Early/Mid 2012 statewide opinion polling for the 2012 United States presidential election

Last updated

Statewide polls for the 2012 United States presidential election are as follows. The polls listed here, by state, are from January 1 to August 31, 2012, and provide early data on opinion polling between a possible Republican candidate against incumbent President Barack Obama.

Contents

Note that some states had not conducted polling yet or no updated polls were present from January 1 to August 31, 2012.

Obama vs. Romney Leading presidential candidate 2012 by state Obama Romney.svg
Obama vs. Romney
Obama vs. Gingrich Leading presidential candidate 2012 by state Obama Gingrich.svg
Obama vs. Gingrich
Obama vs. Santorum Leading presidential candidate 2012 by state Obama Santorum.svg
Obama vs. Santorum
Obama vs. Paul Leading presidential candidate 2012 by state Obama Paul.svg
Obama vs. Paul

Alabama

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 62%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 60%–38%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Capital Survey Research Center [1] August 13–16, 2012Barack Obama36%Mitt Romney54%18452 RV±4.6%
Capital Survey Research Center [2] June 7, 18–19, 26–27, 2012Barack Obama36%Mitt Romney51%15551 LV±4.2%

Arizona

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 55%–44%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [3] July 23–25, 2012Barack Obama41%Mitt Romney52%11833 RV±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [4] June 26, 2012Barack Obama41%Mitt Romney54%13500 LV±4.5%
Project New America/Public Policy Polling (D) [5] June 4–5, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney49%3791 RV±3.5%
Public Policy Polling [6] May 17–20, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney50%7500 RV±4.4%
DC London/Magellan Strategies (R) [7] April 30 – May 2, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney52%9909 LV±3.25%
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll [8] )April 9–17, 2012Barack Obama42%Mitt Romney40%2511 RV±4.4%
Arizona State University [9] April 8–14, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney42%2488 RV±4.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [4] March 13, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney51%11500 LV±4.5%
44% Rick Santorum 45%1
NBC News/Marist College [10] February 19–20, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney45%52,487 RV±1.8%
Barack Obama41% Ron Paul 43%2
Barack Obama45% Newt Gingrich 40%5
Barack Obama42%Rick Santorum45%3
Public Policy Polling [11] February 17–19, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney47%Tie743 RV±3.6%
Barack Obama46%Ron Paul42%4
Barack Obama48%Newt Gingrich44%4
Barack Obama46%Rick Santorum47%1
Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll) [12] January 5–9, 2012Barack Obama37%Mitt Romney43%6553 RV±4.3%
Barack Obama44%Ron Paul36%8
45%Newt Gingrich35%10
43%Rick Santorum34%9

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [13] May 17–20, 2012 Barack Obama 41% Mitt Romney 45% Gary Johnson 9%4500 RV±4.4%

Arkansas

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–45%
(Republican in 2008) 59%–39%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Talk Business/Hendrix College [14] March 26, 2012 Barack Obama 33% Mitt Romney 56.5%23.5759 LV±3.6%

California

55 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–37%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Policy Analysis for California Education/USC Rossier School of Education/Tulchin Research [15] August 3–7, 2012Barack Obama55.6%Mitt Romney32.7%22.91,041 LV±3.0%
CBRT/Pepperdine University/M4 Strategies [16] July 16–17, 2012Barack Obama51.9%Mitt Romney32.6%19.3812 LV±3.4%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) [17] June 21 – July 2, 2012Barack Obama55%Mitt Romney37%18848 LV±3.4%
SurveyUSA [18] May 27–29, 2012Barack Obama57%Mitt Romney36%211,575 RV±2.5%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) [19] May 21–29, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney32%16710 RV±3.8%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint [20] May 17–21, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney37%191,002 RV±3.5%
Public Policy Institute of California [21] May 14–20, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney39%11894 LV±4.2%
SurveyUSA [22] March 29, 2012 – April 2, 2012Barack Obama62%Mitt Romney31%311,995 RV±2.2%
USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times/Greenberg Quinlan Rosner/American Viewpoint [23] March 14–19, 2012Barack Obama57%Mitt Romney36%211,500 RV±2.9%
Field Research Corporation (Field Poll) [24] February 11–18, 2012Barack Obama55%Mitt Romney35%201,000 RV±3.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [25] February 8–16, 2012Barack Obama57%Mitt Romney35%22500±4.5%
58% Rick Santorum 30%28
SurveyUSA [26] February 8–9, 2012Barack Obama60%Mitt Romney31%292,088 RV±2.1%
63% Newt Gingrich 27%36
61% Ron Paul 29%31
61%Rick Santorum29%32

Colorado

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs [27] August 21–22, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney44%4500 LV±4.4%
Purple Strategies [28] August 13–14, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%3600 LV±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [29] August 6, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney47%Tied500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [30] August 2–5, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney43%6779 LV±3.5%
Purple Strategies [31] July 9–13, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney44%1600 LV±4.0%
Priorities USA Action/Garin-Hart-Yang-Research Group (D) [32] June 25 – July 5, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney42%7608 LV±4.%
We Ask America [33] June 25, 2012Barack Obama46.6%Mitt Romney43%3.61,083 LV±2.98%
Public Policy Polling [34] June 14–17, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney42%7799 LV±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [29] June 7, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney45%Tied500 LV±4.5%
Purple Strategies [35] May 31 – June 5, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney46%2600 LV±4.0%
NBC News/Marist College [36] May 22–24, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney45%11,030 RV±3.0%
Project New America/Keating Research/Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs (D) [37] May 21–24, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney44%4601 RV±4.0%
Purple Strategies [38] April 19–23, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney47%TiedNot reported±4.1%
Public Policy Polling [39] April 5–7, 2012Barack Obama53%Mitt Romney40%13542±4.2%
55% Newt Gingrich 37%18
54% Rick Santorum 38%16
47% Ron Paul 42%5

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [30] August 2–5, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney42%Gary Johnson4%4779±3.5%
Public Policy Polling [34] June 14–17, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney39%Gary Johnson7%8799±3.5%

Connecticut

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 54%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Quinnipiac University [40] August 22–26, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney45%71,472 LV±2.6%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [41] August 21, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney43%8500 LV±4.5%
Quinnipiac University [42] May 29, 2012 – June 3, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney38%121,408±2.6%
Quinnipiac University [43] March 14–19, 2012Barack Obama53%Mitt Romney37%161,622±2.4%
55% Rick Santorum 35%20

Florida

29 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 52%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 51%–48%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation [44] August 22–26, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney46%4776 LV±3.5%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University [45] August 15–21, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%31,241 LV±2.8%
Gravis Marketing [46] August 20, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney48%3728 LV±3.8%
Foster McCollum White Baydoun/Douglas Fulmer & Associates [47] August 17, 2012Barack Obama39.9%Mitt Romney54.46%14.561,503 LV±2.53%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [48] August 15, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney45%2500 LV±4.5%
Purple Strategies [28] August 13–14, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney48%1600 LV±4.0%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University [49] July 24–30, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney45%61,177 LV±3.0%
Public Policy Polling [50] July 26–29, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney47%1871 LV±3.3%
WFLA-TV Tampa/SurveyUSA [51] July 17–19, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney43%5647 LV±3.9%
Purple Strategies [52] July 9–13, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney48%3600 LV±4.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [53] July 9–11, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney45%1800 RV±3.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [48] July 9, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney46%1500 LV±4.5%
Priorities USA/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) [32] June 25 – July 3, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney44%4608 LV±4.0%
We Ask America [54] July 1–2, 2012Barack Obama46.1%Mitt Romney45.3%0.81,127 LV±2.9%
Quinnipiac University [55] June 19–25, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney41%41,200 RV±2.8%
Quinnipiac University [56] June 12–18, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney42%41,697 RV±2.4%
Purple Strategies [57] May 31, 2012 – June 5, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney49%4600 LV±4.0%
Public Policy Polling [58] May 31 – June 3, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney46%4642 RV±3.9%
Quinnipiac University [59] May 15–21, 2012Barack Obama41%Mitt Romney47%61,722 RV±2.4%
NBC News/Marist College [60] May 17–20, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney44%41,078 RV±3.0%
Suffolk University/7News [61] May 6–8, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney45%1600 RV±4%
Quinnipiac University [62] April 25 – May 1, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney44%11,169 RV±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [48] April 25, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney46%1500 LV±4.5%
Purple Strategies [63] April 19–23, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney47%2600 LV±4.1%
Fox News/Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company [64] April 15–17, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney43%2757 RV±4.0%
Public Policy Polling [65] April 12–15, 2012Barack Obama52% Newt Gingrich 40%8700 LV±3.7%
50% Ron Paul 40%10
50%Mitt Romney45%5
Quinnipiac University [66] March 20–26, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney42%71,228 RV±2.8%
50% Rick Santorum 37%13
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [48] March 13, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney43%3500 LV±4.5%
45%Rick Santorum43%2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [48] February 9, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney44%3500 LV±4.5%
47%Rick Santorum46%1
NBC News/Marist College [67] January 25–27, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney41%81,739 LV±2.7%
52%Newt Gingrich35%17
50%Ron Paul36%14
50%Rick Santorum35%15
Mason-Dixon Research & Polling/Miami Herald/El Nuevo Herald [68] January 24–26, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney48%4800 LV±3.5%
Barack Obama50%Newt Gingrich41%9
50%Rick Santorum39%11
Suffolk University [69] January 22–24, 2012Barack Obama42%Mitt Romney47%5600 RVNot reported
Barack Obama49%Newt Gingrich40%9
Quinnipiac University [70] January 19–23, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney45%Tied1,518 RV±2.5%
Barack Obama50%Newt Gingrich39%11
47%Ron Paul39%8
49%Rick Santorum40%9
Everglades Foundation/Tarrance Group (R) [71] January 4–8, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney45%1607 LV±4.1%
Quinnipiac University [72] January 4–8, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney46%31,412 RV±2.8%
Barack Obama45%Rick Santorum43%2

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Mason Dixon [53] July 9–11, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 45% Gary Johnson 2%1800±3.5%

Georgia

16 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
20/20 Insight [73] August 15–18, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney49%31,158 LV±2.9%
Majority Opinion Research/InsiderAdvantage [74] May 22, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney52%12438Not reported
Rosetta Stone Communications/Landmark Communications [75] May 10, 2012Barack Obama40.2%Mitt Romney51.1%10.9600 RV±4.0%
SurveyUSA [76] February 23–26, 2012Barack Obama44% Newt Gingrich 48%41,156 RV±2.9%
42%Mitt Romney49%7
43% Rick Santorum 47%4
43% Ron Paul 46%3

Illinois

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 55%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–37%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Crain's Chicago Business/Ipsos [77] July 16–22, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney31%20600±4.7%
WGN-TV/Chicago Tribune [78] February 2–6, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney35%21600±4.0%

Indiana

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [79] July 31 – August 1, 2012Barack Obama35%Mitt Romney51%16400 LV±5.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [79] May 25, 2012Barack Obama42%Mitt Romney48%6600 LV±4.0%
Howey Politics/DePauw University/Bellwether Research/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group [80] March 26–27, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney49%9503 LV±4.5%
41% Rick Santorum 46%5

Iowa

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [81] August 23–26, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney45%21,244 LV±2.8%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [82] August 8, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney46%2500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [83] July 12–15, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney43%51,131 RV±2.91%
We Ask America [84] June 18, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney44%11,086 LV±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [82] June 11, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney47%1500 LV±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College [85] May 22–24, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney44%Tied1,106 RV±3.0%
Public Policy Polling [86] May 3–6, 2012Barack Obama47% Ron Paul 39%81,181 RV±2.85%
Barack Obama51% Mitt Romney 41%10
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. [87] February 12–15, 2012Barack Obama51% Newt Gingrich 37%14611 LV±3.5%
Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney46%2
42%Ron Paul49%7
44% Rick Santorum 48%4

Maine

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–45%
(Democratic in 2008) 58%–40%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Portland Press Herald/Critical Insights [88] June 20–25, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney35%14615 RV±4.0%
MassINC Polling Group [89] June 13–14, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney34%14506 LV±4.4%
Critical Insights [90] May 2–7, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney42%8600 RV±4.0%
Public Policy Polling [91] March 2–4, 2012Barack Obama54% Ron Paul 38%161,256 RV±2.8%
58% Rick Santorum 35%23
60% Newt Gingrich 32%28
58% Mitt Romney 35%23

Maryland

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 56%–43%
(Democratic in 2008) 61%–38%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Marylanders for Marriage Equality/Public Policy Polling (D) [92] May 14–16, 2012Barack Obama58%Mitt Romney35%23852 LV±3.4%

Massachusetts

11 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 62%–37%
(Democratic in 2008) 62%–36%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Kimball Political Consulting [93] August 21, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney41%11592 LV±4%
Public Policy Polling [94] August 16–19, 2012Barack Obama55%Mitt Romney39%161,115LV±2.9%
Public Policy Polling [95] June 22–24, 2012Barack Obama55%Mitt Romney39%16902LV±3.3%
Western New England University [96] May 29–31, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney34%22504 LV±4.4%
The Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire [97] May 25–31, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney34%12651 LV±3.8%
Suffolk University [98] May 20–22, 2012Barack Obama59%Mitt Romney34%25600 LV±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [99] May 7, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney35%21500 LV±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [99] April 9, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney40%11500 LV±4.5%
The Boston Globe/University of New Hampshire [100] March 21–27, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney33%16544 LV±4.4%
Public Policy Polling [101] March 16–18, 2012Barack Obama62% Newt Gingrich 28%34936 RV±3.2%
58% Ron Paul 30%28
58%Mitt Romney35%23
61% Rick Santorum 29%32
MassLive.com/The Republican/Western New England University [102] February 23 – March 1, 2012Barack Obama60%Mitt Romney34%26527 RV±4.3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [99] February 29, 2012Barack Obama55%Mitt Romney38%17500 LV±4.5%
58%Rick Santorum32%26
Suffolk University [103] February 11–15, 2012Barack Obama63%Newt Gingrich27%36600 LV±4.0%
53%Mitt Romney39%14
59%Rick Santorum32%27
60%Ron Paul26%34
Mass Insight Global Partnerships/Opinion Dynamics Corporation [104] January 31 – February 4, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney38%18456 RV±4.6%

Four Way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Green %Libertarian %Lead margin
Public Policy Polling [95]
Margin of error: ±3.3%
Sample size: 902LV		June 22–24, 2012 Barack Obama 53% Mitt Romney 38% Jill Stein 3% Gary Johnson 1%15

Michigan

16 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–41%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
EPIC-MRA [105] August 28, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%31200 LV±2.6%
Mitchell Research & Communications [106] August 23, 2012Barack Obama46.6%Mitt Romney47.7%0.11277 LV±2.74%
Detroit News/Glengariff Group [107] August 18–20, 2012Barack Obama47.5%Mitt Romney42.0%5.5600 LV±4.0%
Foster McCollum White & Associates/Baydoun Consulting [108] August 16, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney48%41,733 LV±2.35%
Mitchell Research & Communications [109] August 13, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney44%51,079 LV±2.98%
EPIC-MRA [110] July 24–31, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney42%6600 LV±3.5%
Mitchell Research & Communications [111] July 23, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney45%1825 LV±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [112] July 23, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney42%6500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [113] July 21–23, 2012Barack Obama53%Mitt Romney39%14579 RV±4.1%
NBC News/Marist College [114] June 24–25, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney43%41,078 RV±3.0%
Mitchell Research & Communications [115] June 18, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney46%1750 LV±3.58%
We Ask America [84] June 18, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney45%21,010LV±3.0%
Lambert, Edwards & Associates/Denno Research [116] June 14–15, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney40%Tied600 LV±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [112] June 14, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney42%8500 LV±4.5%
Baydoun Consulting/Foster McCollum White & Associates [117] June 12, 2012Barack Obama46.89%Mitt Romney45.48%1.411,783±2.32%
EPIC-MRA [118] June 2–5, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney46%1600 LV±4%
Public Policy Polling [119] May 24–27, 2012Barack Obama53%Mitt Romney39%14500 RV±4.4%
Glengariff Group [120] May 10–11, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney40%5600 LV±4%
EPIC-MRA [121] March 31 – April 3, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney43%4600 LV±4%
Marketing Resource Group [122] March 14–19, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney42%7600 LV±4%
NBC News/Marist College [10] February 19–20, 2012Barack Obama55% Rick Santorum 29%263,149 RV±1.8%
56% Newt Gingrich 28%28
53% Ron Paul 31%22
51%Mitt Romney33%18
Public Policy Polling [123] February 10–12, 2012Barack Obama50%Rick Santorum39%11560 RV±4.14%
56%Newt Gingrich34%22
52%Ron Paul34%18
54%Mitt Romney38%16
Detroit Free Press/EPIC-MRA [124] January 21–25, 2012Barack Obama51%Newt Gingrich38%13600 LV±4%
48%Mitt Romney40%8

Minnesota

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/SurveyUSA [125] July 17–19, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney40%6552 LV±4.3%
Public Policy Polling [126] May 31 – June 3, 2012Barack Obama54%Mitt Romney39%15973 RV±3.1%
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/Survey USA [127] May 9–10, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney38%14516 RV±4.4%
KSTP-TV Minneapolis/Survey USA [128] January 31 – February 2, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney36%13542 RV±4.3%
55% Newt Gingrich 29%26
48% Ron Paul 37%11
51% Rick Santorum 32%19
Public Policy Polling [129] January 21–22, 2012Barack Obama54%Newt Gingrich39%151,236 RV±2.8%
52%Rick Santorum40%12
51%Ron Paul38%13
51%Mitt Romney41%10

Missouri

10 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 53%–46%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–49%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [130] August 28–29, 2012Barack Obama41%Mitt Romney53%12621 LV±3.9%
St. Louis Post-Dispatch/Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [131] August 22–23, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney50%7625 LV±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [132] August 22, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney46%1500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [133] August 20, 2012Barack Obama42%Mitt Romney52%10500 LV±4.4%
KSDK-TV St. Louis/KSHB-TV Kansas City/KSPR-TV Springfield/KYTV-TV Springfield/SurveyUSA [134] August 9–12, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney45%1585 LV±4.1%
Missouri Scout/Chilenski Strategies [135] August 8, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney48%1663LV±3.8%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [132] July 30, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney50%6500 LV±4.5%
We Ask America [136] July 24, 2012Barack Obama39.73%Mitt Romney49.01%9.281,172 LV±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [132] June 7, 2012Barack Obama42%Mitt Romney49%7500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [137] May 24–27, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney44%1602 RV±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [132] April 17, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney48%3500 LV±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [132] March 14–15, 2012Barack Obama42% Rick Santorum 51%9500 LV±4.5%
Barack Obama41%Mitt Romney50%9
Public Policy Polling [138] January 27–29, 2012Barack Obama49% Newt Gingrich 42%7582 RV±4.1%
Barack Obama45% Ron Paul 43%2
Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney45%Tied
Barack Obama47%Rick Santorum44%3

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Capitol Correspondent/North Star Campaign Systems/North Star Campaign Systems/Gravis Marketing (R) [139] August 23, 2012Barack Obama36.1%Mitt Romney53.1%Gary Johnson4.1%171,057 A±3.4%
We Ask America [136] July 24, 2012 Barack Obama 39.7% Mitt Romney 49.0% Gary Johnson 2.1%9.31,172 LV±3.0%

Montana

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 59%–39%
(Republican in 2008) 49%–47%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [140] August 20, 2012Barack Obama38%Mitt Romney55%17500 LV±4.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [140] June 18, 2012Barack Obama42%Mitt Romney51%9500±5.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [140] May 2, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney51%7450 LV±5.0%
Public Policy Polling [141] April 26–29, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney48%5934 RV±3.2%
41% Ron Paul 49%8
Barack Obama45% Newt Gingrich 45%Tie
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [140] February 22, 2012Barack Obama41%Mitt Romney48%7500 RV±4.5%
41% Rick Santorum 45%4

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [141] April 26–29, 2012Barack Obama41%Mitt Romney43%Gary Johnson8%2934±3.2%

Nebraska

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 66%–33%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [142] May 16, 2012Barack Obama39%Mitt Romney53%14500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [143] March 22–25, 2012Barack Obama39%Mitt Romney51%121,028 RV±3.1%
38% Rick Santorum 55%17
40% Newt Gingrich 49%9
37% Ron Paul 49%12
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [142] March 5, 2012Barack Obama35%Mitt Romney52%17500 LV±4.5%
37%Rick Santorum49%12

Second congressional district

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat%Republican%Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [143] March 22–25, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney46%1Not reportedNot reported
Barack Obama47%Rick Santorum47%Tied
Barack Obama46%Newt Gingrich44%2
Barack Obama42%Ron Paul44%2

Nevada

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 55%–43%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [144] August 23–26, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney47%3831 LV±3.4%
Las Vegas Review-Journal /SurveyUSA [145] August 16–21, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney45%2869 LV±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [146] July 24, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney45%5500 LV±4.5%
Magellan Strategies [147] July 16–17, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney46%4665 RV±3.8%
Public Policy Polling [148] June 7–10, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney42%6500 RV±4.4%
NBC News/Marist College [149] May 22–24, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney46%21,040 RV±3.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [146] April 30, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney44%8500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [150] March 29 – April 1, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney43%8533 RV±4.2%
54% Rick Santorum 40%14
49% Ron Paul 42%7
54% Newt Gingrich 39%15
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [146] March 19, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney44%6500 LV±4.5%
52%Rick Santorum36%16

Three-way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat%Republican%Libertarian%Lead MarginSample sizeMargin of error
We Ask America [151] July 17–18, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney43%Gary Johnson2%61,092 LV±2.95%

New Hampshire

4 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [152] August 9–12, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney45%61,055 LV±3.0%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [153] August 1–12, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%3555 LV±4.2%
Democracy for America/Public Policy Polling (D) [154] August 5–8, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney44%61,591 LV±2.5%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [155] July 5–15, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney45%4470 LV±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College [156] June 24–25, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney42%11029 RV±3.1%
American Research Group [157] June 21–24, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%3417 LVNot reported
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [158] June 20, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney43%5500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [159] May 10–13, 2012Barack Obama53%Mitt Romney41%121,163 RV±2.9%
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [160] April 9–20, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney42%9486 LV±4.4%
Dartmouth College [161] April 2–5, 2012Barack Obama42.4%Mitt Romney43.9%1.5403 RV±4.9%
American Research Group [157] March 15–18, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney46%2557 RVNot reported
WMUR/University of New Hampshire [162] January 25 – February 2, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney40%10495 LV±4.4%
50% Ron Paul 42%8
60% Newt Gingrich 35%25
56% Rick Santorum 35%21

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [163] May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 51% Mitt Romney 38% Gary Johnson 7%131,163±2.9%

New Jersey

14 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 52%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Rutgers University [164] August 23–25, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney37%14710 LV±3.5%
Monmouth University [165] July 18–22, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney38%13678 RV±3.8%
Quinnipiac University [166] July 9–15, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney38%111,623 RV±2.4%
Rutgers University [167] May 31 – June 4, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney33%231,065 RV±2.9%
Quinnipiac University [168] May 9–14, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney39%101,582±2.5%
Fairleigh Dickinson University (PublicMind) [169] April 30 – May 6, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney36%14797 RV±3.5%
Quinnipiac University [170] April 3–9, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney40%91,607 RV±2.4%
51% Rick Santorum 36%15
Quinnipiac University [171] February 21–27, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney39%101,396 RV±2.6%
55% Newt Gingrich 30%25
52%Rick Santorum34%18
WABC-TV New York/SurveyUSA [172] February 24–26, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney38%14533 RV±4.3%
61%Newt Gingrich27%34
57%Rick Santorum33%24
56% Ron Paul 31%25
Rutgers University [173] February 9–11, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney31%25914 RV±3.3%
Quinnipiac University [174] January 10–16, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney38%101,460 RV±2.6%

New Mexico

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [175] August 21, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney38%14500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [176] July 13–16, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney44%5724 RV±3.6%
We Ask America [177] July 9–10, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney40%111,295 LV±2.8%
Patriot Majority/FM3 Research (D) [178] May 16–21, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney35%13502 RV±4.4%
Public Policy Polling [179] April 19–22, 2012Barack Obama54%Mitt Romney40%14526 RV±4.3%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [175] April 3, 2012Barack Obama53% Rick Santorum 38%15500 LV±4.5%
52%Mitt Romney36%16
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [175] February 14, 2012Barack Obama55%Rick Santorum37%18500 LV±4.5%
55%Mitt Romney36%19

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [176] July 13–16, 2012Barack Obama42%Mitt Romney38%Gary Johnson13%4724±3.64%
Public Policy Polling [180] April 19–22, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney35%Gary Johnson15%13526±4.3%

New York

29 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 58%–40%
(Democratic in 2008) 63%–36%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Siena College [181] August 14–19, 2012Barack Obama62%Mitt Romney33%29671 LV±3.8%
Siena College [182] July 10–15, 2012Barack Obama61%Mitt Romney34%27758 RV±3.6%
Siena College [183] June 3–6, 2012Barack Obama59%Mitt Romney35%24807 RV±3.4%
Quinnipiac University [184] May 22–28, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney31%251,504 RV±2.5%
Siena College [183] May 6–10, 2012Barack Obama57%Mitt Romney37%20766 RV±3.5%
NY1/YNN/Marist College [185] April 10–12, 2012Barack Obama57%Mitt Romney35%22632 RV±4.0%
Siena College [183] April 1–4, 2012Barack Obama65% Newt Gingrich 29%36808 RV±3.4%
61% Ron Paul 31%30
60%Mitt Romney35%25
62% Rick Santorum 23%39
Quinnipiac University [186] March 28 – April 2, 2012Barack Obama56%Mitt Romney33%231,597 RV±2.5%
59%Rick Santorum30%29
Siena College [187] February 26–29, 2012Barack Obama60%Mitt Romney34%26808 RV±3.4%
64%Rick Santorum30%34
62%Ron Paul29%33
66%Newt Gingrich27%39
Quinnipiac University [188] February 8–13, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney35%171,233 RV±2.8%
57%Newt Gingrich31%26
53%Rick Santorum35%18

North Carolina

15 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–44%
(Democratic in 2008) 50%–49%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
FOX 8/High Point University/SurveyUSA [189] August 26–30, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney46%3543 RV±4.3%
Elon University [190] August 25–30, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney47%41,089 LV±3%
CNN/Time/Opinion Research Corporation [44] August 22–26, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney48%1766 LV±3.5%
High Point University/SurveyUSA [191] August 18–23, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney43%Tied540 RV±4.3%
Public Policy Polling [192] August 2–5, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%3813 LV±3.4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [193] August 1, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney49%5500 LV±4.5%
Civitas Institute/National Research (R) [194] July 16–18, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney49%1600 RV±4%
Public Policy Polling [195] July 5–8, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney46%1775 RV±3.5%
Project New America/Myers Research (D) [196] July 1–8, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney49%1500 LV±4.4%
Civitas Institute/SurveyUSA [197] June 29 – July 1, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney50%5558 RV±4.2%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [198] June 25, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney47%3500 LV±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College [199] June 24–25, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney44%21,019 RV±3.1%
Public Policy Polling [200] June 7–10, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney48%2810 RV±3.4%
WRAL-TV Raleigh/SurveyUSA May 18–21, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney45%1524 LV±4.4%
Civitas Institute/National Research (R) [201] May 19–20, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney47%2600 RV±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [198] May 14, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney51%8500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [202] May 10–13, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney47%1666 RV±3.8%
WRAL-TV Raleigh/Survey USA [203] April 26–30, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney43%41,636 RV±2.5%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [198] April 10, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney46%2500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [204] April 4–7, 2012Barack Obama51% Newt Gingrich 41%10975 RV±3.1%
48% Ron Paul 43%5
49%Mitt Romney44%5
50% Rick Santorum 44%6
Public Policy Polling [205] March 8–11, 2012Barack Obama51%Newt Gingrich42%9804 RV±3.5%
48%Ron Paul41%7
49%Mitt Romney46%3
49%Rick Santorum44%5
Public Policy Polling [206] February 3–5, 2012Barack Obama50%Newt Gingrich45%51,052 RV±3.0%
47%Ron Paul41%6
47%Mitt Romney46%1
48%Rick Santorum46%2
Civitas Institute/National Research (R) [207] January 9–11, 2012Barack Obama39%Mitt Romney48%9300 RV±4.0%
Public Policy Polling [208] January 5–8, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney45%1780 RV±3.5%
49%Newt Gingrich43%6
47%Ron Paul41%6
49% Rick Perry 41%8
Barack Obama46%Rick Santorum46%Tied

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [202] May 10–13, 2012 Barack Obama 46% Mitt Romney 44% Gary Johnson 6%2666±3.8%

North Dakota

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 63%–36%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
North Dakota Democratic-NPL State Party/DFM Research (D) [209] July 24–26, 2012Barack Obama35%Mitt Romney54%19400 LV±4.9%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [210] July 10–11, 2012Barack Obama36%Mitt Romney51%15400±5.0%
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [211] June 4–6, 2012Barack Obama39%Mitt Romney52%13625 RV±4.0%

Ohio

18 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 51%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 52%–47%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Capitol Correspondent/Gravis Marketing [212] August 27, 2012Barack Obama45.27%Mitt Romney44.39%0.88728 LV±3.8%
Columbus Dispatch [213] August 15–25, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney45%Tied1,758 LV±2.1%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University [45] August 21, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney44%61,253 LV±2.8%
University of Cincinnati [214] August 16–21, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%3847 LV±3.4%
Purple Strategies [28] August 13–14, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney46%2600 LV±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [215] August 13, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney45%Tied500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [216] August 9–12, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney45%3961 LV±3.2%
Quinnipiac University [217] July 24–30, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney44%61,193 LV±3.0%
We Ask America [218] July 24, 2012Barack Obama47.84%Mitt Romney40.2%7.641,115 LV±3.0%
Opportunity Ohio/Magellan Strategies (R) [219] July 23–24, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney43%2597 LV±4.01%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [215] July 18, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney45%2500 LV±4.5%
Purple Strategies [52] July 9–13, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney45%3600 LV±4.0%
Priorities USA Action/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) [220] June 25 – July 3, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney41%7608 LV±4.0%
Quinnipiac University [55] June 19–25, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney38%91,237 RV±2.8%
Public Policy Polling [221] June 21–24, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney44%3673 RV±3.8%
Purple Strategies [57] May 31 – June 5, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney48%3600 LV±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [215] May 29, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney46%2500 LV±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College [60] May 17–20, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney42%61,103RV±3.0%
Quinnipiac University [222] May 2–7, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney44%11,069 RV±3.0%
Public Policy Polling [223] May 3–6, 2012Barack Obama48% Ron Paul 40%8875 RV±3.3%
50%Mitt Romney43%7
Quinnipiac University [62] April 25 – May 1, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney42%21,130 RV±2.9%
Purple Strategies [63] April 19–23, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney44%5Not reported±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [215] April 18, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney42%4500 LV±4.5%
Fox News/Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company [224] April 15–17, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney39%6606 RV±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [215] March 26, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney40%8500 LV±4.5%
47% Rick Santorum 41%6
Quinnipiac University [66] March 20–26, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney41%61,246 RV±2.8%
47%Rick Santorum40%7
NBC News/Marist College [225] February 29 – March 2, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney38%121573 RV±2.5%
51% Newt Gingrich 36%15
48%Ron Paul38%101505 RV
50%Rick Santorum36%14
Fox News/Anderson Robbins/Shaw & Company [226] February 11–13, 2012Barack Obama38%Mitt Romney44%6505 RV±4.5%
Barack Obama43%Newt Gingrich37%6
Barack Obama40%Rick Santorum43%3
Barack Obama41%Ron Paul42%1
Quinnipiac University [227] February 7–12, 2012Barack Obama50%Newt Gingrich38%121,421 RV±2.6%
47%Rick Santorum41%6
46%Ron Paul40%6
46%Mitt Romney44%2
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [228] February 8, 2012Barack Obama44%Rick Santorum44%Tied500 LV±4.5%
Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney41%4
Public Policy Polling [229] January 28–29, 2012Barack Obama48%Rick Santorum42%6820 RV±3.4%
51%Newt Gingrich39%12
48%Ron Paul38%10
49%Mitt Romney42%7
Quinnipiac University [230] January 9–16, 2012Barack Obama48%Rick Santorum37%111,610 RV±2.4%
52%Newt Gingrich38%14
48%Ron Paul39%9
44%Mitt Romney42%2

Oklahoma

7 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 65.6%–34.4%
(Republican in 2008) 65.7%–34.4%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
SoonerPoll [231] July 26 – August 14, 2012Barack Obama29%Mitt Romney58%29495 LV±4.4%
SoonerPoll [232] May 7–10, 2012Barack Obama27%Mitt Romney62%35504 LV±4.4%

Oregon

7 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–47%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
PPP [233] June 21–24, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney42%8686±3.7%
Survey USA [234] May 7–10, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney43%41,468±2.6%
Survey USA [235] March 14–19, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney39%111,615±2.5%
54% Newt Gingrich 34%20
49% Rick Santorum 40%9
48% Ron Paul 39%9

Pennsylvania

20 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 51%–48%
(Democratic in 2008) 54%–44%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Philadelphia Inquirer/Global Strategy Group/National Research Inc. [236] August 21–23, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney42%9601 LV±4%
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College [237] August 20–22, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney40%9422 LV±5%
Franklin and Marshall College [238] August 7–12, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney42%5681 RV±3.8%
Quinnipiac University [217] July 24–30, 2012Barack Obama53%Mitt Romney42%111,168 LV±3.0%
Public Policy Polling [113] July 21–23, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney43%6758 RV±3.6%
Republican State Committee of Pennsylvania/Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. (R) [239] July 19–23, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney43%3800 LV±3.46%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [240] July 18, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney44%4500 LV±4.5%
We Ask America [177] July 9–10, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney40%71,227 LV±2.8%
Priorities USA Action/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group (D) [220] June 25 – July 3, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney40%9608 LV±4.0%
Quinnipiac University [55] June 19–25, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney39%61,252 RV±2.8%
Quinnipiac University [241] June 5–10, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney40%6997 RV±3.1%
Franklin & Marshall College [242] May 29 – June 4, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney36%12412 RV±4.8%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [240] May 21, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney41%6500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [243] May 17–20, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney42%8671 RV±3.8%
Quinnipiac University [62] April 25 – May 1, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney39%81,168 RV±2.9%
Morning Call/Muhlenberg College [244] March 23 – April 1, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney40%5492 RV±5%
Quinnipiac University [66] March 20–26, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney42%31,232 RV±2.8%
48% Rick Santorum 41%7
Public Policy Polling [245] March 8–11, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney42%7689 RV±4.1%
51% Newt Gingrich 39%12
47% Ron Paul 41%6
48%Rick Santorum46%2
Quinnipiac University [246] March 7–11, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney40%61,256 RV±2.8%
50%Newt Gingrich37%13
45%Ron Paul40%5
45%Rick Santorum44%1
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [240] February 8–23, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney44%1438 LV±4.5%
46%Rick Santorum40%6
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call [247] February 15–21, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney37%11625 RV±4.0%
49%Rick Santorum41%8
Franklin & Marshall College [248] February 14–20, 2012Barack Obama41%Mitt Romney33%8592 RV±4.0%
47%Newt Gingrich31%16
41%Ron Paul28%13
45%Rick Santorum37%8
Susquehanna Polling and Research [249] February 2–6, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney45%2800 RV±3.46%
Barack Obama47%Rick Santorum43%4

South Carolina

9 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 58%–41%
(Republican in 2008) 54%–45%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Reuters/Ipsos [250] January 10–13, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney46%6995 RV±3.4%

South Dakota

3 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 60%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 53%–45%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Nielson Brothers Polling [251] July 19–23, 2012 Barack Obama 43% Mitt Romney 49%6546 LV±4.19%

Tennessee

11 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 57%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 57%–42%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Vanderbilt University/Princeton Survey Research Associates International [252] May 2–9, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney47%7826 RVNot reported
Middle Tennessee State University [253] February 13–25, 2012Barack Obama40% Newt Gingrich 45%4416 LV±4.0%
41% Ron Paul 44%3
41%Mitt Romney47%6
39% Rick Santorum 51%12
Vanderbilt University/Princeton Survey Research Associates International [254] February 16–22, 2012Barack Obama41%Newt Gingrich38%31,508 RV±3%
Barack Obama39%Ron Paul40%1
39%Mitt Romney42%3
38%Rick Santorum42%4

Texas

38 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 61%–38%
(Republican in 2008) 55%–44%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov [255] May 7–13, 2012Barack Obama35%Mitt Romney55%20511±4.34%
Public Policy Polling [256] April 19–22, 2012Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney50%7591 RV±4.0%
45% Newt Gingrich 47%2
43% Ron Paul 47%4
University of Texas/Texas Tribune/YouGov [257] February 8–15, 2012Barack Obama38%Newt Gingrich49%11527 LV±4.27%
36%Mitt Romney49%13529 LV±4.26%
37% Rick Santorum 51%14
35%Ron Paul44%9
Public Policy Polling [258] January 12–15, 2012Barack Obama47%Newt Gingrich45%2700 RV±3.7%
Barack Obama40%Ron Paul46%6
47% Rick Perry 48%1
42%Mitt Romney49%7
42%Rick Santorum49%7

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Other candidates %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [258] January 12–15, 2012 Barack Obama 39% Mitt Romney 47% Gary Johnson 7%8700 RV±3.7%
Barack Obama38%Mitt Romney40% Ron Paul*17%2

Utah

6 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 72%–26%
(Republican in 2008) 62%–34%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Deseret News/KSL-TV/Dan Jones & Associates [259] June 21, 2012 Barack Obama 26% Mitt Romney 68%421,222 RV±2.8%

Vermont

3 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 59%–39%
(Democratic in 2008) 67%–30%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Castleton University [260] August 11–21, 2012Barack Obama62%Mitt Romney25%37477 RV±4.5%
WDEV/WCAX/Vermont Business Magazine/Castleton University [261] May 7–16, 2012Barack Obama59.3%Mitt Romney27.5%31.8607 RV±4.0%
Castleton University [262] February 11–22, 2012Barack Obama57%Mitt Romney31%26800 RV±3.5%
59% Rick Santorum 30%29
58% Ron Paul 28%30

Virginia

13 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 54%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 53%–46%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [263] August 23, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney47%Tied500 LV±4.5%
Public Policy Polling [264] August 16–19, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney45%5855 LV±3.4%
Purple Strategies [28] August 13–14, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney48%3600 LV±4.0%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [265] August 7, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney46%2500 LV±4.5%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University [266] July 31 – August 6, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney45%41,412 LV±2.6%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [265] July 16–17, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney46%1500 LV±4.5%
Quinnipiac University [267] July 10–16, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney44%Tied1,673 RV±2.4%
Purple Strategies [52] July 9–13, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney44%2600 LV±4.0%
Public Policy Polling [195] July 5–8, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney42%8647 RV±3.9%
Priorities USA Action/Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group [32] June 25 – July 3, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney43%3608 LV±4%
We Ask America [33] June 25, 2012Barack Obama43.3%Mitt Romney48.0%4.71,106 LV±2.95%
Virginian Pilot/Old Dominion University [268] May 16 – June 15, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney42%7776 RV±3.5%
Purple Strategies [57] May 31 – June 5, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%3600 LV±4.0%
Quinnipiac University [269] May 30 – June 4, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney42%51,282 RV±2.7%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [265] June 3, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney47%Tied500 LV±4.5%
NBC News/Marist College [270] May 17–20, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney44%41,076 RV±3.0%
Washington Post [271] April 28 – May 2, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney44%7964 RV±4%
Public Policy Polling [272] April 26–29, 2012Barack Obama53% Newt Gingrich 37%16680 RV±3.8%
50% Ron Paul 39%11
51%Mitt Romney43%8
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [265] April 23, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney45%1500 LV±4.5
Purple Strategies [63] April 19–23, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney46%2Not reported±4.1%
Roanoke College [273] March 26 – April 5, 2012Barack Obama40%Mitt Romney46%6603 A±4%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [274] March 20, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney42%9500 LV±4.5%
Quinnipiac University [275] March 13–18, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney42%81,034 RV±3.1%
54%Newt Gingrich35%19
49% Rick Santorum 40%9
49%Ron Paul39%10
NBC News/Marist College [276] February 29 – March 2, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney35%171,273 RV±2.8%
57%Newt Gingrich31%26
54%Rick Santorum32%221,245 RV
53%Ron Paul32%21
Roanoke College [277] February 13–26, 2012Barack Obama48%Newt Gingrich37%11607 A±4%
45%Rick Santorum39%6
45%Ron Paul35%10
Barack Obama42%Mitt Romney43%1
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [265] February 21, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney43%6500 LV±4.5%
51%Rick Santorum43%8
Richmond Times-Dispatch/Muhlenberg College/Christopher Newport University [278] February 4–13, 2012Barack Obama45%Newt Gingrich40%51,018 RV±3.1%
Barack Obama43%Mitt Romney46%2
Barack Obama42%Rick Santorum46%4
Barack Obama43%Ron Paul43%Tie
Quinnipiac University [279] February 1–6, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney43%41,544 RV±2.5%
51%Newt Gingrich37%14
49%Rick Santorum41%8
47%Ron Paul40%7
Mason-Dixon Polling & Research [280] January 16–18, 2012Barack Obama45%Mitt Romney44%1625 RV±3.9%
49%Newt Gingrich38%11

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Constitution Party  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Public Policy Polling [195] July 5–8, 2012 Barack Obama 49% Mitt Romney 35% Virgil Goode 9%14647±3.9%
Public Policy Polling [272] April 26–29, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney38%Virgil Goode5%12680±3.8%

Washington

12 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 53%–46%
(Democratic in 2008) 57%–40%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Moore Information [281] August 6–7, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney36%10500 LV±4%
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA [282] August 2–3, 2012Barack Obama54%Mitt Romney37%17524 LV±4.4%
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA July 16–18, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney37%9630 RV±4%
Public Policy Polling [283] June 14–17, 2012Barack Obama54%Mitt Romney41%131,073 RV±3.0%
Elway Research [284] June 13–16, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney41%8408 RV±5%
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA [285] May 8–9, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney36%14557 RV±4.2%
Public Policy Polling [286] February 16–19, 2012Barack Obama55% Newt Gingrich 35%201,264 RV±2.76%
53%Mitt Romney38%15
51% Ron Paul 38%13
52% Rick Santorum 40%12
KING-TV Seattle/SurveyUSA [287] February 13–15, 2012Barack Obama56%Newt Gingrich34%22572 RV±4.2%
50%Mitt Romney39%11
50%Ron Paul37%13
51%Rick Santorum38%13

West Virginia

5 electoral votes
(Republican in 2004) 56%–43%
(Republican in 2008) 56%–43%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
R.L. Repass & Partners [288] August 22–25, 2012Barack Obama38%Mitt Romney52%14401 LV±4.9%
R.L. Repass & Partners [289] April 25–28, 2012Barack Obama37%Mitt Romney54%17410 RV±4.8%

Wisconsin

10 electoral votes
(Democratic in 2004) 50%–49%
(Democratic in 2008) 56%–42%

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University [45] August 15–21, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney47%21,190 LV±3%
Marquette Law School [290] August 16–19, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%3576 LV±4.2%
Public Policy Polling [291] August 16–19, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney48%11,308 LV±2.7%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [292] August 15, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney48%1500 LV±4.5%
CNN/Opinion Research Corporation [293] August 13–14, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney45%4920 RV±3.0%
CBS News/New York Times/Quinnipiac University [266] July 31 – August 6, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney45%61,428±2.6%
Marquette Law School [294] August 2–5, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney45%51,188 LV±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [292] July 25, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney46%3500 LV±4.5%
We Ask America [151] July 17–18, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney42%71,162 LV±2.93%
Marquette Law School [295] July 5–8, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney43%8810 LV±3.5%
Public Policy Polling [296] July 5–8, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney44%61,057 LV±3.3%
Marquette Law School [297] June 13–16, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney43%6594 LV±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [292] June 12, 2012Barack Obama44%Mitt Romney47%3500 LV±4.5%
We Ask America [298] June 3, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney43%51,275 LV±2.75%
Marquette Law School [299] May 23–26, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney43%8600 LV±4%
St. Norbert College [300] May 17–22, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney43%6406 LV±5.0%
Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling [301] May 11–13, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney46%1851 RV±3.4%
Marquette Law School [302] May 9–12, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney46%Tied600 LV±4.1%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [292] May 9, 2012Barack Obama49%Mitt Romney45%4500 LV±4.5%
Marquette Law School [303] April 26–29, 2012Barack Obama51%Mitt Romney42%9705 RV±3.8%
Daily Kos/Public Policy Polling [304] April 13–15, 2012Barack Obama50%Mitt Romney44%61,136 RV±2.9%
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [292] March 27, 2012Barack Obama56% Newt Gingrich 31%25500 LV±4.5%
52%Mitt Romney41%11
NBC News/Marist College [305] March 22–27, 2012Barack Obama52%Mitt Romney35%171,391 RV±2.6%
51% Rick Santorum 38%13
51%Rick Santorum39%121,400 RV
51% Ron Paul 36%15
Marquette Law School [306] March 22–25, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney43%5707 RV±3.7%
51%Rick Santorum39%12
53%Newt Gingrich36%17
50%Ron Paul40%10
Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research [292] February 27, 2012Barack Obama47%Mitt Romney42%5500 LV±4.5%
46%Rick Santorum41%5
Public Policy Polling [307] February 23–26, 2012Barack Obama55%Newt Gingrich37%18900 RV±3.27%
53%Ron Paul37%16
53%Mitt Romney39%14
49%Rick Santorum43%6
Marquette Law School [308] February 16–19, 2012Barack Obama53%Mitt Romney38%15716 RV±3.7%
51%Rick Santorum40%11
56%Newt Gingrich33%23
52%Ron Paul36%16
Marquette Law School [309] January 19–22, 2012Barack Obama48%Mitt Romney40%8701 RV±3.8%

Three way race

Poll sourceDate administeredDemocrat %Republican % Libertarian  %Lead marginSample sizeMargin of error
Reason-Rupe [310] May 14–18, 2012Barack Obama46%Mitt Romney36%Gary Johnson6%10708±3.7%

See also

Notes

  1. ↑ "Capital Survey Research Center" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 14, 2012.
  2. ↑ Talbot, George (July 2, 2012). "Romney leads Obama in Alabama poll, but voters question his Mormon faith (Political Skinny)". al.
  3. ↑ "2012 Arizona: Romney vs. Obama | RealClearPolling". www.realclearpolling.com.
  4. 1 2 "Election 2012: Arizona President". www.rasmussenreports.com.
  5. ↑ "Project New America/Public Policy Polling (D)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on August 28, 2012.
  6. ↑ "Public Policy Polling" (PDF).
  7. ↑ "DC London/Magellan Strategies (R)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on May 14, 2012.
  8. ↑ "Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll" (PDF).
  9. ↑ "Poll: Obama/Romney race a toss-up in Arizona". TucsonSentinel.com.
  10. 1 2 "First Read - NBC poll: Romney, Santorum deadlocked in Michigan; Romney leads in Arizona". February 22, 2012. Archived from the original on February 22, 2012.
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  12. ↑ "Behavior Research Center (Rocky Mountain Poll)" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on September 12, 2012.
  13. ↑ "Public Policy Polling". Archived from the original on March 26, 2019. Retrieved June 22, 2022.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
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  15. ↑ "Policy Analysis for California Education/USC Rossier School of Education/Tulchin Research" (PDF).
  16. ↑ "CBRT/Pepperdine University/M4 Strategies" (PDF).
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