Ambrosia trifida is a kind of malignant invasive plant, which has very high reproductive and en-vironmental adaptability. Through strong resource acquisition ability and allelopathy, it could inhibit the growth and reproduction of surrounding plants, destroy the stability of an invasive ecosystem. It is very important to predict the change of suitable distribution area of Ambrosia trifida with climate change before implementing scientific control measures. Based on 106 Ambrosia trifida distribution data and 14 environmental data, the optimal parameter combination (RM = 0.1, FC = LQ) was obtained by using the MaxEnt model optimized by Kuenm package, the potential suit-able areas of Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China under three different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with different emission intensities in the future (2050,2070) were predicted. The changes of Ambrosia trifida suitable area in Northeast China under three climate scenarios were compared, and the relationship between the change of suitable area and emission intensity was analyzed. In general, the suitable area of Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China will expand gradually in the future, and the area of its highly suitable area will also increase with the increasing emission intensity, which is unfavorable to the control of Ambrosia trifida.

In recent years, the problem of ecosystem degradation caused by human activities has become increasingly serious. Vegetation restoration is a key means to solve this problem, which has increased. To address the suitability and structural optimization of vegetation restoration in the Loess Plateau, the MaxEnt model was used to quantify the impacts of environmental and human activities on the planting suitability of vegetation restoration species at the raster scale. Three layers of trees, shrubs, and herbs with 12 common vegetation restoration species were selected. The factor index system was constructed by combining climatic, ecological, and socio-economic data, and the MaxEnt model predicted land suitability. It was found that human activities significantly increased the unsuitable planting area. This especially affected Robinia pseudoacacia in the tree layer and Amorpha fruticosa in the shrub layer. Highly suitable and moderately suitable areas were mainly located in sparsely populated areas with close water sources. Through maximum suitability optimization, it was identified that the overall spatial distribution of the three layers in the study area was relatively consistent, and the structural dominance of trees + shrubs + herbs and single herbs in the vertical structure was obvious, which were concentrated in the southwestern and northeastern parts of the study area, respectively. In addition, organic content (OC) and distance from the road to woodland (RW) were the dominant factors affecting land suitability, with a contribution rate of more than 50% and up to 80%. These results provide a scientific basis for optimizing planting structures. They are of significant theoretical and practical significance in guiding vegetation restoration work.

Cultivation is advocated as a solution for sustainable exploitation of medicinal plants. Understanding environmental factors influencing plant species distribution will eliminate the introduction of medicinal plants indiscriminately to inappropriate cultivation regions. The study investigated environmental conditions for the distribution of Artemisia afra and mapped out potential areas for its cultivation in South Africa. Soil samples were collected in the Free State Province in South Africa for analysis. To identify suitable environmental conditions for the natural distribution of A. afra, the South African National Botanical Institute database and physically collected Global Positioning System points were used in maximum entropy model. Monthly long-term average interpolated weather surfaces were used to estimate the effect of climate change on future climate suitability for A. afra distribution. Sixty-one percent of soil samples from different A. afra populations were clay loam soils with slightly acidic to neutral pH. The carbon source utilization, Shannon Weaver Index, and species richness were positively correlated to one group of fourteen soil samples, and species evenness was positively correlated to the second group, consisting of four samples. Climate change will only affect the distribution of A. afra in the very long term. The current study provides critical information for identifying suitable cultivation areas for A. afra, while supporting conservation efforts from an ecological point.

Potential distribution models are used to predict the presence and geographic limits of a species as a function of bioclimatic variables. The lack of knowledge of the geographic distribution of species endemic to Mexico is a limiting factor in understanding their ecology, conservation, and potential applications. Distribution models were generated with occurrence data of 11 species of the genus Zephyranthes, 19 bioclimatic and three topographic variables with the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) method. The dimensionality reduction analysis (PCA) allowed determining that, of the 19 variables, four contributed the highest percentage to the classification of the models, explaining more than 80% of the accumulated variance. The resulting models were evaluated according to the value of the area under the curve (AUC) and potential distribution models with AUC values >0.89 were obtained. The results suggest that most species are distributed in the biogeographic province of the Transmexican Volcanic Belt. Zephyranthes concolor was the species with the largest potential distribution area. The species with the most restricted potential distribution was Zephyranthes sessilis.

Oedaleus decorus asiaticus, Calliptamus abbreviatus, Angaracris rhodopa, and Myrmeleotettix palpalis are the main grasshoppers that harm the natural grassland in the Hexi Corridor. In this study, the MaxEnt model was employed to identify the key environmental factors affecting the distribution of the four grasshoppers habitats and to assess their distribution under current and future climate change conditions. The aim was to provide a basis for grasshopper monitoring, prediction, and precise control. In this study, 61 occurrences of O. decorus asiaticus, 68 occurrences of A. rhodopa, 58 occurrences of C. abbreviatus, and 92 occurrences of M. palpalis were recorded by GPS, and the distribution of suitable habitats for O. decorus asiaticus, C. abbreviatus, A. rhodopa, and M. palpalis were predicted under current and future climatic scenarios using a MaxEnt model. The average AUC and TSS values of the four grasshoppers were greater than 0.9, and the simulation results were excellent and highly reliable. The mean annual precipitation was the main factor limiting the current range of suitable areas for these four species. Under the current climate, O. asiaticus, C. abbreviatus, and A. rhodopa were mainly distributed in the central and eastern parts of the Hexi Corridor, and M. palpalis was distributed throughout the Hexi Corridor, with a potential distribution area of 1.44×104, 1.43×104, 1.29×104, and 2.12×104 km2, accounting for 15.3, 15.2, 13.7, and 22.5% of the total area of the grasslands in the Hexi Corridor, respectively. The highly suitable areas of O. asiaticus, C. abbreviatus, and A. rhodopa were mainly distributed in the east-central part of Zhangye City, the western part of Wuwei City, and the western and southern part of Jinchang City, with areas of 0.35×104, 0.29×104, and 0.20×104 km2, accounting for 3.7, 3, and 2.2% of the grassland area, respectively. The high habitat of M. palpalis was mainly distributed in the southeast of Jiuquan City, the west, middle, and east of Zhangye City, the west of Wuwei City, and the west and south of Jinchang City, with an area of 0.32×104 km2, accounting for 3.4% of the grassland area. In the 2030s, the range of O. asiaticus, C. abbreviatus, A. rhodopa, and M. palpalis was predicted to decrease.

Potential breeding habitat of egrets and herons was evaluated using the Maximum Entropy Model (MaxEnt). Model output can help guide management of nuisance egret and heron rookeries in urban forests of Daejeon Metropolitan City, Korea. This study examined 126 locations regarded as breeding sites of egrets and herons at the nationwide census conducted by the National Institute of Environmental Research between 2011 and 2012. In addition, 252 randomly selected locations were used to identify the significant variables among a total of 15 environmental variables within 4 factors (topography, natural environment, distance and climate). Twelve variables were significantly different between the breeding and randomly selected points. The final 10 variables were selected through Pearson’s correlation analysis. Using MaxEnt, breeding area was estimated using the 10 selected variables in Daejeon. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was 0.950, which was the average value through 10-fold cross-validation to estimate the model reliability. The potential breeding habitat for egrets and herons was estimated to be 106.69 km2 (19.76% of the total area) in Daejeon. Within the estimated potential habitat, 11.82 km2 (12.46%) were less than 50 m from the residential district while 79.85 km2 (88.92%) were more than 50m from the residential district. Discriminative management strategies considering the breeding location of egrets and herons should be applied not only to minimize conflicts with residents, but also to maintain stable egret and heron breeding sites in Daejeon, Korea.

Histia rhodope is an oligophagous pest that only feeds on Bischofia polycarpa. Recently, frequent outbreaks of H. rhodope have greatly impacted the urban landscape and people’s life. The taxonomic status and diffusion trend of H. rhodope were studied based on its mitogenome sequence and the MaxEnt model. The mitogenome stucture of H. rhodope has certain conserved character. The species of lepidopteran moths in each superfamily and family were monophyletic. The genetic distance between H. rhodope and Eterusia aedea was the closest (0.09). By 2050, the suitable habitat area of H. rhodope is expected to increase (71.63 × 104 km2). The centroid changes of the distribution of H. rhodope shifted from Anhui to Hubei province (distance shifted: 255.71 km). Climate factor like annual mean temperature, mean temperature of driest quarter, precipitation seasonality, and precipitation of coldest quarter affected the distribution of H. rhodope, and the suitable habitat of the host plant of biotic factor is the potential invasion area for its further spread. Our results revealed the taxonomic status of H. rhodope across lepidopteran moths, emphasized the risk of its spread and the important role of host plant, provided valuable molecular and ecological data for managing and monitoring H. rhodope.

Climate change poses a serious threat to the ancient Magnoliaceae family, particularly for the endangered Yulania trees. Until now, little is known about the suitable geographical range of Yulania zenii, and about how it responds to past and future climate scenarios. Here, we first employed ten models from Biomod2 to preliminarily simulate its potential distribution in China and selected MaxEnt for final modeling. The results showed that among the key environmental factors influencing its distribution, the top three factors were Bio2 (Mean diurnal range), Bio15 (Precipitation seasonality of variation coefficient) and Elevation. Its current suitable distribution were primarily concentrated in southern Anhui, central Hubei, eastern Hunan, southern Jiangsu, northern Jiangxi, and northern Zhejiang. The total suitable area of Yulania zenii was 14.68 × 104 km2, only taking 1.53% of China's total territory, which is larger than known. During the Last Interglacial and Middle Holocene, its suitable habitats were larger than currently, exhibiting a relatively continuous distribution. Under various future climate scenarios, its suitable habitats may averagely decrease by 20.26% compared with the current, and these habitats become more fragmented. Collectively, the centroid of Yulania zenii is expected to migrate towards the southeast in the future. Therefore, our findings demonstrate, for the first time, that climate change takes an adverse effect on this species in distribution from the past to current till future. Our study can contribute to the conservation and management of Yulania zenii in China, and can provide reference for other endangered Yulania species of this country under the condition of climate change.

Emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis, an invasive phloem-boring beetle, was detected in the Luhansk Region of Ukraine in 2019. In the following years, it expanded to a large part of the Kharkiv region and the parks of Kyiv. Previous research proved that the climate in Luhansk and neighboring regions is favorable for EAB, and the lack of a host plant (Fraxinus sp.) cannot prevent pest expansion in Ukraine. Considering the necessity to detect inhabited trees in time, our current research aimed to identify the most attractive EAB forest subcompartments considering forest site conditions and stand structure. MaxEnt model predicted the potential distribution of EAB with high accuracy (AUC = 0.842). The most significant five variables provided 82.9% to the model, particularly «Age of trees, years», «Area of forest subcompartment, ha», «Mean height of trees, m», «The proportion of Fraxinus excelsior in the stand composition, %», and «Hygrotope index (humidity level), point». A very high probability of EAB expansion in the Luhansk region (>90 %) is predicted at 20 % of the forest area with Fraxinus sp. in the stand composition. The probability of EAB spread above 30% is predicted for 75 % of such area. To improve the forecasting accuracy, it could be necessary to consider the data on road localization along which the pest can spread passively, as well as dominate wind speed.

In the recent past, the number of invasive species around the world has increased significantly due to increased globalization and climate change. Understanding biological invasions under climate change is crucial for sustainable conservation of biodiversity. The insect pest Pseudococcus viburni (Signoret) can cause damages to plants, resulting in leaf yellowing, leaf defoliation, and reduced plant growth. A serious attack by this insect post can even lead to the entire plant withering and dying, bringing huge economic and ecological losses. Despite these damages, the potential distribution range and management strategies for this insect pest are poorly understood. Based on historical distribution data and environmental factors, the present study predicted the potentially suitable areas for P. viburni spread under different climate change scenarios using MaxEnt (maximum entropy). The results showed that precipitation of the coldest quarter (Bio19), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), and mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8) were the most important environmental factors determining the distribution of P. viburni. Under the current climate conditions, its potential suitable areas are southern China, the whole of Japan, North America (especially the eastern part of the United States), the southwestern part of South America, the Mediterranean coast and most of Europe, the central part of Africa i.e., the south of the Sahara Desert and most of the southern coast of Australia. The total area of habitats suitable for this insect pest is predicted to be increased in the future. In order to prevent P. viburni transmission and spread, there is a need to strengthen the monitoring and quarantine measures against this pest at the Southern ports.

Species distribution modeling (SDM) has come a long way since its inception. Starting as simple bioclimatic envelope models based on expert knowledge, species distribution models (SDMs) have evolved into complex and sophisticated models that incorporate multiple sources of data and machine learning algorithms. Today, SDMs play a crucial role in addressing pressing conservation and management issues, including the impacts of climate change on species ranges and the as-sessment of species vulnerability to extinction. In this article, we will embark on a journey through the history, present, and future of SDM, exploring its evolution from bioclimatic envelopes to machine learning. We will also provide practical tips on how to use SDMs effectively and discuss the exciting future developments in this field. Whether you are a seasoned SDM expert or new to this field, this article will provide valuable insights into the exciting world of SDM. By exploring the rich history and current state of the field, we hope to shed light on the tremendous potential of SDM for improving our understanding of the distribution of species in a changing world.

The thermocontextual interpretation (TCI) establishes a system’s exergy, entropic energy, and thermal entropy as thermocontextual properties of state, defined with respect to its positive temperature surroundings. This work extends previous applications of the TCI to irreversible and statistical transitions. The TCI defines statistical entropy as a transactional process of derandomization and transition to a negative-entropy state. Statistical measurements of a confined quantum particle’s position are detailed in terms of reversible processes of instantiation and actualization. The TCI then formalizes the MaxEnt as a fundamental physical principle. We apply MaxEnt and statistical entropy measurements to the double-slit experiment. Particles passing through parallel slits record a wave interference pattern, but a “which-slit” detector eliminates wave interference. Richard Feynman called the double-slit experiment the only mystery, at the heart of quantum mechanics. The TCI offers a simple explanation. The which-slit detector breaks the system’s symmetry, enabling particles to pass through one slit or the other, and MaxEnt selects the asymmetrical transition, which has no wave interference and a higher statistical entropy.

Research Highlights: Hagenia abyssinica is geographically localized, poor regenerated and endangered species in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has been experiencing variability of rainfall and rise in temperature due to the climate change. This study has hypothesized that the suitable areas for the species will be narrowed by the year 2070. Background and Objective The prediction of species distribution models help to implement appropriate conservation actions. The aim of this research was to identify the current and likely future distribution range and suitable areas for the species, and to determine the presence of H. absyssinica in risk in a short-term future. Material and method: To this end, occurrence data, bioclim variables, soil, elevation, and land cover map of Ethiopia were used. MaxEnt was used to predict distribution. Climate change impacts on the distribution of the species was performed using bioclimatic variables of the future climate data, 2070 (average for 2061-2080) was obtained from IPPC5 (CMIP5) at 30 seconds (1km) spatial resolution. The climate data was projected from GCMs, downscaled and calibrated using rcp4.5. Results: Both current and likely future distribution models were excellent and significantly better than random performance. This study has computed 59987 km2 to be the low impact area for the species under current conditions and will remain habitat under future climates and 39025 km2 area has been identified as the possible high impact areas or declining habitat. The model has also determined that 1238724 km2 of the areas are unsuitable at present and for future climates. The current study found that 15751 km2 of the area will be modified as a new suitable area for H. abyssinica due to climate change. Conclusion: Species distribution modeling is essential for the implementation of conservation actions that are compatible with the inevitable changing climatic conditions of the country.

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern US. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two, phylogenetically disjunct mountainous regions. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, CCSM and MIROC, under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics Area Under Curve test and the True Skill Statistics (mean AUC = 0.91± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 4.5, and mean AUC = 0.87± 0.0031SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the Southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.

Oncomelania Hupensis is the exclusive intermediary host of Schistosoma japonicum in China. The alteration of its habitat and population distribution directly affects the safety of millions of individuals residing in the Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), and the ecological stability. Therefore, it is crucial to analyse the influence of climate change on the distribution of O. Hupensis in order to achieve accurate control over its population. This study utilised the MaxENT model to forecast possible snail habitats by utilising snail distribution data obtained from historical literature. The subsequent outcomes were achieved: The primary ecological factors influencing the distribution of O. Hupensis are elevation, minimum temperature of coldest month, and precipitation of wettest month; Furthermore, future climate scenarios indicate a decrease in the distribution area and a northward shift of the distribution centre for O. hupensis; Specifically, those in the upstream will move northeast, while those in the midstream and downstream will move northwest; These changes in suitable habitat area, the average migration distance of distribution centers across different climate scenarios, time periods, and sub-basins within the YREB, resulting in uncertainty. This study offers theoretical justification for the prevention and control of O. hupensis along the YREB.

Cotton cultivation and sustaining its productivity is challenging in temperate arid regions around the globe. Exploring suitable cotton cultivation areas to improve productivity in such climatic regions is essential. Thus, this study explores the ecologically suitable areas of cotton cultivation using the Maxent model, having 375 distribution points of long-staple cotton and various factors, including 19 climatic factors, 2 terrain factors, and 6 soil factors in Xinjiang. The area under the curve (AUC) of the predicted results was greater than 0.9, indicating that the model's predictions had fairly high accuracy. However, the main environmental factors that affect cotton's growth are the lowest temperature in the coldest month, the hottest month, the precipitation in the driest season, and the monthly average temperature difference. Further, the temperature factors contribute 71%, while the contribution ratio of terrain and soil factors is only 22%. The research shows that the current planting area is consistent with the predicted area in many areas of the study. Still, some areas, such as the Turpan region, northwest of Bayingolin Mongol Autonomous Prefecture, are supposed to be suitable for planting cotton, but it is not planted. The current potential distribution area of long-staple cotton is mainly located in Aksu Prefecture and the northern part of the Kashgar Prefecture region. The climatic prediction shows that the growing area of long-staple cotton may expand to southern Altay, central Aksu, and Bortala Mongol Autonomous Prefecture. This study will be helpful for cotton cultivation suitability areas in Xinjiang and other regions with similar environments.

The reduction of biodiversity loss is one of the targets of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. The protection of endangered species is critical for conserving global biodiversity. Asian elephants，as one of the last few mega-herbivores on Earth, are currently threatened by climate changes and anthropogenic modifications. The modelling of their living habitats is of top priority to the conservation of Asian elephant. In this study, we used the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt) to identify the current and potential future habitats of Asian elephants in South and Southeast Asia. We performed analyses for future projections with 17 scenarios by using the present results as baseline. To optimise the modelling results, we delineated the core habitats by using the Core Mapper Tool and compared them with existing protected areas (PAs) through gap analysis. The results showed that the current total area of core habitats is 491,455 km2 in size and will be reduced to 332,544 km2 by 2090 under SSP585 (the shared socioeconomic pathway). The projection analysis under differential scenarios suggested that most of the core habitats in the current protected areas would remain stable and suitable for elephants in the future. However, the remaining 75.17% of the core habitats lay outside the current PAs, and finally we mapped approximately 219,545 km2 of suitable habitats as priority protected areas in the future. Although our model did not perform well in some regions, our analyses and findings still could provide useful references to the planning of protected areas and conservation of Asian elephant.

We work with reference to a well-known semiclassical model, in which quantum degrees of freedom interact with classical ones. We show that, in the classical limit, it is possible to represent classical results (e.g., classical chaos) by means a pure-state density matrix.

Vopson and Lepadatu recently proposed the Second Law of Infodynamics. The law states that while total entropy increases, information entropy declines over time. They state that the law has applications over a wide range of disciplines, but they leave many key questions unanswered. This article analyzes and reformulates the law based on the thermocontextual interpretation (TCI). The TCI generalizes Hamiltonian mechanics by defining states and transitions thermocontextually, with respect to an ambient-temperature reference state. The TCI partitions energy into ambient heat, which is thermally random and unknowable, and exergy, which is knowable and usable. The TCI is further generalized here to account for a reference observer’s actual knowledge. This enables partitioning exergy into accessible exergy, which is known and accessible for use, and configurational energy, which is knowable but unknown and inaccessible. The TCI is firmly based on empirically validated postulates. The Second Law of thermodynamics and its information-based analogue, MaxEnt are logically derived corollaries. Another corollary is a reformulated Second Law of Infodynamics. It states that an external agent seeks to increase its access to exergy by narrowing its information gap with a potential exergy source. The principle is key to the origin of self-replicating chemicals and life.

Prunus armeniaca L. is the native species of cultivated apricot, which is important information for studying the origin, succession pattern, pest control, sustainable development of biodiversity of economic tree species of the genus Apricot, etc. However, with global climate change and increasingly intense human activities, the survival environment of Prunus armeniaca L. is under serious stress, and exploring the potential survival space of Prunus armeniaca L. is an important way to protect the health and development of Prunus armeniaca L.. Exploring the potential living space of Prunus armeniaca L. is an important way to protect the healthy development of Prunus armeniaca L. The Yili River Valley is a typical distribution area of Prunus armeniaca L. . Exploring the potential distribution suitable area of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley and analyzing its future change trend can provide scientific guidance for the protection, development, and utilization of Prunus armeniaca L.. Based on the Geographic Information System software platform combined with the MaxEnt Model, we simulated the potential distribution areas and the degree of adaptation of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley, and predicted the potential distribution changes of Prunus armeniaca L. in the future under different situations. Based on the above methods, the following results were obtained: (1) The MaxEnt Model simulated the geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. with high accuracy and an AUC value of 0.969, and the area of the currently suitable area for Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley was about 10407.77 km2, accounting for about 18.45% of the overall land area of the Yili River Valley; the area of the highly suitable area was about 1380.9 km², accounting for about 13.26%, the area of the medium suitable zone is about 2830.15km², and the area of low suitable zone is about 6196.05km². (2) The maximum increase in the total area of the suitable zone under the future low-radiation forcing scenario is 11.49%, and the minimum increase under the future medium-high forcing scenario is 4.94%. (3) The overall migration was in the southwest direction, with the largest migration angle under the SSP245 scenario and the largest migration distance under the SSP585 scenario. Under the background of future climate change, there is a tendency for the potential habitat of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley to expand from low altitude to high altitude, and altitude is the dominant geographic factor influencing the distribution of Prunus armeniaca L.. By simulating and studying the potential geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. in the Yili River Valley under the background of climate change, we can reveal the response mechanism between the geographic distribution of Prunus armeniaca L. and the natural environment, which can provide scientific guidance and data support for the exploitation and protection of Prunus armeniaca L. in the future.

The Asian longhorned beetle (ALB), Anoplophora glabripennis is a forestry pest found worldwide. ALB causes serious harm because of the lack of natural enemies in the invaded areas. Dastarcus helophoroides and Dendrocopos major are important natural enemies of ALB. MaxEnt was used to simulate the distribution of D. helophoroides and D. major in China and Xinjiang, and their suitable areas were superimposed to evaluate the pest control ability of D. helophoroides and D. major. The results showed that, with climate change, the suitable areas of D. helophoroides and D. major migrated northward; the centroid shift of ALB was greater than that of D. helophoroides and D. major, which would lead to fewer natural enemies encountered by ALB during migration, reduce the control ability of natural enemies, and increase the risk of disastrous outbreaks in the invaded areas. We found that the damage caused by ALB was not serious in the areas with natural enemies and very serious in the areas without natural enemies. We suggest that natural enemies should be included in the model used for predicting suitable areas for invasive pests, as this is more conducive to assessing the risks of invasive organisms to the local ecological environment.

The Cape Restionaceae species, an endemic of the Fynbos Biome, is threatened by urbanization, alien plant invasion, agricultural expansion, and groundwater extraction. This is further worsened by the semi-arid conditions and hydrological variability factors, which influences species niche dynamics. Therefore, it is important to assess and monitor the Restionaceae species for preservation of their endemism and richness. This study models the hydrological niche and distribution changes of Restionaceae species at the New Years Peak (NYP) at microclimate level for biodiversity conservation. MaxEnt modelling and GIS analytical approaches were applied at various stages in niche modelling process as follows: (i) microclimatic input raster layers’ generation, (ii) ecological modelling and hydrological niche manipulation, and (iii) spatial distributional change mapping. The hydrological niches of the Restionaceae were effectively examined under the recent climate and compared with RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 future climate scenarios as the microscale environmental inputs. The results showed that most of the studied Restionaceae species positioned themselves along a hydrological gradient. Each species tolerated a range of hydrological conditions, which formed their hydrological niche. Changing climate would cause both positive and negative species range shifts. The study assists in plant species conservation and future climate change impact analysis on endangered plant species.

Information-related measures are useful tools for multi-variable data analysis, as measures of dependence among variables, and as descriptions of order and disorder in biological and physical systems. Measures, like marginal entropies, mutual / interaction / multi -information, have long been used in a number of fields including descriptions of systems complexity and biological data analysis. The mathematical relationships among these measures are therefore of significant inherent interest. Relations between common information measures include the duality relations based on Möbius inversion on lattices. These are the direct consequence of the symmetries of the lattices of the sets of variables (subsets ordered by inclusion). While these relationships are of significant interest there has been, to our knowledge, no systematic examination of the full range of relationships of this diverse range of functions into a unifying formalism as we do here. In this paper we define operators on functions on these lattices based on the Möbius inversions that map functions into one another (Möbius operators). We show that these operators form a simple group isomorphic to the symmetric group S₃. Relations among the set of functions on the lattice are transparently expressed in terms of the operator algebra, and, applied to the information measures, can be used to derive a wide range of relationships among diverse information measures. The Möbius operator algebra is naturally generalized which yields extensive new relationships. This formalism now provides a fundamental unification of information-related measures, and the isomorphism of all distributive lattices with the subset lattice implies an even broader application of these results.

This paper develops Bayesian inference in reliability of a class of scale mixtures of log-normal failure time (SMLNFT) models with stochastic (or uncertain) constraint in their reliability measures. The class is comprehensive and includes existing failure time (FT) models (such as log-normal, log-Cauchy, and log-logistic FT models) as well as new models that are robust in terms of heavy-tailed FT observations. Since classical frequency approaches to reliability analysis based on the SMLNFT model with stochastic constraint are intractable, the Bayesian method is pursued utilizing a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling based approach. This paper introduces a two-stage maximum entropy (MaxEnt) prior, which elicits a priori uncertain constraint and develops Bayesian hierarchical SMLNFT model by using the prior. The paper also proposes an MCMC method for Bayesian inference in the SMLNFT model reliability and calls attention to properties of the MaxEnt prior that are useful for method development. Finally, two data sets are used to illustrate how the proposed methodology works.