Special Features

Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered N of the basin and lower pressure over northwestern Colombia will continue to support strong to near-gale winds at the south- central Caribbean through Friday. These winds are expected to peak at gale- force during the nighttime and early morning hours offshore of Barranquilla, Colombia. Seas will peak at 11 to 13 ft near the highest winds.

Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/Misfit.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean through the coast of Sierra Leone near Freetown, then extends southwestward to 03N16W. An ITCZ meanders westward from 03N16W to 00N42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 180 nm along either side of the ITCZ.

Gulf Of Mexico

A stationary front extends from near Pensacola, Florida, to New Orleans, Louisiana, to near Galveston Bay. Convection associated with this front has diminished early this morning, but patchy fog is restricting visibility within about 90 nm S of the boundary. Elsewhere, ridging from a 1022 mb high pressure center N of the Bahamas is leading to mainly moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas throughout the basin.

For the forecast, a cold front will enter the NW Gulf Wed night, then stall from the Bay of Campeche to near the Florida Big Bend Fri. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the front in the central Gulf Wed. Strong to near gale force winds are expected behind the front, possibly reaching minimal gale force off Tampico, Mexico briefly Thu evening.

Caribbean Sea

Please refer to the Special Feature section for information on a Gale Warning offshore Colombia.

The Atlantic Ridge oriented along 28N is sustaining a trade-wind regime across the Caribbean Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, strong ENE winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are evident in the central basin. Fresh with locally strong NE to ENE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are noted across eastern basin, as well as the Windward and Mona passages. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft dominate the western basin.

For the forecast, fresh E to NE trade winds and rough seas are expected across the remainder southwestern and central Caribbean into the weekend, with winds pulsing to strong speeds through the Windward Passage, in the Gulf of Venezuela, and S of Hispaniola. As the high pressure to the north builds southeast for the latter half of the week, strong winds and rough seas will expand to include much of the eastern Caribbean.

Atlantic Ocean

A surface ridge extends west-southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N37W and a 1025 mb high near 28N56W to a 1022 mb high north of the Bahamas. Light to gentle winds with 3 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are found north of 25N. Farther south, mainly fresh ENE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft exist.

For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to locally strong trade winds will prevail south of 25N through the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail N of 25N until Fri, when a cold front will slide south of 30N to the W of 70W, bringing fresh to strong NE winds behind it. Easterly swell and waves from the aforementioned trade winds will lead to rough seas S of 22N through the weekend.

Posted 0 minutes ago by NHC Forecaster Konarik