July 16, 2024 • 2 mins
A presidential reelection bid is first and foremost a referendum on the incumbent president.
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Episode Transcript
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(00:01):
State, hard work and freedom.We've got so much more to do.
Florida is the trying mush President Biden'sreelection odds. So coming into any presidential
election cycle, if you have anincumbent president running for election, it's mostly
about them, and historically there's abig advantage. Two thirds sixty seven percent
(00:24):
of all incumbent presidents who've run forreelection have gone on to win, and
so you got two to one oddsbasically heading into the thing if you're the
incumbent. Now, one of thethings I've been able to do historically is
take a look at approval ratings ata particular moment in time, what has
(00:45):
happened with that election, and thenbeen able to take a look at the
probability of re election based upon thatapproval rating at that point, and to
give you an idea in twenty twenty, using this methodology, my final update
on election Day I was showing PresidentTrump's reelection odds at just thirty two percent.
(01:07):
So, in other words, thismethod once again proved to be generally
predictive of the actual election outcome.My previous update to this story was done
just over a month ago, wasin early June, and At that point,
President Biden's reelection odds stood at thelowest of the cycle at just twenty
percent. Where are we today,with an average approval rating at forty percent,
(01:30):
and that's rounding up to get tothe forty Biden's reelection ods stand at
just seventeen percent now blow a onein five chance. President Biden's current approval
rating two points lower than President Trump'son the same date, seven points lower
than Presidents Obama and George W.Bush. So always say is we're under
(01:51):
four months away from election day.Is President Biden putting in a historically low
performance, and he currently has arating that is seven points lower than any
president who's gone on to win reelection on the same date. By the
way, in Florida, President Biden'sapproval rating stands at just thirty four percent,
giving you an idea of where westand relatives to the country, six
(02:15):
percent more disapproving of him, makingobviously Trump the prohibitive favor to win our
state. As we take a lookat all these things starting to come together
now, and it also gives youan indication another view of why you're seeing
so much panic by so many peopleon the left. As Biden was talking
(02:37):
to Lester Holtz last night, tryingto tell I command my faculties always good
when you're having to explain that
State, hard work and freedom.We've got so much more to do.
Florida is the trying mush President Biden'sreelection odds. So coming into any presidential
election cycle, if you have anincumbent president running for election, it's mostly
about them, and historically there's abig advantage. Two thirds sixty seven percent
(00:24):
of all incumbent presidents who've run forreelection have gone on to win, and
so you got two to one oddsbasically heading into the thing if you're the
incumbent. Now, one of thethings I've been able to do historically is
take a look at approval ratings ata particular moment in time, what has
(00:45):
happened with that election, and thenbeen able to take a look at the
probability of re election based upon thatapproval rating at that point, and to
give you an idea in twenty twenty, using this methodology, my final update
on election Day I was showing PresidentTrump's reelection odds at just thirty two percent.
(01:07):
So, in other words, thismethod once again proved to be generally
predictive of the actual election outcome.My previous update to this story was done
just over a month ago, wasin early June, and At that point,
President Biden's reelection odds stood at thelowest of the cycle at just twenty
percent. Where are we today,with an average approval rating at forty percent,
(01:30):
and that's rounding up to get tothe forty Biden's reelection ods stand at
just seventeen percent now blow a onein five chance. President Biden's current approval
rating two points lower than President Trump'son the same date, seven points lower
than Presidents Obama and George W.Bush. So always say is we're under
(01:51):
four months away from election day.Is President Biden putting in a historically low
performance, and he currently has arating that is seven points lower than any
president who's gone on to win reelection on the same date. By the
way, in Florida, President Biden'sapproval rating stands at just thirty four percent,
giving you an idea of where westand relatives to the country, six
(02:15):
percent more disapproving of him, makingobviously Trump the prohibitive favor to win our
state. As we take a lookat all these things starting to come together
now, and it also gives youan indication another view of why you're seeing
so much panic by so many peopleon the left. As Biden was talking
(02:37):
to Lester Holtz last night, tryingto tell I command my faculties always good
when you're having to explain that
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