Chalk Wars is back! We typically save this concept for the Super Bowl, but with the NFL’s two best teams squaring off in Detroit this weekend, we had no choice but to use it again for a potential Super Bowl LIX preview.
The premise hasn’t changed: Steven Ruiz and Diante Lee are cosplaying as the staffs of the Bills and Lions, predicting and explaining the game plans the teams will likely deploy on Sunday. Ruiz will be playing the role of Bills coach Sean McDermott, while Lee will be doing his best Dan Campbell impression. They’ll dissect the matchup in two situations: early downs and obvious passing downs. The offenses will lay out their game plans, and the defenses will respond with possible counters. And at the end, Ruiz and Lee will make their predictions for who will win.
We’ll start with Ruiz and the Bills’ early-down offense.
Early Downs
When Buffalo has the football
Ruiz: Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson will be the main attraction in this offseason’s coaching carousel, but he’s not the only play calling star in this matchup. Buffalo’s Joe Brady has undoubtedly earned himself a few head coach interviews given his coordination of the Bills offense this season. Josh Allen is the odds-on favorite to win MVP and is on pace to set career lows in interceptions and turnover-worthy plays. And Brady’s alterations to the offense in his first full season on the job deserve partial credit for that. Most (if not all) of the changes Brady has made have come on early downs, with Buffalo curbing its use of shotgun formations and running the ball more often—and more effectively—compared to last season.
Bills Offense on First Down, 2023 Vs. 2024
While the offense still mostly revolves around Allen, it’s become a run-first attack on first down. That has required a shift in personnel usage. Brady’s solution to most problems is to just throw another tight end on the field—and if that doesn’t work, he’ll send out a sixth offensive lineman. Buffalo is using jumbo personnel on a league-leading 15.2 percent of snaps, per Next Gen Stats. And the Bills add those extra big bodies to the formation’s core, creating a wide offensive front with as many as nine run gaps that the defense has to account for.
Lee: I just want to say, this is my kind of football.
Ruiz: These are mostly unbalanced looks. There are five blockers to the center’s right with only two to his left. Brady will spam runs to the weak side, hoping to get the defense flowing that way, which then creates cutback lanes for the running back.
If defenses try to fill those cutback lanes with aggressive linebackers, the Bills will use other run concepts to take advantage. Whatever it takes to get those 4- or 5-yard gains that keep Buffalo ahead of the chains. Brady’s ultimate goal seems to be getting into second-and-short—but truth be told, the new first-down approach isn’t all that efficient. The Bills are just above league average in expected points added per play, and they’re below average in success rate on first down. Yet no team has been better on second down, and Buffalo’s numbers on second-and-medium are downright scary. The Bills are averaging 0.38 EPA per play on second-and-4 or less. They’re averaging an absurd 1.04 EPA per dropback in those situations, per TruMedia, which leads the NFL. The Ravens rank second, at 0.70 EPA per dropback. If you let Allen get into these advantageous situations, where everything is in play for an offense, you don’t stand a chance.
The Bills don’t do a whole lot on early downs. Brady does a fantastic job of dressing up a handful of core concepts to keep defenses on their toes every week, but the success of this unit is based on putting a deep cast of talented players—led by an all-world quarterback—into advantageous situations where defenses can’t key in on the run or the pass. And if all else fails, asking Allen to pull offense out of his ass isn’t a bad break in case of emergency option—but we’ll talk more about that later. My question to you, Diante, is: How will Detroit’s defense try to win first down and stay out of situations where the line between run and pass is blurred?
Lee: Short answer: by putting big human beings on the field.
If there’s ever a week that Detroit will experience the schematic pains of losing so many players to injury, it’s this one. At the start of the season, defensive coordinator Aaron Glenn had everything he needed to run this defense properly. But with the current lack of depth in the front seven—Detroit is missing big contributors such as Alex Anzalone and Malcolm Rodriguez, and linemen Alim McNeill, DJ Reader, and Levi Onwuzurike are up in the air for this game—one of his hands may be tied behind his back.
When offenses add a second (or third) tight end to their offensive sets, Detroit matches it with base personnel 97 percent of the time. This week, though, given the lack of experience and impact players Glenn has at the second level, I expect to see him load up the line of scrimmage to keep his linebackers clean and take away the more obvious cutback windows. That’s generally a wise strategy if the goal is stopping Buffalo’s downhill rushing attack.
You can see that defensive plan on several first-down plays from the Week 14 Lions-Packers game. The Packers are more of a spread unit and use more gap schemes than the Bills do, but the thought process should be the same for Detroit: get into five-down looks (like under fronts and their Bear front package) and force offensive linemen to stay at the line of scrimmage.
Loading up the line of scrimmage robs a defense of its variability on the back end, though, and the game within the game on early downs will be dictated by the location of Lions safety Brian Branch. He’s Detroit’s problem solver on the back end, but he can also give the team an extra body in the box to stop the run. When he’s deep, it’s an indicator that Detroit is rotating into a two-deep zone—and the Lions will need to strike the right balance with his usage and location in the scheme (using pre-snap disguises, like in the clip below) to handle Buffalo’s play-action game.
If the Lions are able to deal with that without dropping Branch deep into coverage, that could force Josh Allen into hero mode earlier in the game. And there are plenty of reasons to expect Detroit to hold up well against 12 and 13 personnel: Since Week 10, the Lions are third in defensive success rate against runs from those groupings and tied for 10th in run stuff rate.
When Detroit has the football
Lee: The Lions are the quintessential bully-ball team. Save for the Philadelphia Eagles, no team’s film looks like Detroit’s when it comes to tossing defensive linemen out of the club and warping defenses—both at the point of attack and in creating cutback lanes.
Johnson is known for borrowing from offenses around the league, but Detroit doesn’t need a wide variety of options in the run game. You wouldn’t either if you had these kinds of blockers as the engine of your offense. Detroit mostly uses a combination of outside zone and a concept called duo—an aggressive run scheme that’s designed to get as many double-teams as possible. I know that you’ve heard of it, Ruiz.
Ruiz: Yes, the Bills love them some duo. I’ve seen a ton of it on Buffalo’s offensive film, but it’s not as pretty without Detroit’s offensive line.
Lee: The running back tandem of David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs has been dubbed “Sonic and Knuckles” by the Lions staff, and the gamer in me wants to call Detroit’s run game “Green Hill, Outside Zone.”
This is a niche superlative right off the Ringer NFL Show cutting room floor, but right tackle Penei Sewell may be the best backside tackle in the NFL on zone runs.
Ruiz: The football hipsters are swooning right now.
Lee: In the clip above, Sewell gets to the second level before Bears linebacker Tremaine Edmunds can affect the play or defensive end Jacob Martin can close off the cutback lane. If you’re a defense playing against this team, there’s virtually no way to keep cutback lanes this big from opening up aside from getting interior penetration or overaggressive play from your backside edge defender.
And let’s say a defense does plan to cut its edges loose and send them down the line of scrimmage to account for the cutback. Johnson is equipped with adjustments and answers, and one of his favorites is using receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown as an extra blocker at the line of scrimmage. As far as schematic thievery is concerned, this is where Johnson is wrist-deep in Sean McVay’s pockets—copying what the Rams did with receiver Robert Woods last decade. In the clip below, a short inside motion puts St. Brown in the location where you’d usually see a tight end, and he’s chip blocking Jacksonville’s edge rusher to keep him from cutting the play off.
Other times, if the Lions want to limit defensive penetration while keeping St. Brown involved at the point of attack, they come back to duo (affectionately known as “power without a puller” by coaches). By using a condensed formation, Detroit forces defensive backs to get involved in the run game, and the play generally results in a “safe” run that generates a decent gain even if the defense does its job.
I’d argue that Buffalo’s plan to defend this run scheme is the most important factor in the game because it will greatly influence whether the Lions can generate explosive plays. So, Ruiz, how will Buffalo’s defense stop it?
Ruiz: As a pretend Bills coach, this is the situation I’m most pretend worried about. Buffalo’s run defense can be bullied, and as Diante laid out, Detroit is the biggest bully on the block. You can take the Bills’ lunch money; you can shove their defensive front in a locker. And it’s almost by design.
Lee: I’ve noticed. The Bills want to keep five defensive backs on the field no matter what—they’ve played in their nickel package on 89 percent of their early downs this year and 97 percent of the time they’ve faced two tight end sets. That’s playing with fire against a Lions team that averages 5.8 yards per carry in 12 personnel against nickel defenses this year.
Ruiz: Somebody has been doing their research. But, yes, McDermott’s commitment to keeping five defensive backs on the field could be tested in this game. That system works against most offenses that operate out of shotgun formations. But the Lions will get under center and put bigger personnel on the field to run the damn football. Unsurprisingly, the Bills, who by playing nickel choose speed and agility in pass coverage over stout run defense, struggle against that. Against run plays from under-center formations with at least two tight ends on the field, the Bills rank 28th in EPA per run allowed and 27th in yards after contact, per TruMedia.
But there is an upside to this bold approach: The Bills don’t allow a lot of passes over the middle of the field against those offensive looks. Here’s their opponents’ passing heat map on dropbacks from under center outside of the red zone.
There are only four passes attempted between the numbers beyond 10 air yards, and two of them were intercepted! The Bills play a lot of zone coverage, which is what the offense wants on play-action passes, but Buffalo’s second level, which recently got Matt Milano back from injury, does a good job of squeezing those intermediate windows.
A little trivia question for you, Diante: Do you know which quarterback is tied for the second-most interceptions against zone coverage this season, with 10? Here’s a hint: He also threw double-digit picks against zone last season, per Next Gen Stats.
Lee: I’m gonna guess it’s Jared Goff.
Ruiz: That’s right, and the Bills will need him to add to that total on Sunday. I’m fully anticipating that Buffalo will get punked in the run game—for the most part. But if the Bills can prevent explosive passes and force Detroit to go on the long drives it’s been known for this season, it’ll take only one tackle for loss on first down to get Goff in a situation where he’s mistake prone. Second-and-long Goff is not nearly as efficient as second-and-manageable Goff.
Jared Goff’s Splits on Second Down, 2024
Lee: If Buffalo’s smaller bodies have to sell out to stop the run, the Lions will like their matchups against Buffalo’s safety tandem of Damar Hamlin and Taylor Rapp. They could be helpless against in-breaking throws to receiver Jameson Williams, just like the one below.
Ruiz: Yes, that is another major concern for this defense on early downs. Hamlin and Rapp will bite on routes in front of them—with as much quarters coverage as Buffalo plays, they’re often instructed to—which could leave the Bills susceptible to shots to Williams and even Tim Patrick over the top. Again, I’m very pretend worried about this particular situation, so can we just move on to the obvious passing downs already?
Passing Downs
When Buffalo has the football
Ruiz: Congratulations, Diante, you’ve beaten Buffalo on early downs. But now you’re stepping into Allen’s world. While we’ve seen a more subdued version of the Bills quarterback on first and second down this season, Allen’s fun side comes out when the offense enters obvious passing situations. His scramble rate jumps a few percentage points, his aDOT shoots up to 9.5 yards (from 6.3 on early “run downs”), and his EPA per dropback more than doubles. The Bills are one of the few offenses that perform better when the defense knows it has to pass, and they have their superstar quarterback to thank for that.
Slowing down Allen in these situations, when he’s more likely to either take off on a scramble or launch a ball downfield, is difficult on its own, but he’s also getting plenty of help from his supporting cast. That starts with how Brady deploys Buffalo’s receiving corps. The Bills use three-by-one formations more than any other team in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats. Amari Cooper, who was acquired before the trade deadline, has emerged as the team’s top isolation threat. If defenses try to cover Cooper one-on-one in man coverage, Allen will feed him, whether Cooper’s on a straight vertical shot or a shorter route where he can use his route-running chops to get open.
If the defense drops into zone coverage, Allen will go to the three-receiver side, where Khalil Shakir is typically working some sort of high-low combination with a Bills tight end, whether it’s the big-bodied Dawson Knox or the more agile Dalton Kincaid. Brady does a good job of moving people around and using pre-snap motion to prevent defenses from homing in on formational tendencies, but a lot of Buffalo’s play designs in obvious passing situations end up looking like this.
Unless you have a true lockdown corner who can take care of Cooper on his own, it can be difficult to defend both sides of the play concept. And that’s just the in-structure stuff. With Allen, there’s always a second play the defense has to defend, and that’s typically where he’ll show off that big arm of his. Per Next Gen Stats, Allen is averaging 18.7 air yards per attempt after scrambling from the pocket. That leads all qualified passers. He’s also hit nine different receivers on scramble passes of 10 or more air yards, so everyone on the field is an option. And I mean everyone.
And even if the defense covers everything up, Allen can just do this.
As simple as Buffalo’s approach is on third down, there’s just so much that a defense has to account for, and any slipup could result in an explosive play. I was going to ask you, Diante, a real-life defensive coordinator at the high school level, how you’d tried to defend this, but I kind of just want to give you a hug instead.
Lee: You know, when I said earlier this season that trading for Cooper would unlock this offense and make it the best in the NFL, I wasn’t expecting to be responsible for drawing up a game plan to stop it. This stinks.
In any conversation about how to get Buffalo’s offense off the field on third down, you have to start with Cooper. He’s the one-on-one winner, and Detroit plays Cover 1 on 52 percent of its obvious third-down passing situations (4-plus yards to convert). Rookie corner Terrion Arnold is fast and physical, and he has the right kind of body type to deal with Cooper’s route tree in this situation—a combination of go routes, hitches, and slants. But Allen’s accuracy and arm talent are unique issues to deal with, and he’s not afraid to take chances against tight coverage, which is tough for a young defensive back who already has seven pass interference penalties this season—tied for the NFL lead. Arnold has to stay in control and on Cooper’s hip without impeding the receiver, and that could mean hearing the ball whiz by his ear for a first down.
If Arnold or his teammates can’t win on their own, or if Allen takes advantage of the Lions’ man coverage looks by scrambling, Detroit has a couple of changeups it can throw at the problem. This defense hasn’t gone up against many mobile quarterbacks this season, but it can use the games against Arizona and Indianapolis as a rough framework. First, Detroit will crank up its aggression and fill all the rush lanes with a blitz. Usually, these are targeted at the running back to keep him in protection, but they also serve to crowd the pocket and take away escape lanes.
If there are matchup problems (or the down and distance are too deep for a scramble), that’s when you’ll see Glenn play a softer zone shell, trying to instead crowd the quarterback’s throwing windows.
Honestly, the thought of defending Buffalo’s offense with the kind of aggression that Detroit prefers makes me queasy, but I submit to the fact that it’s been working for the Lions—even with the injuries mounting. Vaya con Dios, Aaron Glenn.
When Detroit has the football
Lee: First off, there’s the issue of getting this offense into obvious passing downs to begin with. The Lions have just 86 dropbacks on third down with 4-plus yards to gain this season, which is the second fewest in the NFL.
Ruiz: You’re giving me heartburn with all of these damn numbers, and I’m not actually game-planning against this offense.
Lee: In the event that defenses do get Detroit into obvious passing situations, the Lions’ talented receiving corps is tough to beat in man coverage. So it’s no surprise, then, that this routinely on-schedule offense is converting 69 percent of its third-down passes.
For as effective as this team is, though, this still isn’t the most inventive passing offense on third down—but that works to Goff’s benefit. Johnson creates layers in the passing progression that provide Goff with simple answers depending on the coverage. And that allows the quarterback to make confident decisions with the ball. A hallmark of this passing game is its use of choice routes and shallow crossers underneath, and that’s how St. Brown generates the same value in the passing game that he does as a blocker.
In the clip below, Houston masks a quarter-quarter-half shell (a mix of Cover 4 and Cover 2) by giving a pre-snap look of a single-high shell (in this case, Cover 1). Instead of Goff being tripped up by the disguise, though, he diagnoses where to go with the ball by reading St. Brown’s route and throws it away from the nearest coverage defender.
Ruiz: I know this isn’t helping my case, but only three teams have allowed more total EPA to slot receivers on third-down passes than the Bills this season. St. Brown will be a problem that McDermott and defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will need to have multiple solutions for on Sunday.
Lee: Right, and as you’re watching that clip, make note of Williams wrapping around on an in-breaking route. That’s the kind of “layering” within a progression that creates vertical spacing issues for a defense. St. Brown can be used as a decoy in this regard, too, prying open throwing windows on clear-out routes, like in the clip below.
Ultimately, I see this game being decided by whether Williams can generate explosive plays—and I think this offense’s ceiling is tied to his game-breaking speed, too. Forty-four percent of his receptions gain more than 15 yards, and he keeps defenses from spending all their resources trying to stop the run or crowd St. Brown with bodies in coverage. Buffalo better have two pairs of eyes on him, or it’ll be in trouble.
Ruiz: Look, if the Lions are living in third-and-4, the Bills defense won’t come off the field. Buffalo will just have to survive those plays without giving up a massive gain and challenge Detroit to start the process over again on first down. McDermott’s defense isn’t built to stop the Lions if there’s a looming run threat. But the Bills have plenty of experience dealing with the threat Detroit will pose in obvious passing situations. The personnel and quarterbacks are obviously different, but the Dolphins offense, which Buffalo sees twice a season, is designed to attack defenses in a similar way. Both Detroit and Miami try to pry open the middle of the field for their quarterbacks to throw in-breaking routes.
Buffalo hasn’t always had success against Mike McDaniel’s offense, but it’s been better over the past two years since McDermott took over as defensive play caller in 2023 and then promoted Babich into the role earlier this year. This version of the Bills defense is doing more to disguise its coverages and attack what offenses do best. McDermott worked under legendary Eagles defensive coordinator Jim Johnson, the father of the double-A gap blitz, in his younger years as a coach, and Babich worked under Mike Pettine, a disciple of Rex Ryan. You combine those two backgrounds, and this defensive staff has a lot of pressures and disguised coverages it can throw at a quarterback. Johnson has built guardrails into the offense to prevent Goff from having to make complex reads, but it’ll take only one or two mishaps to swing the game in Buffalo’s favor. In a mismatch like this—I’m strictly talking about this side of the ball—a high-variance approach would work best for the defense.
Ultimately, though, it will come down to the players. The Bills will need Milano to make an All-Pro play in the middle of the field and Taron Johnson to have one of his better games of the season as both a cover corner in the slot and a nickel run defender. They’ll also need edge rushers Greg Rousseau, one of the league leaders in quarterback pressures, and Von Miller, who’s played well since his return from his suspension for violating the NFL’s personal conduct policy, to get the better of their matchups with Detroit’s Pro Bowl tackles. A good game plan on its own won’t beat this Lions team.
Who Has the Advantage?
Lee: This game will come down to how much weight Allen has to bear—and how little Goff does in comparison. I think Detroit’s offense is well-situated to attack each of Buffalo’s stress points in the secondary, but I don’t think its defense is equipped to handle both facets of the Bills offense. The margins will be tight, and Buffalo will need some help from its pass rush to tip the scales, but I’m not picking against the version of Josh Allen we’ve been watching the past two months.
Bills 27, Lions 26.
Ruiz: I’m not even going to pretend like my team has a chance on early downs. I just can’t see Buffalo’s run defense slowing down Detroit, which means Goff will be living in second- and third-and-short all game. If the Bills are going to win this one, they’ll have to tighten up in the red zone and force field goals or get fourth-down stops. But if Buffalo can establish some kind of a run game on first down, Allen will have no problem keeping up with the Lions offense. In a matchup that could (and probably will) come down to a handful of coin flips, I’ll take the team with the superhuman talent at quarterback.
Bills 34, Lions 30.
