The Dallas-Fort Worth grocery market has been called the most competitive in the U.S. for years, but these days it’s in a class by itself.
One expensive way grocers fight it out is on street corners, and they’re claiming them one after another.
In a region where 1% market share represents a whopping $300 million in annual grocery sales, the battle for shoppers has intensified with an unprecedented 40 stores opened, under construction or announced by major grocers since last year. Dozens more have been or will be remodeled to the tune of as much as $2 million per store.
“This is the year of the grocer, and oh by the way, 2025 is the year of the grocer,” said Weitzman executive managing director Bob Young.
JLL’s managing director in Dallas, Mark Newman put it another way.
“The dam broke and H-E-B unleashed themselves onto the market,” Newman said. “Everyone else is not rolling over.”
Let’s just say lessons were learned in Houston since the turn of the century when many of the same major grocers were blindsided by an H-E-B expansion. By the end of this year, Walmart will have remodeled 90 Supercenters and Neighborhood markets in D-FW since 2022, when H-E-B opened its first store in Frisco.
H-E-B’s big move into D-FW, which so far includes 14 new stores open or announced, combined with record population gains in North Texas, has awakened the competitive juices of the largest U.S. grocers. Big and small grocers are building new local stores, while inflation has forced consumers to shift spending and look for lower prices.
Multiple new stores from Walmart, Target and Costco to Kroger, Tom Thumb, Sprouts Farmers Market, H-E-B and its Joe V’s Smart Shop plus single new stores from Fiesta Mart, El Rio Grande, Albertsons and Trader Joe’s have come at a rapid speed, positioned to fill in and catch up with D-FW’s growth.
Boomtowns
North Texas is home to five of the 15 fastest-growing U.S. cities — Celina, Princeton, Anna, Prosper and Forney, according to new data released this month by the U.S. Census.
That’s not a one-off.
D-FW was responsible for more than one-third of Texas population growth from 2020 to 2023.
New store plans stalled during the pandemic, when grocers were dealing with supply chain issues and the health of their staff and customers. In the years prior to the pandemic, new stores took a back seat as grocers were building up their online shopping infrastructure.
Now the well-worn adage that retailers follow rooftops is playing out, Young said. “It sounds obvious but it’s true because grocery is the king or queen of consumers’ daily needs. That’s why we have a commercial real estate market with one category exploding.”
The region has in-migration and job growth happening at all levels. That’s why there has been a variety of new stores opening such as Hispanic grocer Fiesta Mart and specialty grocer Trader Joe’s, both which haven’t opened local stores in years, Young said.
“This market is a bit more upscale than others. We have bigger stores than some other metropolitan areas around the country,” said Sally Lyons Wyatt, research firm Circana’s global executive vice president of consumer goods and food-service insights.
Circana’s research shows that consumers are buying smaller size packages to save money and eating out less, she said. Grocery inflation has softened, but restaurant prices have continued to accelerate.
“Some consumers are trading up to premium because they say they can’t go out to eat as much so I’ll buy the upscale version of Italian sauce and have a nice Italian meal in my home,” Lyons Wyatt said.
That’s contributed to a traffic rebound at supermarkets.
The size of the local grocery market increased 7% in 2023 to more than $30 billion, according to data from Chain Store Guide, as inflation has moderated. A slight decline in market share may not mean a grocer’s total D-FW sales were down from the prior year. Walmart retained its No. 1 ranking, but posted a decline in market share. No. 2 Kroger gained market share and still leads its traditional supermarket competitors.
Traditional grocers defend turf
Kroger’s construction on its replacement store in Plano to a larger Kroger Marketplace is underway with an early 2025 opening date. A new Fort Worth Marketplace store in the Bonds Ranch area across from land owned by H-E-B will open after Plano. The Melissa Kroger Marketplace will open this fall. Kroger has plans to open a half dozen fuel centers throughout D-FW this year all while construction costs are higher.
“Construction costs have increased 50% since 2020, but we are working hard to keep up with growing demand in North Texas,” said John Votava, Kroger spokesman in Texas.
Kroger just completed a more than $2 million remodel of its Mansfield store where H-E-B is about to open a new store. Ten major remodels costing $2 million each are scheduled for this year including stores in Forney and Shreveport this summer.
Walmart hasn’t opened a store in North Texas since 2018 and now has three planned in Frisco, Melissa and Celina.
H-E-B, which also owns Dallas-based Central Market, is bringing its Joe V’s Smart Shop, a value-priced concept, to Dallas with the first one opening on Wheatland Road in southern Dallas on June 12.
H-E-B is opening four stores this year and four more in 2025, in Prosper, Melissa and Rockwall and a second Joe V’s in southeast Dallas. H-E-B announced two stores so far for 2026 in Murphy and on a parcel that overlaps both Bedford and Euless.
Tom Thumb opened a new Frisco store in April and will open two more in Forney and Waxahachie by the end of this year. It will break ground on the RedBird store in 2025, said Christy Lara, spokeswoman for Tom Thumb which is owned by Albertson’s.
![Organic produce at the new Tom Thumb at 11401 Coit Road in Frisco.](https://dmn-dallas-news-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com/resizer/v2/FGORUSKDIRHUFNI32MMCIBNWT4.jpg?auth=c736ae2b7de28e0e316c8f001eeadbcc6c8c4828007cc5739a4db7412abcf374&width=430&quality=80)
![Tom Thumb's third Frisco store opened this year and H-E-B willl open its second.](https://dmn-dallas-news-prod.cdn.arcpublishing.com/resizer/v2/4Y4LO5IVSBDAPGG53AGCJHFV6U.jpg?auth=9edbe2d866b6ad3adaec87e42f7f4af7a15b1953e62c30ce3aa2aded25e276f0&width=430&quality=80)
Tom Thumb is planning two new stores in Denton County, in Sanger and Argyle, according to planning documents filed with the state.
The Tom Thumb stores in Wylie and Dallas (at Preston Road and Forest Lane) are being remodeled. “We have a number of stores planned for remodel; updating our stores continues to be one of our ongoing areas of focus,” Lara said.
Competition works
Big grocers do a better job of protecting their market and winning customers in the Dallas area than they do nationally, said Bobby Gibbs, partner with Oliver Wyman in Dallas.
“In a big market like Dallas that has a lot of strong grocers, people trust that they’re getting a good experience with whoever’s closest to them,” he said.
“Quality of product” is the No. 1 reason to shop at a grocery in national surveys that Oliver Wyman does, Gibbs said, but it’s second behind “friendliness and helpfulness of staff,” because in Dallas it’s more of a given.
“There’s consistently good products,” he said.
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