Munich Security Index

Overall, the Munich Security Index 2023 registers an increase in 20 risk indicators compared to the previous survey, which itself recorded significantly higher risk awareness than in the preceding year. The Russian war of aggression is the central driving force of heightened perception of risk. In all countries surveyed bar India, the risk index score for Russia rose significantly. While Russia was not seen as a top five risk in any of the G7 countries only a year ago, citizens in five G7 countries now consider Moscow the number one risk. Differences in risk perceptions between citizens in G7 countries and others are profound, however. Notwithstanding sizeable increases in the risk index scores in Brazil, China, and South Africa, Russia ranks fairly low in four BRICS countries. China continues to be a significant concern but is considered less of a threat than Russia in all countries, including Japan and the US. The wider ramifications of Russia’s war also feature prominently in citizens’ risk perceptions. An economic or financial crisis is now the aggregate number one risk, likely fueled by rampant inflation worldwide, which the Russian war has contributed to. Energy supply disruption ranks a top risk in the UK and South Africa and is considered a significant risk in most other countries. Amid Putin’s nuclear posturing, weapons of mass destruction have risen significantly in citizens’ risk awareness, with concern highest in Ukraine, Germany, and Japan. The core index dataset can be downloaded below.

While differences between G7 countries and four BRICS countries on Russia’s war abound, perceptions of environmental risks are widely shared. On aggregate, climate change ranks as the second highest risk, followed by destruction of natural habitats in third, and extreme weather and forest fires in fourth. In Brazil, India, and Italy, environmental risks top the ranking. Contrary to fears that Russia’s war on Ukraine would distract from other pressing threats, citizens continue to be acutely aware of so-called non-traditional security concerns that particularly beset poorer countries. Only a few risks have fallen in citizens’ perceptions. For instance, the risks of the coronavirus pandemic plummeted in the rankings in all countries except China – a manifestation of Beijing’s failed zero-Covid policy.

Both the Russian war and the growing systemic competition also shape citizens’ views of other countries. Russia, like its satellite Belarus, is overwhelmingly considered a threat except by China, India, and South Africa. Views among G7 countries have converged; Italy, which held positive views of Russia in the last index, now clearly sees Russia as a threat. China is also considered more of a threat than an ally in all G7 countries while viewed as more of an ally in South Africa and Brazil. Japanese and German citizens hold the most critical views of China. Compared to the last index, Ukraine is the biggest winner in perceptions as an ally. Poland’s central role in assisting Ukraine has helped it see the second biggest improvement in views, while the US continues the trend of the past edition by further improving its reputation.