Special Features

Major Hurricane Kirk is centered near 22.3N 48.1W at 04/0900 UTC or 880 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 45 ft. Satellite imagery this afternoon shows a 20 nm wide eye. Widespread to numerous strong convection is seen within 300 nm in the E semicircle and 120 nm in the W semicircle. A turn toward the north and north-northeast at a faster forward speed is anticipated over the weekend. Kirk is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Small intensity fluctuations are possible today. Weakening is forecast to begin on Sat and continue through early next week. Swells generated by Kirk are spreading westward and are expected to reach the Leeward Islands later today, Bermuda and the Greater Antilles on Sat, the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, and the Bahamas on Sun, and the Azores on Mon. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.

Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 9.8N 32.5W at 04/0900 UTC or 560 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands, moving W at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 17 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring within 300 nm in the SE semicircle of Leslie, with similar convection within 180 nm in the NW semicircle. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, followed by a turn toward the northwest and an increase in forward speed early Sun into Mon. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Leslie is expected to become a hurricane by Sat.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

Tropical Waves

There are no tropical waves across the Atlantic Basin at this time.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and extends southwestward to 12N26.5W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 300 nm SE of the monsoon trough E of 22W. Similar convection is found from 07N to 09N between 43W and 48W, and from 09N to 11N between 48W and 53W.

Gulf Of Mexico

A trough of low pressure lingers in the NW Gulf from offshore SW Louisiana near 29N93W to a broad 1009 mb low pressure area in the W-central Gulf near 22.5N96W to the western Bay of Campeche near 18.5N94.5W. Scattered shower sand thunderstorms are within roughly 300 nm E of the trough and low, as well as within 120 nm of the low center and S of 20N. Fresh to strong NW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are within 60 nm offshore Veracruz Mexico. Mainly moderate winds are found elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the NE and N-central Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft across the remainder of the Gulf waters.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse offshore Veracruz Mexico through at least Sat. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located over the western Gulf of Mexico are associated with a trough of low pres. A broad area of low pres is expected to form over the SW or south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend, and thereafter some gradual development is possible while the low moves slowly eastward or northeastward. A tropical or subtropical depression or storm could form during the early to middle part of next week if the low remains separate from a frontal boundary that is forecast to extend across the Gulf of Mexico next week. Regardless of tropical or subtropical development, increasing winds and building seas are forecast including behind the frontal boundary with thunderstorms increasing in activity and potentially impacting most of the basin.

Caribbean Sea

An upper-level low combined with a surface trough over the Caribbean coast of the Yucatan Peninsula are producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from just offshore eastern Cuba to across the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh winds are N of 15N and W of 78W, with mainly gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the area of moderate to fresh winds and mainly 3 ft or less elsewhere.

For the forecast, numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW Caribbean from near western Cuba to across the Gulf of Honduras will persist through today before shifting N into the south- central Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Frequent lighting and strong gusty winds producing rough seas may accompany this activity. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to occasionally moderate winds across the basin into early next week. Northeast to east long period swell generated by Major Hurricane Kirk that is currently over the central Atlantic well ENE of the northern Leeward Islands may reach the northern portion of the Tropical N Atlantic waters and portions of the Leeward Islands on later today.

Atlantic Ocean

Please refer to the Special Features section on Hurricane Kirk and Tropical Storm Leslie.

Away from Kirk and Leslie, a cold front extends from a gale force low pres N of the area through 31N59W to 28N65W. Moderate to fresh winds are behind the front while associated seas of 8 to 12 ft are found N of 27N between 56W and 68W. Some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring within 120 nm ahead of the front N of 29N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere, except fresh to strong between the coast of Africa and the Canary Islands and in the islands passages. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in the fresh to strong wind areas and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere away from Kirk and Leslie.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extends from low pres N of the area through 31N59W to 28N65W with moderate to fresh winds behind it and associated seas of 8 to 12 ft N of 27N between 56W and 68W. The low will linger while the front becomes a trough into the weekend. Meanwhile Major Hurricane Kirk well ESE of the offshore zones will move NW during the next few days, passing to the E of the NE forecast waters tonight through Sat night. Rough to very rough seas are expected during the upcoming weekend over most of the waters ENE of the Bahamas. In addition, swells generated from Kirk are expected to reach vicinity of Bermuda during the weekend. Topical Storm Leslie over the far eastern Atlantic is forecast to strengthen into a hurricane and pass E of the offshore waters starting Tue night. A cold front and elongated area of low pres may impact the waters W of 70W starting Tue.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Lewitsky