New InfluenceMap analysis finds a surge in online advertising from the fossil fuel industry following the Biden-Harris administration's decision to pause Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export approvals. Major industry groups like the American Petroleum Institute (API) and Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA) have spent upwards of $140K on over 100 ads advocating for US LNG since the pause was announced in January 2024, generating over 8.5 million impressions.
InfluenceMap identified the API, American Exploration and Production Council (AXPC), TXOGA, US Chamber of Commerce (US Chamber), and the PAGE Coalition as major spenders on LNG advertising in recent months. Analysis of expenditure patterns and LNG-related mentions on the Meta ad library since July 2023 finds that in the months preceding the pause, these groups did not run any ads on LNG, possibly indicating a concerted effort by industry to influence public opinion after the announcement.
The ads from industry propagate various narratives around LNG's environmental benefits and geopolitical significance, claims that may be misleading according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and other scientific bodies. According to data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM), in 2023, the US was the world's largest exporter of LNG. Much of the industry’s advertising on this issue promotes LNG as a climate solution, claiming that it displaces coal and reduces global emissions while insisting that opposition to LNG is unscientific and politically motivated. Additionally, many of the ads suggest that LNG ensures domestic and geopolitical security, arguing that the pause threatens domestic job security and strengthens adversaries abroad.
Industry ads on LNG frequently commend or condemn US policymakers, depending on their alignment with industry interests, and are distributed in states that may be instrumental in determining the outcome of the federal election such as Pennsylvania, California, Texas, Florida, and New York, as well as Washington DC. The review announced in January 2024 is set to continue until Q1 2025 under a Biden presidency. The ultimate outcome of US policy on LNG will likely be determined by the November 2024 elections.
Alongside an advertising strategy, the API, AXPC, TXOGA, and US Chamber have persistently advocated against the pause through various channels including direct engagement with policymakers. These groups represent companies which, together, account for over 65% of US export capacity through the Sabine Pass LNG Terminal, Corpus Christi LNG Terminal, Cameron LNG Terminal, and Elba Island LNG Terminal. A joint letter to the US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm, signed by all four organizations along with several other major industry groups, claimed that the move was “undermining global climate goals” and cited the need for fossil gas in coal-to-gas switching. In reality, the IPCC and IEA state that reducing fossil gas dependence, including LNG, is essential to meeting global climate goals.
For this briefing, InfluenceMap analyzed publicly available data from the Meta ad library, identifying ads related to LNG shown across Facebook and Instagram between July 2023 and May 2024. The analysis included information on ad spend, impressions, and the geographic locations where the ads were shown. These results were then compared to ads from the same groups during the preceding four months to assess changes in advertising strategies and outreach.
On January 26th, 2024, the Biden-Harris Administration announced a temporary halt in pending liquefied natural gas (LNG) export approvals. The decision came after a Cornell study revealed that methane emissions from LNG may be severely underestimated, and was meant to grant time for the Department of Energy (DOE) to update underlying analyses for LNG export license approvals, including the “market need” for LNG, the climate impact of methane, and the health effects of export terminals on frontline communities, as stated by the Administration.
According to data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM), in 2023, the US was the world's largest exporter of LNG. The country has developed significant LNG infrastructure, with 45 projects across 8 terminals currently in operation contributing to a total capacity of 92.9 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG, with another 336.9 MTPA in development (both “planned” and “under construction”). The paused projects represent 88.9 MTPA of proposed export capacity, equivalent to one-quarter of all LNG export capacity in development in the US and one-tenth of global capacity.
In its opposition to the pause, the oil and gas industry in the US and abroad has cited concerns over European energy security and the need to reduce dependence on Russian gas. Several industry groups including the US Chamber of Commerce (US Chamber) and the American Petroleum Institute (API) have emphasized the importance of US LNG exports in countering Russian influence and maintaining global energy security. These responses disregard the science-based policy guidance of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to limit global temperature rise to as close to 1.5°C as possible.
Despite industry claims, GEM states that the pause will have minimal impact on near-term US LNG exports and Europe’s energy security. Only 14% of potential capacity additions over the next three years are affected by the pause. US LNG export capacity is still expected to increase by more than half during this period, and Europe’s gas demand is forecast to decline, driven by improved energy efficiency and increased renewable energy deployment.
There has been some notable pushback against the industry’s tactics. In a June 5th speech, UN Secretary-General António Guterres labeled fossil fuel companies as the "godfathers of climate chaos" and urged all countries to ban their advertising. Guterres called on advertising and PR companies to stop enabling "planetary destruction" through fossil fuel ads. He highlighted World Meteorological Organization data showing an 80% chance that global temperatures will exceed 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels within the next five years, with recent months already surpassing this threshold.
Following the Biden-Harris Administration's pause on LNG exports, InfluenceMap analysis reveals an exponential increase in online advertising from the US oil and gas sector promoting LNG. The timely surge in spending may indicate an industry strategy to influence public opinion on the necessity of LNG.
InfluenceMap analyzed Meta ad library data from July 2023 and identified five groups1 advertising heavily in support of US LNG:
None of the five groups appeared to run any online ads specifically referencing LNG in the six months preceding the pause; following the announcement, they collectively spent upwards of $140,000 on over 100 ads promoting US LNG, generating over 8.5 million impressions.
The API, AXPC, and TXOGA are all industry associations representing the oil and gas sector. While API and AXPC advocate widely on federal-level climate policy and energy transition issues, TXOGA largely focuses on the energy transition in Texas.
The PAGE coalition, comprised of Enbridge, EQT Corporation, TC Energy, and Williams Companies, appears to advocate for the interests of the fossil fuel industry. Presenting itself as pro-climate, the coalition states that it aims to promote policies that “protect the climate through natural gas production” However, this stance contradicts the position of the IPCC, which highlights significant concerns with coal-to-gas switching, notably that the increased risk of methane emissions associated with gas production and the potential for large cumulative emissions from new gas power plants to offset early carbon intensity reductions.
The US Chamber is self-described as the largest business organization in the world and presents itself as a cross-sector entity representing businesses across the United States. However, previous InfluenceMap analysis has found that the group’s climate policy engagement generally reflects the interests of its fossil fuel members and is most similar in climate policy engagement to organizations like the API.
The five groups spent between $7K (US Chamber) and $100K (API) on LNG advertising, as noted in the bullets above. As such, the three largest spenders on LNG advertising were the API (by a significant margin), AXPC, and TXOGA. Below, graphs for these three groups show how they also increased their overall, general spending on Meta advertising following the pause2, meaning their budget for all Meta advertising expanded in addition to their spend on LNG specifically.
Click on a group’s name below to see the graph.
While the API did increase its overall ad spending following the pause, the results for this group aren't as striking as those of its peers, likely due to heavy expenditure on its "Lights On" campaign. The "Lights On" campaign, advocating for ‘energy independence,’ has been ongoing since January 11—before the announcement—and constitutes a notable portion of API's overall ad spending.
This analysis considers a collection of strategy documents detailing the International Gas Union's (IGU) communications, advocacy, and outreach playbooks. IGU describes itself as “the spokesperson for the gas industry worldwide”. It has 150+ members including Shell, TotalEnergies, Sempra Energy, and...
As of this briefing’s release, the API, US Chamber, and TXOGA appear to have concluded a number of online ad campaigns on LNG. However, AXPC has six active ads, while the PAGE Coalition has over 90. (Expenditure and impressions figures for AXPC and PAGE exclude numbers form ads that are still active, since they are subject to change. Total spending for this period will likely increase as active ads complete their cycle, especially for the PAGE Coalition, as the majority of the group’s ads are currently active).
1 InfluenceMap's LobbyMap database tracks and assesses the climate policy engagement of over 250 of the world's most influential industry associations. See Appendix for more details on data collection for this analysis.
2 The apparent delay of a few weeks between the announcement and the surge could possibly be attributed to the time required for groups to plan and produce their advertising material and strategies.
On July 3rd, US Federal Judge James Cain from Louisiana ruled in favor of 16 states and issued a preliminary injunction against the pause on LNG exports. The arguments Cain put forth, which deemphasized environmental concerns raised by the Administration and insisted that economic security would be undermined, were not dissimilar to the narratives pushed by the industry through its advertising.
Previously, a December 2022 InfluenceMap report analyzed documents from the International Gas Union (IGU) detailing how the industry developed a global messaging playbook of regionally specific communication strategies to promote fossil gas based on the “environmental consciousness” of the market. This strategy emerged as a response to global concern on climate change which the IGU described as “potentially existential for the global natural gas value chain.” The groups highlighted in this briefing appear to have taken a similar approach, continuing to promote LNG as a bridge fuel that can support the clean energy transition despite IPCC warnings to the contrary.
Ads from the five groups presented various narratives advocating for LNG and criticizing the administration's decision. The graphic below categorizes five common claims into two subcategories: insisting that LNG has environmental benefits and suggesting that the LNG pause compromises domestic and geopolitical security.
The foldouts below fact check each claim, demonstrating that industry opposition to the LNG pause conflicts with IPCC scientific recommendations. Each claim is illustrated with at least one example ad. The ads appeared in three formats: static posts with text, short videos with text overlay or interview snippets with executives, and posts endorsing local representatives.
Many ads claim that fossil gas reduces emissions in the US, and as such it can be a climate solution exported to allies. Ads state that the pause would mean hindering opportunities for allies to reduce their own emissions.
While LNG has a lower carbon intensity than other fossil fuels, it is still fundamentally fossil gas, and is predominantly composed of methane. Methane, when used as a fuel, produces GHG emissions, including methane itself, a greenhouse gas with a warming effect 86 times greater than carbon dioxide over a 20-year period according to the IPCC's 2013 Climate Change Report on the Physical Science Basis. The routine release of methane during the production, processing, transportation, and storage of fossil gas exacerbates its impact. The IPCC underlines that reductions in methane emissions would reduce the global warming effect. Furthermore, the IEA reports that global methane emissions from the energy sector are around 70% greater than officially reported by national governments. Moreover, a study from Cornell University that is currently under peer review suggests that LNG may not be cleaner than coal. The study which, allegedly, had some influence on the Biden Administration’s decisions, highlighted that previous research on LNG's climate impacts failed to account for CO2 emissions associated with the liquefaction process, which chills the gas to extremely cold temperatures.
Even if it’s assumed LNG produces fewer emissions compared to coal, its role in mitigating climate change is limited. The International Energy Agency (IEA) states that no new natural gas fields are needed beyond those already under development and that fossil gas trade is expected to decline significantly in the Net-Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario. Additionally, the decline in global natural gas demand after 2030 indicates a shift away from reliance on gas, with more emphasis placed on alternative energy sources like hydrogen produced with Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Storage (CCUS).
Hence, LNG, being a fossil gas, still ultimately contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, and its benefits over coal are not conclusively established.
Industry argues that the decision to halt LNG exports is politically motivated, implying that it is driven by ulterior motives rather than legitimate environmental or economic concerns.
Dismissing the Administration’s pause as a purely political maneuver diverts attention from its real climate implications. Substantial scientific evidence supports a reevaluation of LNG exports. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has emphasized the urgent need for emissions reduction, particularly from high-emission sources like LNG, and has advocated for transitioning away from natural gas as part of broader climate mitigation efforts.
Some ads suggest that climate goals would be compromised by the pause, as reduced LNG supply would result in nations opting for coal to meet their own energy demands.
According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), coal consumption for power generation in the EU is projected to plummet by 44 percent below 2022 levels by 2026, with total coal consumption anticipated to plummet by 64 percent by 2030. The IEA also forecasts a decline in coal usage in China by 2024, reaching a plateau by 2026.
This further highlights the futility of the push for US LNG exports targeting Europe, given geopolitical factors like the Russian invasion of Ukraine and, as mentioned above, Europe’s shift towards renewables and reducing reliance on Russian gas.
Regarding exports to Asia, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reveals the majority of LNG exports to Asia have gone to Japan, South Korea, and other places, rather than to China and India, the two largest consumers of coal globally, accounting for over 65% of coal consumption globally. According to data from Global Energy Monitor (GEM), they are also the only countries in Asia, to have built new coal plants in 2023 (with exception of Indonesia and Laos). Therefore, the idea that reducing LNG availability will drive coal use in these countries appears weak.
The IPCC stresses the urgent need to decrease overall fossil fuel usage, including coal, and transition to renewable energy to combat climate change effectively. While reducing LNG supply might lead to shifts in energy sources, the IPCC underscores the imperative of reducing fossil fuel dependency and embracing renewables to meet emission targets. Growth in renewables, as evidenced by wind and solar energy becoming primary sources of electricity in EU countries, indicates a pathway toward reducing coal dependence globally.
Ads claim that jobs will be at risk if LNG exports are paused, reflecting the fossil fuel industry's consistent position regarding the apparent likelihood of negative economic impacts of reducing fossil fuel operations.
The IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report stresses the need to transition away from fossil fuels, including natural gas, to mitigate climate change. While this shift is expected to impact job security in related industries, the transition to renewable energy sources like solar and wind power could create new employment opportunities, potentially offsetting job losses in the LNG sector. Furthermore, the IPCC highlights that continued fossil fuel production, including LNG, contributes to greenhouse gas emissions, exacerbating climate change and ultimately undermining long-term job security.
This claim emphasizes the role of LNG in ensuring energy security in Europe, facilitating the region's independence from Russian influence. Ads argue that halting LNG exports would prompt allies in Europe and Asia to depend more on Russia and Iran, thereby strengthening adversaries.
According to Chapter 6 of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, reducing the production and supply of fossil gas will instead encourage investments in renewable energy infrastructure. A recent update from the EU Council, as of March 2024, underscored the EU's determination to diminish energy dependencies while amplifying efforts towards renewable energy development. Notably, the document explicitly labels the transition away from Russian energy as an irreversible process. While Europe is currently the largest customer for US LNG, with the EU having instituted a new target of 42.5% renewable energy by 2030, the decision to pause LNG export license approvals seems poised to expedite the shift towards renewables. An analysis conducted by Ember on data on electricity generation in the EU revealed that renewables had supplanted traditional sources in 2022, with wind and solar generating a greater proportion of electricity (22%) than both fossil gas (20%) and coal (16%). This shift highlights the EU governments' strengthened commitment to achieving renewable energy targets.
Industry commentary on US policymakers in LNG-related advertising could signal an electoral strategy aimed at shaping public opinion ahead of major US elections. The following chart shows the distribution of LNG ads from the industry groups identified in the previous section, excluding TXOGA (which appears to show ads solely in the state of Texas, and as such would not offer any insight if accounted for in this analysis). The most frequently observed locations for these ads are highlighted below:
It is worth highlighting that the API and the US Chamber accounted for over three-quarters of the 8.5 million+ impressions from the five groups analyzed. Since the US Chamber’s ads were distributed only in Washington, D.C., Maryland, and Virginia, impressions were heavily skewed toward this region.
While groups advertising on Meta cannot manually distribute ads to specific states, they can select categories to include or exclude in their ad targeting, such as the recipient's occupation and location. This allows the groups to ensure that most of their ads are shown (or not shown) in specific states by selecting which states to include or exclude. Consequently, more ads are distributed to the states chosen for inclusion, and no ads are distributed to those chosen for exclusion.
The selection of these locations for ad campaigns could be tied to demographic considerations and/or political dynamics:
Maryland houses DC and is home to the Cove Point LNG Terminal, the first LNG export facility on the East Coast.
Virginia borders D.C. and plays a significant role in the East Coast natural gas supply chain, with extensive infrastructure supporting fossil gas distribution, particularly benefiting the neighboring state of Maryland’s LNG-related operations.
Arizona5, Michigan, and Pennsylvania are swing states in the 2024 presidential election, which will determine federal policies on LNG export.
Colorado may be a priority for LNG ads due to its representatives pushing legislation to phase out all new oil and gas drilling by 2030. A substantial proportion of API’s advertising that did not mention “LNG” explicitly appeared to be targeting representatives in Colorado, potentially as a direct response to this legislation.
InfluenceMap has consistently documented industry efforts to shape public opinion alongside its climate policy engagement. An exponential increase in industry advertising on LNG following the Administration’s pause on exports may include efforts to influence public sentiment in key regions before the 2024 elections. In the lead-up to the 2024 elections, Donald Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee, maintains unwavering support for fossil fuels and skepticism toward renewable energy, particularly wind power. A victory for Trump could see a reversal of Biden Administration environmental policies, including the pause on LNG export approvals, with Trump pledging to undo the pause and approve export terminals at a rally immediately after the announcement.
5 Arizona had the 15th most impressions - it is not shown in the States with Most Impressions figure above
In addition to online advertising, InfluenceMap has identified a wide range of other policy engagement tactics employed by these industry associations following the pause, from direct engagement with policymakers to public relations efforts through press releases.
The table below captures InfluenceMap's assessment of the five industry associations. Each entity’s Organization Score indicates the extent to which its overall policy engagement is science-aligned, with a score below 50 indicating that the entity's engagement is increasingly misaligned (see methodology for more details). Engagement Intensity measures how actively an entity is engaged on climate policy. The final column offers some examples of recent positioning on LNG and fossil fuels more broadly.
| Entity | Organization Score | Engagement Intensity | LNG Ad Spend (Jan – May 2024) | Additional Advocacy against LNG Pause | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| API | 29% | 53% | $100,000+ | In a Fortune article from February 2024, API CEO Mike Sommers criticized the Biden Administration's decision to pause LNG export license approvals, referring to it as a “shortsighted political gimmick” that is a “clear win” for Russia. | |
| AXPC | 32% | 16% | $8500+ | In a March 2024 House Energy and Commerce Committee press release, AXPC CEO Anne Bradbury urged President Biden to lift the pause on pending LNG export approvals. | |
| TXOGA | 21% | 10% | $9000+ | In a February 2024 press release, TXOGA President Todd Staples opposed the Biden Administration's decision to pause LNG export license approvals. Citing a self-published report, he stated that the administration's claim of reducing energy prices is “baseless.” | |
| US Chamber | 33% | 43% | $7000+ | In a March 2024 joint letter to US Secretary of Energy Jennifer Granholm, the Chamber called on the Biden Administration to reverse its decision to pause liquefied natural gas (LNG) export permits until the Department of Energy updates its public interest approval process for pending LNG export applications. | |
| PAGE Coalition* | Enbridge | 49% | 35% | $8000+ | In a January 2024 letter to the US Department of Energy, the PAGE Coalition advocated against any moratorium on LNG export approvals and supported transitioning from coal to natural gas. The group cited the conflict in Ukraine to emphasize the importance of US fossil gas in Europe for enhancing energy security and reducing dependence on Russian gas. |
| EQT Corporation | 40% | 13% | |||
| TC Energy | 42% | 27% | |||
| Williams Companies | 38% | 19% | |||
*PAGE Coalition is made up of the four companies listed above and is currently not scored in InfluenceMap’s database as a separate entity.
The following table lists companies that are highly involved in US-based LNG export projects, detailing their affiliations and the strength of their relationships with the aforementioned industry associations6. The column on the far right provides a breakdown of ongoing projects each company is involved in, showing each project's share of the total export capacity from active and under-construction LNG projects in North America, based on data from Global Energy Monitor.
| Company | IM Org Score | API | AXPC | TXOGA | US Chamber | PAGE | LNG Terminal (% of Total US Export Capacity) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheniere Energy | 50% | Member | - | Member | - | - | Sabine Pass (17.68%), Corpus Christi (8.99%) + (6.88%, Under Construction) |
| ConocoPhillips | 38% | Member | Board Member | Board Member | Board Member | - | Port Arthur (8.09%, Under Construction) |
| Enbridge | 49% | Member | - | - | - | ✓ | -* |
| EQT Corporation | 40% | - | Board Member | - | Member | ✓ | -† |
| ExxonMobil | 46% | Board Member | - | Member | Member | - | Golden Pass (10.84%, Under Construction) |
| Kinder Morgan | 39% | - | - | Board Member | - | - | Elba Island (1.50%) |
| Sempra Energy | 49% | Board Member | - | Member | Board Member | - | Cameron (8.09%), Port Arthur (8.09%, Under Construction), |
| TC Energy | 42% | Committee Member | - | - | - | ✓ | -* |
| Total Energies | 59% | - | - | Member | - | - | Rio Grande (10.55%, Under Construction), Cameron (8.09%) |
| Williams Companies Inc | 38% | Member | - | - | - | ✓ | -* |
*While these companies do not have ownership over any LNG export projects in the US, they own several major interstate pipelines that are responsible for transporting fossil gas across the US from sources to suppliers.
†While EQT Corporation also does not own any LNG export projects in the US, it is the largest producer of fossil gas in the US and will become the owner and operator of the Mountain Valley Pipeline through its acquisition of Equitrans Midstream Corporation, announced in March 2024. The deal is expected to close in Q4 of 2024.
The graphic below clarifies the relationships from the table above, demonstrating some of the companies that are represented by these industry groups as well as the major projects over which they share ownership.
6 As PAGE is not currently monitored in InfluenceMap’s system, the column indicating PAGE’s members only has a checkmark to denote membership, instead of a relationship indicator.
Using data gathered directly from the Meta ad library, InfluenceMap's analysis explored expenditure patterns on ads in the US from July 2023 to end of May 2024, at first focusing on the 11 industry associations representing the oil and gas sector covered under InfluenceMap’s LobbyMap database. The ads were filtered for the terms “liquefied natural gas” and "LNG" to gain insight into spending on ads relevant to this topic. The American Petroleum Institute (API), American Exploration & Production Council (AXPC), and Texas Oil & Gas Association (TXOGA) were identified as the largest spenders among these entities.
InfluenceMap conducted further analysis by performing two sets of manual searches within the Meta Ad library. The first search scoped the individual index pages (containing all current and previous ads posted on Meta technologies) for US-based industry associations representing the oil and gas sector currently tracked in InfluenceMap’s database. This confirmed what the the automated search had established, that the three groups identified above were the main advertisers.
The next search sifted through the entire ad library, filtering for ads specifically mentioning “LNG” or “Liquefied Natural Gas.” This approach offered two primary benefits:
This search expanded beyond oil and gas industry associations assessed by InfluenceMap and as such identified two other entities advocating against the LNG pause that were initially not captured: the US Chamber of Commerce and the PAGE Coalition (Partnership to Address Global Emissions). Upon identifying these five groups, a final search scanned the organizations’ individual ad libraries which list all their active and historic ads. These were manually searched in order to identify a final, comprehensive set of ads containing LNG terms and/or LNG imagery.
All groups except the PAGE coalition also increased their overall advertising spend following announcement of the pause, accompanying their surge in LNG advertising. While PAGE is an exception, InfluenceMap found that the group ran more than twice as many ads from January to May 2024 (110 ads, with 99 still active during the analysis and thus not fully accounted for) compared to the six months prior to the pause (43 ads). Its spike in LNG advertising indicates a shift in strategy, while not in budget.
As of this briefing’s release, the API, US Chamber, and TXOGA appear to have concluded their online ad campaigns on LNG, while AXPC and the PAGE Coalition still have active campaigns. As InfluenceMap anlayis focused on ads which had run and concluded by May 1st, expenditure and impressions figures for AXPC and PAGE exclude numbers from ads that were active, are currently active, or have newly been launched after this date.
