The Labour government must succeed where the Tories – the party of home ownership – have failed

The latest data, derived from the last census and analysed by The Independent, reveals that not only is the rate of British home ownership edging down once again, but that this unwelcome trend is more pronounced in the Conservative seats Rishi Sunak’s party is trying to hold onto. In these constituencies, it has fallen by one-fifth over the past decade or so, eroding the traditional Tory electoral base and adding to the party’s many challenges.

This data highlights once again how the dream of home ownership has slipped, seemingly forever, from the grasp of younger citizens. There has long been a crisis in social housing, homelessness is a continual scourge, and the cost of renting a home is pushing many away from places where there are jobs, but for the present government the most potent of the challenges is the inexorable decline in the numbers of owner-occupiers.

Each and every disappointed would-be homeowner represents a long-term erosion in the electoral base of the Tory party. We are about to witness just how existential that will be.

Dismal as the Conservatives’ current poll ratings may be, some of the underlying details suggest that the impending election disaster may be the first in a series of steps on the road to extinction. The latest data on voting intention suggests that a mere 10 per cent of adults aged 25 to 49 will support Sunak’s party on 4 July; while for the 18-to-24 age group, that drops to a negligible 4 per cent. Though they have more pressing concerns, this suggests that something has gone very wrong with the Tory party’s appeal.

The latest evidence suggests that these trends are more likely to persist as these generations get older, in contrast to the past when the Conservatives could count on the once-radical young drifting towards them as they acquired a stake in society. Overwhelmingly, that meant a home of one’s own, albeit mortgaged, and these citizens tended to rely on the Conservatives to provide them with that opportunity – and to protect them from the kind of economic turbulence associated with Labour governments. Those on the housing ladder and those with a realistic aspiration to get on its lower rungs would naturally gravitate towards the Tories.

For decades, particularly in the South East, that was a dependable source of loyal voters and a solid reason for their electoral hegemony. The Conservatives were, after all, the party that “owned” the notion of a “property-owning democracy”, whereas their socialist rivals seemed to prefer to place their fellow citizens into state-owned properties controlled by the local council. Notoriously, tenants weren’t able to paint their front door in a shade of their own choice. Margaret Thatcher’s “right to buy” policy was a highly popular scheme, and one that almost magically transubstantiated Labour tenants into Tory owner-occupiers.

There was even, unbelievably in today’s world, tax relief available on mortgage repayments, a state subsidy to promote ownership. Labour governments did not disturb the status quo too much, and in 2007, home ownership peaked at 73 per cent. It now stands at 63 per cent.

It hardly needs pointing out that the obstacles to home ownership are as high as they’ve ever been – in terms of affordability, by some measures houses are at their costliest since the 1870s.

The fundamental problem is supply. The construction industry hasn’t had the stable conditions to invest, the public sector hasn’t been able to make up the shortfall, and the stock of social housing has long since been sold off.

More than anything, however, has been Britain’s deeply flawed planning system, which seems to combine the worst tendencies towards nimbyism, property developers with scant regard for the environment, and local authorities too hard-pressed to fund necessary infrastructure – schools, nurseries, GP surgeries and so on.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats seem to have done the most work on the problem, though the Tories retain their traditional positive attitude and want to resurrect some help-to-buy schemes. What is clear is that whichever party manages to make homes affordable again will win a huge electoral dividend for their efforts.

Angela Rayner, most likely in charge of housing in a Labour administration, says she wants to build 1.5 million new homes. If she succeeds, she will have done as much as anyone to secure Labour a second term. But we are getting ahead of ourselves. Despite the politicians posing in hard hats and hi-vis jackets, their track record has been poor. The voters want a roof over their heads, preferably one they own, and they are rightly impatient for change.