatures
over most of the East during the weekend should decline to near or
somewhat below normal as upper troughing sets up near the East
Coast. This may lead to frost/freeze concerns across portions of
the Upper Great Lakes region and interior Northeast, with the
timing around the median to a bit late for the first frost/freeze
of the season.


Tate/Rausch


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw

Hawaii Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
356 AM EDT Wed Oct 02 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 00Z Thu Oct 10 2024

Today's guidance is consistent with the general pattern evolution
at the surface but has made some additional changes aloft.
Consensus still shows moderate trades with primarily
mountain/windward shower focus through Thursday. Then there should
be a period of lighter trades Friday through the weekend as fronts
weaken high pressure to the north and upper troughing develops
overhead. This may allow for sea/land breezes to affect the
distribution of rainfall late week during Friday-Sunday. Trades
should rebound to moderate speeds Monday-Wednesday with a return
of windward shower focus as high pressure to the north
strengthens. The 00Z ECMWF has an extraneous mid-latitude system
that breaks the ridge again toward midweek but still shows
increasing trades.

As for flow aloft, recent guidance has been quite diverse and
variable from run to run. Today's notable shift versus 24 hours
ago is toward the axis of the forecast upper trough (with possible
embedded low) staying over or very close to the main islands into
next Tuesday or Wednesday versus being aligned somewhat farther
east. On the positive side, the models and ensembles look more
similar for their details than they have in previous days and the
latest machine learning models also cluster in line with the
dynamical guidance. This helps to increase confidence relative to
previous days but recent history suggests further change is
possible. The current consensus forecast aloft could promote some
enhancement to showers from the weekend into next week, with most
guidance showing relatively higher precipitable water values
around the weekend.

Rausch

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
Day 1
Valid 16Z Wed Oct 02 2024 - 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Sea breeze activity across the FL Peninsula will be the primary
area of precip across the CONUS with only modest signals within the
CAMs/HREF for >3" at any given point this afternoon and evening.
Considering the FFG indices and proposed rainfall rates likely
well-below the threshold necessary, the threat was deemed very low
probability for flash flooding and did not meet the MRGL risk
criteria. The nil ERO was maintained for the D1 forecast.

Kleebauer

Day 1 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/94epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
Day 2
Valid 12Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

The consensus for locally moderate to heavy rainfall remains
steadfast within the latest ensemble and deterministic
interpretations with a bit more emphasis on the Southeast LA
Parishes as the 12z CAMs output. Latest HREF continues to signal a
focused area of 3-5" potential tomorrow afternoon and early evening
in areas along and south of I-10 from near New Orleans through
Biloxi towards Mobile. There's still some discrepancy on the
placement of the local maxima with the highest potential likely
over either St. Bernard or Plaquemines Parishes, both areas that
are very difficult to flood due to the swampy land structures and
sandier soils that limit flash flood potential. A modest theta-E
advection pattern with PWATs running close to 2-2.1" will likely
allow for some convective elements promoting rates between 1-3"/hr,
but the current FFG indices are very pronounced in those parts,
attributing to very low FFG exceedance probabilities in either
1/3/6 hr time frames. Decided against a MRGL addition and
maintained the nil forecast across the CONUS, but this will be an
area to monitor in the next succession of updates as the threat is
non-zero, but currently below 5%.

Kleebauer


Day 2 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/98epoints.txt

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
350 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024
Day 3
Valid 12Z Fri Oct 04 2024 - 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Broad cyclonic flow over the Western Gulf will allow for a modest
advection of deeper moisture and accompanying shower/thunderstorms
activity to protrude inland of Deep South TX on Friday. Current
signature within guidance notes a tongue of elevated instability
within a deep moist layer on the western periphery of the low
pressure pattern over the Gulf. The area of interest resides across
the Lower RGV, mainly within the coastal plain encompassing
Brownsville/South Padre Island/Harlingen. Recent trends maintain
some rainfall in the area with totals bordering 0.75-1.5" with a
few deterministic outputs flirting with the 2"/24-hr marker. The
current signal is likely too "light" to allow for any enhanced
flash flood concerns, however the threat is likely non-zero. Unless
the precip forecast evolves into something greater, this will
likely lie outside the MRGL risk threshold, but wanted to make
mention as this is an area we will continue to monitor. The nil ERO
over the CONUS was carried over in this forecast cycle.

Kleebauer
Day 3 threat area: www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/99epoints.txt

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024


The rainfall forecast for areas along the Gulf Coast during the
weekend continues to be in the proverbial holding pattern, with a
relative majority of guidance keeping most of the significant
totals over the Gulf of Mexico, especially on Saturday. The
guidance messages become more mixed by Sunday. Many models continue
to show potential for heavy rainfall to reach western Florida, with
some trend toward a possible rainfall axis from the Tampa Bay area
south. But this is certainly not unanimous as it may take
additional time for this activity to reach Florida. At the very
least, reasonable consensus of the GFS/ECMWF and their means would
have moisture anomalies increasing over the state as an east-west
front becomes aligned across the peninsula, so some increase in
rainfall on Sunday relative to Saturday seems reasonable. The
question is to what degree. The Days 4-5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks for Saturday-Sunday maintain no risk areas for now, but
with an eye to parts of the Florida Gulf Coast region for possible
introduction of an area on Day 5 if there is further
clustering/continuity in future cycles. The pattern continues to
look favorable for enhanced rainfall over Florida during the first
half of next week with a general area of low pressure expected to
drift into the eastern Gulf and a potentially wavy front still
draped across the peninsula.

Elsewhere, the frontal system reaching the Great Lakes and
Northeast by Sunday-Monday and possible low development near New
England and the Canadian Maritimes thereafter may generate rainfall
of varying intensity. There is still a fairly wide range of
possible QPF totals from the eastern Great Lakes into New England
depending on exactly how this system evolves. A mean frontal zone
with one or more embedded waves should reach near the northern
Pacific Northwest by early-mid week, producing some periods of
mostly light rain and nonzero chances of snow in the highest
elevations.

The strong and persistent upper ridge covering the West and
extending into the Plains will support a lengthy period of well
above normal temperatures over many parts of the western/central
U.S. Highs 10-20F or so above normal will be common, and numerous
daily records for warm minimum and maximum temperatures appear
likely from the southern half of the West into parts of the High
Plains, especially during the weekend but also lingering into early
next week to some extent. Best potential for some highs 20-25F
above normal will be over the central Plains and Midwest on
Saturday and northern Plains by midweek. Above normal temperatures
over most of the East during the weekend should decline to near or
somewhat below normal as upper troughing sets up near the East
Coast. This may lead to frost/freeze concerns across portions of
the Upper Great Lakes region and interior Northeast, with the
timing around the median to a bit late for the first frost/freeze
of the season.


Tate/Rausch

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024


The rainfall forecast for areas along the Gulf Coast during the
weekend continues to be in the proverbial holding pattern, with a
relative majority of guidance keeping most of the significant
totals over the Gulf of Mexico, especially on Saturday. The
guidance messages become more mixed by Sunday. Many models continue
to show potential for heavy rainfall to reach western Florida, with
some trend toward a possible rainfall axis from the Tampa Bay area
south. But this is certainly not unanimous as it may take
additional time for this activity to reach Florida. At the very
least, reasonable consensus of the GFS/ECMWF and their means would
have moisture anomalies increasing over the state as an east-west
front becomes aligned across the peninsula, so some increase in
rainfall on Sunday relative to Saturday seems reasonable. The
question is to what degree. The Days 4-5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks for Saturday-Sunday maintain no risk areas for now, but
with an eye to parts of the Florida Gulf Coast region for possible
introduction of an area on Day 5 if there is further
clustering/continuity in future cycles. The pattern continues to
look favorable for enhanced rainfall over Florida during the first
half of next week with a general area of low pressure expected to
drift into the eastern Gulf and a potentially wavy front still
draped across the peninsula.

Elsewhere, the frontal system reaching the Great Lakes and
Northeast by Sunday-Monday and possible low development near New
England and the Canadian Maritimes thereafter may generate rainfall
of varying intensity. There is still a fairly wide range of
possible QPF totals from the eastern Great Lakes into New England
depending on exactly how this system evolves. A mean frontal zone
with one or more embedded waves should reach near the northern
Pacific Northwest by early-mid week, producing some periods of
mostly light rain and nonzero chances of snow in the highest
elevations.

The strong and persistent upper ridge covering the West and
extending into the Plains will support a lengthy period of well
above normal temperatures over many parts of the western/central
U.S. Highs 10-20F or so above normal will be common, and numerous
daily records for warm minimum and maximum temperatures appear
likely from the southern half of the West into parts of the High
Plains, especially during the weekend but also lingering into early
next week to some extent. Best potential for some highs 20-25F
above normal will be over the central Plains and Midwest on
Saturday and northern Plains by midweek. Above normal temperatures
over most of the East during the weekend should decline to near or
somewhat below normal as upper troughing sets up near the East
Coast. This may lead to frost/freeze concerns across portions of
the Upper Great Lakes region and interior Northeast, with the
timing around the median to a bit late for the first frost/freeze
of the season.


Tate/Rausch

Probabilistic Heavy Snow and Icing Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
223 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 03 2024 - 00Z Sun Oct 06 2024

The probability of significant snow and ice across the CONUS is
less than 10 percent.

Fracasso

Extended Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 2 2024

Valid 12Z Sat Oct 05 2024 - 12Z Wed Oct 09 2024

...Anomalous heat will persist across the Southwest at least into
the weekend...

...Chances for heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula will
increase into next week...


...Overview...

Guidance continues to show the expected pattern transition from
progressive northern tier flow extending into the weekend toward
an amplifying eastern U.S./Atlantic Coast trough early next week
(with possible New England or vicinity upper low) while a mean
ridge covering much of the West extends into the Plains, producing
an extended period of unseasonably warm to hot weather. Ahead of
the dynamics that will ultimately establish the eastern upper
trough, a front crossing the Great Lakes and Northeast should
produce some organized rain, and possible surface low development
could enhance amounts for parts of New England. Meanwhile, details
remain uncertain within the general Gulf of Mexico evolution
favoring low pressure and heavy rainfall potential. Most guidance
suggests heaviest rainfall will initially stay over the Gulf but
then eventually some of it may spread eastward into Florida. There
may be multiple surface features to focus rainfall, including
combining tropical energies and frontal boundaries in the vicinity.


...Guidance/Predictability Assessment...

Aside from typical smaller-scale details, the primary question
mark with the northern stream flow is how upper troughing will
evolve once it reaches eastern North America during the early to
middle part of next week. Although not unanimous, there has been a
majority cluster suggesting that an upper low will close off
somewhere over eastern Canada or New England. This is certainly
plausible with the overall pattern looking more blocky as an upper
ridge strengthens over/near Greenland. CMC runs have been leaning
to the western side of the spread for the overall trough/upper low,
especially in the newer 12Z run, and the newly arriving 12Z ECMWF
has actually flipped to an upper low spinning near and just north
of the Great Lakes as energy digs southeast from the Hudson Bay.
EC-based AI/ML runs for the 00Z cycle tend toward a New
England/Canadian Maritimes upper low on average, though with
spread, and it will be interesting to see if the 12Z versions are
similar or lean more like the 12Z operational EC.

The forecast over and near the Gulf of Mexico continues to have
low predictability due to a combination of smaller-scale features.
One wave may track into the central/east-central Gulf from the
northwestern Caribbean while another feature may evolve over the
western Gulf, with the surface/QPF details also potentially
affected by energy aloft near the western Gulf Coast. These
features are likely to phase early next week as they approach and
interact. Guidance shows the system(s) could linger and meander
over the Gulf even through the first half of next week, though
perhaps beginning to drift eastward with time as guidance shows
some progression of a positively tilted upper trough. This appears
to be a messy evolution as fronts and moisture gradients are also
evident nearby, and some lows may be or become frontal. Continue to
monitor outlooks from the National Hurricane Center for the latest
information on features of interest.

The updated forecast started with a 00Z/06Z operational model
composite early in the period and then transitioned toward a blend
of the 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF and their means late, as the CMC seemed
like an outlier over the east, though the newer 12Z ECMWF
complicates this thinking.


...Weather/Hazards Highlights...

The rainfall forecast for areas along the Gulf Coast during the
weekend continues to be in the proverbial holding pattern, with a
relative majority of guidance keeping most of the significant
totals over the Gulf of Mexico, especially on Saturday. The
guidance messages become more mixed by Sunday. Many models continue
to show potential for heavy rainfall to reach western Florida, with
some trend toward a possible rainfall axis from the Tampa Bay area
south. But this is certainly not unanimous as it may take
additional time for this activity to reach Florida. At the very
least, reasonable consensus of the GFS/ECMWF and their means would
have moisture anomalies increasing over the state as an east-west
front becomes aligned across the peninsula, so some increase in
rainfall on Sunday relative to Saturday seems reasonable. The
question is to what degree. The Days 4-5 Excessive Rainfall
Outlooks for Saturday-Sunday maintain no risk areas for now, but
with an eye to parts of the Florida Gulf Coast region for possible
introduction of an area on Day 5 if there is further
clustering/continuity in future cycles. The pattern continues to
look favorable for enhanced rainfall over Florida during the first
half of next week with a general area of low pressure expected to
drift into the eastern Gulf and a potentially wavy front still
draped across the peninsula.

Elsewhere, the frontal system reaching the Great Lakes and
Northeast by Sunday-Monday and possible low development near New
England and the Canadian Maritimes thereafter may generate rainfall
of varying intensity. There is still a fairly wide range of
possible QPF totals from the eastern Great Lakes into New England
depending on exactly how this system evolves. A mean frontal zone
with one or more embedded waves should reach near the northern
Pacific Northwest by early-mid week, producing some periods of
mostly light rain and nonzero chances of snow in the highest
elevations.

The strong and persistent upper ridge covering the West and
extending into the Plains will support a lengthy period of well
above normal temperatures over many parts of the western/central
U.S. Highs 10-20F or so above normal will be common, and numerous
daily records for warm minimum and maximum temperatures appear
likely from the southern half of the West into parts of the High
Plains, especially during the weekend but also lingering into early
next week to some extent. Best potential for some highs 20-25F
above normal will be over the central Plains and Midwest on
Saturday and northern Plains by midweek. Above normal temperatures
over most of the East during the weekend should decline to near or
somewhat below normal as upper troughing sets up near the East
Coast. This may lead to frost/freeze concerns across portions of
the Upper Great Lakes region and interior Northeast, with the
timing around the median to a bit late for the first frost/freeze
of the season.


Tate/Rausch


Additional 3-7 Day Hazard information can be found on the WPC
medium
range hazards outlook chart at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/threats/threats.php

WPC medium range 500mb heights, surface systems, weather grids,
quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF), excessive rainfall
outlook (ERO), winter weather outlook (WWO) probabilities, heat
indices, and Key Messages can be accessed from:

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst500_wbg.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/5dayfcst_wbg_conus.gif
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/5km_grids/5km_gridsbody.html
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day4-7.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ero
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/pwpf_d47/pwpf_medr.php?day=4
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/heat_index.shtml
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=ovw