Search Results (314)

Surface PM_2.5 concentrations have significant implications for human health, necessitating accurate estimations. This study compares various machine learning models, including linear models, tree-based algorithms, and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for estimating PM_2.5 concentrations using the MERRA-2 dataset from 2012 to 2023. Mutual information and Spearman cross-feature correlation scores are used during feature selections. The performance of models is evaluated using metrics including normalized Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NNSE), root mean standard deviation ratio (RSR), and mean percentage error (MPE). Our results show that ANNs outperform linear and tree models, particularly in estimating daily PM_2.5 concentrations of 35–1000 µg/m³. ANNs improve NNSE by 119% and 46%, RSR by 40% and 24%, and MPE by 44% and 30% from linear and tree models, respectively, indicating ANN’s superior estimation performance during high pollution days. The sensitivity analysis of features that interpret the models suggests that the total extinction AOD at 550 nm and surface CO concentrations are the most important features in the Western and Eastern U.S., respectively. The findings suggest that even the simplest NNs provide better air quality estimates, especially during high pollution events, which is beneficial for long-term exposure analysis. Future research should explore more sophisticated NN architectures with spatial and temporal variations in PM_2.5 to improve the model performance. Full article

Precipitation is a fundamental component of the hydrologic cycle and is an extremely important variable in meteorological, climatological, and hydrological studies. Reliable climate information including accurate precipitation data is essential for identifying precipitation trends and variability as well as applying hydrologic models for purposes such as estimating (surface) water availability and predicting flooding. In this study, I compared precipitation rates from five reanalysis datasets and one analysis dataset—the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis Version 5 (ERA-5), the Japanese 55-Year Reanalysis (JRA-55), the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), the National Center for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research Reanalysis 1 (NCEP/NCAR R1), the NCEP/Department of Energy Reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE R2), and the NCEP/Climate Forecast System Version 2 (NCEP/CFSv2)—with the merged satellite and rain gauge dataset from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project in Version 2.3 (GPCPv2.3). The latter was taken as a reference due to its global availability including the oceans. Monthly mean precipitation rates of the most recent five-year period from 2019 to 2023 were chosen for this comparison, which included calculating differences, percentage errors, Spearman correlation coefficients, and root mean square errors (RMSEs). ERA-5 showed the highest agreement with the reference dataset with the lowest mean and maximum percentage errors, the highest mean correlation, and the smallest mean RMSE. The highest mean and maximum percentage errors as well as the lowest correlations were observed between NCEP/NCAR R1 and GPCPv2.3. NCEP/DOE R2 showed significantly higher precipitation rates than the reference dataset (only JRA-55 precipitation rates were higher), the second lowest correlations, and the highest mean RMSE. Full article

Precipitation plays a key control in the water, energy, and carbon cycles, and it is also an important driving force for land surface modeling. This study provides an optimal least squares merging approach to merge precipitation data sets from multiple sources for an accurate daily precipitation estimate in Northeast China (NEC). Precipitation estimates from satellite-based IMERG and SM2RAIN-ASCAT, as well as reanalysis data from MERRA-2, were used in this study. The triple collocation (TC) approach was used to quantify the error uncertainties in each input data set, which are associated with the weights assigned to each data set in the merging procedure. The results revealed that IMERG provides a better consistency with the other two input data sets and thus was more relied on during the merging process. The accuracy of both SM2RAIN-ASCAT and MERRA-2 showed obvious spatio-temporal patterns due to their retrieval algorithms and resolution limits. The merged TC-based daily precipitation provides the highest correlation coefficient with ground-based measurements (R = 0.52), suggesting its capability to represent the temporal variation in daily precipitation. However, it largely overestimated the precipitation intensity in the summer, leading to a large positive bias. Full article

The anthropogenic impact on the ozone layer is expressed in anomalies in the total ozone content (TOC) on a global scale, with periodic enhancements observed in high-latitude areas. In addition, there are significant variations in TOC time trends at different latitudes and seasons. The reliability of the TOC future trends projections using climate chemistry models must be constantly monitored and improved, exploiting comparisons against available measurements. In this study, the ability of the Earth’s system model SOCOLv4.0 to predict TOC is evaluated by using more than 40 years of satellite measurements and meteorological reanalysis data. In general, the model overpredicts TOC in the Northern Hemisphere (by up to 16 DU) and significantly underpredicts it in the South Pole region (by up to 28 DU). The worst agreement was found in both polar regions, while the best was in the tropics (the mean difference constitutes 4.2 DU). The correlation between monthly means is in the range of 0.75–0.92. The SOCOLv4 model significantly overestimates air temperature above 1 hPa relative to MERRA2 and ERA5 reanalysis (by 10–20 K), particularly during polar nights, which may be one of the reasons for the inaccuracies in the simulation of polar ozone anomalies by the model. It is proposed that the SOCOLv4 model can be used for future projections of TOC under the changing scenarios of human activities. Full article

The impact of the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) and Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) on the dynamics of major sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs) observed in the winters of 2018, 2019, and 2021 is investigated. Using data from the MERRA-2 reanalysis, we analyze the daily mean variability of critical atmospheric parameters at the 10 hPa level, including zonal mean polar cap temperature, zonal mean zonal wind, and the amplitudes of planetary waves 1 and 2. The results reveal dramatic increases in polar cap temperature and significant wind reversals during the SSW events, particularly in 2018. The analysis of planetary wave (PW) amplitudes demonstrates intensified wave activity coinciding with the onset of SSWs, underscoring the pivotal role of PWs in these stratospheric disruptions. Further examination of outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) anomalies highlights the influence of QBO phases on tropical convection patterns. During westerly QBO (w-QBO) phases, enhanced convective activity is observed in the western Pacific, whereas the easterly QBO (e-QBO) phase shifts convection patterns to the maritime continent and central Pacific. This modulation by QBO phases influences the MJO’s role during SSWs, affecting tropical and extra-tropical weather patterns. The day-altitude variability of upward heat flux reveals distinct spatiotemporal patterns, with pronounced warming in the polar regions and mixed heat flux patterns in low latitudes. The differences observed between the SSWs of 2017–2018 and 2018–2019 are likely related to the varying QBO phases, emphasizing the complexity of heat flux dynamics during these events. The northern annular mode (NAM) index analysis shows varied responses to SSWs, with stronger negative anomalies observed during the e-QBO phase compared to the w-QBO phases. This variability highlights the significant role of the QBO in shaping the stratospheric and tropospheric responses to SSWs, impacting surface weather patterns and the persistence of stratospheric anomalies. Overall, the study demonstrates the intricate interactions between stratospheric dynamics, QBO, and MJO during major SSW events, providing insights into the broader implications of these atmospheric phenomena on global weather patterns. Full article

Aerosol chemical components are critical parameters that influence the atmospheric environment, climate effects, and human health. Retrieving global columnar atmospheric aerosol components from satellite observations provides foundational data and practical value. This study develops a method for retrieving aerosol component composition from polarized satellite data by synergizing a chemical transport model with ground-based remote sensing data. The method enables the rapid acquisition of columnar mass concentrations for seven aerosol components on a global scale, including black carbon (BC), brown carbon (BrC), organic carbon (OC), ammonium sulfate (AS), aerosol water (AW), dust (DU), and sea salt (SS). We first establish a remote sensing model based on the multiple solution mixing mechanism (MSM²) to obtain aerosol chemical components using AERONET ground-based measurements. We then employ a cross-layer adaptive fusion (CAF)-Transformer model to learn the spatial distribution characteristics of aerosol components from the MERRA-2 model. Furthermore, we optimize the retrieval model by transfer learning from the ground-based composition data to achieve satellite remote sensing of aerosol components. Residual analysis indicates that the retrieval model exhibits robust generalization capabilities for components such as BC, OC, AS, and DU, achieving a coefficient of determination of 0.7. Moreover, transfer learning effectively enhances the consistency between satellite retrievals and ground-based remote sensing results, with an average improvement of 0.23 in the correlation coefficient. We present annual and seasonal means of global distributions of the retrieved aerosol component concentrations, with a major focus on the spatial and temporal variations of BC and DU. Additionally, we analyze three typical atmospheric environmental cases, wildfire, dust storm, and particulate pollution, by comparing our retrievals with model data and other datasets. This demonstrates the ability of satellite remote sensing to identify the location, intensity, and impact range of environmental pollution events. Satellite-retrieved aerosol component data offers high spatial resolution and efficiency, particularly providing significant advantages for near-real-time monitoring of regional atmospheric environmental events. Full article

The development of high-precision, long-term, hourly-scale precipitation data is essential for understanding extreme precipitation events. Reanalysis systems are particularly promising for this type of research due to their long-term observations and wide spatial coverage. This study aims to construct a more robust precipitation dataset by integrating three widely-used reanalysis precipitation estimates: Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA2), Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Reanalysis v5 (ERA5). A novel integration method based on the generalized three-cornered hat (TCH) approach is employed to quantify uncertainties in these products. To enhance accuracy, the high-density daily precipitation data from the Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observation Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE) dataset is used for correction. Results show that the TCH method effectively identifies seasonal and spatial uncertainties across the products. The TCH-weighted product (TW), calculated using signal-to-noise ratio weighting, outperforms the original reanalysis datasets across various watersheds and seasons. After correction with APHRODITE data, the enhanced integrated product (ATW) significantly improves accuracy, making it more suitable for extreme precipitation event analysis. Quantile mapping was applied to assess the ability of TW and ATW to represent extreme precipitation. Both products showed improved accuracy in regional average precipitation, with ATW demonstrating superior improvement. This integration method provides a robust approach for refining reanalysis precipitation datasets, contributing to more reliable hydrological and climate studies. Full article

Soil moisture is critical in the linkage between the land and atmosphere of energy and water exchange, especially over the Tibetan Plateau (TP). However, due to the lack of in situ plateau soil moisture measurements, the reanalyzed and assimilated data are the major supplements for TP climate research. Based on observations from 1992 to 2013, this study provides a comprehensive evaluation of three sets of assimilation and reanalysis products (GLDAS, ERA5-Land, and MERRA-2) on the climatic mean and variability of soil moisture over the Tibetan Plateau (TPSM). For the climatic mean, GLDAS captures the spatial distribution and annual cycle of TPSM better than other datasets in terms of lower spatial RMSE (0.07 m3×m-3) and bias (0.06 m3×m-3). In terms of the climatic variability of TPSM, the multi-data average (MDA) highlights its advantages in reducing the bias relative to any single data product. MDA describes the TPSM anomalies more stably and accurately in terms of temporal trend and variation (r = 0.94), as well as the dipole spatial pattern in EOF1. When considering both the climatic mean and spatial variability, the performance of MDA is more accurate and balanced than that of a single data product. This study overcomes the deficiency of limited time and space in previous evaluations of TPSM and indicates that multi-data averaging may be a more effective approach in the climate investigation of TPSM. Full article

In this study, we analysed lithospheric, atmospheric, and top-side ionospheric magnetic field data six months before the three earthquake doublets occurred in the last ten years around the Arabian tectonic plate. They occurred in 2014, close to Dehloran (Iran), in 2018, offshore Kilmia (Yemen) and in 2022, close to Bandar-e Lengeh (Iran). For all the cases, we considered the equivalent event in terms of total released energy and mean epicentral coordinates. The lithosphere was investigated by calculating the cumulative Benioff strain with the USGS earthquake catalogue. Several atmospheric parameters (aerosol, SO₂, CO, surface air temperature, surface latent heat flux humidity, and dimethyl sulphide) have been monitored using the homogeneous data from the MERRA-2 climatological archive. We used the three-satellite Swarm constellation for magnetic data, analysing the residuals after removing a geomagnetic model. The analysis of the three geo-layers depicted an interesting chain of lithosphere, atmosphere, and ionosphere anomalies, suggesting a geophysical coupling before the Dehloran (Iran) 2014 earthquake. In addition, we identified interesting seismic accelerations that preceded the last 20 days, the Kilmia (Yemen) 2018 and Bandar-e Lengeh (Iran) 2022 earthquake doublets. Other possible interactions between the geolayers have been observed, and this underlines the importance of a multiparametric approach to properly understand a geophysical complex topic as the preparation phase of an earthquake. Full article

In this paper, we use ozone mixing ratio data from the MERRA-2, ERA-5 and JRA-55 reanalyses from 500 hPa to 1 hPa in the period 1980–2020 with the aim of assessing their suitability for trend analysis. We found that these data are not suitable for trend studies due to huge differences in trend values and large differences in the variance of the ozone mixing ratio between reanalyses, and due to strong discrepancies between the ozone mixing ratio from reanalyses and that from the reliable ozonesonde at Hohenpeissenberg. These large differences can be caused by satellite replacement or by the assimilation of imperfect homogeneous data. Full article

To evaluate the contributions of different forcings to the temperature and atmospheric composition changes between 1980 and 2020, we exploited the chemistry-climate model (CCM) SOCOLv3. The study examined ozone content and atmospheric temperature response to (1) ozone-depleting substances; (2) greenhouse gas concentrations, ocean surface temperature, and sea ice coverage; (3) solar irradiance; and (4) stratospheric aerosol loading and, separately, (5) greenhouse gas concentrations, (6) ocean surface temperature and sea ice coverage, and (7) NO_x surface emissions. To evaluate the impacts of specific factors, we performed model runs driven by each factor (1–7) variability as well as a reference experiment that accounted for the influence of all factors simultaneously. We identified the relative contribution of different factors to the evolution of the temperature and ozone content of the lower troposphere and stratosphere from 1980 to 2020. The model results were in good agreement with the reanalyses (MERRA2 and ERA5). We showed that stratospheric ozone depletion before the Montreal Protocol introduction and partial recovery after that were chiefly driven by ODS. Stratospheric aerosol from major volcanic eruptions caused only short-term (up to 5 years) ozone decline. Increased greenhouse gas emissions dominate the ongoing long-term stratospheric cooling as well as tropospheric and surface warming. Solar irradiance contributed to short-term fluctuations but had a minimal long-term impact. Furthermore, our analysis of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere underscores the complex interplay of solar radiation with volcanic, oceanic, and atmospheric factors, revealing significant altitudinal distributions of temperature and ozone responses to solar activity. Our findings advocate further innovative methodologies to take into account the nonlinearity of the atmospheric processes. Full article

Boundary-layer jets (BLJs) in the South China Sea play an important role in heavy rainfall in South China, yet observations in maritime locations are still limited. This study examines the vertical structures and temporal evolutions of BLJs in the northern South China Sea using intensive radiosonde observations from a research vessel from 15 to 18 June 2022 and evaluates the performance of various reanalysis datasets in capturing these features. Observations identified BLJs with jet cores at altitudes of approximately 500–700 m. Wind speeds slightly decreased from 15 to 16 June and then significantly increased after 17 June, showing double peaks on 17 June below 1 km at altitudes of 250 and 700 m. Among the reanalysis datasets, ERA5 exhibited more accurate results on average, followed by MERRA2, both of which outperformed JRA55 and FNL. ERA5 and MERRA2 had mixed performances in depicting BLJ characteristics. ERA5 accurately captured the initial decrease in wind speeds and their subsequent enhancement, while MERRA2 initially faltered but improved later. On the diurnal scale, neither MERRA2 nor ERA5 accurately represented the wind speed peaks observed at 2300 and 1100 LST, whereas ERA5 roughly reflected the nocturnal acceleration of the BLJs. During the observation period, the intensification of BLJs in the northern SCS, influenced by an eastward-moving high-pressure system and a southward-moving low-pressure vortex, led to enhanced precipitation in South China that gradually moved northward from the coastline to inland regions. This study provides new insights into the detailed characteristics of marine BLJs based on direct observations. Full article

Black carbon (BC) aerosols have attracted wide attention over the world due to their significant climate effects on local and global scales. BC extinction aerosol optical thickness (AOT), scattering AOT, and single scattering albedo (SSA) over China are systematically studied based on the MERRA-2 satellite reanalysis data from 1983 to 2022 in terms of the spatial, yearly, seasonal, and monthly variations. The extinction and scattering AOTs of BC show similar spatial distribution, with high values in eastern and southern China, generally as opposed to BC SSA. A decrease in BC extinction and scattering AOTs has been documented over the last decade. The mean BC extinction AOT, scattering AOT, and SSA over China are 0.0054, 0.0014, and 0.26, respectively. The BC SSA showed small variations during 1983–2022, although a high BC extinction AOT and scattering AOT have been seen in the last two decades. During different decades, the seasonal patterns of BC extinction and scattering AOTs may differ, whereas the BC SSA shows seasonal consistency. Significant monthly variations in the BC SSA are seen over four decades, which are in agreement with their seasonal patterns. The mean BC extinction AOTs are 0.037, 0.033, 0.023, and 0.0054, whereas the average BC scattering AOTs are 0.0088, 0.0082, 0.0060, and 0.0014 in the Pearl River Delta (PRD), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) region, and Tarim Basin (TB), respectively. It is interesting to see that BC SSA values in the TB region are generally higher than those over the PRD, YRD and BTH areas, whereas the reverse is true for BC extinction and scattering AOTs. This study provides references for further research on black carbon aerosols and air pollution in China. Full article

As urbanization and industrial activities accelerate globally, air quality has become a pressing concern, particularly due to the harmful effects of particulate matter (PM), notably PM_2.5 and PM₁₀. This review paper presents a comprehensive systematic assessment of machine learning (ML) techniques for estimating PM concentrations, drawing on studies published from 2018 to 2024. Traditional statistical methods often fail to account for the complex dynamics of air pollution, leading to inaccurate predictions, especially during peak pollution events. In contrast, ML approaches have emerged as powerful tools that leverage large datasets to capture nonlinear, intricate relationships among various environmental, meteorological, and anthropogenic factors. This review synthesizes findings from 32 studies, demonstrating that ML techniques, particularly ensemble learning models, significantly enhance estimation accuracy. However, challenges remain, including data quality, the need for diverse and balanced datasets, issues related to feature selection, and spatial discontinuity. This paper identifies critical research gaps and proposes future directions to improve model robustness and applicability. By advancing the understanding of ML applications in air quality monitoring, this review seeks to contribute to developing effective strategies for mitigating air pollution and protecting public health. Full article

Ultraviolet solar radiation at the Earth’s surface significantly impacts both human health and ecosystems. A biologically effective daily radiant exposure (BEDRE) model is proposed for various biological processes with an analytical formula for its action spectrum. The following processes are considered: erythema formation, previtamin D3 synthesis, psoriasis clearance, and inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 virions. The BEDRE model is constructed by multiplying the synthetic BEDRE value under cloudless conditions by a cloud modification factor (CMF) parameterizing the attenuation of radiation via clouds. The CMF is an empirical function of the solar zenith angle (SZA) at midday and the daily clearness index from the Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI) measurements on board the second-generation Meteosat satellites. Total column ozone, from MERRA-2 reanalysis, is used in calculations of clear-sky BEDRE values. The proposed model was trained and validated using data from several European ground-based spectrophotometers and biometers for the periods 2014–2023 and 2004–2013, respectively. The model provides reliable estimates of BEDRE for all biological processes considered. Under snow-free conditions and SZA < 45° at midday, bias and standard deviation of observation-model differences are approximately ±5% and 15%, respectively. The BEDRE model can be used as an initial validation tool for ground-based UV data. Full article