Britain is still recovering from Taylor Swift’s Eras tour last month, when the American pop singer swept through the country to universal acclaim.
Seismologists in Edinburgh said the leaping of her devoted fans in tune to her music made the earth move. Seismic activity was detected up to four miles from her concert at the Murrayfield stadium. In London, telecoms engineers said all the selfies and TikTok posts resulted in the most mobile data use ever at Wembley.
Now the country’s economists warn that the growing band of young Swifties could be an economic force to be reckoned with. The UK inflation rate stayed at 2 per cent, rather than continuing to fall as had been expected.
This complicates the Bank of England’s decision next month when it considers whether to cut interest rates.
As Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, ponders his decision he could well consult a new academic discipline — Swiftonomics.
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Leading economists suggested that the UK leg of the singer’s world tour had a monetary impact well beyond her own bank balance — it is believed to be the first tour to bring in more than $1 billion in direct revenues.
The nation’s bank balance was also affected. The demand for accommodation in the cities where Swift performed appears to have led to an overall rise in hotel prices of 8.8 per cent. This increase in turn seemed to have been enough to keep inflation from falling below the symbolic level of 2 per cent.
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The economic power of Swift has long been known. Cities around the world have come to regard her as a spangly one-woman stimulus package.
Restaurants in the California city of Santa Clara reported a 170 per cent increase in sales around her concert.
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Officials in Kansas City, Missouri, recorded a 50 per cent rise in accommodation figures when she came into town. A tourism chief said she was “a force to be reckoned with”.
World leaders have been lining up to encourage her to perform in their cities.
Justin Trudeau, the prime minister of Canada, entreated her to play in his country. She is scheduled to take her Eras tour, which began last year, to Toronto for six shows before heading west in December to sing in Vancouver.
Tickets for the concerts are already selling at almost $2,000 a seat.
President Boric of Chile was left disappointed, however, when she bypassed his country to appear in Argentina and Brazil. He could only lament to his fellow countrymen: “One day she’ll listen to the Chilean Swifties.”
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The singer has also helped to bring in market transparency rules of the kind economists have long advocated. In the US, the anger of fans led the Federal Trade Commission to require Ticketmaster to disclose its fees. William Kovacic, former commission chairman, described the change as the “Taylor Swift adjustment”.
While there is agreement about the significant effects of the “Swift lift”, putting a value on it is difficult.
Some global estimates for the impact of the full tour are up to $80 billion — the GDP of Luxembourg.
In the UK Barclays puts its estimate at £1 billion, assuming that on top of paying more than £200 for a ticket, the fans spent about £121 on accommodation, £111 on travel and £56 on clothes.
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Even if these assumptions were reasonable, as with other estimates they have required a counterfactual in which the money was not spent in other ways. Whatever the figure, it is clear that Swift can heat up an economy. Which means she can also overheat it.
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When asked by a journalist about whether Swift spending was itself an indicator of a booming US economy, Jerome Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, offered a note of caution.
“The strength of the economy, overall, that’s a good thing. It’s good to see that. But… stronger growth could lead to higher inflation and that would require an appropriate response from monetary policy,” he said.
Swift could complicate ruminations when the gurus meet at the Bank of England. She is returning for performances at Wembley Stadium on August 15, 19 and 20. One can only wonder, are we Ready For It?
