Josh Shapiro Or Tim Walz?: Cillizza Discusses Strengths & Weaknesses Of Kamala Harris's VP Shortlist

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On "Forbes Newsroom," Chris Cillizza, political commentator and Senior Adviser to the DGA Group, discussed Vice President Kamala Harris's potential running mates as the list narrows to Gov. Josh Shapiro (D-PA) and Gov. Tim Walz (D-MN).

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Transcript

00:00Hi, everybody. I'm Brittany Lewis with Forbes Breaking News. Joining me now is Chris Eliza,

00:07political commentator and senior advisor with DGA Group. Chris, thank you so much for joining

00:12me. Thrilled to be out. Thanks for having me.

00:15News is changing by the moment. So as of now, as we sit here, Reuters just reported that

00:21the shortlist for Vice President Kamala Harris's vice president is down to Governor Josh Shapiro

00:27of Pennsylvania and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz. Before we get into the pros and the

00:32cons of that list, I want to talk about who's not on it. And that's Arizona Senator Mark

00:38Kelly. Why do you think why do you think he didn't make the cut here?

00:44Shortlists keep getting shorter, right? We went from three to two. I think that Mark

00:48Kelly, look, on paper, he seems to me to be one of the stronger nominees. He's a former

00:56military. He was a NASA astronaut. He's married to Gabby Giffords, former Arizona congresswoman

01:01who became one of the faces of gun control in this country after she was almost killed

01:06in a incident during her campaign. He's from Arizona, which we know is the swing state.

01:11The issue for me is that, you know, campaigns are not fought on paper. And Mark Kelly is

01:16not super charismatic. I don't think picking Mark Kelly gets anyone to feel any particular

01:22way, good or bad. I guess you could argue that the fact that he doesn't move the needle

01:26all that much either way isn't the worst thing. But I just don't think it's someone who it's

01:31going to inject more energy into the campaign. That's sort of my guess of why he wound up

01:38not making it. The other thing, too, is I think Arizona is going to be a little bit

01:42of a stretch for the Harris campaign. They could win, but I think it's going to be a

01:45stretch. And they probably getting rid of Kelly is probably acknowledgement of that.

01:50So let's just talk about numbers here for a second, because Kelly's from Arizona that

01:56has 11 electoral votes. Shapiro's from Pennsylvania that has 19 electoral votes and Walsh's from

02:02Minnesota. That's 10. So who do you think or which state rather matters the most in

02:10this election?

02:11Yeah, well, I mean, I was terrible at math, but I definitely can tell you that 19 is more

02:17than 11 or 10. I feel very safe in acknowledging that. So you always want to go to states that

02:25count more, right? 19 electoral votes is still a very big haul of electoral votes. And that's

02:32why I tend to think Josh Shapiro is the pick. You know, I think we could argue that there

02:37are there are past 270 electoral votes for Kamala Harris that don't include her winning

02:42Pennsylvania. But man, there aren't that many. And I think outside of her inner circle, I'm

02:47not sure you could convince anyone that they are plausible that she could make winning

02:51Pennsylvania to me seems like a thing that has to happen for her to have a chance to

02:57win. It's not a guarantee that she'll win. But I think it's the most important state

03:02in the country for her bar none.

03:04Every strategist pollster commentator that I've talked to have said, historically, VP

03:10picks don't matter. They can only hurt not really help. A is it different this time because

03:16of the historic nature of this election? And B, what is the number one goal of Harris's

03:22VP pick?

03:24So let me do let me answer your question. The second question first. I think the number

03:29one goal of any VP VP pick is do no harm. You don't you don't want to make things worse

03:35when you're adding someone. Plus, it's her only big decision that she gets to make as

03:40a candidate for president, right? This is she can talk about all the policy she believes

03:44in. She can talk about the things she's done as VP. But as the presidential nominee, you

03:48really only get to make one big choice. And it's this. So you want ultimately it to not

03:53be a problem.

03:55Do I think the VP pick could matter? I would say it matters both good and bad at the margins.

04:02I think the truth of the matter is most people vote for the top of the ticket. I always say

04:06if you're a big time recruit, for example, in college basketball, if you go to the program

04:13and you really like the assistant coach, but you hate the head coach, you're probably

04:17not going to go there, right? So it can be additive. If you like the assistant and you

04:22like the head coach, maybe that makes you a little bit more likely to go to that school.

04:27That's how I think of VP picks. They're the assistant coach. You're probably not making

04:32your final decision based on that. But could it matter at the margin? I do think it could

04:37particularly when we're talking about a race in Pennsylvania. That's you know, it's a one

04:42point race. It's a two point race, depending on what polls you see. But it's going to be

04:46very close. I don't think that if Kamala Harris picks Josh Shapiro, all of a sudden she wins

04:51Pennsylvania 60 to 40, right? That's not going to happen. But if it's a 50, 48 race, could

04:58he make a point difference? Sure. He's a popular governor of the state. He was the attorney

05:04general prior. He's been elected three times successfully in Pennsylvania. He's at 58,

05:0860 percent job approval, including four in 10 Republicans, at least back in May, who say they

05:14approve of the job he's doing. So, yeah, I think it could make a difference at the margin. That's

05:18the key. You just rallied through a bunch of pros for assistant coach Josh Shapiro. But are there

05:26any cons when you're looking at him when he could be the vice president, any way he could

05:32potentially drag down that ticket if he's announced as the vice president tomorrow?

05:37Sure. You know, look, all of these people are human beings, which means they have their pluses

05:43and their minuses. There's no perfect candidate out there. If there was, that person would have

05:47already been picked. I think for Shapiro, the risk, I suppose, for Shapiro is he is Jewish.

05:54There are some people within the party and within the country who are concerned about putting a

05:59black woman and a Jewish man on the ticket. That is that asking too much of the tolerance of

06:04American voters. You know, very hard for me to make a determination on that. The other thing is

06:09Shapiro has been very pro-Israel in the conflict between Israel and Hamas, more so than I think

06:16some on the very progressive left would like. So is there a possibility that some liberals

06:23walk away? I guess there's a possibility. But to me, it's like the vote is really between Donald

06:29Trump and Kamala Harris. And the idea that young voters are going to say, you know what,

06:33because she picked Josh Shapiro, I'm not I'm going to go vote for Donald Trump. Is there

06:38someone in the country where that's true? Sure. Is it a large enough number of people for it to

06:43make a big difference? I don't think so. So let's talk about Governor Tim Walz,

06:48who wasn't even a part of the original conversation when it was coming down to VP

06:53picks, which seems like months ago. But really, it was only two weeks ago when Biden dropped out.

06:58He then made that viral comment about calling Republicans weird. And it seems like the Harris

07:03campaign really held on to that. And that is their strategy going forward. Just calling J.D. Vance

07:09weird, different Republicans weird. Now he is in the top two. So what are some pluses and minuses

07:15for him? Sure. He's from Minnesota, the Midwest. The election will come down to Pennsylvania,

07:22Wisconsin and Michigan, period. You know, if that's what happened in 2020, I think that's

07:27what will happen again in 2024. So if you have someone who can speak that language, right,

07:32who is seen as a credible voice, who can campaign actively in Michigan and Wisconsin in particular,

07:39I think that's an argument for him. The other thing, too, is he has a pretty impressive resume.

07:44Again, like Mark Kelly, served in the military, small town, rural upbringing, was a football

07:51coach, won a Republican House district when he was in the U.S. House, has been elected and

07:57reelected as governor of Minnesota. So there's a lot there. But I actually think you hit on it.

08:01Like, if you think about it, weirdly, Democrats have struggled to find a message that really

08:09kind of resonates as it relates to Donald Trump and J.D. Vance, particularly Trump. They've tried

08:14a million different things, and it hasn't really worked. But the weird thing did work at least for

08:21a week. And so I think they're thinking, the Harris people thinking is, you know, is this guy

08:26a messenger who can kind of break through and solve the riddle that Hillary Clinton couldn't,

08:32that no one in the Republican primary could either in 2016 or 2024, which is how do you

08:38beat Donald Trump from a message perspective and maybe walls that sort of, you know, unlock that

08:44lock? That's a really interesting point, because if someone were to be insulted, I think they would

08:50rather be called weird than a threat to democracy. I mean, a threat to democracy does carry a lot of

08:56weight, except in this instance, weird seems to be doing the trick. Why do you think that is?

09:03So, I mean, I've spent more time than I'd like to admit publicly thinking about just this is,

09:09you know, why do these things like Donald Trump calling the 2020 election fraudulent when there's

09:14no evidence that it was the January 6th riot at the U.S. Capitol? All of it. Why are those things

09:20things that motivate voters against him? I think the answer is that it's sort of baked in at this

09:26point that voters, whether it's the, you know, the 34 felony convictions, whether it's the

09:33bankruptcies, whether it's the stuff he said about elections and election fraud,

09:37they sort of like, well, that's Trump. You know, it just kind of like, well, we kind of already

09:42knew that about it. And it's hard to break through that sort of feedback loop. The weird thing,

09:51again, weirdly to me, seemed to do that. Now, it worked for a week. Well, you know, who knows?

09:58You know, and it worked largely against J.D. Vance, a little less so against Donald Trump.

10:02But, you know, I do think you never know what resonates with people. What I can tell you,

10:08I mean, I wrote and talked about this regularly when Joe Biden was still the candidate.

10:12Joe Biden wanted to make the election about capital D democracy. Democracy is on the ballot.

10:18You know, whether it's the 2020 election, January 6th, other things Donald Trump has said about

10:23being a dictator just for one day, that this is really what the election is about. Voters weren't

10:28responding. The Democratic base liked that message, but they were already going to be for

10:32whoever the Democratic nominee is. The issue is swing voters. And I don't think swing voters

10:36were particularly motivated by that. Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker,

10:41reportedly threw her support behind walls. As we know, according to reports, she was the one

10:47leading the charge in getting President Biden to drop out of this election. So how much do you

10:52think her opinion really matters here? Oh, I think it matters. I think my view,

10:59just a personal view, is that she is the single most effective political strategist and politician

11:05in the Democratic Party, with the exception of Barack Obama in the last 30 or 40 years. I mean,

11:10just look at what she's done. You can like her or not like her, but just look at what

11:13she's accomplished. So I think it matters. Do I think that Kamala Harris decides who she wants

11:22based on who Nancy Pelosi says? Probably not. But I do think you have to listen to Nancy Pelosi's

11:28sort of political ear, because I think that ear has been proven over the years to be very,

11:33very effective. But politicians, particularly when you're talking about a running mate,

11:38it's a very personal decision. I think we tend to analyze it based on, do they agree on policy?

11:44Will they help in a swing state? And I think it's like that, too. I think politicians think like

11:49that to an extent. I also think it's kind of a personal decision. Can I campaign with this person

11:55for the next four months? If we win, can I deal with this person for the next four years? You know,

12:01being my second in command, but probably wanting to take my job at some point. So it's a very,

12:06you know, it's politics is more relationship driven than I think we sort of give credit for.

12:11It's not just this dry numbers driven conversation. A lot of it's about, do I like this person? Do I

12:18think this person will support me in what I want to do? Do I think this person will help me win?

12:23Within the past two weeks, Vice President Kamala Harris has seen historic fundraising numbers.

12:29Her campaign has been called Brat. She's got that Gen Z embrace on social media.

12:34There's been a lot of talk about her VP pick. Once this is once the pick is picked, do you

12:41think that this honeymoon phase is going to end and then there's going to be more serious

12:45conversations solely on the policy? What the what an administration with Harris at the top

12:51of the ticket is going to look like? Good question, because the other thing I think

12:56you have to factor into that is the Democratic Convention starts August 19. So, you know,

13:01really, we're two weeks from today. So realistically, we're kind of looking at a

13:05two week window. Harris and whoever this VP pick will be, will campaign across the country over

13:12this coming week that will get a significant amount of positive attention unless they do

13:16something dumb. I mean, it should be a pretty easy rollout in swing states. And then you're

13:22a week away from the Democratic National Convention, which, you know, just like the

13:25Republican Convention was last month is basically sort of a four day long message opportunity for

13:30Democrats, right? That said, look, I covered the 2020 presidential race, the primary,

13:39she was not a great candidate. She took a number of positions in that race on fracking on Medicare

13:46for all on mandatory buyback of assault weapons on other things that she has since reversed,

13:51but she was trying to position herself to the left in that primary. There, to my mind,

13:58there is some there there as it relates to excavating her record and saying, well, you said

14:04this in 2020. But now you say that. Do we get to that between now and the Democratic Convention?

14:11I guess I'm a little skeptical that we do given the truncated timeline that actually works in

14:16Harris's favor. Do we get to that point before the election? Yeah, I think we do. I think before

14:23November, before voters vote, you'll see a deeper dive into her record, her position,

14:29some of her flip flops on the issues. You bring up a really interesting point, because

14:34if we all remember back to 2020, I mean, she was a candidate running for president who didn't even

14:39make it to the year 2020. She dropped out in 2019. So do you think that she is a better candidate

14:45now in 2024 than she was in 2020? Or simply Democrats ran out of time and this is their

14:51best option? A little from column A and a little from column B. I think more from column B. Look,

14:58the truth of the matter is, you know, Joe Biden gets out of the race at July 21st. It's the

15:05convention is less than a month away. You have a sitting vice president who is a Black and South

15:10Asian woman. It's very hard for her not to be the de facto nomination. She could have not,

15:16but very hard for her not to be. So I think it was kind of like we're in we're in a bad place.

15:20We've got this person here. We're going to move this person in. So part of it's that. To answer

15:25the first part of your question, man, Democrats sure hope that she's a better candidate than she

15:29was in 2020. You know, early indications are positive. The only thing I would say is like,

15:36it's not that hard to be a good candidate if what you're doing as a candidate is going to

15:42impact campaign rallies where everyone loves you. Yeah. I mean, like, you know,

15:49once you get over to the public speaking piece. Right. I mean, if I had went to something later

15:54this afternoon or tomorrow or whatever, where there were 100 people all chanting my name and

15:58holding signs like Chris is the best, it's a pretty comfortable environment. Right. I'm not

16:03sure you could judge how good a public speaker I am or how good I am on on streaming or TV or

16:08whatever, based on that. So she has not done any major sit down interviews. She has not taken any

16:16questions from the mainstream media. So like, she's really not faced any sort of adversity

16:23in these two weeks as a candidate, which I totally understand from their strategic standpoint,

16:28they want to make sure she gets off the ground in the best way possible. But that will come.

16:33And I think that's when we figure out if she's a good candidate or an improved candidate or not.

16:39Right. It's not really about like, I always tell my kids, like, anyone can be a good leader when

16:44your team is winning 19 to 2. It's harder to be a good leader when your team is losing 19 to 2.

16:50And, you know, so adversity, I think, will win and that will come because that's the nature of

16:54a campaign. I think adversity will sort of teach us more about her candidate quality, whether she's

17:00better or worse or the same than these two weeks out. And J.D. Vance has faced some tough questions

17:07about past comments he's made about women in particular. Do you think that her VP pick is

17:12going to have the same media experience as him or they've learned lessons from the Republicans'

17:20somewhat sloppy rollout of their vice presidential nominee? Yeah, I mean, Democrats certainly hope

17:25that this person doesn't have the same rollout as J.D. Vance. I mean, Rocky would be a kind way

17:31to describe that. The thing I didn't understand with Vance and why I always thought that Doug

17:35Burgum, the governor of North Dakota, was a better pick for Trump is that, look, Vance got elected

17:39to the Senate in 2022, but he was a public figure for a very long time before that, largely due to

17:44his memoir, Hillbilly Elegy. So he had given zillions of interviews and gone on podcasts.

17:51As someone who talks a lot for a living, you too, there's a lot of stuff out there. People can say

18:00to me, like, when you worked for The Washington Post in 2014, you said this. I'm like, man, that

18:04was like a decade ago. But OK, so that's the same problem that J.D. Vance has in some ways. There's

18:09just a lot of stuff of him talking. And he is sort of a provocateur, or at least he was sort of a

18:16provocateur, you know, a cultural critic. So he was sort of playing that role. But that is not

18:22the role that you want as a VP. And I think that's why that rollout has been rocky.

18:27Well, Chris, we certainly have a lot to look forward to, especially in the next 24 hours.

18:31I appreciate you coming on with me and you are welcome back anytime. Chris

18:35Eliza, thank you for joining. I'm happy to do it. Thank you for having me. Take care.

18:46Take care.

Josh Shapiro Or Tim Walz?: Cillizza Discusses Strengths & Weaknesses Of Kamala Harris's VP Shortlist

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