Cities and Suburbs Help Biden Flip Wisconsin
2016
+0.8 Trump
2020
+0.6 Biden
Current statewide margin
Joseph R. Biden Jr. flipped Wisconsin, a state that Democratic presidential candidates had won for decades until Donald J. Trump took it in 2016. Mr. Biden’s win came in part from the strength of voters in cities and suburbs. Their heavy shift left countered the rural voters who continued to back Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump sought to find new voters among the ranks of white blue-collar voters who helped him win in 2016 rather than appealing to other constituencies. He seemed to find plenty of these new voters in Wisconsin, often in rural areas.
Margin in 2020
Biden
Trump
Wisconsin has one of the highest proportions of white voters without college degrees in the country, and few voters of color. But in the end, Mr. Biden claimed 20,000 more votes than Mr. Trump, with healthy margins in more populated counties like Dane, home of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Milwaukee.
Shift in county margins from 2016
Share of white population
with no college degree
Fewer college educated
More college educated
Turnout was up 13 percent in the mainly rural counties that favored Mr. Trump in 2016, compared with 7 percent in counties that Hillary Clinton won. In rural Burnett County, for instance, voting surged 16 percent, and Mr. Trump took the lion’s share of the total vote, maintaining his 28-point margin from 2016.
Turnout in 2020
100% 125%
But in Brown County, home of the vote-rich Green Bay, where turnout was up 12 percent, Mr. Trump’s vote margin dropped from 2016. It’s a swing county that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and Mr. Trump in 2016. In Ozaukee County, just north of Milwaukee, his margin also dropped.
Though Democrats made gains in some of the counties Mr. Obama won twice and Mr. Trump flipped four years ago, over all, many remained solidly Republican in 2020.