2016 United States presidential election in Nevada
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The 2016 United States presidential election in Nevada was held on Tuesday, November 8, 2016, as part of the 2016 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Nevada voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, businessman Donald Trump (and his running mate Indiana Governor Mike Pence), against the Democratic Party's nominee, former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (and her running mate Virginia Senator Tim Kaine). Nevada has six votes in the Electoral College.[1]
Clinton won the state with 47.92% of the vote, while Trump won 45.5%, which represents a tight margin between the two. Clinton's vote share marked a considerable decline from the vote shares Barack Obama got from the state in 2008 and 2012. With his overall victory in the presidential election, Trump became the first Republican since William Howard Taft in 1908 to win the presidency without Nevada, and the first since William McKinley in 1900 to do so without carrying Washoe County.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic caucuses
[edit]
The 2016 Nevada Democratic caucuses took place on February 20 in the U.S. state of Nevada, traditionally marking the Democratic Party's third nominating contest in their series of presidential primaries ahead of the 2016 presidential election.
With all other candidates having dropped out of the race ahead of the Nevada caucuses, the two remaining candidates were Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton.[2]
Process
[edit]Of the total number of 43 delegates the Nevada Democratic Party may send to the 2016 Democratic National Convention, 35 are pledged and 8 are unpledged.
The delegate selection process is a system with three levels:
- The first step in the delegate selection process were the precinct caucuses on February 20, which elected about 12,000 delegates to the county conventions.
- At the county conventions on April 2, the county delegates selected about 4,000 delegates to the state convention.
- At the state convention on May 14–15, the final 35 pledged delegates to the National Convention will be selected. 23 of them are allocated proportionally based on congressional district results, whereas the remaining 12 are allocated based on the state convention as a whole.
A majority of participants at the February caucuses supported Hillary Clinton. However, the county conventions on April 2, 2016, resulted in more Sanders delegates than Clinton delegates being sent to the state convention in May.
Debates and forums
[edit]October 2015 debate in Las Vegas
On October 13, 2015, the Democratic Party's first debate was held at the Wynn Hotel in Las Vegas. Hosted by Anderson Cooper, it aired on CNN and was broadcast on radio by Westwood One. Participants were the candidates Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders, Jim Webb, Martin O'Malley, and Lincoln Chafee. It was the only debate appearance of Chafee and Webb, who ended their campaigns on October 23 and October 20, respectively.
February 2016 forum in Las Vegas
On February 18, MSNBC and Telemundo hosted a forum in Las Vegas.
Caucus Results
[edit]| Nevada Democratic caucuses, February 20, 2016 | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Candidate | County delegates | Estimated delegates | |||
| Count | Percentage | Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |
| Hillary Clinton | 6,440 | 52.64% | 20 | 4 | 24 |
| Bernie Sanders | 5,785 | 47.29% | 15 | 1 | 16 |
| Uncommitted | 8 | 0.07% | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| Total | 12,233 | 100% | 35 | 8 | 43 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
County Conventions
[edit]The County Conventions were marked by bickering between Clinton and Sanders supporters, most notably in Clark County,[3] which had been won by Clinton during the caucuses and led to the attempted arrest of the head of the credentials committee, Sanders supporter Christine Kramar, after the Clinton supporters on the Clark County Democratic committee attempted to depose her from her position. Kramar had discovered that the Clark County Democratic Party had been having private correspondence with only Clinton's campaign, as opposed to both campaigns.
The results statewide goes as follows:[4] Sanders 3846 (55.23%) Clinton 2124 (44.77%)
Sanders won most of the northern counties in Nevada, including Washoe County, and Clinton won most of the southern counties, including Clark County.
State Convention
[edit]The state convention was held in May as the final stage of the delegate selection process. Supports of Senator Sanders were angered when Party officials declined to accept the credentials of close to 60 pro-Sanders delegates. Nevada Democratic Party Chairwoman, Roberta Lange, allegedly received numerous death threats and threats to the lives of her family and grandchildren; a criminal investigation has yet to confirm these claims or the identities of those allegedly involved. At the convention, Sanders supporters protested until the staff cancelled the event.[5][6] The event was later criticized as being violent, although there is no evidence that violence occurred.[7]
Despite charges by Sanders supporters that the convention was rigged against their candidate, according to Jon Ralston,[6] "the facts reveal that the Sanders folks disregarded rules, then when shown the truth, attacked organizers and party officials as tools of a conspiracy to defraud the senator of what was never rightfully his in the first place."[6][8] After Sanders campaign Chair Jeff Weaver repeated assertions of process-rigging by Democratic Party officials, Politifact examined the evidence and concluded that, while the Party's selection process was "arcane" and "incredibly confusing", the fact is that "Clinton’s supporters simply turned out (attended the Convention) in larger numbers and helped her solidify her delegate lead." Moreover, according to Politifact: "There’s no clear evidence the state party 'hijacked' the process or ignored 'regular procedure.'"[9]
The Nevada Democratic Party wrote to the Democratic National Committee accusing Sanders supporters of having a "penchant for extra-parliamentary behavior — indeed, actual violence — in place of democratic conduct in a convention setting."[10] Sanders responded by denouncing the alleged use of violence while asserting that they were not treated with "fairness and respect" in a statement.[10]
In a TV segment, comedian Samantha Bee reported on the fracas,[11][12] as did Last Week Tonight with John Oliver[13] and Late Night with Seth Meyers in "A Closer Look" segment.[14]
Republican caucus
[edit]
Delegates from Nevada to the Republican National Convention were allocated proportionally based on the caucus results.
 | This section should include a summary of Nevada Republican caucuses, 2016. (April 2016) |
| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 34,531 | 45.75% | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Marco Rubio | 17,940 | 23.77% | 7 | 0 | 7 |
| Ted Cruz | 16,079 | 21.30% | 6 | 0 | 6 |
| Ben Carson | 3,619 | 4.79% | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| John Kasich | 2,709 | 3.59% | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Invalid | 266 | 0.35% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rand Paul (withdrawn) | 170 | 0.23% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jeb Bush (withdrawn) | 64 | 0.08% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Christie (withdrawn) | 50 | 0.07% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Carly Fiorina (withdrawn) | 22 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Mike Huckabee (withdrawn) | 21 | 0.03% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Rick Santorum (withdrawn) | 11 | 0.01% | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Jim Gilmore (withdrawn) | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Unprojected delegates: | 0 | 0 | 0 | ||
| Total: | 75,482 | 100.00% | 30 | 0 | 30 |
| Source: The Green Papers | |||||
General election
[edit]Polling
[edit]From the first poll conducted in May 2016, and throughout the summer, the race was a complete tossup with neither Clinton nor Trump having a large lead. Clinton won most polls in the summer by 1-2 points. From late September till October 20, Clinton won or tied in every poll. On October 20, Trump won a poll 47% to 44%. The race was neck and neck until election day, with neither candidate taking a significant lead. The average of the final 3 polls had Clinton up 45.6% to 45% for Trump.[15]
Predictions
[edit]The following are final 2016 predictions from various organizations for Nevada as of Election Day.
| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[16] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| Los Angeles Times[17] | Lean D | November 6, 2016 |
| CNN[18] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Rothenberg Political Report[19] | Tilt D | November 7, 2016 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[20] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| NBC[21] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| RealClearPolitics[22] | Tossup | November 8, 2016 |
| Fox News[23] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
| ABC[24] | Lean D | November 7, 2016 |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | Hillary Clinton | 539,260 | 47.92% | |
| Republican | Donald Trump | 512,058 | 45.50% | |
| Libertarian | Gary Johnson | 37,384 | 3.29% | |
| None of these candidates | 28,863 | 2.54% | ||
| Constitution | Darrell Castle | 5,268 | 0.46% | |
| Reform | Rocky de la Fuente | 2,552 | 0.23% | |
| Total votes | 1,125,385 | 100.00% | ||
By county
[edit]| County | Hillary Clinton Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Carson City | 9,610 | 38.42% | 13,125 | 52.47% | 2,281 | 9.11% | -3,515 | -14.05% | 25,016 |
| Churchill | 2,210 | 20.20% | 7,830 | 71.59% | 898 | 8.21% | -5,620 | -51.39% | 10,938 |
| Clark | 402,227 | 52.43% | 320,057 | 41.72% | 44,872 | 5.85% | 82,170 | 10.71% | 767,156 |
| Douglas | 8,454 | 30.32% | 17,415 | 62.45% | 2,016 | 7.23% | -8,961 | -32.13% | 27,885 |
| Elko | 3,401 | 18.33% | 13,551 | 73.02% | 1,607 | 8.65% | -10,510 | -54.69% | 18,559 |
| Esmeralda | 65 | 15.37% | 329 | 77.78% | 29 | 6.85% | -264 | -62.41% | 423 |
| Eureka | 74 | 8.67% | 723 | 84.66% | 57 | 6.67% | -649 | -75.99% | 854 |
| Humboldt | 1,386 | 21.55% | 4,521 | 70.28% | 526 | 8.17% | -3,135 | -48.73% | 6,433 |
| Lander | 403 | 16.70% | 1,828 | 75.76% | 182 | 7.54% | -1,425 | -59.06% | 2,413 |
| Lincoln | 285 | 13.37% | 1,671 | 78.38% | 176 | 8.25% | -1,386 | -65.01% | 2,132 |
| Lyon | 6,146 | 25.86% | 16,005 | 67.36% | 1,611 | 6.78% | -9,856 | -41.50% | 23,762 |
| Mineral | 637 | 31.90% | 1,179 | 59.04% | 181 | 9.06% | -542 | -27.14% | 1,997 |
| Nye | 5,094 | 26.00% | 13,324 | 68.00% | 1,177 | 6.00% | -8,230 | -42.00% | 19,595 |
| Pershing | 430 | 21.70% | 1,403 | 70.79% | 149 | 7.51% | -973 | -49.09% | 1,982 |
| Storey | 752 | 29.40% | 1,616 | 63.17% | 190 | 7.43% | -864 | -33.77% | 2,558 |
| Washoe | 97,379 | 46.39% | 94,758 | 45.14% | 17,772 | 8.47% | 2,621 | 1.25% | 209,909 |
| White Pine | 707 | 18.74% | 2,723 | 72.17% | 343 | 9.09% | -2,016 | -53.43% | 3,773 |
| Totals | 539,260 | 47.92% | 512,058 | 45.50% | 74,067 | 6.58% | 27,202 | 2.42% | 1,125,385 |
By congressional district
[edit]Clinton and Trump each won 2 of the state's 4 congressional districts, with Trump carrying a district that elected a Democrat in the same cycle.[26]
| District | Trump | Clinton | Representative |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | 32.63% | 61.63% | Dina Titus |
| 2nd | 52.03% | 39.67% | Mark Amodei |
| 3rd | 47.55% | 46.55% | Joe Heck |
| Jacky Rosen | |||
| 4th | 44.55% | 49.50% | Cresent Hardy |
| Ruben Kihuen |
Analysis
[edit]Hillary Clinton won the state over nationwide winner Donald Trump, marking the third presidential election in a row that Nevada has voted Democratic. Most counties in the state of Nevada are rural, and voted heavily for Trump. As a whole, the rural counties outside of Las Vegas and Reno gave Donald Trump a 66–27 margin. However, Clinton won the state's two most populous counties, Clark County and Washoe County, which contain about 85% of the state's population, and thus won the state's electoral votes. Compared to 2012, Clinton's margin of victory was narrower in these two counties and statewide.
This is the second time since 1908, and the first time since 1976, that Nevada voted for a candidate who did not win the general election.
See also
[edit]References
[edit]- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. September 19, 2019. Retrieved December 14, 2020.
- ^ "2016 Candidates - NVDems". Archived from the original on March 31, 2016. Retrieved May 21, 2016.
- ^ "Bernie vs. Hillary boils over in Nevada before Clark convention". Ralston Reports. April 2, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Sanders likely flips two delegates after dominating Clark convention". Ralston Reports. April 2, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Rappeport, Alen (May 17, 2016). "Bernie Sanders Supporters Voice Ire at Nevada Democratic Party". The New York Times. Retrieved May 17, 2016.
- ^ a b c Benen, Steve (May 17, 2016). "The fallout from Nevada's Democratic unrest". MSNBC. Retrieved May 17, 2016.
- ^ LaCapria, Kim (May 19, 2016). "The Chair Thrown 'Round the World". Snopes. Retrieved May 23, 2016.
- ^ Ralston, John (May 16, 2016). "The sour grapes revolution that rocked the Paris Hotel". Ralston Reports. Retrieved May 17, 2016.
- ^ Snyder, Riley (May 18, 2016). "Allegations of fraud and misconduct at Nevada Democratic convention unfounded". Politifact. Retrieved May 19, 2016.
- ^ a b Werner, Erica (17 May 2015). "Sanders Issues Defiant Statement Under Pressure Over Ruckus". ABC. AP. Archived from the original on 18 May 2016. Retrieved 17 May 2016.
- ^ Luna, Jenny (May 24, 2016). "Samantha Bee Smacks Down Angry Bernie Supporters; A night of bro-bashing". Mother Jones. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
- ^ Leeds, Sarene (May 24, 2016). "Samantha Bee Takes Down Bernie Sanders Supporters Following the Nevada Democratic Convention". Wall Street Journal. Retrieved May 24, 2016.
- ^ Primaries and Caucuses on YouTube Last Week Tonight with John Oliver May 22, 2016
- ^ Democrats Divided on Hillary and Bernie on YouTube Late Night with Seth Meyers May 19, 2016
- ^ "RealClearPolitics - Election 2016 - Nevada: Trump vs. Clinton".
- ^ "2016 Electoral Scorecard". The Cook Political Report. November 7, 2016. Archived from the original on February 7, 2019. Retrieved September 8, 2022.
- ^ "Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours". Los Angeles Times. November 6, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Road to 270: CNN's general election map - CNNPolitics.com". Cnn.com. November 8, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Presidential Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved August 16, 2021.
- ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2016 President". Centerforpolitics.org. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ Todd, Chuck. "NBC's Final Battleground Map Shows Clinton With a Significant Lead". NBC News. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "2016 Election Maps - Battle for White House". RealClearPolitics. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "Electoral Scorecard: Map shifts again in Trump's favor, as Clinton holds edge". Fox News. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ "The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election". Abcnews.go.com. November 7, 2016. Retrieved November 13, 2016.
- ^ US Presidential Race results, Nevada Secretary of State, November 22, 2016, archived from the original on January 29, 2020, retrieved November 27, 2016
- ^ "Daily Kos Elections' statewide election results by congressional and legislative districts". Daily Kos. Retrieved January 8, 2024.
External links
[edit]- RNC 2016 Republican Nominating Process Archived 2016-11-08 at the Wayback Machine
- Green papers for 2016 primaries, caucuses, and conventions
- Green papers for the 2016 Nevada caucuses and convention
