research-article

Probabilistic population projection with JAMES II

Authors:

Christina Bohk,

Adelinde M. UhrmacherAuthors Info & Claims

WSC '09: Winter Simulation Conference

Pages 2008 - 2019

Published: 13 December 2009 Publication History

Abstract

Predicting future populations and their structure is a central theme in demography. It is related to public health issues, political decision-making, or urban planning. Since these predictions are concerned with the evolution of a complex system, they exhibit a considerable uncertainty. Accounting for this inherent uncertainty is crucial for subsequent decision processes, as it reveals the range of possible outcomes and their likelihood. Consequently, probabilistic prediction approaches emerged over the past decades. This paper describes the probabilistic population projection model (PPPM), a recently developed method that allows detailed projections, but has a complex structure and requires much input data. We discuss the development of P3J, a tool that helps users in managing and executing projections and is built on top of the simulation system JAMES II. We outline how even specific tools like P3J profit from general-purpose simulation frameworks like JAMES II, and illustrate its usage by a simple example.

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Cited By

Traoré M(2018)Ontology for Healthcare Systems Modeling and SimulationProceedings of the 50th Computer Simulation Conference10.5555/3275382.3275387(1-12)Online publication date: 9-Jul-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3275382.3275387
Djitog IAliyu HTraoré M(2018)A model-driven framework for multi-paradigm modeling and holistic simulation of healthcare systemsSimulation10.1177/003754971774488894:3(235-257)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1177/0037549717744888
Steiniger AUhrmacher AZinn SGampe JWillekens FBuckley SMiller J(2014)The role of languages for modeling and simulating continuous-time multi-level models in demographyProceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2693848.2694224(2978-2989)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2014
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2693848.2694224
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Information & Contributors

Information

Published In

cover image ACM Conferences

WSC '09: Winter Simulation Conference

December 2009

3211 pages

ISBN:9781424457717

General Chair:
Ann Dunkin
Palo Alto Unified School District
,
Program Chair:
Ricki G. Ingalls
Oklahoma State University

Sponsors

IIE: Institute of Industrial Engineers
INFORMS-SIM: Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences: Simulation Society
SIGSIM: ACM Special Interest Group on Simulation and Modeling
SCS: Society for Modeling and Simulation International

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Winter Simulation Conference

Publication History

Published: 13 December 2009

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WSC09

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IIE
INFORMS-SIM
SIGSIM
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WSC09: Winter Simulation Conference

December 13 - 16, 2009

Texas, Austin

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WSC '09 Paper Acceptance Rate 137 of 256 submissions, 54%;

Overall Acceptance Rate 3,285 of 4,888 submissions, 67%

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Cited By

Traoré M(2018)Ontology for Healthcare Systems Modeling and SimulationProceedings of the 50th Computer Simulation Conference10.5555/3275382.3275387(1-12)Online publication date: 9-Jul-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/3275382.3275387
Djitog IAliyu HTraoré M(2018)A model-driven framework for multi-paradigm modeling and holistic simulation of healthcare systemsSimulation10.1177/003754971774488894:3(235-257)Online publication date: 1-Mar-2018
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.1177/0037549717744888
Steiniger AUhrmacher AZinn SGampe JWillekens FBuckley SMiller J(2014)The role of languages for modeling and simulating continuous-time multi-level models in demographyProceedings of the 2014 Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2693848.2694224(2978-2989)Online publication date: 7-Dec-2014
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2693848.2694224
Bohk CRau REwald RRose OUhrmacher A(2012)Towards a generalized subpopulation support for stochastic population projectionsProceedings of the Winter Simulation Conference10.5555/2429759.2430263(1-2)Online publication date: 9-Dec-2012
https://dl.acm.org/doi/10.5555/2429759.2430263

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