Tropical cyclone bearing down on Far North Queensland
The tropical cyclone is likely to hit between Cairns and St Lawrence on Wednesday 24 January, 2024.
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00:00 Tropical cyclone impacts are expected for the Queensland coast within the next 24 to 48 hours,
00:06 even though the development of the tropical cyclone has slowed.
00:10 Let me take you through the updates now.
00:12 Tropical low 05u is still sitting well offshore from the Queensland coast,
00:18 generating cloud and thunderstorms over the Coral Sea.
00:21 Slower than expected development of this system means that it is still a tropical low,
00:26 and isn't expected to become a tropical cyclone until early tomorrow morning.
00:31 Let's take a look at that now.
00:32 Our current tropical cyclone watch zone extends from Cairns to St Lawrence.
00:38 It doesn't include Cairns, but it does include Townsville, Mackay and the Whitsunday Islands.
00:44 We're expecting to see tropical cyclone impacts developing in these areas in the next 24 to 48
00:49 hours, so most likely from Wednesday night or early Thursday.
00:54 The tropical low is still sitting well offshore.
00:56 It will intensify over the next 24 hours, likely to become a tropical cyclone by early tomorrow
01:03 morning. At that time, it will be named as a tropical cyclone.
01:06 It will continue to move west-southwest towards the Queensland coast, and by late in the day
01:13 Wednesday, early Thursday, that's when we expect to see winds and rain increasing
01:18 across our initial tropical cyclone watch zone.
01:21 We could see heavy falls, flash flooding and damaging wind gusts developing in that area,
01:26 leading to property damage, road closures and possible power failures.
01:30 As the system nears the coast, that impact area is likely to become more extreme and much broader.
01:37 The system will continue to intensify through Thursday as it nears the Queensland coast.
01:44 This time yesterday, we were expecting it to become a severe tropical cyclone,
01:49 a category 3 system as it got close to the Queensland coast.
01:53 That may still happen, but it's looking more likely that it will be a category 2 system
01:58 as it approaches the coast.
01:59 A coastal crossing is now expected Thursday night going into early Friday morning.
02:05 It's slowed a little bit.
02:07 It's likely to occur between Cardwell and Airlie Beach and bring its most intense impacts
02:13 of rain, distractive winds and dangerous marine conditions in the form of storm tide and large
02:20 waves with this system as it moves across the coast.
02:23 We'll likely see significant tropical cyclone warning areas about those coastal parts at this
02:30 time.
02:30 After it does make its coastal crossing, this system is expected to weaken, moving inland
02:37 and dropping back to a tropical low by Friday night going into Saturday.
02:41 It'll take that heavy rain and strong wind with it across those inland areas.
02:46 In its wake, we may see continued significant flooding and continued dangerous marine conditions
02:53 as well.
02:53 But the rain and flooding across those more central parts of Queensland is likely to persist
03:00 through the weekend into early next week.
03:02 Let's take a quick look at that now.
03:04 These are the rainfall accumulations from today up until 1pm on Saturday.
03:09 And as we track through the weekend, we can see how it develops.
03:12 Those rainfall totals really build up across central and eventually southern parts of Queensland,
03:19 possibly even pushing into northern New South Wales.
03:22 This low, even though it won't be a tropical cyclone at that stage, will be continuing
03:27 to generate severe weather.
03:29 We're anticipating widespread flooding through the weekend going into early next week.
03:35 Our current flood watches are covering the coastal catchments between Tully and St Lawrence
03:39 in anticipation of that tropical cyclone reaching the coast.
03:44 But over the coming days, it's likely we'll see further changes, not just to our flood
03:48 watches, but to our flood warning areas.
03:51 With this tropical cyclone likely within the next 24 hours, it's essential to keep up
03:57 to date via the Bureau's website or the BOM Weather app.
04:00 Stay safe and we'll catch you in the next update.
04:02 (gentle music)
04:05 (gentle music)