The Dusty Dilemma: Should AFL players be rested ahead of milestone matches?

If the naysayers on the internet are to be believed, there was never anything wrong with Dustin Martin. 

The Tigers champ was somewhat controversially rested in the lead-up to his team's upset win against the Crows last Thursday night. 

On paper, his omission made sense. 

At 32, the Tigers superstar is not getting any younger and a five-day break, coupled with interstate travel, is no walk in the park. 

Coach Adem Yze told media the 299-game veteran was "crook", but that due to a short turnaround he was touch-and-go to play last week regardless. 

The result means Martin, a player that has vigorously avoided the spotlight across his career, will play his milestone in front of a bursting MCG crowd this weekend. 

So was this a case of coaching cat-and-mouse to allow the notoriously big-game player an appropriate stage upon which to shine, or, as Yze put it, a "silver lining" to a fixturing conundrum?

Why do we care? 

For one, the roaring Tiger Army will be happy for a chance to celebrate the milestone, and perhaps, send off their champ. 

Rumours continue to abound that Martin will either walk away after his 300th game, or perhaps even hop a flight to the Gold Coast to join his former coach Damien Hardwick next year. 

A home match will certainly boost club coffers, and there's the sense of "home ground advantage" that a vocal Punt Road end can bring at the 'G.

And it couldn't come at a better time, with Yze's men shaking off a five-day break to record a thrilling win over the Crows at Adelaide Oval last week in a sign things might finally be on the improve at Tigerland. 

But should sports fans even care whether Martin was ill, rested or otherwise? 

What is it about resting for a milestone match that enrages the pundits more than any other time a player is "managed" or given a week off for "general soreness". 

The new norm 

Resting players for milestones is nothing new, at least not this season. 

Earlier this season the Cats gave Tom Hawkins a spell when the team flew to Darwin to tackle the Suns. 

It meant the club great was at Kardinia Park when he broke long-time teammate Joel Selwood's record for games played in navy and white hoops.

Equally, in the NRL, Jarrod Croker was given a week off before his 300th last year, though it didn't end nearly as well as the Raiders might have hoped. 

But not everyone is that sentimental. 

Port Adelaide's Travis Boak played both his 300th and 350th game in Melbourne. 

Just last month, GWS veteran Callan Ward hit the same 300-game milestone. The Giants were happy for him to do so at Docklands, rather than manipulating the occasion. 

In fact, of the active players to hit a major milestone match, just three of 10 have played their match at their home ground. That figure jumps to five when considering a club's home state.  

* Games played as of the end of  R12.

Only a handful of players have opted to rest before a milestone match. 

Matthew Pavlich lost in front a home crowd in this 350th match while Gary Ablett Jr enjoyed a victory in his 300th match in 2017 in front of his then home crowd on the Gold Coast.  

It means of the three matches where a club has chosen to give a player a week off before a milestone match, holding that game in front of a home crowd resulted in a win twice. 

During the past decade, clubs have generally got the points in milestone games regardless of location: 31 wins from 53 matches at a winning percentage of 58 per cent.

If you drill down to win-rate when those milestones are played at home you have 21 wins from 32 matches, a winning percentage of 65 per cent.

So, in a season where every small increase wins, is moving the odds in your favour not just practical but imperative? 

Who's next? 

Pendlebury is six games off reaching the 400-match milestone, but is still two weeks off returning from a bicep injury. 

All things being equal, his 400th game would likely be played against the Blues at the MCG on August 3.

West Coast forward Jack Darling could reach the 300-game milestone in the final match of the year, against Geelong in Kardinia Park, if he plays every game. 

That same milestone is in reach of Luke Breust if the Hawks make the first week of finals. 

What's the worst that could happen? 

The flaw in any plan to rest a player for a milestone occasion is the dreaded "what if". 

And if the Tigers are manipulating the schedule, it could be a huge if.  

Imagine if Martin does a hammy during the captain's run before Saturday's match. He'll be forever stuck on the dreaded 299. Richmond fans are permitted to knock on wood at this point of the article.  

That's because the other complicating factor is Richmond's injury crisis. 

Injury has meant the Tigers have played every player on their list this year, except category B rookie and former basketballer Ollie Hayes-Brown, who's still learning the game, having only just made the jump to VFL grade. 

But for the football romantics, this is just a case of things going perfectly to script. 

As is his way, Martin will shun the media and spotlight ahead of his milestone. 

This week he posed for photo with fellow 300+ game Tigers Jack Riewoldt, Trent Cotchin, Shane Edwards, Francis Bourke and Kevin Bartlett. 

Now, it's back to business on his favourite stage: the MCG. 

Whether it's the last time Tiger fans will see him in yellow and black, well, only Dusty knows that.