Projection and prediction articles from across Nature Portfolio

For almost 30 years, an insect fungal disease has repressed defoliation caused by the spongy moth in North American hardwood forests. The fungus needs cool, moist weather, but computer models project that the effects of climate change will prevent the fungus from killing spongy moths, which could lead to a resurgence of this devastating forest pest.

Climate change research and policy rely on emissions scenarios to project future warming and its impacts. Now, a study highlights both progress and challenges to keeping key socioeconomic scenario assumptions up to date for the IPCC.

Arctic warming will decrease sea ice cover and increase the possibility of intensified marine heatwaves. Using a high-resolution model, the authors show that this intensification, combined with strengthened short-term temperature variability and enhanced stratification, could threaten the ecosystem.

This study proposes a physical-statistical model that significantly improves seasonal predictions of the spatiotemporal evolution of East-Asian rainfall anomalies, outperforming current state-of-the-art dynamical models in forecasting climate disasters.

Using a high-resolution model forced under a high emission scenario, the authors find an increase in subsurface marine heatwaves, and in concurrent surface and subsurface marine heatwaves, which can restrict refuge options of marine organisms.

For almost 30 years, an insect fungal disease has repressed defoliation caused by the spongy moth in North American hardwood forests. The fungus needs cool, moist weather, but computer models project that the effects of climate change will prevent the fungus from killing spongy moths, which could lead to a resurgence of this devastating forest pest.

Climate change research and policy rely on emissions scenarios to project future warming and its impacts. Now, a study highlights both progress and challenges to keeping key socioeconomic scenario assumptions up to date for the IPCC.

Technological advances alone will be insufficient to mitigate the global environmental footprint by 2050. This study introduces an integrative model that considers demographic trends, technological developments and behavioural changes and examines their potential contributions to future carbon, land and water footprints using Israel as a case study. The results are relevant for both Israel and the rest of the world.