The numbers of people driven out of their homes by war, natural disasters and climate change are higher than ever before.

At least 117 million people were displaced in 2023, according to UN data shared with Sky News.

The number of people forced to leave their homes in 2023 has doubled from a decade ago. And it's still rising, with the UN estimating that within the first four months of 2024 that figure went over 120 million.

Sky News' Data and Forensics team have investigated what's driving these rising numbers - from war and persecution to our changing climate...

WHAT'S FORCING PEOPLE FROM THEIR HOMES?

"Forcible displacement means that people are displaced from where they usually live," said Dr Leonie Ansems de Vries, professor of international politics and chair of the Migration Research Group at King's College London.

"That's often due to conflict, other types of violence, human rights abuses, or natural disasters and environmental degradation as well."

"It's very difficult to know exactly how many people are forcibly displaced worldwide," Dr Ansems de Vries added.

"Just looking at the way in which statistics work, different countries measure these things in different kinds of ways.

"There are huge gaps because we simply do not know who's moving and how they're moving... people may be forcefully displaced, but it doesn't mean that they will permanently settle somewhere else. They may also return."

Muhumed's home was swept away after torrential rains hit swathes of Kenya in April.

"We had to abandon our shelter after it got submerged," said Shafat, after he and his family were forced to flee their home in Dadaab Refugee camps and shelter in a school nearby.

"We picked only essential bedding and fled."

What happened to Muhumed is just one story of human suffering among the millions of those who have been forced from their homeland by disaster and conflict.

An old man sits with a child, other family members behind

This figure represents one million people.

Out of the total number of people displaced by the end of 2023...

...more than a third were refugees, displaced across international borders.

Around half were internally displaced, meaning they were forced to move from home but stayed within their country of origin.

Around 6% of the total were asylum seekers, who sought to gain legal protections and eventually refugee status in their host countries.

GRUELLING AND DEADLY JOURNEYS

"You can't get away from the fact that if climate change and extreme weather events are decimating food, livestock and crops - the ability of people to survive - then it raises tension and leads to conflict, violence and displacement," says Andrew Harper, UNHCR Special Adviser on Climate Action.

For the many who do leave, they can face gruelling and deadly journeys with no certainty of safety or stability at their destination.

Many of the countries who take in the most refugees are vulnerable themselves, with fewer resources than more developed nations.

Metal sheets in a burned clearing

The aftermath of a deadly wildfire that claimed the lives of 18 migrants in Evros, Greece

The aftermath of a deadly wildfire that claimed the lives of 18 migrants in Evros, Greece

While wealthier nations like the UK and US have much larger economies, they rank 18th and 20th in the global ranking of hosting refugees, trailing behind many less-developed countries.  

Data illustrates that many refugees were hosted in low, middle-income and less-developed countries. "Countries that are often more vulnerable or have fewer resources, we often find to be more hospitable and more humanitarian minded," Andrew Harper, UNHCR Special Adviser on Climate Action.  

"When you have rich countries complaining about the burden, think about countries like Chad, Jordan, Ethiopia or Kenya, who are also suffering from climate change but are also not complaining about why people are coming across," Harper added.

Sudan, in northeast Africa, is one of the countries that has produced the highest number of refugees, as indicated in dark purple on the map.

Over 600,000 people who fled the brutal civil war are now refugees in neighbouring Chad.

Nearly seven in 10 refugees were hosted by neighbouring countries in 2023.

Most notable are Iran and Turkey, seen in dark green on the map, which have seen huge numbers arrive from neighbouring Afghanistan and Syria respectively.

"I came with my two little girls. We travelled on foot and by mule."

Yosmary is a refugee and single mum. She was forced to leave her home in Venezuela, where economic collapse, food shortage and the breakdown of healthcare systems has left nearly eight million people displaced.

She and her children travelled hundreds of miles to reach Colombia from Venezuela, where at times she has had to sleep on the street to make ends meet.

"Arriving in Colombia was a little hard because I am a single mother… but I also found good people who helped me, gave me food and took care of me, and the shelters too."

Now, Yosmary lives with two other mothers, who are also refugees. Between them, they support each other, sharing rent, energy costs and helping with childcare.

She has been supported by ActionAid/Alianza por la Solidaridad, an international charity which supports women and girls.

A woman with dark hair wearing a pink shirt looks out of frame from left to right

Pic: Laura Rios / ActionAid

Pic: Laura Rios / ActionAid

CLIMATE MAKING BAD SITUATIONS WORSE

While conflict and economic instability are significant drivers of displacement, the world's changing climate is making crises caused by conflict and instability worse.

Last year replaced 2016 as the warmest year on record with global air surface temperatures approaching 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. What's more, the World Meteorological Organization says over the next four years temperatures will be between 1.1C and 1.9C higher than pre-industrial levels.

The UNHCR warns that without immediate action, climate change will increasingly and disproportionately affect vulnerable states and communities, including people forcibly displaced.

A crowd walks along a road in the heat, one carries a cross

"The majority of the people in displacement, refugees, internally displaced people from conflict and disaster are people that live in some of the most squalid living conditions on the planet," Manuel Marques Pereira from the International Organization for Migration says.

"The vulnerabilities and the exposure to climate hazards are very high," said Pereira.

'Heat and humidity and desertification make areas uninhabitable'

The colours on the map indicate how vulnerable each country is to climate-related disasters.

The circles indicate the numbers of displaced people.

The red striped areas show which countries are impacted by conflict.

'THEY WERE FORCED TO MOVE AGAIN'

At the end of 2023, almost 75% of displaced people were living in countries with high to extreme exposure of climate-related hazards.

Andrew Harper from UNHCR witnessed this when he visited Somalia and its borders with Kenya and Ethiopia.

"Fighting between terrorist groups and the government forced initial displacement. Then people were forced to move again because of drought. Then they were hit again by floods."

By 2040, the countries who are hosting almost all forcibly displaced people today will face high to extreme exposure to climate related hazards.

"Heat and humidity and desertification make areas uninhabitable," Mr Harper said. "And what choices do people have? They'll have to move."

"We know the areas are going to be impacted. So rather than having short-term, humanitarian emergency fixes, what we need to be doing is investing in climate smart agriculture."

CREDITS

Reporting: Saywah Mahmood, data journalist, Michelle Inez-Simon, visual investigations producer

Production: Mary Poynter, Michael Drummond

Editing: Serena Kutchinsky, assistant editor, Chris Howard, Output Editor (data and forensics)

Design: Phoebe Roewe, Giorgio Tonella

Pictures: Reuters, Associated Press, Laura Rios/ActionAid, UN