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2014–15 Croatian presidential election

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Croatian presidential election, 2014–15
← 2009–10 28 December 2014 (first round)
11 January 2015 (second round)		 2019–20 →
Turnout47.12% (first round)
59.05% (second round)
 
Nominee Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Ivo Josipović
Party HDZ Independent (SDP)
Popular vote 1,114,945 1,082,436
Percentage 50.74% 49.26%
Results of the second round in all of Croatia's counties: the candidate with the majority of votes in each administrative division.
  Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović   Ivo Josipović
President before election

Ivo Josipović
Independent

Elected President

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović
HDZ

Politics of Croatia
Coat of arms
Constitution
Executive
Legislative
Judiciary
Political parties in Sabor
Elections and referendums
Recent elections

Recent referendums

Administrative divisions
Foreign relations

Presidential elections were held in Croatia on 28 December 2014 and 11 January 2015, the sixth such elections since independence in 1991. Only four candidates contested the elections, the lowest number since 1997. Incumbent President Ivo Josipović, who had been elected as the candidate of the Social Democratic Party in 2009–10 but ran as an independent, was eligible to seek reelection for a second and final five-year term. As no candidate received 50% of the vote in the first round in December 2014, a run-off took place in January 2015 between the two candidates with the most votes; Josipović and Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović.[1] Grabar-Kitarović went on to win the elections by a slim margin of 32,509 votes or 1.48%, making her Croatia's first female president.[2]

The elections were the second to have a woman in the run-off, the first having been the 2005 elections, and also featured the youngest candidate to run in a presidential contest, Ivan Vilibor Sinčić, aged 24. The election of Grabar-Kitarović was the first victory for the Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) in a presidential election since the death of Franjo Tuđman in December 1999, making her the first right-wing President of Croatia in 15 years. The defeat of Josipović marked the first time that an incumbent Croatian President had failed to win reelection for a second five-year term, with both his predecessors Franjo Tuđman and Stjepan Mesić serving two terms. The number of votes (1,114,900) received by Grabar-Kitarović in the second round was the lowest number of votes received by any elected Croatian President to date. Grabar-Kitarović was sworn in as the fourth President of Croatia on 15 February 2015, becoming the youngest person to take office as President of the Republic of Croatia, aged 46 years and 295 days.

Background and rules

Ivo Josipović, the incumbent president in 2015 whose term expired on 18 February 2015.

In mid-October 2014 the SDP-led government proposed adopting a new electoral law by February 2015. SDP's parliamentary speaker Josip Leko stated that the party's position in consultation with the Venice Commission was that the electoral law should not be changed within a year prior to an election.[3] However, the new Law on the Election of the President of the Republic of Croatia was subsequently voted in by the SDP-led parliamentary majority on 24 October.[4] The opposition Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) walked out on the vote criticizing the timing, while most of the parliament's minority representatives voted against the law due to a lack of consultation of parliamentary groups.[5] The SDP's Peđa Grbin, head of the parliament's constitutional committee jeered the opposition: "I understand why my colleagues from HDZ are opposed, since they won't have to wait until midnight to find that they've also lost these elections" - ostensibly in reference to a part of the law which shortened the electoral silence from midnight on election day to the closing of the polls.[5]

One of the more significant changes to the law involved limiting voting abroad to consular offices. This had the effect of greatly reducing the number of polling stations in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina: from 124 in the 2009-10 presidential elections to 15 in the current election.[6] The Croatian People's Assembly, a grouping of Croat parties in Bosnia and Herzegovina, protested at the reduction. Overall the number of polling stations abroad was reduced from 250 to 90.

On 20 November Croatian prime minister Zoran Milanović called presidential elections to take place on 28 December.[7]

Opinions polls in late 2014 showed the Croatian public with high disapproval ratings of the country's direction and the government: 82% and 79% respectively.[8]

Campaign before the official start

Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović was first discussed as the Croatian Democratic Union's candidate in May 2014 after the party emerged with the most votes and seats nationally in the European Parliament elections.[9] Her candidature was confirmed by party leader Tomislav Karamarko on 12 June.[10]

In October, president Josipović had to deal with the fallout from an article written by his chief analyst Dejan Jović claiming that the 1991 Croatian independence referendum was "quite illiberal and was not held in free and honest circumstances".[11] Josipović subsequently dismissed Jović.

The deadline for potential candidates to submit the required 10,000 signatures to the electoral commission was midnight on the night of December 6. The first to submit his signatures was Milan Kujundžić who handed them in on 5 December. Incumbent president Ivo Josipović submitted his 203,875 signatures along with prime minister Zoran Milanović and other members of his cabinet on the day of the deadline.[12] Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović and Ivan Sinčić both also submitted the required signatures later that day.

Candidates

As of 22 November 2014, the following candidates had announced their bids:[1]

Withdrawn candidate bids

  • Anto Đapić withdrew on 5 December, endorsing Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović.[22]
  • Ivan Grubišić withdrew on 6 December, endorsing Ivan Rude.[23]
  • Ivan Rude, lawyer who handled pre-bankruptcy settlements at several large companies and candidate of the non-parliamentary Voice of Reason party, running on left-wing populist and worker's rights platform. Withdrew on 6 December after failing to collect 10,000 signatures required to formally submit his bid.[24]

First round candidates

Candidates seeking nomination first had to submit a minimum of 10,000 citizens' signatures to the State Electoral Commission (Državno izborno povjerenstvo or DIP) in order for their candidacy to be formally accepted. The signatures had to be collected in a period of twelve days, from 25 November to 6 December. The deadline for submissions was midnight, 6 December, with most candidates submitting a much larger number of signatures as a show of support. Following the submissions, DIP had two days to check the validity of signatures and announced a final list of candidates by midnight on 8 December. On 9 December the campaign officially started, and lasted for 18 days until 26 December, celebrated in Croatia as St. Stephen's Day.

Candidate Party affiliation Political remarks Proof of nomination Website
Ivo Josipović Nominally Independent, supported by the Social Democratic Party of Croatia Incumbent, stands for re-election after completing his first term. Although formally independent, Josipović was nominated by the ruling Social Democratic Party of Croatia (SDP),[13] and is supported by 16 other left wing, centre-left, green and liberal parties. Running on a centre-left platform focusing on judiciary and fight against corruption, as well as proposed reforms to the constitution which would grant the president more executive powers. Submitted some 203,000 signatures on 6 December.[25] josipovic.hr
Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Croatian Democratic Union Candidate of the biggest opposition party, the centre-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ), and supported by 7 other centre-right parties. Former foreign minister in the Cabinet of Ivo Sanader I (2003–08), Grabar-Kitarović is running on a centre-right platform. Submitted some 330,000 signatures on 6 December.[26] kolinda.hr
Milan Kujundžić Croatian Dawn Founder and president of the right-wing populist Croatian Dawn (HZ) non-parliamentary party, formed in July 2013 as a splinter party of HDZ, following Kujundžić's defeat in internal party elections. Also supported by 6 other right-wing and nationalist parties. Running on a right-wing populist platform. Submitted some 50,000 signatures on 5 December.[27] milankujundzic.hr
Ivan Vilibor Sinčić Human Blockade[28] Nominated by an activist organization called Živi Zid (Human Blockade) which fights forced home evictions by organising human shields, and which was registered as a political party in July 2011. Running on a eurosceptic, anti-NATO populist platform. Submitted some 15,000 signatures on 6 December.[29] s-p.hr

Failed candidacies

  • Ivan Bavčević submitted 7,600 signatures to the electoral commission on December 6 and was rejected.[30]
  • Ratko Dobrović submitted no signatures to the electoral commission claiming that they are "blank signatures".
  • Slobodan Midžić not submitted signatures on the prescribed form. Instead he offered a CD on which, as he claims, is about 500 thousand signatures. He is from Velika Kladuša (BiH).[31] Midžić had also failed to nominate himself for 2009 presidential election.
  • Ivica Dukić submitted only 800 signatures because "in Split and Zagreb it is raining and people are suspicious".[citation needed]
  • Vesna Balenović,[32] supported Milan Kujundžić
  • Tomislav Šutalo,[33] businessman from Valpovo
  • Ivan Valek,[34] architect and member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints
  • Iva Anzulović,[35] reporter. She said that "she is apolitical and always a reporter"
  • Tomislav Opačak,[36] businessman from Slavonski Brod. At the time, he was due to serve a prison sentence for a traffic violation. He said that "there never was a great president who did not serve prison time", mentioning Josip Broz Tito and Franjo Tuđman.[37]

Campaign

During the course of the first-round campaign the head of the president's War Veterans Council Vlado Marić gave his resignation in protest of Josipović. His resignation cited a lack of an "appropriate reaction to multiple attempts to show either [Josipović] or his close associates, personally or through the War Veterans Council, of the difficulty and seriousness of the problems affecting Croatian veterans".[38]

Incumbent president Ivo Josipović addressed his supporters on the night of the first round of elections. During his speech he stated "Too much blood has been spilled for Croatia and too many defenders died that we would give Croatia up to those who don't deserve it" in reference to the opposition challenger Grabar-Kitarović.[39] The Croatian Democratic Union criticized the president's rhetoric as "dirty and aggressive" and stressed that while Josipović "speaks of blood", their candidate offers "peace, unity and optimism".[40]

After the first round, third place candidate Ivan Sinčić was asked which of the two candidates he would support in the second round to which he replied that he could not support either due to moral reasons. Sinčić's Živi zid told his supporters to spoil their ballots in the second round by entering Sinčić's name on the ballot.[41] Vice-president of the SDP government Milanka Opačić called Sinčić a "colourful lie" in an interview from the Josipović campaign headquarters on the night of the first-round elections.[42] In response Sinčić's campaign manager Dušan Cvetanović called SDP and the government "a colourful lie which ever fewer people have faith in". SDP vice-president and director of operations for Josipović's campaign Željka Antunović also said that "Sinčić acted like an anarchist and didn't offer solutions".[43] Nevertheless, the following day Josipović reached out to Sinčić's voters: "I hope that those voters who were for Sinčić recognize that this is a field where we're playing together".[44] Sinčić continued his work with Živi zid after the first round. He was arrested during an attempt to prevent an eviction in Zagreb on 8 January.[45]

Fourth placed candidate Milan Kujundžić implicitly endorsed Grabar-Kitarović during his concession speech on the first-round election night stating that "Croatia will get a new president".[46] The Croatian Party of Rights which had backed Kujundžić subsequently endorsed Grabar-Kitarović.

Grabar-Kitarović entered the second round as only the second woman to do so after Jadranka Kosor in 2005, and attempting to be the first to win the presidency. In prime minister Milanović's new-year interview with RTL he referred to her as a "prima ballerina" in the previous HDZ government when she served as minister.[47] In the interview Milanović also referred to Croatian Catholic bishops as "the most backward in Europe" and referred to Orthodox Christmas as the only non-working day in the coming weeks, despite Ephipany being celebrated as a national non-working holiday on 6 January and Orthodox Christmas being an optional non-working holiday reserved for those Orthodox observing it.[48]

Josipović continued with some events in his presidential role during the campaign. On 6 January he was to attend the Serbian National Council's Christmas party. Traditionally, the event is attended by the president although Josipović had last been in 2012 after a falling-out with the head of the council Milorad Pupovac.[49][50]

Campaign spending

Candidate (Party) Amount spent

- until December 28 [51]

Votes Average spent per vote
  Ivo Josipović (SDP supported) 5,400,000 687,558 7.8
  Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović (HDZ) 2,500,000 665,309 3.8
  Milan Kujundžić (SZH) 390,806 112,581 3.5
style="background-color:Template:Human Blockade/meta/color" |   Ivan Sinčić (Živi zid) 92,627 293,562 0.32

Debates - Second round

Grabar-Kitarović and Josipović were scheduled to have three head-to-head debates before the second round:[52]

Opinion polls

First round

Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Ivo Josipović Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Milan Kujundžić Ivan Sinčić Others Undecided / none
style="background: Template:Independent/meta/color" | style="background: Template:Croatian Democratic Union/meta/color" | style="background: Template:Alliance for Croatia/meta/color"| style="background: Template:Human Blockade/meta/color" |
28 Dec Exit polls 38.8% 38.1% 5.7% 15.9%
19 Dec Ipsos puls for Novatv 46.5% 34.9% 7.2% 9.2%
18 Dec Promocija Plus for RTL 42.1% 30.5% 9.3% 7.5% 10.6%
4 Dec Promocija plus for RTL 42.3% 28.3% 11.2% 9.5% 8.7%
6 Sep Promocija plus 48.9% 32.5% 6.8%
4 Sep Ipsos puls 45.5% 30.9% 2.1% 9.4% 12.1%
4 Aug Promocija plus 48.4% 33.6% 4.8% 3.2% 10.0%
1-3 Jul Promocija plus 49.2% 35.2% 4.3% 1.8% 9.4%
June Promocija plus 50.1% 29.2% 6.2% 4.8% 9.6%
June Ipsos puls 50.3% 37.3% 12.4%
May Promocija plus 52.5% 27.0% 6.1% 5.9% 8.6%
April Promocija plus 51.6% 27.2% 4.5% 8.6% 8.2%
March Promocija plus 52.2% 28.4% 8.8% 10.7%
February Promocija plus 54.0% 24.0% 10.3% 11.7%
January Promocija plus 51.7% 17.4% 19.9% 11.0%

Second round

Date(s) Conducted Polling Organisation/Client Ivo Josipović Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Undecided
style="background: Template:Independent/meta/color" | style="background: Template:Croatian Democratic Union/meta/color" |
11 Jan Exit polls 48.6% 51.4% 0%
18 Dec Promocija Plus for RTL 52.0% 41.3% 6.7%
4 Dec Promocija plus for RTL 50.9% 41.4% 7.7%

Conduct

  • Candidate's observers - first round:[54]
    • Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović - 9,700
    • Ivo Josipović - 8,728
    • Milan Kujundžić - 1,875
    • Ivan Sinčić - 362
  • Political parties' observers - first round:
    • Sustainable Development of Croatia (endorsing Josipović) - 191
    • Croatian Peasant Party (endorsing Grabar-Kitarović) - 52
    • Croatian People's Party (endorsing Josipović) - 17
  • Non-governmental observers - first round:
    • In the Name of the Family - 682
    • Observer (Promatrač) organization - 53
    • Student Catholic Centre Palma - 39
    • GONG - 15
    • Croatian Responsible Society - 5
  • Non-governmental observers - second round:[55]
    • In the Name of the Family - 845
    • Observer (Promatrač) organization - 53
    • GONG - 15
    • Croatian Responsible Society - 5

Results

Results of the first round in all of Croatia's counties: the candidate with the plurality of votes in each administrative division.
  Josipović
  Grabar-Kitarović
Candidate Party First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
bgcolor=Template:Independent (politician)/meta/color| Ivo Josipović Independent 687,678 38.46 1,082,436 49.26
bgcolor=Template:Croatian Democratic Union/meta/color| Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović Croatian Democratic Union 665,379 37.22 1,114,945 50.74
bgcolor=Template:Human Shield/meta/color| Ivan Vilibor Sinčić Human Shield 293,570 16.42
bgcolor=Template:Alliance for Croatia/meta/color| Milan Kujundžić Alliance for Croatia 112,585 6.30
Invalid/blank votes 27,791 – 60,728 –
Total 1,787,928 100 2,258,887 100
Registered voters/turnout 3,794,293 47.12 3,825,242 59.05
Source: Izbori Hrvatska

First round results by county

County Electorate Total
votes 		Turnout Josipović Grabar-Kitarović Sinčić Kujundžić
Votes % Votes % Votes % Votes %
Bjelovar-Bilogora 101,494 45,071 44.41% 17,602 39.05% 16,652 36.94% 7,906 17.54% 2,371 5.26%
Brod-Posavina 140,575 66,164 47.07% 21,194 32.03% 29,811 45.05% 10,609 16.03% 3,478 5.26%
Dubrovnik-Neretva 108,910 53,412 49.04% 18,263 34.19% 22,205 41.57% 8,026 15.02% 3,994 7.38%
Istria 188,659 85,335 45.23% 52,966 62.05% 12,148 14.23% 17,144 20.08% 1,869 2.19%
Karlovac 115,725 56,420 48.75% 19,140 33.92% 24,142 42.78% 10,025 17.77% 2,445 4.33%
Koprivnica-Križevci 95,289 43,822 45.99% 18,287 41.72% 15,193 34.66% 7,689 17.54% 2,123 4.84%
Krapina-Zagorje 109,617 45,720 41.71% 18,220 39.85% 16,306 35.66% 8,555 18.71% 2,011 4.40%
Lika-Senj 46,741 21,701 46.43% 5,678 26.16% 12,171 56.06% 2,202 10.14% 1,394 6.42%
Međimurje 96,394 46,612 48.36% 27,630 59.27% 9,627 20.65% 7,458 16.00% 1,413 3.03%
Osijek-Baranja 261,730 118,379 45.23% 40,380 34.09% 47,279 39.91% 22,451 18.95% 6,754 5.70%
Požega-Slavonia 67,852 35,880 52.88% 12,555 34.99% 15,342 42.75% 5,298 14.76% 2,181 6.08%
Primorje-Gorski Kotar 268,824 119,107 44.31% 58,280 48.91% 34,882 29.27% 20,676 17.35% 3,490 2.93%
Sisak-Moslavina 152,358 64,487 42.33% 23,002 35.66% 26,201 40.62% 10,533 16.33% 3,972 6.16%
Split-Dalmatia 408,023 204,869 50.21% 61,441 29.96% 80,732 39.37% 31,194 15.21% 27,980 13.65%
Šibenik-Knin 104,976 48,340 46.05% 15,165 35.46% 21,763 45.00% 6,913 14.30% 3,736 7.73%
Varaždin 146,489 70,790 48.32% 35,589 50.26% 19,286 27.24% 12,682 17.91% 2,282 3.22%
Virovitica-Podravina 72,864 34,841 47.82% 12,577 36.09% 15,002 43.04% 5,101 14.64% 1,685 4.83%
Vukovar-Syrmia 158,872 70,673 44.48% 21,705 30.70% 35,013 49.52% 10,120 14.31% 2,837 4.01%
Zadar 165,454 71,178 43.02% 23,630 33.18% 30,766 43.20% 10,831 15.21% 4,722 6.63%
Zagreb County 272,633 128,111 46.99% 47,104 36.75% 47,287 36.90% 23,714 18.50% 7,917 6.18%
City of Zagreb 690,208 335,490 48.61% 134,915 40.17% 117,673 35.04% 53,821 16.03% 22,332 6.65%
Voting abroad – 20,601 – 2,355 11.43% 15,898 77.15% 1,649 8.00% 622 3.02%
TOTAL 3,794,293 1,787,928 47.12% 687,678 38.46% 665,379 37.22% 293,570 16.42% 112,585 6.30%
Source: State Electoral Commission[56]

Second round results by county

Results of the election based on the majority of votes in each municipality of Croatia
  Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović
  Ivo Josipović
  Tie
Results by municipality, shaded according to winning candidate's percentage of the vote.
  Grabar-Kitarović—>90%
  Grabar-Kitarović—80–90%
  Grabar-Kitarović—70–80%
  Grabar-Kitarović—60–70%
  Grabar-Kitarović—50–60%
  Tie
  Josipović—50–60%
  Josipović—60–70%
  Josipović—70–80%
  Josipović—80–90%
  Josipović—>90%
County Electorate Total
votes 		Turnout Grabar-Kitarović Josipović
Votes % Votes %
Bjelovar-Bilogora 101,897 58,988 57.89% 28,846 50.11% 28,722 49.89%
Brod-Posavina 141,045 77,573 55.00% 44,928 59.59% 30,470 40.41%
Dubrovnik-Neretva 109,308 65,029 59.49% 36,641 57.97% 26,566 42.03%
Istria 189,129 105,618 55.84% 21,152 20.53% 81,888 79.47%
Karlovac 116,112 69,849 60.16% 38,072 55.92% 30,017 44.08%
Koprivnica-Križevci 95,720 56,262 58.78% 25,579 46.57% 29,344 53.43%
Krapina-Zagorje 110,082 65,029 59.07% 29,758 47.05% 33,492 52.95%
Lika-Senj 46,979 27,695 58.95% 18,230 67.11% 8,933 32.89%
Međimurje 96,666 57,884 59.88% 15,581 27.40% 41,283 72.60%
Osijek-Baranja 262,467 149,631 57.01% 77,823 53.50% 67,638 46.50%
Požega-Slavonia 68,143 41,435 60.81% 22,780 56.37% 17,631 43.63%
Primorje-Gorski Kotar 269,622 150,206 55.71% 56,153 38.33% 90,361 61.67%
Sisak-Moslavina 152,890 84,233 55.09% 44,079 53.72% 37,967 46.28%
Split-Dalmatia 410,038 248,000 60.48% 149,531 62.12% 91,174 37.88%
Šibenik-Knin 105,511 58,894 55.82% 33,876 59.07% 23,475 40.93%
Varaždin 147,026 90,116 61.29% 31,440 35.77% 56,443 64.23%
Virovitica-Podravina 73,188 44,771 61.17% 23,339 53.50% 20,287 46.50%
Vukovar-Syrmia 159,514 88,558 55.52% 51,443 59.49% 35,024 40.51%
Zadar 166,194 87,358 52.56% 49,733 58.54% 35,226 41.46%
Zagreb County 273,728 163,479 59.72% 81,651 51.49% 76,914 48.51%
City of Zagreb 692,780 430,308 62.11% 200,573 48.11% 216,290 51.89%
Voting abroad – 37,193 – 33,737 91.11% 3,291 8.89%
TOTAL 3,825,242 2,258,109 59.03% 1,114,945 50.74% 1,082,436 49.26%
Source: State Electoral Commission[56]

Analysis

Incumbent president Ivo Josipović and opposition candidate Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović received the greatest number of votes in the first round. The result was notable for being much closer than expected in pre-election polls, with respective vote shares of 38.46% and 37.22%.[57] Political analyst Žarko Puhovski criticized the polls for having an inadequate sample and being overly reliant on telephone polling.[58]

The new electoral law put into place by the Milanović government had the effect of greatly reducing the number of polling stations in neighbouring Bosnia and Herzegovina for Croatian citizens residing there. This translated to a greatly reduced turnout there: from 50,859 in the first round of the 2009 presidential elections to 7,372 in 2014.[59][60] The Croatian Democratic Union agreed with its sister party in Bosnia and Herzegovina on organizing free buses for voters to polling stations for the second round.[61] Kolinda Grabar-Kitarović had received an overwhelming majority there in the first round. Josipović's campaign complained to the State Electoral Commission that offering free rides to polling stations constituted a donation which would violate electoral rules.[62] However, votes of the diaspora still wouldn't change the outcome.[63]

Around 60% of voters between ages 18 and 29 voted for Grabar-Kitarović, while Josipović was favoured by voters older than 60.[64]

References

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