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Cities and Suburbs Help Biden Flip Wisconsin

2016

+0.8 Trump

2020

+0.6 Biden

Current statewide margin

Joseph R. Biden Jr. flipped Wisconsin, a state that Democratic presidential candidates had won for decades until Donald J. Trump took it in 2016. Mr. Biden’s win came in part from the strength of voters in cities and suburbs. Their heavy shift left countered the rural voters who continued to back Mr. Trump.

MilwaukeeGreen BayMadison
Shift from 2016
In counties that have reported almost all of their votes
More Democratic
More Republican

Mr. Trump sought to find new voters among the ranks of white blue-collar voters who helped him win in 2016 rather than appealing to other constituencies. He seemed to find plenty of these new voters in Wisconsin, often in rural areas.

MilwaukeeGreen BayMadison

Margin in 2020

Circles show the size of lead in each county.

Biden

Trump

Wisconsin has one of the highest proportions of white voters without college degrees in the country, and few voters of color. But in the end, Mr. Biden claimed 20,000 more votes than Mr. Trump, with healthy margins in more populated counties like Dane, home of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, and Milwaukee.

Shift in county margins from 2016

Share of white population
with no college degree

+10D
0
+10R

Fewer college educated

More college educated

Turnout was up 13 percent in the mainly rural counties that favored Mr. Trump in 2016, compared with 7 percent in counties that Hillary Clinton won. In rural Burnett County, for instance, voting surged 16 percent, and Mr. Trump took the lion’s share of the total vote, maintaining his 28-point margin from 2016.

MilwaukeeGreen BayMadison

Turnout in 2020

Colors show total votes compared with 2016.

100% 125%

But in Brown County, home of the vote-rich Green Bay, where turnout was up 12 percent, Mr. Trump’s vote margin dropped from 2016. It’s a swing county that voted for Barack Obama in 2008 and Mr. Trump in 2016. In Ozaukee County, just north of Milwaukee, his margin also dropped.

Though Democrats made gains in some of the counties Mr. Obama won twice and Mr. Trump flipped four years ago, over all, many remained solidly Republican in 2020.

Margin of victory in Wisconsin counties since 2008

Each line shows margins in one county over time