2021 Hong Kong legislative election: Difference between revisions
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==Strategies== |
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The pro-Beijing camp enhanced their inter-party alliances from the previous election in order to maximise the chance of holding the majority in the legislature. In New Territories West, [[Alice Mak Mei-kuen|Alice Mak]] of the [[Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions]] (FTU) was joined by former [[Islands District Council]] member Sammi Fu Hiu-lam of the [[New People's Party (Hong Kong)|New People's Party]] (NPP) on her ticket and former [[Yuen Long District Council]] chairman Sham Ho-kit with rural background as campaigner manager to consolidate the middle class and rural votes respectively.<ref>{{cite news|title=工聯派5隊 麥美娟獲新民黨傅曉琳抬轎|url=https://news.mingpao.com/pns/%E6%B8%AF%E8%81%9E/article/20200719/s00002/1595095622168/%E5%B7%A5%E8%81%AF%E6%B4%BE5%E9%9A%8A-%E9%BA%A5%E7%BE%8E%E5%A8%9F%E7%8D%B2%E6%96%B0%E6%B0%91%E9%BB%A8%E5%82%85%E6%9B%89%E7%90%B3%E6%8A%AC%E8%BD%8E|newspaper=明報|date=2020-07-19}}</ref> In Kowloon West, pro-Beijing independent [[Chan Hoi-yan]] who won in the [[November 2018 Kowloon West by-election]] was also joined by [[Liberal Party (Hong Kong)|Liberal Party]] [[Kowloon City District Council]] member Ho Hin-ming, former [[Federation of Hong Kong and Kowloon Labour Unions]] (FLU) member Chen Lihong and former FTU District Council candidate Lee Man-kit, attempting at broadening the voter appeal in order to win three seats for the pro-Beijing camp in the constituency.<ref>{{Cite news|title=【立會選戰】建制九西力保陳凱欣 自由黨、工聯會入隊撐|url=https://www.inmediahk.net/node/1075543|date=2020-07-16|work=香港獨立媒體}}</ref> |
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==Opinion polling== |
==Opinion polling== |
Revision as of 05:15, 22 July 2020
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All 70 seats to the Legislative Council 36 seats needed for a majority | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Registered | 4,466,944 (GC) 18.20% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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The 2020 Hong Kong Legislative Council election is scheduled on 6 September 2020 for the 7th Legislative Council of Hong Kong (LegCo).[1] A total of 70 members, 35 from geographical constituencies (GCs) and 35 from functional constituencies (FCs), will be returned.
Background
Anti-extradition protests and District Council landslide
In mid 2019, the Carrie Lam administration push for an amendment of the extradition law created an unprecedented political crisis in Hong Kong.[2] More than a million people marched against the bill in mid June and resulted in violent clashes between the police and the protesters outside the Central Government Complex on 12 June.[3]
The protests dragged on and escalated as Carrie Lam refused to fully withdraw the bill, resulting in huge anti-government sentiment that projected on the November District Council election, where the pro-Beijing parties suffered historic defeat, costing them about two third of the seats. The pro-democrats jumped from around 124 to about 388 seats and took control of 17 of the 18 District Councils as a result.[4]
The stunning results greatly boosted the morale of the pro-democrats who turned their eyes on a majority of the Legislative Council in 2020 election. Benny Tai, initiator of the 2014 Occupy protests, suggested the chance of the pro-democrats winning more than half of the seats to block the government's bills including the expected legislation of the Article 23 of the Basic Law and pressured the government to implement the five key demands of the protest movement, initiating a primary within the pro-democracy camp. He also initiated "ThunderGo plan 2.0", which mirrored his coordinating mechanism of "smart voters" in the 2016 election to strategic voting in order to increase the chance of the pro-democracy candidates.[5]
National security legislation
In early 2020, the central government suddenly shuffled the personnels and organisations of its representative organs in Hong Kong by replacing the China's Liaison Office in Hong Kong director Wang Zhimin with former Communist Party secretary in Shanxi Luo Huining and Hong Kong and Macau Affairs Office director Zhang Xiaoming with former Communist Party secretary in Zhejiang Xia Baolong, with Luo becoming his deputy.[6] Political analysts speculated that one of the key tasks for Luo and Xia was to make sure that the pro-Beijing camp would continue to hold the majority in the legislature in the coming election.[7]
The two Beijing's agencies in Hong Kong had been unusually outspoken, going on offensive by urging the Hong Kong government for implement new national security law to safeguard national security.[8] In May 2020, the Beijing authorities initiated a plan for implementing the national security law for Hong Kong which would prominently criminalise "separatism, subversion, terrorism and foreign interference", which many interpreted as a crackdown on civil liberties, government critics, and the independence movement.[9] Pro-democracy camp and various national governments expressed concern that the Chinese plans would undermine Hong Kong autonomy and the "One Country, Two Systems" principle. Civic Party leader Alvin Yeung said the details of the legislation show "Beijing's power is stabbing right into Hong Kong's judicial and administrative organs like a sword." He warned that "Hong Kong’s worst nightmare has been mapped out" and added that the lack of details on specific criminal actions was "extremely worrying." The NPC approved the Chinese plans on 29 May 2020 and the National People's Congress Standing Committee (NPCSC) subsequently convened for drafting the details of the law.[10]
In June, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Erick Tsang suggested that anyone who opposed the coming national security law would be disqualified from September's Legislative Council elections. He stressed that it is everyone's duty to safeguard national security, and the imposition of security laws "is only natural". Alvin Yeung described Tsang's comments as a form of "illogical and irresponsible intimidation" to the potential opposition candidates.[11] On 30 June, the NPCSC unanimously passed the national security law without fully disclosing the content of the law. Hours after the news, leading members of the Demosistō Joshua Wong, Nathan Law, Agnes Chow and Jeffrey Ngo announced their departure from the party. The party subsequently announced it would disband on the same day, saying that the resignation of several key members in light of the national security law made it difficult for them to continue their operations.[12] Former Demosistō chairman Nathan Law decided to flee Hong Kong and dropped out from the pro-democracy primaries in response to the security law.[13][14]
COVID-19 pandemic
The months-long anti-government protests and the alleged initial mishandling of the coronavirus outbreak cost Carrie Lam's substantial public support. A Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute survey in late January found 75 per cent of respondents were dissatisfied with the government's response to the outbreak, while Lam's support rating sunk to nine per cent in late February, the lowest on record for any leader.[15][16] In February 2020, a confidential report by Carrie Lam to the central government revealed that Lam's attempt to win back the public trust and support by effectively handling the coronavirus outbreak in which she believed would serve as a political turnaround for the coming election.[17]
On 5 May, two former Chief Executives Tung Chee-hwa and Leung Chun-ying launched a pro-Beijing alliance Hong Kong Coalition.[18] The alliance was co-sponsored by 1,545 representatives of various sectors including senior politicians, former government officials, university heads and tycoons. It said it aimed to "get Hong Kong start again" by boosting the declining economy and uniting the divided society. It also announced to give away 10 million face masks across all 18 districts of Hong Kong.[19] Political scientist Ivan Choy believed the alliance was set up as a part of the electioneering of the pro-Beijing camp in the coming election and to support Beijing's Hong Kong policy.[20]
In mid July amid another spike of new confirmed coronavirus cases in the city, Tam Yiu-chung, the sole representative from Hong Kong on NPCSC, suggested that the government should not rule out postponing the upcoming election.[21] Echoed by other pro-Beijing politicians, Tam said elderly people would not go to vote out of fear of being infected. He also noted said many elderly people had migrated to live in the Greater Bay Area and would prefer not to return to Hong Kong to vote, given that the city implemented a 14-day quarantine requirement for incoming travelers, denying any criticism that the pro-Beijing camp was afraid of losing the election. Tanya Chan, Civic Party legislator and convenor of the pro-democracy camp in the legislature, said the pro-Beijing camp was urging the postponement of the LegCo election as they knew they would lose. She noted that many places, including Queensland in Australia, South Korea and Singapore, had run their elections amid the pandemic earlier this year.[22]
Pro-democracy primaries
Organised by Benny Tai and former legislator Au Nok-hin and conducted by Power for Democracy, the pro-democracy primaries were held on 11 and 12 July. A total number of 52 people candidates from all over the spectrum in the pro-democracy movement participated in the primaries.[23] Over 590,000 electronic ballots and more than 20,000 paper ballots were recorded throughout the two-day vote, more than 13 per cent of the total number of registered voters and far exceeding the organisers' expected turnout of 170,000 despite the security law and legal threats.[24]
Traditional pro-democrat parties lost grounds to the localist new faces, with many veteran democrats performed much worse than expectation. Democratic Party incumbent Helena Wong only came seventh in her Kowloon West constituency and former legislator "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung of the League of Social Democrats managed only ninth place in New Territories East for which only the top seven candidates would run in the general election.[25] Incumbent legislator Joseph Lee of the Health Services constituency also lost to Winnie Yu of the labour union Hospital Authority Employees Alliance. With many new coming localists emerged on top, an unofficial six-person alliance led by former Demosistō secretary-general Joshua Wong, incumbent legislator Eddie Chu and endorsed by withdrawn candidate Nathan Law, became the biggest winner with all of them coming either top or second in their respective constituencies.[25]
Retiring incumbents
Potential candidates
Potential individuals with at least one reliable source:
Geographical Constituencies
Hong Kong Island (6 seats)
- Cheung Kwok-kwan (DAB), incumbent Legislative Council member for Hong Kong Island and Executive Council member[41][42]
- Hui Chi-fung (Democratic), incumbent Legislative Council member for Hong Kong Island[43][44]
- Tat Cheng (Civic), incumbent Eastern District Council member[45][44]
- Kwok Wai-keung (FTU), incumbent Legislative Council member for Hong Kong Island[46]
- Regina Ip (NPP), incumbent Legislative Council member for Hong Kong Island and Executive Council member[47]
- Chong Tsz-yan (Civic Passion), host of Passion Times[48]
- Derek Yuen (Hope for HK), former policy director of the New People's Party[49][50]
- Tiffany Yuen (Nonpartisan), incumbent Southern District Council member
- Fergus Leung (Nonpartisan), incumbent Central and Western District Council member[51]
Kowloon West (6 seats)
- Vincent Cheng (DAB), incumbent Legislative Council member for Kowloon West[42][52]
- Priscilla Leung (BPA), incumbent Legislative Council member for Kowloon West[53]
- Claudia Mo (HK First), incumbent Legislative Council member for Kowloon West[44][54]
- Jimmy Sham (LSD), incumbent Sha Tin District Council member[25]
- Kalvin Ho (ADPL), incumbent Sham Shui Po District member[55]
- Jason Poon (Hope for HK), former chief manager of the China Technology Corporation[49][50]
- Chan Hoi-yan (Nonpartisan), incumbent Legislative Council member for Kowloon West[53]
- Sunny Cheung (Nonpartisan), former spokesman of the Hong Kong Higher Institutions International Affairs Delegation[56][44][54]
Kowloon East (5 seats)
- Joe Lai (DAB), former Wong Tai Sin District Council vice chairman[42][57]
- Wu Chi-wai (Democratic), incumbent Legislative Council member for Kowloon East[43][44]
- Jeremy Tam (Civic), incumbent Legislative Council member for Kowloon East[45][44]
- Tang Ka-piu (FTU) former Islands District Council member and Legislative Council member [58]
- Tam Tak-chi (People Power), vice chairman of People Power[56][44]
- Paul Tse (Nonpartisan), incumbent Legislative Council member of Kowloon East[57]
- Joshua Wong (Nonpartisan), former secretary-general of the Demosistō[44][56]
- Li Ka-tat (Nonpartisan), incumbent Kwun Tong District Council member[59]
New Territories West (9 seats)
- Chan Han-pan (DAB), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories West[41][42][60]
- Holden Chow (DAB), incumbent Legislative Council member for District Council (Second)[41][42][60]
- Andrew Wan (Democratic), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories West[43][44]
- Kwok Ka-ki (Civic), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories West[45][44]
- Alice Mak (FTU), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories West[46]
- Michael Tien (Roundtable), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories West[61]
- Sam Cheung (TMCN), incumbent Tuen Mun District Council member[62][44]
- Ng Kin-wai (TSW Connection), incumbent Yuen Long District Council member[44]
- Eddie Chu (Nonpartisan), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories West[44]
- Junius Ho (Nonpartisan), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories West[53][57]
- Wong Ji-yuet (Nonpartisan), former spokesperson of Scholarism[25]
- Michael Mo (Nonpartisan), incumbent Tuen Mun District Council member[44][56]
New Territories East (9 seats)
- Chan Hak-kan (DAB), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories East[42][63]
- Elizabeth Quat (DAB), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories East[42][63]
- Lam Cheuk-ting (Democratic), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories East[43][44][64]
- Alvin Yeung (Civic), incumbent Legislative Council member for New Territories East[45][44][64]
- Dominic Lee (NPP), former Sham Shui Po District Council member[65][57]
- Chan Chi-chuen (People Power), incumbent Legislative Council member[44][64]
- Gary Fan (Neo Democrats), former Legislative Council member for New Territories East[56][44][64]
- Wong Siu-kin (Civic Passion), incumbent Tai Po District Council member[48]
- Jack Lee (Hope for HK), former editor of Undergrad of the University of Hong Kong[50]
- Hau Chi-keung (Nonpartisan), chairman of the Sheung Shui Rural Committee and North District Council ex officio member[66]
- Richard Chan (Nonpartisan), incumbent Tai Po District Council member[64]
- Gwyneth Ho (Nonpartisan), former Stand News journalist[56][44][64]
- Ventus Lau (Nonpartisan), president of the Shatin Community Network[44][64]
- Owen Chow (Nonpartisan), 2019 Sha Tin District Council candidate[64]
District Council (Second)
- Starry Lee (DAB), incumbent Legislative Council member for District Council (Second)[42][60][67]
- Kwong Chun-yu (Democratic), incumbent Legislative Council member for District Council (Second)[43]
- James To (Democratic), incumbent Legislative Council member for District Council (Second)[43]
- Lester Shum (Nonpartisan), incumbent Tsuen Wan District Council member[67]
- Wong Pak-yu (Nonpartisan), incumbent Yuen Long District Council member[59]
Traditional Functional Constituencies
Agriculture and Fisheries
Education
- Ip Kin-yuen (PTU), incumbent Legislative Council member for Education[69]
- Tang Fei (FEW), principal of Heung To Middle School[69]
- Raymond Yeung (Nonpartisan), secondary school teacher[70]
Legal
- Dennis Kwok (Civic), incumbent Legislative Council member for the Legal constituency[71]
Accountancy
- Kenneth Leung (Professional Commons), incumbent Legislative Council member for Accountancy[72]
- Nelson Lam (Nonpartisan), former president of Society of Chinese Accountants and Auditors[73]
Health Services
Engineering
- Lo Wai-kwok (BPA), incumbent Legislative Council member for Engineering[75]
- Wilson Wong (Nonpartisan), founder of the Hong Kong Federation of Young Professionals[75]
Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape
- Tony Tse (Nonpartisan), incumbent Legislative Council member for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape[75]
- Kwan Siu-lun (Nonpartisan), Election Committee member for Architectural, Surveying, Planning and Landscape subsector[75]
Labour (3 seats)
- Wong Kwok (FTU), chairman of the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions[46][76]
- Dennis Leung (FTU), former Kwai Tsing District Council member[46][76]
- Lam Chun-sing (FLU), chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong and Kowloon Labour Unions[34][77]
Social Welfare
- Eric Tam (DAB), former Tai Po District Council member[68]
- Cheung Chi-wai (SWGU), external vice-president of Hong Kong Social Workers' General Union[78]
- Ken Tsang (Nonpartisan), Kowloon City District Council member[79]
- Hendrick Lui (Nonpartisan), 2020 pro-democracy primaries candidate for New Territories East[79]
Real Estate and Construction
- Clarence Leung (BPA), son of the Legislative Council President Andrew Leung, and spokesman of the BPA Youth Committee[80]
- Howard Chao (Liberal), chairman of the Liberal Party Youth Committee and convenor of the Development and Construction Industry Concern Group[80]
Tourism
- Paul Chan (Nonpartisan), founder of GLO Travel[49][81]
- Frankie Chow (Nonpartisan), founder of Flyagain.la[82]
- Perry Yiu (Nonpartisan), assistant general manager of Hong Kong China Travel Service[83]
Industrial (Second)
- Mandy Tam (Nonpartisan), incumbent Wong Tai Sin District Council member[84]
Financial Services
- Kelvin Lam (Nonpartisan), incumbent Southern District Council member[85]
Sports, Performing Arts, Culture and Publication
- Kenneth Fok (Nonpartisan), vice president of the Sports Federation and Olympic Committee of Hong Kong, China[86]
- Herbert Chow (Nonpartisan), chairman of fashion brand Chickeeduck[87]
Import and Export
- Kennedy Wong (DAB), vice president of the Hong Kong Chinese Importers' and Exporters' Association[75][37]
Textiles and Garment
- Chung Kwok-pan (Hope for HK/Liberal), incumbent Legislative Council member for Textiles and Garment[50]
Wholesale and Retail
- Tommy Cheung Sau-yin (Nonpartisan), incumbent Yuen Long District Council member[88]
Information Technology
- Wong Ho-wa (Nonpartisan), founder of g0vhk and Election Committee member for the Information Technology subsector[89]
- Norma Chu (Nonpartisan), founder of website DayDayCook[89]
Catering
- Gordon Lam (Civic), chairman of the Hong Kong Food Truck Federation[90][91]
- Tommy Cheung Yu-yan (Liberal), incumbent Legislative Council member for Catering and Executive Council member[75][90]
District Council (First)
- Lau Pui-yuk (DAB), incumbent Sham Shui Po District Council member[68]
- Andrew Chiu (PfD/PC/Democratic), incumbent Eastern District Council vice chairman[92][93][94]
- Yam Kai-bong (Neo Democrats), incumbent Tai Po District Council member[95]
- Yau Man-chun (Community Sha Tin), incumbent Sha Tin District Council member[96]
- Lau Cheuk-yu (Nonpartisan), incumbent Tsuen Wan District Council member[94]
- Lee Ka-wai (Nonpartisan), incumbent Tuen Mun District Council member[62][92][94][97]
- Cheung Man-lung (Nonpartisan), incumbent Kwai Tsing District Council vice chairman[92][94]
Nomination received
Nominations of candidates received by the Electoral Affairs Commission in the nomination period from 18 to 31 July 2020:[98]
Geographical Constituencies (35 seats)
Voting system: Party-list proportional representation with largest remainder method and Hare quota.
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District Council (Second) Functional Constituency (5 seats)
Voting system: Party-list proportional representation with largest remainder method and Hare quota.
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Other Functional Constituencies (30 seats)
Voting systems: Different voting systems apply to different functional constituencies, namely for the Heung Yee Kuk, Agriculture and Fisheries, Insurance and Transport, the preferential elimination system of voting was used; and for the remaining 24 FCs the first-past-the-post voting system.[99]
Strategies
The pro-Beijing camp enhanced their inter-party alliances from the previous election in order to maximise the chance of holding the majority in the legislature. In New Territories West, Alice Mak of the Hong Kong Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) was joined by former Islands District Council member Sammi Fu Hiu-lam of the New People's Party (NPP) on her ticket and former Yuen Long District Council chairman Sham Ho-kit with rural background as campaigner manager to consolidate the middle class and rural votes respectively.[100] In Kowloon West, pro-Beijing independent Chan Hoi-yan who won in the November 2018 Kowloon West by-election was also joined by Liberal Party Kowloon City District Council member Ho Hin-ming, former Federation of Hong Kong and Kowloon Labour Unions (FLU) member Chen Lihong and former FTU District Council candidate Lee Man-kit, attempting at broadening the voter appeal in order to win three seats for the pro-Beijing camp in the constituency.[101]
Opinion polling
By camps
Date(s) conducted |
Polling source | Sample size | Pro-democracy | Pro-Beijing | Undecided/Not Voting/Other | Lead |
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15–18 June 2020 | HKPORI | 1,002 | 53% | 29% | 18% | 24% |
17–20 March 2020 | HKPORI | 1,001 | 58% | 22% | 20% | 36% |
4 September 2016 | 2016 election results | 55.0% | 40.2% | (41.7/4.9%) | 14.9% |
References
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External links
- 2020 Legislative Council General Election Official Website
- Electoral Affairs Commission Official Website
- Registration and Electoral Office Official Website