Inside Elections

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

With less than a month to go, one thing is clear: this election is very close. 

In the fight for the White House, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are within a couple points of each other in all seven swing states. Based on the map and the math, Republicans have the advantage to win the Senate, but at least five key races are within the margin of error. And in the House, candidates are running close to even in at least a couple dozen races. 

Even though there’s a small group of truly undecided voters, a slight shift in the electorate in the next few weeks could have a significant impact on the outcome of the elections if that movement trends in one direction.

Presidential
The presidential race remains a dead heat. Harris has a narrow but consistent lead in national polls, which measure a race that does not exist. Presidential, Senate, and House polling point to a neck-and-neck race between Trump and Harris in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Harris has the advantage in fundraising and organization, and has a higher ceiling because she’s less defined. But she still has to seal the deal with voters who aren’t excited about four more years of Trump but don’t yet trust her to be president.

Senate
Nebraska has been a gift to Democrats looking for offensive opportunities to balance vulnerabilities elsewhere, but it probably won’t be enough to save…