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Success and Luck: Good Fortune and the Myth of Meritocracy Hardcover – April 19, 2016
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From New York Times bestselling author and economics columnist Robert Frank, a compelling book that explains why the rich underestimate the importance of luck in their success, why that hurts everyone, and what we can do about it
How important is luck in economic success? No question more reliably divides conservatives from liberals. As conservatives correctly observe, people who amass great fortunes are almost always talented and hardworking. But liberals are also correct to note that countless others have those same qualities yet never earn much. In recent years, social scientists have discovered that chance plays a much larger role in important life outcomes than most people imagine. In Success and Luck, bestselling author and New York Times economics columnist Robert Frank explores the surprising implications of those findings to show why the rich underestimate the importance of luck in success―and why that hurts everyone, even the wealthy.
Frank describes how, in a world increasingly dominated by winner-take-all markets, chance opportunities and trivial initial advantages often translate into much larger ones―and enormous income differences―over time; how false beliefs about luck persist, despite compelling evidence against them; and how myths about personal success and luck shape individual and political choices in harmful ways.
But, Frank argues, we could decrease the inequality driven by sheer luck by adopting simple, unintrusive policies that would free up trillions of dollars each year―more than enough to fix our crumbling infrastructure, expand healthcare coverage, fight global warming, and reduce poverty, all without requiring painful sacrifices from anyone. If this sounds implausible, you'll be surprised to discover that the solution requires only a few, noncontroversial steps.
Compellingly readable, Success and Luck shows how a more accurate understanding of the role of chance in life could lead to better, richer, and fairer economies and societies.
- Print length208 pages
- LanguageEnglish
- PublisherPrinceton University Press
- Publication dateApril 19, 2016
- Dimensions5.7 x 0.9 x 8.6 inches
- ISBN-100691167400
- ISBN-13978-0691167404
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Editorial Reviews
Review
"One of Choice's Outstanding Academic Titles for 2016"
"Honorable Mention for the 2017 PROSE Award in Economics, Association of American Publishers"
"Longlisted for the Financial Times and McKinsey Business Book of the Year 2016"
"The reminder about the important role of luck is welcome." ― Enlightened Economist
"Frank is not just arguing that luck plays an important role in the lives of successful people such as Al Pacino. If that were all he was doing, his book would be engaging but trivial. But it is much more interesting than that."---Tyler Cowen, Financial Times
"A deep and stimulating book."---Tyler Cowen, Marginal Revolution
"Frank's book gives a compelling argument for why we should consider our collective needs more when we look to change society for the better."---Jill Suttie, Psy.D., Greater Good
"Well reasoned, coherent, and compelling--Frank is one of the great writers of economics." ― Fortune
"The most striking of Frank's arguments is a computer-simulated proof of luck's importance, even in very nearly meritocratic situations."---Tim Smith-Laing, Daily Telegraph
"Reading Success and Luck is almost like having a robust conversation over dinner--a simple premise, some explanation, a few examples. . . . It is commendable that he is addressing the problem with an actual solution in mind."---Kris Rothstein, Bookslut
"Frank makes his points persuasively." ― Australian Financial Review
"This is a bold vision and, although controversial, has a good deal more realism than the dangerous siren calls from the left for wage caps or punitive income tax rates for high earners."---Matthew Syed, The Times
"Like any good economist, Frank backs up his argument with studies and statistics; and like any good behavioral economist, he investigates why this obvious fact is so hard for so many Americans to accept, and offers some strategies for overcoming that resistance."---Cory Doctorow, Boing Boing
"Frank points out that for every big winner, there are scores of people who are as skilled, hard-working and intelligent, but came in just behind. The lack of a lucky break can be the difference between wild success and a near miss or worse."---Barry Ritholtz, Bloomberg View
"Success and Luck is an important book: elegantly written, well argued and desisting from self-indulgence in its length."---Tim Wigmore, New Statesman
"The book is diverting and easy to read. . . . He makes a compelling case for the role of luck in much of the wealth held by people in developed societies."---Ouida Taaffe, Financial World
"[An] occasionally humorous, yet most insightful book." ― David Marx Book Reviews
"Robert Frank's enjoyable treatise, Success and Luck, might be the better bet for fixing society. His case histories show that while winners often need talent and hard work to succeed, they also need simple, dumb luck."---Debora MacKenzie, New Scientist
"How important is luck in monetary success?. . . . Is luck as important as hard work in becoming successful?. . . . These important questions--we ponder them often--that economists rarely bother to study. Except for one of my favourite economists Robert Frank."---Ross Gittins, Sydney Morning Herald
"What makes Success and Luck different is that Frank connects the importance of luck in determining personal economic success with a set of larger policy recommendations."---Dr. Joshua Kim, Inside Higher Ed
"Success and Luck is written in a clear, engaging and personable style, not least because it is littered with anecdotes and stories illustrating the huge effects that tiny chance events can have. I found examples from Frank's own life especially compelling."---Dan McArthur, LSE Review of Books
"Though hard work, effort, and schooling are important factors, Frank demonstrates convincingly that pure, random luck also matters (a lot). . . . This book is well reasoned, coherent, and compelling--Frank is one of the great writers of economics." ― Choice
"Robert Frank's recent book, Success and Luck, is an engaging, partly autobiographical account of why and how most Americans underestimate the role of luck in economic success. Frank sees our tendency to overlook the role of luck as a cultural bias that helps explain why we are less likely than Europeans to favor high taxes on the rich and generous benefits for the poor."---Christopher Jencks, The American Interest
"An important book, which takes a plausible approach to a difficult problem of genuine significance. It deserves to be widely read and publicly discussed."---James Case, SIAM News
"Frank makes a strong case for his account of the many ways that chance contributes to social outcomes. In a rational, fact-based world, policy makers would pay attention."---David A. Kirsch, Administrative Science Quarterly
"A very courageous book. . . . Luck, and lucky encounters are realistically important and a great part of our life."---Anna Maria Polidori, Al Femminile
"Praise for the previous edition: "Frank deftly weaves personal anecdotes. . . With fascinating case studies. . . . Fortune, Frank says, favors the fortunate. And not acknowledging that can have unlucky consequences, for both policymakers and businesses."" ― Financial Times
"Well-crafted and enjoyable to read."---Alain Trannoy, Journal of Economic Inequality
Review
"Building a successful life requires a deep conviction that you are the author of your own destiny. Building a successful society requires an equally deep conviction that no one's destiny is their own to write. Balancing these seemingly contradictory ideas may be the most important social challenge of our time. And Robert Frank has just written the most important book on the subject. Success and Luck is essential reading."―Duncan Watts, principal researcher, Microsoft Research, and author of Everything Is Obvious (Once You Know the Answer): How Common Sense Fails Us
"Success and Luck is a wonderful read―insightful, humorous, loaded with evidence, and full of common sense."―Frank Convery, chief economist of the Environmental Defense Fund
"The most skillful writer in economics has now written an amazing book on luck. Robert Frank brilliantly explains why luck is playing an increasingly important role in the world's outcomes, why it is hard for all of us to realize it, and why there is a simple fix to the vast inequalities caused by sheer luck―a solution that will make all of our lives better. You will feel very lucky to have read it."―Nicholas Epley, author of Mindwise: Why We Misunderstand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want
"We all like to think we live in a just world, where most people get what they deserve most of the time. In this lovely and insightful book, Robert Frank urges us to think again. His poignant description of random wins and losses in his own career complements his deft summary of the broad evidence that chance shapes success. Not that we shouldn't all try hard to succeed―we should, rather, try harder to pool risks and hedge bets in ways that improve both efficiency and justice."―Nancy Folbre, author of Greed, Lust, and Gender: A History of Economic Ideas
"Growing inequality of wealth, leading to growing inequality of political power, has become a first-order social problem. Understanding the role of luck in economic outcomes is the first step toward formulating sensible policies to get runaway inequality back under control. Robert Frank's Success and Luck is a jewel: succinct, well written, and convincing. We're all lucky to be able to read it."―Mark A.R. Kleiman, New York University's Marron Institute
"Robert Frank has a terrific mind and a huge heart. In this book, he shows that luck plays a massive role in successful lives―and he explains precisely why we underestimate that role. In the process, he offers important recommendations for how to make our economy both more efficient and more fair. A beautiful book."―Cass R. Sunstein, Harvard University
"In this very valuable and readable book, Robert Frank presents the evidence and tightens the case for an important and vastly underappreciated fact: luck has more influence on personal success than most of us recognize or admit. He also makes the case that luck's role in where we end up in terms of income, education, status, and other outcomes has a big impact on how we perceive government, taxes, and public social spending."―Lane Kenworthy, University of California, San Diego
"Robert Frank's Success and Luck should be read by everybody. Not only will you learn much new, subtle, important economics, you will also learn about yourself. You will be more generous and more satisfied: because you will see your successes as not just the product of your own hard work, but also of some good luck and help from others. All that, and, also, Success and Luck is a joy to read. I am going to send a copy to my brother (a physicist) and to my son (an economist) for their birthdays."―George A. Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics
From the Back Cover
"Building a successful life requires a deep conviction that you are the author of your own destiny. Building a successful society requires an equally deep conviction that no one's destiny is their own to write. Balancing these seemingly contradictory ideas may be the most important social challenge of our time. And Robert Frank has just written the most important book on the subject. Success and Luck is essential reading."--Duncan Watts, principal researcher, Microsoft Research, and author of Everything Is Obvious (Once You Know the Answer): How Common Sense Fails Us
"Success and Luck is a wonderful read--insightful, humorous, loaded with evidence, and full of common sense."--Frank Convery, chief economist of the Environmental Defense Fund
"The most skillful writer in economics has now written an amazing book on luck. Robert Frank brilliantly explains why luck is playing an increasingly important role in the world's outcomes, why it is hard for all of us to realize it, and why there is a simple fix to the vast inequalities caused by sheer luck--a solution that will make all of our lives better. You will feel very lucky to have read it."--Nicholas Epley, author of Mindwise: Why We Misunderstand What Others Think, Believe, Feel, and Want
"We all like to think we live in a just world, where most people get what they deserve most of the time. In this lovely and insightful book, Robert Frank urges us to think again. His poignant description of random wins and losses in his own career complements his deft summary of the broad evidence that chance shapes success. Not that we shouldn't all try hard to succeed--we should, rather, try harder to pool risks and hedge bets in ways that improve both efficiency and justice."--Nancy Folbre, author of Greed, Lust, and Gender: A History of Economic Ideas
"Growing inequality of wealth, leading to growing inequality of political power, has become a first-order social problem. Understanding the role of luck in economic outcomes is the first step toward formulating sensible policies to get runaway inequality back under control. Robert Frank's Success and Luck is a jewel: succinct, well written, and convincing. We're all lucky to be able to read it."--Mark A.R. Kleiman, New York University's Marron Institute
"Robert Frank has a terrific mind and a huge heart. In this book, he shows that luck plays a massive role in successful lives--and he explains precisely why we underestimate that role. In the process, he offers important recommendations for how to make our economy both more efficient and more fair. A beautiful book."--Cass R. Sunstein, Harvard University
"In this very valuable and readable book, Robert Frank presents the evidence and tightens the case for an important and vastly underappreciated fact: luck has more influence on personal success than most of us recognize or admit. He also makes the case that luck's role in where we end up in terms of income, education, status, and other outcomes has a big impact on how we perceive government, taxes, and public social spending."--Lane Kenworthy, University of California, San Diego
"Robert Frank's Success and Luck should be read by everybody. Not only will you learn much new, subtle, important economics, you will also learn about yourself. You will be more generous and more satisfied: because you will see your successes as not just the product of your own hard work, but also of some good luck and help from others. All that, and, also, Success and Luck is a joy to read. I am going to send a copy to my brother (a physicist) and to my son (an economist) for their birthdays."--George A. Akerlof, Nobel Laureate in Economics
About the Author
Product details
- Publisher : Princeton University Press (April 19, 2016)
- Language : English
- Hardcover : 208 pages
- ISBN-10 : 0691167400
- ISBN-13 : 978-0691167404
- Item Weight : 14 ounces
- Dimensions : 5.7 x 0.9 x 8.6 inches
- Best Sellers Rank: #741,180 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
- #161 in Income Inequality
- #3,887 in Public Affairs & Policy Politics Books
- #8,676 in Sociology (Books)
- Customer Reviews:
About the author
Robert H. Frank received his M.A. in statistics from the University of California at Berkeley in 1971, and his Ph.D. in economics in 1972, also from U.C. Berkeley. He is the Goldwin Smith Professor of Economics at Cornell University, where he has taught since 1972 and where he currently holds a joint appointment in the department of economics and the Johnson Graduate School of Management. He has published on a variety of subjects, including price and wage discrimination, public utility pricing, the measurement of unemployment spell lengths, and the distributional consequences of direct foreign investment. For the past several years, his research has focused on rivalry and cooperation in economic and social behaviour.
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“Hard work, determination, education and experience count for a great deal as regards success. But the data available suggests that luck is almost entirely responsible for which hard working, determined, educated and experienced people make it in life.”
Most accounts of this issue, such as Outliers: The Story of Success rely on stories. This book also has plenty of stories in which chance events led to success that seems unlikely without those events. But it is the first nontechnical book I've read that actually accompanies its stories with some account of “the data available". Part of this involves the “winner take all" parts of the current economy, where rewards accrue to only a few individuals. Part involves laboratory psychological experiments involving game-like settings where individuals are asked to make choices. And there are a few "toy model" mathematical simulations.
I can confidently recommend this book as the best single treatment of its topic. Having said that, I do have a few quibbles.
(a) The lab experiments involve short-term decision with negligible real-world consequences to the participants, so it’s mot clear how they apply outside the lab,
(b) He notes that, after a point, acquisition of more wealth does not lead to more happiness. So it’s odd to use the word “success” to mean acquisition of wealth.
(c) He proposes a progressive consumption tax, to reduce spending by the wealthy on positional goods (illustrated by expensive weddings and McMansions). But he makes no attempt to quantify the amount this would raise as taxes or reduce extravagance.
(d) His mathematical models, combining “ability and effort” on one side with “pure luck” on the other side, miss a key point, which is the choice to undertake risky activity. When we look at the most successful people in a field, what we see is not just “ability plus luck”, but it’s “ability plus choice to take risks plus luck”.
However, despite the excellent insights into the role of luck in the first section of the book, it is then somewhat spoiled by overreach and spurious reasoning while wading into the inequality and fiscal policy debate. While this is certainly an important area of discussion these days, it has been covered more comprehensively by other writers such as Thomas Piketty, and without appealing solely to Frank’s philosophical framework concerning luck. In fact, the two ideas are not automatically linked at all, and probably shouldn’t be.
Frank’s case isn’t helped by some readers' apparent confusion surrounding the arguments in the book which I would guess stems from not clearly stating his working assumptions as explicitly and early as he could have, but the salient logical framework seems to be as follows:
1. Luck increasingly dominates competitive outcomes as a function of competitors’ absolute ability levels in many fields (along the lines of Michael Mauboussin's ‘Paradox of Skill’ argument)
2. Luck as a factor in life events is positively correlated and path-dependent, i.e. being lucky tends to create the conditions for further favorable outcomes, and vice versa, compounding over time to produce greater extremes in the distribution than would happen if ability and effort alone were the only factors at play
3. Per his previous book, the Winner-Take-All phenomenon has become increasingly prevalent as globalization enlarges the pool of competitors in many industries and has disproportionately increased rewards accruing to the winners
4. The implication of putting 1 + 2 + 3 together is that small differences in initial endowments combined with the compounding effects of luck can, and increasingly do, produce large differences in life outcomes that don’t merely arise from differences in natural ability and effort
5. Most people tend to underestimate this potentially outsized influence of luck on the distribution of outcomes
6. If the average person had a better understanding of the influence of luck, they would likely think differently about redistributive fiscal policy, and so policy should be preemptively changed accordingly
While I can be convinced that 1, 2, 3, 4 and possibly 5 are true, I am less readily able to jump to accepting 6. Frank presses quite hard to make this case, and then goes further to argue that a progressive consumption tax is the natural way to address 6, which in my opinion neither necessarily follows nor is supported by sound reasoning.
As an aside, I’ve avoided the use of the word ‘success’ in my review until now because of interpretation issues relating to that term. Defining 'success' in life in purely financial terms as Frank is mostly seen to be doing in his book is both common and questionable when framing debates about fairness and inequality. People obviously don't always make career and life choices based exclusively on maximizing their personal wealth, and often instead make trade-offs against other non-monetary benefits they hold valuable depending on their personal preferences, for example finding a sense of meaning in their work, making a contribution to society at large, or achieving a favorable work-life balance. It’s very likely that some of these preferences happen also to be correlated with their own initial life circumstances, e.g. level of ability and willingness to exert effort, further muddying the assumption of independence between these variables and the luck factor.
However, temporarily putting aside any specific objections concerning the definition of success and accepting a definition of success measured in purely monetary terms as a yardstick in Frank’s model of life outcomes based on three input components - ability, effort and luck – subjective questions still arise about what we are trying to optimize as a society that are unrelated to views on the way purely random luck operates:
How closely do we want to align individual incomes to ‘merit’, and what exactly is merit? Is a meritocracy one in which we maximize rewards to effort only or do we want ability to be rewarded as well? If so, in what proportion? What if we view ability as simply another variety of luck, i.e. the luck of genetics and birth circumstances such as quality of upbringing or education; what should be done about that? Should we try to counteract these early circumstantial differences in ability through public policy? Are we aiming to ensure equality of outcomes or equality of opportunity in society?
These are all subjective political questions that can be answered differently by different people without any logical inconsistency and unrelated to a view of how much luck plays a part in life.
Furthermore, with regard to the argument about a progressive consumption tax - if we accept that our societal objective should be to reduce wealth inequality, why should we necessarily expect a progressive consumption tax to be the best way to achieve this, given that for most people the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) and hence their likely relative tax burden, tends to diminish in relation to wealth? I can concede this would probably work if the objective is to reduce inequality of consumption, but it’s not clear to me that it would be more effective than a similar progressive income (or capital gains) tax in terms of reducing inequality of income or wealth. What kinds of inequality are we seeking to reduce and why?
Too many questions of this type are at best only partially addressed and even then mostly anecdotally, and this together with Frank’s generally unconvincing linkage between luck and policy are fundamental flaws of the book, as astutely highlighted by Aaron Brown and other reviewers (arguments concerning free will and determinism are irrelevant here in my view). In trying to tie his commendably insightful initial ideas about luck into current debates surrounding inequality and fiscal policy, the writer overstretches. His sleight-of-hand attempt to prescribe a specific policy stance based on a proposition that the average person underestimates the role of luck in life attempts to build shaky policy recommendations on top of the foundation of a potentially solid observational hypothesis (however difficult that observation might be to test in practice). Overall, this book is a missed opportunity that would have been better served as an empirical study trying to pick apart the contribution of luck in life outcomes, while leaving readers to form their own political views about what if anything should be our response.
Top reviews from other countries
Luck always plays a part in whatever we do, in successes and failures. This is the reality he is portraying and supporting through a very successful selection of examples, personal stories and quotes from other authors. Yet, when focusing on our efforts to succeed, we would rather put aside the implications of the existence of luck, as this can make us more passive.