Joshua Brown is tired of the media treating interest rate decisions as 'life or death' and the 'circus' surrounding the Federal Reserve meetings. The Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO joins Leading Indicator with J.D. Durkin to talk about why the Fed gets too much attention, why an 'AI air pocket' could be the biggest risk for markets, and what he thinks the biggest surprise of 2024 has been. Spotify: https://lnkd.in/eD8BjQJE YouTube: https://lnkd.in/ePN2eF2C
Did I say too much?
Totally agree. Howard Marks articulated it very eloquently in his memo "Easy Money" and Ken Griffin mentioned it in the podcast with Nicolai Tangen: "Would you have thought the US would be near full employment, facing >3% inflation, and being on a massive spending binge and applying massive, massive fiscal stimulus? Instead, try to pay down debt for the inevitable rainy day". Rate cuts are insane in current economic & market dynamic and Central Banks should retreat. Economic cycles are normal.
Home prices are continuing to rise currently regardless of what interest rates are doing, and you have to bid over a few percentage points to “win”.
We need intrest rates to go down so TSLA can go up. Don’t be so selfish
Well said Josh. The Fed people just need to be quiet and do their jobs. But obviously they love love love the attention. 👎👎
I think following the business cycle has merits but only for long term. The Fed is the only show in town. Just my two cents.
"Did you wake up on Mars or are you from there?" 😂
Let's not forget the so called experts in the media talking about interest rates are almost always wrong. Wasn't long ago most were calling for 6 cuts in 2024. Genius.
Investment Analyst at Tatton Investment Management | MSc Finance, UCL
3moI beg to differ. After the most aggressive & unprecedented hiking cycle by a western central bank in the last 20 years, why would market pundits & participants not have such a meticulous view on Fed Meetings/speak? Couple that with a the last decade of 'easy' money, i.e., limited Fed funds rate changes (barring 2016-2019) and hence low rates, naturally there is more of a spotlight on the Fed. The trajectory of the US Economy and therefore equity market is going one of two ways: 1) 'Boil the Frog': Fed keeps rates at these levels (or even hikes) for a while longer to curtail what would be stickier than expected inflation, and in doing so would induce a recession (how deep will depend on how long the Fed has to hold rates, and how tight/loose labour markets become), equity markets likely down. 2) Soft-Landing: Fed cuts into year end after (whatever they perceive as) favourable inflation data, = no US recession, start of new cycle, equity markets up. What is consistent across the two extremely disparate outcomes? The Fed's actions, and also how they 'speak' to get the market to do the work for them (financial conditions). I digress, but ultimately, does it now seem so surprising that we obsess over the Fed's actions? I think not.