France election poll tracker: will Le Pen’s National Rally beat Macron’s alliance? | The Economist

French elections 2024

Who will control the National Assembly?

Last updated on June 25th 2024

Latest polling averages, %

Median
Low
Likely range
High
After a crushing defeat for his party in the European Parliament elections, Emmanuel Macron, France’s president, called for a snap legislative vote to take place on June 30th and July 7th. It is a political gamble that risks a government led by the hard-right or hard-left. Much is at stake in a country that is a key player in both the EU and in NATO. Mr Macron’s best hope, despite poor polling, is that the overwhelming support for the National Rally (RN), Marine Le Pen’s hard-right party, in the European elections will dwindle at the national ballot box, and that people will turn out to support Ensemble, his centrist alliance, instead.
The Economist is tracking the contest. Here you can find the latest voting intention based on our average of the polls, updated daily, and short guides to each party group. And check back after each vote for the results. If you are interested in contests elsewhere, visit our election tracker hub.

Voting intention, %

Left
Centrist
Right

*From June 19th, including share that says they will vote for Republican candidates fielded by Eric Ciotti's side

†After June 19th, not including the Republican candidates that have said they will collaborate with the National Rally

‡From June 21st, including share that says they will vote for other independent right-wing candidates

Opinion polls are not going Mr Macron’s way. The RN is leading, followed by a left-wing coalition, while Mr Macron’s centrist alliance trails behind in third place. Whatever the result, he is not risking his own position. The upcoming vote concerns only the lower house of parliament; the upper house is not affected, and Mr Macron will remain president—though if Ensemble loses, his authority and ability to shape policy will be greatly diminished.
The first round of France’s two-round system takes place on Sunday, June 30th. In each of 577 constituencies, unless one candidate is elected with over 50% in the first round, contenders who secure the support of at least 12.5% of registered voters go through to the final round on July 7th. The second round is often a contest between two parties—at the previous parliamentary election, in 2022, there were only seven three-way votes. The system is vulnerable both to political manoeuvring, whereby parties withdraw their candidates to garner support for an ally and keep an opponent out, as well as tactical voting.
After the election the president will appoint a new prime minister. In the face of potential cohabitation (where the president and government are of different political stripes) and in particular a hung parliament, the constitution lays out no criteria by which to do this. The president could nominate a technocrat or politician, and one in command of a parliamentary majority, or not.
The RN says that, if elected, it would tighten immigration rules to make it easier to expel “Islamist foreigners”, lower VAT and allow those who started work at the age of 20 to retire at 60. It has previously argued against Ukraine joining either NATO or the EU. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) has promised to undo Mr Macron’s unpopular pension reform and raise the minimum wage by 13%.

The main party groups

National Rally

Hard-right

National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, is a hard-right party and the successor to the National Front, founded by Ms Le Pen’s father. RN is a nationalist and Eurosceptic party, with a tough line on immigration. At the European Parliament elections on June 9th the RN won 30 seats whereas Mr Macron’s coalition secured just 13. It currently holds 88 seats in France’s National Assembly, but polls suggest it could become the biggest party after this election. A Kremlin-linked Russian bank financed some of Ms Le Pen’s previous election campaigns. The RN is opposed to Ukraine joining NATO or the EU. Ms Le Pen says she would put forward Jordan Bardella, her 28-year-old party head, as a candidate for prime minister.

New Popular Front

Left-wing

The New Popular Front (NFP) is a newly formed alliance of left-wing parties. It is made up of Socialist, Green and Communist parties as well as Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s Unsubmissive France. A similar alliance in 2022 with Mr Mélenchon as its leader was named “New Popular, Environmental and Social Union”, or NUPES. The NFP has pledged to undo Mr Macron’s pension reform, and introduce a swatch of heavy new taxes on individuals and corporations. No single candidate for the position as prime minister has yet been announced by the coalition. The left-wing alliance is currently second in the polls.

Ensemble

Centrist

Ensemble (ENS) is a coalition of centrist parties, including Mr Macron’s Renaissance party; the pro-European MoDem; Horizons, a party founded by Edouard Philippe, a former prime minister; and others. It is currently the largest group in France’s National Assembly, the lower house of parliament, holding 250 seats—it fell short of winning an absolute majority of 289 seats in the elections in 2022. Since the previous election, Mr Macron’s alliance has needed to partner with other parties to pass laws. Gabriel Attal, Mr Macron’s 35-year-old Renaissance colleague, became France’s youngest ever prime minister in January.

The Republicans

Centre-right

Eric Ciotti, head of the centre-right Republicans, is putting up more than 60 candidates in an alliance with the RN. Republicans who do not want to work with Ms Le Pen’s party instead have to stand under the banner of “the republican right”. Republicans dismayed by Mr Ciotti's alliance have tried to oust him from the party, but that was provisionally overturned in the courts. Anti-Ciotti Republicans have said they are putting up nearly 400 candidates across the country.

Reconquest

Hard-right

Reconquest is a Catholic far-right party. It was founded in 2021 by Eric Zemmour, an anti-immigrant radical. In 2022 it came fifth in the first round of the parliamentary elections. On June 12th the party expelled Marion Maréchal, its former vice-president and Ms Le Pen’s niece, for telling people to support the RN in the upcoming election.

Sources: National polls; The Economist

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