Search Results (153)

Understanding how plants adapt to shifting water availability is imperative for predicting ecosystem vulnerability to drought. However, the spatial–temporal dynamics of the plant–water relationship remain uncertain. In this study, we employed the latest Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS) Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI4g), an updated version succeeding GIMMS NDVI3g spanning from 1982 to 2022. We integrated this dataset with the multiple scale Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI 1 to 24) to investigate the spatial–temporal variability of sensitivity and lag in vegetation growth in response to water variability across China. Our findings indicate that over 83% of China’s vegetation demonstrates positive sensitivity to water availability, with approximately 66% exhibiting a shorter response lag (lag < 1 month). This relationship varies across aridity gradients and diverges among plant functional types. Over 66% of China’s vegetation displays increased sensitivity to water variability and 63% manifests a short response lag to water changes over the past 41 years. These outcomes significantly contribute to understanding vegetation dynamics in response to changing water conditions, implying a heightened susceptibility of vegetation to drought in a future warming world. Full article

In recent decades, vegetation phenology, as one of the most sensitive and easily observed features under climate change, has changed significantly under the influence of the global warming as a result of the green house effect. Vegetation phenological change is not only highly related to temperature change, but also to precipitation, a key factor affecting vegetation phenological change. However, the response of vegetation phenology to climate change is different in different regions, and the current research still does not fully understand the climate drivers that control phenological change. The study focuses on the Loess Plateau, utilizing the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset to extract vegetation phenology parameters from 1982 to 2015 and analyzing their spatial–temporal variations and responses to climate change. Furthermore, by incorporating emission scenarios of RCP4.5 (medium and low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission), the study predicts and analyzes the changes in vegetation phenology on the Loess Plateau from 2030 to 2100. The long-term dynamic response of vegetation phenology to climate change and extreme climate is explored, so as to provide a scientific basis for the sustainable development of the fragile Loess Plateau. The key findings are as follows: (1) From 1982 to 2015, the start of the growing season (SOS) on the Loess Plateau shows a non-significant delay (0.06 d/year, p > 0.05), while the end of the growing season (EOS) is significantly delayed at a rate of 0.1 d/year (p < 0.05). (2) In the southeastern part of the Loess Plateau, temperature increases led to a significant advancement of SOS. Conversely, in the Maowusu Desert in the northwest, increased autumn precipitation caused a significant delay in EOS. (3) From 2030 to 2100, under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, temperatures are projected to rise significantly at rates of 0.018 °C/year and 0.06 °C/year, respectively. Meanwhile, precipitation will either decrease insignificantly at −0.009 mm/year under RCP4.5 or increase significantly at 0.799 mm/year under RCP8.5. In this context, SOS is projected to advance by 19 days and 28 days, respectively, under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, with advancement rates of 0.049 days/year and 0.228 days/year. EOS is projected to be delayed by 14 days and 27 days (p < 0.05), respectively, with delay rates of 0.084 d/year and 0.2 d/year. Full article

The Tibetan Plateau has experienced profound climate change with significant implication for spatial vegetation greenness. However, the spatiotemporal disparities of long-term vegetation trends in response to observed climate change remain unclear. Based on remote-sensing vegetation images indicated by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) from two long-term combined datasets, GIMMS and MODIS, we identified two spatiotemporal evolution patterns (SEPs) in long-term vegetation anomalies across the Tibetan Plateau. This new perspective integrates spatial and temporal NDVI changes during the growing seasons over the past four decades. Notably, the dipole evolution pattern that rotates counterclockwise from May to September accounted for 62.8% of the spatial mean amplitude of vegetation trends, dominating the spatiotemporal disparities. This dominant pattern trend is attributed to simultaneous effects of spatial warming and rising CO₂, which accounted for 75% and 15%, respectively, along with a lagged effect of dipole precipitation, accounting for 6%. Overall, wetting and warming promote greening evolution in the northern Tibetan Plateau, while slight drying and warming favor browning evolution in the southern Tibetan Plateau. These findings provide insights into the combined effects of climate change on spatiotemporal vegetation trends and inform future adaptive strategies in fragile regions. Full article

This study analyzes the temporal patterns of rainfed cereal phenology extracted from the GIMMS NDVI3g dataset in the main cereal-growing regions under a Mediterranean climate in Spain, Portugal, France and Italy during the period 1982–2022. The series before and after the beginning of the 21st century were analyzed separately. Phenological parameters were extracted using the modified dynamic threshold method, and their trends were analyzed. Correlation analyses were performed to study the relationships among these parameters and to analyze the influence of hydroclimatic variables on the start (SOS) and end (EOS) of the growing season. Results showed a temporal reversal in phenological trends between both study periods, coinciding with the global warming hiatus. In the first period (1982–2002), SOS and EOS advanced (−7.5 and −3.1 days, respectively), and the length of growing season (LOS) increased. However, during the second stage (2003–2022), SOS and EOS were delayed (7.5 and 1.7 days, respectively), and LOS decreased. Similar dynamics were observed for the influence of the hydroclimatic variables on SOS and EOS, stronger in the first period and weaker in the second. This study provides valuable information on the phenological dynamics of rainfed cereals that may be useful for their management and planning in climate change scenarios. Full article

Exploring the evolution of vegetation cover and its drivers in the Ferghana Basin helps to understand the current ecological status of the Ferghana Basin and to analyze the vegetation changes and drivers, with a view to providing a scientific basis for regional ecological and environmental management and planning. Based on GIMMS NDVI3g and meteorological data, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of NDVI were analyzed from multiple perspectives with the help of linear trend and Mann–Kendall (MK) test methods using arcgis and the R language spatial analysis module, combined with partial correlation coefficients and residual analysis methods to analyze the impacts of climate change and human activities on the regional vegetation cover of the Ferghana Basin from 1982 to 2015. NDVI driving forces. The results showed the following: (1) The growing season of vegetation NDVI in the Ferghana Basin showed an increasing trend in the 34-year period, with an increase rate of 0.0044/10a, and the spatial distribution was significantly different, which was high in the central part of the country and low in the northern and southern parts of the country. (2) Temperature and precipitation simultaneously co-influenced the vegetation NDVI growth season, with most of the temperature and precipitation contributing in the spring, most of the temperature in the summer being negatively phased and the precipitation positively correlated, and most of the temperature and precipitation in the fall inhibiting vegetation NDVI growth. (3) The combined effect of climate change and human activities was the main reason for the overall rapid increase and great spatial variations in vegetation NDVI in China, and the spatial distribution of drivers, namely human activities and climate change, contributed 44.6% to vegetation NDVI in the growing season. The contribution of climate change and human activities to vegetation NDVI in the Ferghana Basin was 62.32% and 93.29%, respectively. The study suggests that more attention should be paid to the role of human activities and climate change in vegetation restoration to inform ecosystem management and green development. Full article

The genome-scale metabolic model (GSMM) of Cordyceps militaris provides a comprehensive basis of carbon assimilation for cell growth and metabolite production. However, the model with a simple mass balance concept shows limited capability to probe the metabolic responses of C. militaris under light exposure. This study, therefore, employed the transcriptome-integrated GSMM approach to extend the investigation of C. militaris’s metabolism under light conditions. Through the gene inactivity moderated by metabolism and expression (GIMME) framework, the iPS1474-tiGSMM model was furnished with the transcriptome data, thus providing a simulation that described reasonably well the metabolic responses underlying the phenotypic observation of C. militaris under the particular light conditions. The iPS1474-tiGSMM obviously showed an improved prediction of metabolic fluxes in correlation with the expressed genes involved in the cordycepin and carotenoid biosynthetic pathways under the sucrose culturing conditions. Further analysis of reporter metabolites suggested that the central carbon, purine, and fatty acid metabolisms towards carotenoid biosynthesis were the predominant metabolic processes responsible in light conditions. This finding highlights the key responsive processes enabling the acclimatization of C. militaris metabolism in varying light conditions. This study provides a valuable perspective on manipulating metabolic genes and fluxes towards the target metabolite production of C. militaris. Full article

Combining tree ring data with remote sensing data can help to gain a deeper understanding of the driving factors that influence vegetation change, identify climate events that lead to vegetation change, and improve the parameters of global vegetation index reconstruction models. However, it is currently not well understood how climate change at different elevations in the central Tianshan Mountains affects radial tree growth and the dynamics of forest canopy growth. We selected Schrenk spruce (Picea schrenkiana) tree core samples from different elevations in the central Tianshan Mountains. We analyzed the relationships of various tree-ring parameters, including tree-ring width, maximum latewood density (MXD), and minimum earlywood density (MID) chronologies, with 1982–2012 GIMMS (Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies) NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), 2001–2012 MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) NDVI, and meteorological data. (1) There were strong correlations between tree-ring width chronologies and the lowest temperatures, especially in July. Tree-ring width chronologies at higher altitudes were positively correlated with temperature; the opposite pattern was observed at lower altitudes. MID chronologies were positively correlated with July temperature in high-altitude areas and mean temperature and highest temperature from May to September in low-altitude areas, and negatively correlated with precipitation during this period. MXD chronologies were mainly negatively correlated with precipitation. MXD chronologies were mainly positively correlated with temperature in April and May. (2) The correlations between MXD chronologies at each sampling point and NDVI in each month of the growing season were strong. Both MID and MXD chronologies were negatively correlated with GIMMS NDVI in July. The overall correlations between tree-ring parameters and MODIS NDVI were stronger than the correlations between tree-ring parameters and GIMMS NDVI in high-altitude areas; the opposite pattern was observed in low-altitude areas. Drought stress may be the main factor affecting tree ring parameters and NDVI. In the future, we should combine tree ring parameters with vegetation index to investigate a larger scale of forests. Full article

In this study, a machine learning model was used to investigate the potential consequences of climate change on vegetation growth. The methodology involved analyzing the historical Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data and future climate projections under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Data from the Global Inventory Monitoring and Modeling System (GIMMS) dataset for the period 1981–2000 were used to train the machine learning model, while CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6) global climate projections from 2021–2100 were employed to predict future NDVI values under different SSPs. The study results revealed that the global mean NDVI is projected to experience a significant increase from the period 1981–2000 to the period 2021–2040. Following this, the mean NDVI slightly increases under SSP126 and SSP245 while decreasing substantially under SSP370 and SSP585. In the near-term span of 2021–2040, the average NDVI value of SSP585 slightly exceeds that of SSP245 and SSP370, suggesting a positive vegetation development in response to a more pronounced temperature increase in the near term. However, if the trajectory of SSP585 persists, the mean NDVI will commence a decline over the subsequent three periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2080–2100) with a faster speed than that of SSP370. This decline is attributed to the adverse effects of a rapid temperature rise on vegetation. Based on the examination of individual continents, it is projected that the NDVI values in Africa, South America, and Oceania will decline over time, except under the scenario SSP126 during 2081–2100. On the other hand, the NDVI values in North America and Europe are anticipated to increase, with the exception of the scenario SSP585 during 2081–2100. Additionally, Asia is expected to follow an increasing trend, except under the scenario SSP126 during 2081–2100. In the larger scope, our research findings carry substantial implications for biodiversity preservation, greenhouse gas emission reduction, and efficient environmental management. The utilization of machine learning technology holds the potential to accurately predict future changes in vegetation growth and pinpoint areas where intervention is imperative. Full article

Phenology is an important indicator for how plants will respond to environmental changes and is closely related to biomass production. Due to global warming and the emergence of intermittent warming, vegetation in northeast Asia is undergoing drastic changes. Understanding vegetation phenology and its response to climate change is of great significance to understanding the changes in the sustainable development of ecosystems. Based on Global Inventory Modelling and Mapping Studies (GIMMS), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)3g data, and the mean value of phenological results extracted by five methods, combined with climatic data, this study analyzed the temporal changes in phenology and the responses to climatic factors of five vegetation types of broad-leaved, needle-leaf, mixed forests, grassland, and cultivated land in northeast Asia over 33 years (1982–2014). The results showed that, during the intermittent warming period (1999–2014), the start of the growing season (SOS) advancement (Julian days) trend of all vegetation types decreased. During 1982–2014, the average temperature sensitivity of the SOS was 1.5 d/°C. The correlation between the SOS and the pre-season temperature is significant in northeast Asia, while the correlation between the EOS and the pre-season precipitation is greater than that between temperature and radiation. The impact of radiation changes on the SOS is relatively small. Full article

Recent research has revealed that the dynamics of autumn phenology play a decisive role in the inter-annual changes in the carbon cycle. However, to date, the shifts in autumn phenology (EGS) and the elements that govern it have not garnered unanimous acknowledgment. This paper focuses on the Yellow River Basin (YRB) ecosystem and systematically analyzes the dynamic characteristics of EGS and its multiple controls across the entire region and biomes from 1982 to 2015 based on the long-term GIMMS NDVI3g dataset. The results demonstrated that a trend toward a significant delay in EGS (p < 0.05) was detected and this delay was consistently observed across all biomes. By using the geographical detector model, the association between EGS and several main driving factors was quantified. The spring phenology (SGS) had the largest explanatory power among the interannual variations of EGS across the YRB, followed by preseason temperature. For different vegetation types, SGS and preseason precipitation were the dominant driving factors for the EGS in woody plants and grasslands, respectively, whereas the explanatory power for each driving factor on cultivated land was very weak. Furthermore, the EGS was controlled by drought at different timescales and the dominant timescales were concentrated in 1–3 accumulated months. Grasslands were more significantly influenced by drought than woody plants at the biome level. These findings validate the significance of SGS on the EGS in the YRB as well as highlight that both drought and SGS should be considered in autumn fall phenology models for improving the prediction accuracy under future climate change scenarios. Full article

Vegetation, especially forest ecosystems, plays an important role in the global energy flow and material cycle. The vegetation index (VI) is an important index reflecting the dynamic change in vegetation and directly reflects the response of ecosystem to global climate change. The Greater Khingan Mountains Forest region is located in the northeast of China. It is the largest primeval forest region in China, which is well preserved and less affected by human activities. It is of great significance to study the driving mechanism of forest vegetation change for future ecological prediction and management. In this study, GIMMS NDVI data were used to explore the characteristics of nonlinear temporal and spatial variation of NDVI in the Greater Khingan Mountains and its relationship with climatic factors. Firstly, the EEMD method was used to analyze the characteristics of vegetation change in the study area from 1982 to 2015. Secondly, the relationship between vegetation change and climate was discussed by using precipitation and temperature data. The results showed that the following: (1) from 1982 to 2015, the interannual change in vegetation in the Greater Khingan Mountains presented a trend of slow fluctuation and gradual decrease (SLOPE = −0.1645/10,000, p < 0.01). (2) The spatial distribution of vegetation change had obvious geographical differences, and in the central region, the overall distribution characteristics had an obvious browning trend, and in the northwest and southeast, the distribution characteristics had a green trend. (3) The correlation analysis results of vegetation change and climate factors showed that NDVI change was significantly positively correlated with temperature and precipitation; additionally, NDVI change was more correlated with temperature with a range of 0.8–1 than precipitation. (4) The results of vegetation attribution analysis in four typical areas of the study area showed that the following: the coniferous forest area has good cold tolerance and drought tolerance, the correlation between vegetation change and climate factors (temperature, precipitation) was not the strongest, which was 0.537 and 0.828, respectively. The ecological transition area and the broad-leaved forest area, which was located at the edge of the study area, have relatively fragile ecosystems, showed a strong correlation with precipitation, and the correlation coefficients reached 0.670 and 0.632, respectively. The surface water resources provide favorable conditions for the growth of vegetation, it showed a weak correlation with precipitation, and the correlation coefficient was 0.5349. Full article

The advent of a range of high-precision NPP products, including MODIS NPP, MOD17 NPP, and GIMMS NPP, has sparked growing interest in the study of Earth’s ecosystems. In order to enhance comprehension of ecosystem health, in order to facilitate the development of rational resource management and environmental conservation policies, this investigation employs the MOD17A3 dataset to analyze historical variations in Net Primary Productivity (NPP) within Shanxi Province from 2001 to 2020, while also exploring future trends. The Theil–Sen median trend analysis and Mann–Kendall test are commonly used methods for analyzing time series data, employed to study the spatiotemporal trends and variations in NPP. The Grey Wolf Optimization–Support Vector Machine (GWO–SVM) model combines optimization algorithms and machine learning methods, enhancing the predictive capacity of the model for future NPP time series changes. Conversely, the Hurst exponent utilizes historical NPP trends to assess the persistence characteristics of NPP and predict future spatial variations in NPP. This study additionally investigates the natural driving factors of NPP using the Geographic Detector approach. The key findings of this study are as follows. (1) Overall, NPP in Shanxi Province exhibits a fluctuating upward trend from 2001 to 2020, with an average value of 206.278 gCm⁻²a⁻¹. Spatially, NPP exhibits a northwest–low and southeast–high pattern, with significant spatial heterogeneity and considerable variability. (2) The average Hurst exponent is 0.86, indicating a characteristic of strong persistence in growth in future NPP. Regions with strong or higher persistent growth account for 95.54% of the total area. (3) According to the CMIP6 climate scenarios, NPP is projected to gradually increase from 2025 to 2030. (4) The interactive effects between natural factors contribute more to NPP variations than individual factors, with the rainfall–elevation interaction having the highest contribution percentage. Full article

The Loess Plateau is ecologically vulnerable. Vegetation is the key factor in ecological improvement. The study of the distribution patterns of vegetation and its impact factors has important guiding meaning for ecological construction in the region. The existing single sensor cannot provide long-term and high-resolution data. We established data of NDVI with a great spatial resolution by fusing the GIMMS NDVI and the MODIS NDVI based on the ESTARFM. Furthermore, we analyzed the variation in NDVI under different topographies and its response to climatic factors and human activities in the Loess Plateau. The results manifested that: (1) The fused NDVI by the ESTARFM had a high correlation with the MODIS NDVI and can be used in subsequent studies. (2) The multi-year average NDVI of this region ranged from 0.027 to 0.973, which is specifically low in the northwest and high southeast. The NDVI manifested an upward trend in the last 31 years. Its growth rate was 0.0036/a (p < 0.01). Spatially, the area with an upward trend of NDVI accounted for 89.48% of the plateau. (3) For topography, the larger area with the extremely significant upward of NDVI was found at elevations of 500–1500 m, with slopes of 6–15°. The larger area with the extremely significant downward trend of NDVI was found at an elevation of higher than 3000 m, with a slope of greater than 35°. (4) The response of the NDVI to the climatic factors manifested a significant spatial heterogeneity. The temperature had a more significant impact on NDVI than precipitation. (5) Human activities contributed more to NDVI than climatic factors (65.22% for human activities and 34.78% for climatic factors). Among them, the area with a high contribution of human activities to NDVI increase was consistent with the area where the GGP was implemented. The distribution of areas with high contribution of human activities to NDVI decrease was in line with that of the provincial capital cities. The results served as the theoretical foundation for assessing the efficacy of environmental stewardship and for optimizing ecological restoration measures. Full article

The vegetation–temperature relationship is crucial in understanding land–atmosphere interactions on the Tibetan Plateau. Although many studies have investigated the connections between vegetation and climate variables in this region using remote sensing technology, there remain notable gaps in our understanding of vegetation–temperature interactions over different timescales. Here, we combined site-level air temperature observations, information from the global inventory modeling and mapping studies (GIMMS) dataset, and moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of air temperature, vegetation, and land surface temperature (LST) on the Tibetan Plateau at annual and seasonal scales. We achieved these spatiotemporal patterns by using Sen’s slope, sequential Mann–Kendall tests, and partial correlation analysis. The timescale differences of vegetation-induced LST were subsequently discussed. Our results demonstrate that a breakpoint of air temperature change occurred on the Tibetan Plateau during 1994–1998, dividing the study period (1982–2013) into two phases. A more significant greening response of NDVI occurred in the spring and autumn with earlier breakpoints and a more sensitive NDVI response occurred in recent warming phase. Both MODIS and GIMMS data showed a common increase in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) on the Tibetan Plateau for all timescales, while the former had a larger greening area since 2000. The most prominent trends in NDVI and LST were identified in spring and autumn, respectively, and the largest areas of significant variation in NDVI and LST mostly occurred in winter and autumn, respectively. The partial correlation analysis revealed a significant negative impact of NDVI on LST during the annual scale and autumn, and it had a significant positive impact during spring. Our findings improve the general understanding of vegetation–climate relationships at annual and seasonal scales. Full article

The purposes of this study are to reveal the spatial pattern and dynamic changes of NDVI in the northern slope of the Tianshan Mountains for an extended period and to explore whether the spatial and temporal evolution of NDVI in different spatial scales is consistent so as to provide a reasonable theoretical basis for the selection of appropriate remote sensing spatial resolution in the study area. The GIMMS NDVI remote sensing data set was used to resample the NDVI data with three spatial resolutions of 0.5 km × 0.5 km, 1 km × 1 km, and 8 km × 8 km. The Mann-Kendall method was used to analyze the spatial-temporal evolution characteristics of vegetation NDVI on the NTSM from 1981 to 2015. The results showed that the interannual variation trend and spatial distribution of vegetation NDVI were consistent at different spatial scales. The change of NDVI displayed an increasing trend with changes concentrated in the middle of the NTSM. Five distinct trends were observed: no significant change (35% of the area), significant positive change (26%), significant single peak change (15%), a significant U-shaped change relationship (12%), and significant negative change (11%). Remote sensing NDVI data with a spatial resolution of 8 km could be used to analyze the long-term interannual variation trend of vegetation NDVI on the NTSM. Full article