July 4, 2024: The latest on Hurricane Beryl

Our live coverage of Hurricane Beryl has wrapped for the day. Stay updated on the storm’s path here.

Beryl is heading toward Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph and is roughly 215 miles east of Tulum as of 5 p.m. ET, the National Hurricane Center said in a public advisory update.

Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area on the peninsula Thursday night or early Friday, the center said.

Winds are expected to first reach tropical storm strength in the region as early as Thursday evening, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous, according to the center.

Rain and strong gusts of wind are starting to be felt in parts of Mexico’s Quintana Roo state as Hurricane Beryl approaches, Gov. Mara Lezama said Thursday afternoon.

About 100 flights have been canceled at the Cancun International Airport, which remained open as of 2:00 p.m., Lezama said. At least nine flights were also canceled at Tulum’s airport, where operations were suspended at 3:00 p.m., she added.

The state of Quintana Roo, a popular tourist destination in the Yucatán Peninsula, is under an orange level alert, which urges residents to evacuate at-risk zones and seek refuge in temporary shelters.

Preventative evacuations have been carried out in several municipalities including Holbox, Punta Allen and Mahahual, the state government said.

According to the latest forecast, Beryl is expected to make landfall as a Category 2 hurricane Thursday night or early Friday between the municipalities of Tulum and Felipe Carrillo Puerto, Lezama warned.

After sweeping through Quintana Roo, the hurricane is then expected to continue toward Yucatán state in the northern part of the Yucatán Peninsula, National Coordinator for Civil Protection Laura Velázquez said earlier.

Velázquez said schools have been suspended in Quintana Roo and Yucatán states. Maritime activities have also been suspended in Tulum, Felipe Carrillo Puerto and José María Morelos in Quintana Roo as of 5 p.m., and in 24 municipalities of Yucatán from 7 p.m.

Beryl will unload damaging winds, torrential rainfall and dangerous storm surge over a significant portion of Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula from Thursday night through Friday, including the popular tourist destinations of Cozumel and Tulum.

The hurricane is expected to make landfall late Thursday night or early Friday morning in the state of Quintana Roo. Beryl could come ashore just south of Tulum, Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center’s latest forecast track. 

Beryl is likely to have hurricane-force winds at landfall, meaning any location within its path could endure damaging wind gusts. These powerful gusts will also churn up nearby seas and produce up to 5 feet of storm surge on the Yucatan’s eastern shores. Western shores could encounter up to 3 feet of surge as Beryl’s winds drive into the coast as it moves over land Friday. 

Widespread rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches are likely over much of the Yucatan Peninsula through Friday with higher totals possible near where Beryl makes landfall. Rainfall could total 6 to 8 inches in costal areas from about Punta Allen to Puerto Aventuras including the island of Cozumel. A few double-digit rainfall totals are not out of the question for any area caught under Beryl’s heaviest rain. 

Damaging winds, dangerous surf and flooding rainfall will make it dangerous for anyone to be out at the beach on Friday, especially the many popular tourist destinations over the Yucatan. 

People board-up a window before the arrival of Hurricane Beryl, in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, on July 4.

Beryl continues to gradually lose strength in the western Caribbean Sea and is now a Category 2 hurricane with sustained winds of 110 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The hurricane is located 275 miles east-southeast of Tulum, Mexico, and is moving west-northwest at 18 mph. Beryl has moved away from the Cayman Islands and all warnings for the area were discontinued.

Mexico is next up to face Beryl’s wrath as the hurricane is likely to make landfall along the country’s Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night or early Friday morning.

Beryl is no longer a major hurricane – Category 3 or stronger – but spent more than four days of its life as one. Beryl is now one of two hurricanes to ever last that long as a major hurricane in the Atlantic basin before August. Emily was the other and also spent 102 hours as a major hurricane in 2005.

Ocean waters around the globe have been excessively warm — often at record levels — for more than a full year. The water along Beryl’s path helped the storm explode in strength over the last week.

This map shows the storm’s historical progress, current location and projected path, overlaid on sea surface temperature anomalies.

Rain and wind from Beryl aren’t expected to reach the US until early next week, but parts of the country will still feel its impact this weekend. Beryl will likely create dangerous rip currents along much of the US Gulf Coast for the holiday weekend.

“Life-threatening beach conditions” will begin Friday afternoon and persist through the weekend for the Gulf Coast, the National Hurricane Center warned Thursday morning. 

“Beachgoers should be extremely wary of these conditions over the holiday weekend,” the National Weather Service in Corpus Christi urged Thursday. 

Fourth of July weekend is one of the most popular beach weekends of the year as people flock to the coasts to beat the summertime heat. Widespread high temperatures in the 90s for the Gulf Coast this weekend will likely have people seeking out said relief. 

Rip currents can be spotted from the shore but are tricky to see for anyone already in the water. This dangerous hazard can overwhelm even the strongest swimmers.

Late last month, eight people died in rip currents off the coast of Florida in just a four-day span. 

At least 19 people have lost their lives in rip currents this year in the US or its territories, according to the National Weather Service. More than a third of these deaths occurred along the Gulf Coast.

Learn more about rip currents here.

Rip current risk levels are shown today across the Gulf Coast. Red is the highest level of risk, followed by yellow and white. Most of the coast will be at risk of rip currents by this weekend.

CNN’s Sara Smart contributed reporting to this post.

Simone Francis gathers items from her home that were blown away as Hurricane Beryl passed through the area on Thursday in Old Harbor, Jamaica.

Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness told CNN in an interview on Thursday that while the country is still in “assessment mode” after being struck by Hurricane Beryl, the damage was not as bad as had been feared. 

“But there was damage, nonetheless. We had a damage to some coastal infrastructure in southern parishes. We had damage to agriculture and housing in two parishes, Manchester, and St. Elisabeth. We have had some roads cut off a lot. But outside of that, I think Jamaica was spared the worst,” he added.

Holness also said there had been two deaths registered due to the storm, raising the death toll in the country by one. He said roughly 1000 people remained in shelters, that telecommunications were about 70% operational and that electricity that had gone done in “some areas” was being restored. 

“We are now into recovery phase so we are doing our assessments. Another two or three hours we’ll be able to give a full assessment as to what the damage is,” he said.

The prime minister also told CNN two deaths had been registered in the country due to Hurricane Beryl, bringing the total death toll due to the storm to at least nine.

Jamaica’s prime minister said two deaths have been registered in the country due to Hurricane Beryl, in an interview with CNN’s Max Foster on Thursday.

This brings the death toll due to Beryl to nine.  

In addition to the fatalities in Jamaica, at least three people have died in Venezuela, another three died in Grenada, and one person died in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

Beryl remains a powerful Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph, down 5 mph from earlier this morning.

Beryl is 95 miles west-southwest of Grand Cayman and is tracking west-northwest at 18 mph. The hurricane’s wind field shrunk slightly this morning. Beryl’s hurricane-force winds now extend 30 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds reach 160 miles.

Beryl is expected to lose additional strength but remain a hurricane when it makes landfall on Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula early Friday morning.

Beryl will emerge in the Gulf of Mexico Friday night after it roars through the Caribbean and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.

It will be a tropical storm for much of its journey through the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend before intensifying to a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches land, according to the National Hurricane Center.

It’s forecast to make landfall along Mexico’s northeastern coast or in southern Texas Sunday night or Monday morning. But there’s still uncertainty about Beryl’s exact landfall this many days in advance. 

It all hinges on an area of high pressure helping to fuel hot conditions in the South. High pressure is like a bumper in a game of atmospheric pinball, pushing storms this way and that. So if the high over the South stays strong, it will push Beryl more due west on a track farther from the US. But if it weakens, Beryl could turn more to the northwest or north and track closer to the US.

It’s looking increasingly likely the high over the South will weaken just enough to allow Beryl to curve more to the northwest during its journey through the Gulf of Mexico.

Impact scenarios from Beryl in northeastern Mexico and South Texas will likely be similar regardless of the exact landfall location. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will likely be widespread in these areas, with parts of the coast potentially picking up 8 or more inches early next week. Wind speeds will vary based on Beryl’s exact landfall, but wind damage and storm surge is possible anywhere near its track.

Several different computer forecast models (colored lines) are overlaid on the National Hurricane Center forecast cone (grey outline) for Beryl. Each colored line represents a different way the center of Beryl may track into early next week.

Britain’s Prince and Princess of Wales have donated privately to Hurricane Beryl relief efforts, the Kensington Palace said.

The couple will continue to follow the situation closely, the palace added.

Britain’s King Charles III also sent his condolences to the people of the Caribbean following the death and destruction caused by Hurricane Beryl.

He also is making a “substantial” charitable donation to the disaster recovery and relief efforts, a royal source said.

He has asked to be kept closely informed of the developing situation and is hoping to engage with regional leaders directly in coming days to offer his support and sympathies, the source added.  

King Charles is head of state in eight Caribbean countries.

Hurricane Beryl remains a dangerous Category 3 hurricane, but it doesn’t quite look that way from space this morning. Beryl is tracking through an area of wind shear that is disrupting the highest parts of the hurricane and causing its clouds to appear messy.

Wind shear is the change in wind speed or direction at different heights in the atmosphere. Strong wind shear reduces the strength of a powerful hurricane by disrupting the center of circulation a storm needs to maintain to survive.

Beryl remains strong, despite its fight against wind shear. The hurricane still has an impressive eye – meaning it has a strong circulation – in its lower portion that can only be seen on the Cayman Islands’ weather radar.

A car in the rain drives past a collapsed post as Hurricane Beryl hits the southern coast of the island, in Kingston, Jamaica, on July 3.

The southern coast of Jamaica took the brunt of Hurricane Beryl’s strongest winds Wednesday, but heavy rain and strong winds pounded a more widespread area relentlessly.

Kingston recorded wind gusts near 50 mph for 12 consecutive hours from 1:00 p.m. local time Wednesday to 1:00 a.m. Thursday. Gusts topped 80 mph there in the late afternoon.

Gusts were almost certainly much stronger along the country’s southwestern shores, but there were no observation stations there to record them.

Beryl also unloaded heavy rainfall over Jamaica.

Kingston more than doubled the amount of rain it typically receives during the entire month of July in just 24 hours Wednesday when it received 4.4 inches.

Beryl is tracking across the Caribbean Sea and passing just south of the Cayman Islands as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 120 mph. 

The hurricane is located 50 miles southwest of Grand Cayman and is tracking west-northwest at 20 mph. Beryl’s hurricane-force winds extend 45 miles from its center and tropical storm-force winds reach 175 miles away. 

Tropical storm-force winds reached the islands early Thursday morning. The airport on Grand Cayman — the largest of the three islands — has reported sustained winds of more than 40 mph with wind gusts greater than 50 mph since sunrise. 

Beryl’s strong winds are expected to produce as much as 4 feet of storm surge and dangerous surf for the islands this morning.

Heavy rain is also soaking the islands. One to 2 inches of rain have deluged Grand Cayman in the last three hours. Recent rainfall rates have started to approach a dangerous 1 inch per hour, which could cause flash flooding. 

The Cayman Islands are expected to pick up widespread rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches today. Localized areas could pick up even more if caught under the hurricane’s heaviest rain bands. 

Winds and rain impact Savannah, Grand Cayman, as Hurricane Beryl approaches on July 4.

Category 3 Hurricane Beryl has weakened slightly and now has winds of 120 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center’s 5:00 a.m. ET update.

Weather conditions are deteriorating on the Cayman Islands with strong winds, dangerous storm surge and damaging waves expected this morning. Tropical storm conditions are ongoing, with hurricane conditions expected soon.

The Cayman Islands can also expect storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 2 to 4 feet above normal tide levels and produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, causing flooding.

Jamaica discontinued its hurricane warning as Beryl moved away from the island, with the strongest part of the storm impacting the southern coast.

Looking ahead: Beryl will reach the Yucatan Peninsula early Friday as a hurricane and emerge into the southern Gulf of Mexico early Saturday as a tropical storm. The storm will likely be able to regain some intensity over the warm waters of the Gulf as it nears another landfall on the coast of Mexico or Texas early next week.

Tropical storm conditions first reach the Yucatan Peninsula later today, becoming hurricane-force by early Friday. Beryl is forecast to produce storm surge of 4 to 6 feet and rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches.

A hurricane warning is in effect for Grand Cayman, Little Cayman and Cayman Brac, and the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from Puerto Costa Maya to Cancun, including Cozumel.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico south of Puerto Costa Maya to Chetumal and from north of Cancun to Campeche.

Family members survey their home destroyed in the passing of Hurricane Beryl, in Ottley Hall, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, on July 2.

Hurricane Beryl, an early-season storm super-charged by abnormally warm ocean temperatures, is tearing through the Caribbean.

Grenada’s Carriacou island was “flattened” when Beryl made landfall as a Category 4 storm, according to its prime minister.

Several charities are actively distributing aid throughout the region.

Contribute to relief efforts here.

A woman stands at her front door looking at a huge tree on September 14, 1988, that was felled by Hurricane Gilbert as it crossed Jamaica.

Beryl has not made landfall in Jamaica, but the island was nonetheless pounded by the storm as a strong Category 4 hurricane with destructive winds and storm surge.

Jamaica is no stranger to tropical cyclones, but a direct hit from a tropical storm or hurricane is rare.

Only two hurricanes have made landfall in the country in the last 40 years: Sandy in 2012 and Gilbert in 1988. 

Sandy was a Category 1 hurricane when it slammed into Jamaica in 2012. But 1988’s Gilbert is perhaps the most infamous storm Jamaica ever endured. 

Gilbert roared ashore along Jamaica’s southern coast on September 12, 1988, packing sustained winds of 130 mph, making it a Category 4 by today’s standards. The hurricane inflicted catastrophic damage that totaled at least $2 billion at the time and led to the deaths of at least 45 people. 

Notably, the “B” storm name for 1988’s Atlantic hurricane season was also dubbed Beryl. It formed in August, reached tropical storm strength, and made landfall in Louisiana.

It’s more common for tropical cyclones to track near Jamaica and lash the island with strong winds and rain without directly striking the country.

Seven named cyclones have passed within 100 miles of Jamaica since the 2020 hurricane season: 2020’s Laura, Nana and Delta; 2021’s Elsa, Grace and Ida; and 2022’s Lisa.

A drone view shows workers installing wood boards to cover glass doors in a hotel ahead of the arrival of Hurricane Beryl, in Playa del Carmen, Mexico, on July 3.

Hurricane Beryl was tracking southeast of Grand Cayman on Thursday morning as a Category 3 storm after it pounded Jamaica and other Caribbean islands, killing at least eight people and damaging homes.

Beryl is expected to bring dangerous storm surge and damaging waves across the Cayman Islands late Thursday into Friday.

Here’s the latest:

Several charities are actively distributing aid throughout the region. If you’d like to help victims, you can contribute to relief efforts here.

People look at a tree that snapped as wind and rain from Hurricane Beryl passed through Kingston, Jamaica on July 3.

Beryl is now a Category 3 storm, with maximum winds of 125 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its 2 a.m. ET update.

After slamming Jamaica, the storm is 110 miles southeast of Grand Cayman and is expected to bring dangerous storm surge and damaging waves across the Cayman Islands late Thursday into Friday.

Hurricane Beryl has damaged the roof of Jamaica’s Norman Manley International Airport, according to aviation officials.

The roof of the passenger pier, which takes passengers to jet bridges, sustained damage during the storm, Airports Authority of Jamaica President Audley Deidrick said Wednesday.

He said operators would assess the damage at Norman Manley International Airport before deciding when to reopen it.

Deidrick said he had received “no negative reports” from Sangster International Airport, another airport on the island.

A screengrab taken from a video shows the ocean off Ocho Rios, Jamaica, on July 2.

Robert Pfeifer, an American celebrating his 25th wedding anniversary at a resort in Ocho Rios, Jamaica, said Hurricane Beryl “came in really hard and heavy.”

Heavy winds and rain downed several trees at the Sandals resort where Pfeifer had been staying with his wife. There was also debris scattered “kind of all over the place,” Pfeifer said.

Resort personnel had boarded up the windows and provided extra food and water for the guests, Pfeifer said.

He says the resort would assess the damage on Thursday morning.

“It wasn’t quite what we were planning on our anniversary,” Pfeifer said, but added that he and his wife “spent a little more time together and I think it’s been good for us.”

India's Virat Kohli, center, arrives at the Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi, India, on July 4.

India’s national cricket team returned home Thursday as T20 World Cup winners after being temporarily stranded in Barbados by Hurricane Beryl, Indian state broadcaster DD News reported.

The team was unable to fly out after Barbados’ Grantley Adams International Airport suspended operations on Sunday due to the hurricane. They arrived on a special charter flight, “AIC24WC,” or Air India Champions 24 World Cup, as seen on Flightradar24.

Photos and videos showed the team being greeted by a crowd of fans as they arrived in New Delhi on Thursday morning. The team is scheduled to attend a breakfast hosted by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday, followed by a parade in Mumbai later in the day, according to DD news.

India became the newest T20 World Cup champion after defeating South Africa with a seven-run victory on Saturday in Barbados’ capital Bridgetown. It’s their first T20 win in 13 years.

Flood waters pour onto the street as Hurricane Beryl passes through Kingston, Jamaica on July 3.

A flash flood watch is in effect in Jamaica through Thursday morning due to “continuing periods of heavy rainfall,” the country’s Meteorological Service said Wednesday night.

The service warned that heavy rains “could be accompanied by strong, gusty winds as the hurricane moves away from the west coast of the island.”

The Meteorological Service also discontinued its hurricane warning.

It said “rainfall associated with Beryl will, however, continue to affect sections of the island, increasing the chance of flash flooding.”

The service said the center of Hurricane Beryl is 65 miles south-southwest of Negril Point, Jamaica.

Jamaica has reported at least one death as a result of Beryl, bringing the storm’s death toll across the Caribbean to at least eight.

At least one person has died in Jamaica as a result of Hurricane Beryl, bringing the storm death toll across the Caribbean to at least eight.

A woman died in Jamaica’s Hanover parish on Wednesday after a tree fell on her home, Joyce Reynolds Robinson, a spokesperson for the country’s disaster preparedness agency, told CNN.

At least three people died in Venezuela, three died in Grenada and one person died in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.

At 11 p.m. ET, the center of Hurricane Beryl was 160 miles southeast of Grand Cayman, with maximum winds of 130 mph, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles.

Some weakening is forecast in the next day or two. But Beryl is forecast to be at or near major hurricane intensity when it passes the Cayman Islands on Thursday.

Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for Cozumel. It has also upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from Progreso to Campeche.

Waves crash ashore as Hurricane Beryl passes through the area on July 03, in Kingston, Jamaica.

At 8 p.m. ET, the center of Hurricane Beryl was just offshore of the southwest part of Jamaica, about 100 miles west of Kingston, with maximum winds of 130 mph, according to the National Hurriane Center.

Beryl is still a dangerous Category 4 storm, pounding southern Jamaica with hurricane-force winds, torrential rain, and a storm surge of 6 to 9 feet.

The storm is forecast to move west tonight, just south of the Cayman Islands, and over the Yucatan Peninsula late Thursday night and Friday. 

Beryl is expected to then emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico Friday night and turn northwestward.

Mexico has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning from Cabo Catoche to Progresso in the Yucatan Peninsula.

Jamaica's Prime Minister Andrew Holness is interviewed by CNN on Wednesday, July 3.

Jamaica’s Prime Minister Andrew Holness said he believes the country is now entering into the “second phase of this disaster” and response efforts after Hurricane Beryl dumped rain and brought hurricane-force winds to the island on Wednesday.

Holness told CNN storm surges damaged coastal infrastructure in some areas. Some people have been displaced and are now staying in shelters, he said.

He said the country remains cautious that heavy rainfall could still generate flooding, landslides and damage to roads.

“I think we still have heavy rainfall to come after the eye has passed,” he said. 

At the same time, he said officials are optimistic that “the worst that could have happened, so far, has not happened.”

“The storm is still within Jamaica’s vicinity,” he said. “So we hold our breath.”

Oil companies Shell and BP have begun evacuating non-essential employees along the Gulf of Mexico as a precaution before Hurricane Beryl is forecast to arrive this weekend.

BP said it is in the process of removing non-essential personnel from its Mad Dog platform. Shell has also begun evacuating non-essential personnel at its Perdido and Whale assets.

Shell has paused some of its drilling operations across the Gulf of Mexico, according to their Storm Center. 

Both companies said they will continue to monitor weather conditions and respond accordingly.

Carnival Cruise Line's Carnival Horizon cruise ship seen on April 9, 2021, in Miami.

Three major cruise lines have altered the itineraries for several ships in the Caribbean as they scramble to avoid the path of Hurricane Beryl: Royal Caribbean, Carnival and Norwegian cruise lines. 

Here’s a look at some of the changes:

Officials in parts of south Texas are preparing for the potential impacts of Hurricane Beryl by distributing sandbags and urging some residents to voluntarily evacuate.

Individuals staying at county parks in Cameron County, Texas, who have an RV or a high-profile vehicle are being asked to voluntarily leave. The area is in the path of the storm, Cameron County Judge Eddie Trevino Jr. said.

This includes Isla Blanca Park, Andy Bowie Park and Adolph Thomae, Jr. Park.

Campers are urged to tie down any loose items in their campsites, have a backup generator on hand and conserve perishable food as long as possible. In addition, sandbags are being distributed in Brownsville, McAllen and South Padre Island.

Earlier Wednesday, Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott directed the Texas Division of Emergency Management to issue an advisory notice to various emergency management agencies to make sure resources are ready to be deployed if they are needed, according to the governor.

The eyewall of Hurricane Beryl brushed the southern coast of Jamaica with hurricane conditions occurring throughout much of the island, according to an update from the National Hurricane Center.

The storm is still a Category 4 hurricane.

While the center of the eye is not expected to make direct landfall over Jamaica, the strongest part of the storm is the eyewall, which is battering the country.

Beryl is expected to weaken after passing by Jamaica, but will still be very strong as it moves toward the Cayman Islands.

Officials in Texas are preparing to potentially feel some of the impacts of Beryl over the weekend and into Monday.

Texas Gov. Gregg Abbott directed the Texas Division of Emergency Management to issue an advisory notice to various emergency management agencies to put response plans in place, according to an X post from the governor.

As state and local officials monitor weather conditions, the notice is to make sure that resources are ready to be deployed if they are needed, the governor said.

Tracking Beryl: The National Hurricane Center’s forecast calls for Beryl to restrengthen as it tracks across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend before making landfall Sunday night in far northeastern Mexico.

But the NHC’s forecast cone, which represents where the center of a cyclone is likely to stay 60 to 70% of the time, encapsulates much of southern Texas early next week. Some current forecast model solutions take Beryl right into Mexico, some shift it into Texas and some point it toward other parts of the US.

Several different computer forecast models (colored lines) are overlaid on the National Hurricane Center forecast cone (grey outline) for Beryl. Each colored line represents a different way the center of Beryl may track into early next week.

Hurricane Beryl — the earliest Category 5 hurricane on record in the Atlantic — is an example of how developing nations suffer from the worst effects of climate change, which is driving more frequent and extreme natural disasters, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness warned.

Though developed nations such as the US and China bear a greater historical responsibility for the human-induced climate crisis, developing nations and small island states are suffering the worst impacts.

Planet-warming pollution is driving global and ocean temperature rise, and the world’s oceans have now experienced an entire year of unprecedented heat thanks to this human-caused warming and El Niño. And as the planet warms and sea levels rise, the impacts of hurricanes are becoming more dangerous.

A 2022 study showed that 55 of the world’s most vulnerable economies have already experienced losses and damages of more than $500 billion in the last two decades from the climate crisis.

Beryl is set to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico this weekend after it roars through the Caribbean and Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula.

But from this point, Beryl’s exact track becomes uncertain, and it could be the difference between the storm making landfall on the US Gulf Coast or northeastern Mexico. 

The National Hurricane Center’s forecast calls for Beryl to restrengthen as it tracks across the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. It will then push toward Mexico’s coast and make landfall Sunday night in far northeastern Mexico.

But the NHC’s forecast cone, which represents where the center of a cyclone is likely to stay 60 to 70% of the time, encapsulates much of southern Texas early next week. This means a US landfall is not out of the question for Beryl. 

Some current forecast model solutions take Beryl right into Mexico, some shift it into Texas and some point it toward other parts of the US.

It all hinges on an area of high pressure helping to fuel hot conditions in the South. High pressure is like a bumper in a game of atmospheric pinball, pushing storms this way and that. So if the high over the South stays strong, it will push Beryl more due west on a track farther from the US. But if it weakens, Beryl could turn more to the northwest or north and track closer to the US.

Anyone from Mexico’s eastern Gulf Coast to Texas and even Louisiana should keep a close watch on the forecast in the coming days. Even if Beryl makes landfall in northeastern Mexico, wind and rain from the cyclone will likely impact parts of the US’s Gulf Coast.

Several different computer forecast models (colored lines) are overlaid on the National Hurricane Center forecast cone (grey outline) for Beryl. Each colored line represents a different way the center of Beryl may track into early next week.

Hurricane Beryl could contribute to slightly higher US gas prices in the coming days.

The good news is that Hurricane Beryl does not appear to pose a direct threat to US energy facilities in the region.

But traders are betting that Hurricane Beryl — the earliest Category 5 Atlantic storm on record — implies an active 2024 hurricane season that will eventually impact US oil output or refinery activity. 

That’s one reason US oil prices jumped nearly 3% on Monday and climbed above $84 a barrel on Tuesday for the first time since late April. Analysts also blamed geopolitical concerns and forecasts for strong gasoline demand over the July 4 weekend. 

It’s also still possible Hurricane Beryl impact will energy facilities. The National Hurricane Center is forecasting a northern shift on Sunday, a route that could disrupt refineries in Texas.

Andy Lipow, president of consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, also expects Hurricane Beryl will shut down oil tankers sending crude to Gulf Coast refineries. The loss of Mexican oil could temporarily boost gas prices. Lipow expects the national price of gas will climb over the next week by 5 to 10 cents a gallon.