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2018 Costa Rican general election

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Costa Rican general election, 2018
← 2014 4 February 2018 (2018-02-04) (first round)
1 April 2018 (2018-04-01) (second round)		 2022 →
 
Nominee Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz Carlos Alvarado Quesada
Party National Restoration PAC
Home state San José San José
Running mate Ivonne Acuña
Francisco Javier Prendas 		Epsy Campbell
Marvin Rodríguez
In yellow provinces won by F. Alvarado, in gold provinces won by C. Alvarado
Incumbent President

Luis Guillermo Solís
PAC



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General elections were held in Costa Rica to elect both the President and Legislative Assembly. The first round was held on February 4, 2018, with the two most voted candidates being Christian singer and Congressman Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz from the conservative National Restoration Party and writer and former Minister Carlos Alvarado Quesada from the progressive Citizens’ Action Party, gaining 24 and 21% of the votes respectively. The previously dominant National Liberation Party suffered its worst results to date ending third in the presidential run for the first time in its history with its candidate former Legislative Assembly President Antonio Álvarez Desanti achieving only 18%. Other notable candidates were lawyer and entrepreneur Rodolfo Piza from the center-right Social Christian Unity Party with 16% and right-wing populist Juan Diego Castro with 9%.

As no candidate reached the 40% threshold to win in first round, a run-off will be held between the two leading candidates on April 1, 2018.

Electoral system

The President of Costa Rica is elected using a modified two-round system in which a candidate must receive at least 40% of the vote to win in the first round; if no candidate wins in the first round, a runoff will be held between the two candidates with the biggest quantity of votes.[1]

The 57 members of the Legislative Assembly are elected using closed list proportional representation through the largest remainder method from seven multi-member constituencies with between four and 19 seats, which are based on the seven provinces.[2]

Presidential primaries

Citizens' Action Party

The internal elections for the Citizens' Action Party were held on July 9, 2017.[3] The candidates were two former ministers of the Solís Rivera administration; writer Carlos Alvarado, former Minister of Labour and Social Issues, and economist Welmer Ramos, former Economy Minister. Alvarado won by 56% of the votes. Deputies Epsy Campbell, Ottón Solis and Vicepresident Ana Helena Chacón declined a potential run.[4]

Carlos Alvarado was the first one of the party to announce his intention to run under the slogan of "I choose the future" (Elijo el futuro) and ran under a progressive platform, which sought to exalt the achievements of Luis Guillermo Solis's government and promised to continue with it. Meanwhile, Welmer Ramos's campaign focused more on a moderate and conservative campaign, under the slogan "A citizen like you" (Un ciudadano como usted) and openly criticized the current government in order to appeal to those who were upset with the administration.

Libertarian Movement

The Libertarian Movement had its first primaries on June 30, 2017.

Candidates were deputy Natalia Diaz,[5] and historic leader and deputy Otto Guevara Guth, who will attempt to run for presidency for the fifth time. Guevara won the primary over Diaz by a 10% margin. Otto Guevara's primary campaign was based under a right-wing populist campaign, stating that Donald Trump's presidential campaign had given him new inspiration to run, while Natalia Diaz's campaign promised to bring a new face to the party and offer a new alternative to the party's establishment.

After the 2016 municipal elections, the party lost its only mayor and 258 aldermen, leaving it with little power. Plus, due to Guevara's turnabout from libertarianism to religious conservatism, many party adherents created a new party: the Liberal Progressive Party, under former transport minister Eliécer Feinzag's leadership; or joined Social Christian Unity Party because of its new liberal stance on politics.

National Liberation Party

The internal elections for the National Liberation Party were held on April 2, 2017. The candidates were Sigifredo Aiza Campos, former deputy for the Guanacaste province, current deputy and radio host Rolando González Ulloa, Antonio Álvarez Desanti president of the Legislative Assembly, former minister and presidential candidate who was supported by former president Óscar Arias Sánchez, and former president José María Figueres Olsen.[6] Álvarez Desanti was chosen as the party's candidate.

Social Christian Unity Party

The Social Christian primary was held on 4 June 2017 with former president of the Health System and previous candidate Rodolfo Piza winning over current deputy Rafael Ortiz.[7]

Other candidates

Former Public Safety Minister Juan Diego Castro launched his unexpected presidential campaign presenting himself as a political outsider and with a strong anti-establishment and anti-corruption speech.[8] Promising to "rule by decree" and with a very loud "hard hand" rhetoric (uncommon in Costa Rican politics as the country is famous for its political centrism), Castro has been compared with figures like Donald Trump and Rodrigo Duterte,[9][10] and accused of right-wing populism[11] and far-right positions,[8] albeit he rejects the comparisons.[12] He's running as the National Integration Party's nominee.

Four of the minor candidates lean towards the conservative evangelical community. These are former journalist and San José deputy Fabricio Alvarado for National Restoration Party, journalist Stephanie Campos for Costa Rican Renewal Party, perennial candidate and San José deputy Óscar López for Accessibility without Exclusion, and lawyer and Cartago deputy Mario Redondo for Christian Democratic Alliance a former Cartaginese provincial party but which expanded to the national level. The left-wing Broad Front nominated Heredia deputy Edgardo Araya (es:Edgardo Araya Sibaja). The far-left Workers' Party chose the trade unionist and high school professor Jhon Vega as its candidate. The centrist and youth oriented New Generation Party chose its founder Sergio Mena as the presidential nominee. Finally, former Social Christian Unity Party's presidential nominee Rodolfo Hernández (es:Rodolfo Hernández Gómez) launched his presidential campaign with the newly formed Social Christian Republican Party, a party formed by former PUSC members dissatisfied with the liberal-controlled Social Christian Central Committee, who claimed the party had lost its Calderonist origins

Campaign

Several topics like unemployment, corruption, economics, insecurity and poverty are among the main issues that concern the electorate according to polls.[13]

But one particular event that cause uproar in the campaign was the “Cementazo” (lit. cement hit) scandal. A corruption scandal involving political figures of all the main parties,[8] including candidate Otto Guevara, whose properties and parliamentary office were raided by the General Attorney investigating the case. Some analysts point to the Cementazo scandal as one of the reasons for the unexpected ascension in polls of hardline anti-establishment candidate Castro.[8]

During the campaign Castro made a series of highly controversial statements that often caused polemic reactions. Among other things, he accused the Judiciary of having some of its female members ascending due to sexual favors,[14][15] something that sprang harsh responses from female judges and judicial workers.[16] Political figures from other parties reacted with outrage including Desanti's wife Nuria Marin and PAC's vice-president nominee Epsy Campbell.[17][18] He later clarified that he was referring to one particular case of a known female friend of his. He also called for the removal of the prohibition on oil exploitation and gold mining calling those who opposed it "eco-terrorists and extremists".[19] Desanti also said that “extremists should not dictate environmental policies” but mentioned that he opposes oil exploitation. Both Alvarado Quesada and Araya are staunch opponents of all forms of oil exploration and exploitation.[20]

A surprising ruling from the Inter-American Court of Human Rights extending all rights enjoyed by heterosexual couples to same-sex couples made after Costa Rica's government lodged a motion for clarification also had an impact on the campaign. The ruling may require up to 22 signatory countries of the Pact of San José that recognize the contentious authority of the IACHR to change their laws in order to legalize same-sex marriage (whether by legislative or judicial methods, or both). Most polls show that most Costa Ricans oppose gay marriage albeit with large numbers supporting it (in a general ratio of 60-40%).[21][22][23][24] Opponents of gay marriage were outraged by the ruling, causing an increase in social media support for Christian singer and journalist Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz[25] from the staunchly conservative National Restoration Party (a normally small party with testimonial results mostly supported by the Evangelical Christian minority). Alvarado Muñoz is, for the first time for an Evangelical candidate, attracting Catholic voters.[25] Nevertheless, Alvarado Muñoz' gain also saw a counter-reaction. Social media support for progressive pro-gay marriage candidate Carlos Alvarado Quesada was also notable, particularly among millennials and centennials who mostly support socially liberal policies.[25] Some analysts point to a possible polarization between conservative and progressive voters, or among religious and secular or older and younger generations depending on the measure, which pushed both Alvarados into the second round.[25] At least two homophobic attacks have been reported.[26][27]

Polling and voters' behavior

During pre-campaign Juan Diego Castro emerged as one of the most popular political figures with around 51% of positive opinions, followed by Antonio Álvarez Desanti with 36%, with Libertarian deputy Otto Guevara and former president José María Figueres as the ones with more negative opinions.[28] After the PLN primary in which Desanti won over Figueres by slight margin, Desanti started the campaign as frontrunner for a while with up to 36% support in some early polls.[29] Castro was also among the favorites even before he had a party supporting his candidacy (something required by law in Costa Rica as independent candidates are not allowed). As the campaign continues Desanti suffered a constant decrease in voters' intent.[30] Castro remained as frontrunner for most of 2017, but an erratic and heavily controversial campaign begins to affect him losing support in January. PUSC's Rodolfo Piza remained as second in some polls, later replaced by Castro but still in third place.[31]

The "Cementazo" scandal affected heavily the parties involved (PAC, PLN, PUSC and ML) especially during November and December when the Parliamentary Committee investigating the issue made most of its hearings, with all parties facing a reduction on their support.[32]

The IACHR’s ruling on same-sex marriage caused a turmoil in the country, with conservative candidate and staunch opponent Fabricio Alvarado showing a rapid increase in support passing from marginal percentages of around 2-6% to be in the lead with up to 17%. However, Carlos Alvarado's support also started to grow unusually fast especially in mid and late January with the later polls showing him surpassing other candidates including Castro and Piza, passing from sixth to third in a couple of days, and even in a technical tie with Desanti having possibilities to go into the run-off. Castro appeared in fourth and Piza in fifth place as of late January.[33] PAC's support historically tend to increase in January and after the debates, but it was also possible that its support comes from more liberal voters fearful of a religious government.

According to polls Fabricio Alvarado Muñoz takes most of his support from Evangelical Christian voters who represent around 70% of his voters,[34] followed by 20% Roman Catholics and 8% with no religion. Carlos Alvarado Quesada, on the contrary, is mostly supported by Catholics with 52% of his voters belonging to that denomination,[34] followed by 29% non-religious and 13% Protestants.[34] Alvarado Quesada is most popular among urban voters with higher education,[35] whilst Alvarado Muñoz is has strong support by those with only elementary or high school levels of education.[35] Also Alvarado Quesada is more popular among voters under 35, whilst Alvarado Muñoz is more popular among women under 35 and voters of both sexes over 55.[35]

Opinion polls

Main article: Opinion polling for the Costa Rican general election, 2018
Date Source File:Carlos Alvarado Quesada en 2015.jpg
Carlos Alvarado
(PAC)


Fabricio Alvarado
PREN


Antonio Álvarez
(PLN)
Juan Diego Castro
(PIN)
Rodolfo Hernández
(PRSC)
Rodolfo Piza
(PUSC) 		Others None NA Lead
style="background-color:Template:Citizens' Action Party (Costa Rica)/meta/color"| style="background-color:Template:National Liberation Party (Costa Rica)/meta/color"| style="background-color:Template:National Integration Party (Costa Rica)/meta/color"| style="background-color:Template:Social Christian Republican Party/meta/color"| style="background-color:Template:Social Christian Unity Party/meta/color"|
19–27 April 2017 Cid Gallup[29] 2% - 29% 24% 4% 11% - - 22% 5%
25–27 May 2017 Opol[36] 0.3% - 20.3% 9.6% 4.4% 9.1% 7.9% 27.5% 16.3% 11%
22–24 June 2017 Opol[37] 2.55% - 15.35% 9.99% 4.92% 10.76% 5.55% 25.7% 22.2% 5%
25–27 July 2017 Opol[38] 5.71% - 16.52% 7.66% 5.10% 9.30% 3.81% 25.44% 21.62% 7%
17–26 July 2017 CIEP[39] 8.0% 5.83% 25.2% 5.8% 1.1% 11.5% 3.2% 0.1% 42.2% 14%
29–31 August 2017 Opol[40] 2.90% - 18.20% 10.06% 3.19% 6.23% 3.81% 27.48% 23.01% 8%
27 August–2 September 2017 Enfoques[41] 2.0% - 23.7% 11.4% 2.9% 10.5% 4.7% 14.6% 22.4% 12%
5–13 September 2017 Cid Gallup[42] 6% - 23% 16% 2% 13% 1% - 30% 7%
25–28 September 2017 Opol[43] 3.89% 3% 17.13% 10.28% 4.38% 9.70% 4.07% 31.3% 14.4% 7%
3–11 October 2017 CIEP[44] 6.3% - 19.6% 12.6% 1.9% 11% 3.2% - 40.3% 7%
27–29 October 2017 Opol[45] 3.32% 2% 15.65% 11.87% 4.67% 6.46% 4.50% 28.43% 21.61% 4%
13–15 November 2017 Opol[46] 3.7% 3% 15.1% 12.3% 4.8% 6.0% 5.6% 18.8% 31.0% 3%
4–16 November 2017 CIEP[47] 4% 2% 15% 15% 5% 11% 8% - 37% Tied
19–24 November 2017 Cid Gallup[48] 4% 4% 15% 17% 7% 9% 11% - 33% 2%
28–29 November 2017 Opol[49] 3.6% 0.1% 13.4% 13.3% 3.9% 5.7% 3.30% 23.6% 31.0% Tied
20–30 November 2017 Idespo[50] 5.8% 2.6% 12.5% 16.4% 4.7% 11.5% 4.10% 2.6% 41.7% 4%
December 2017 CIEP[51] 5% 3% 14% 18% 8% 13% 7% - 42% 4%
12-19 December 2017 Opol[52] 2.6% 3.3% 17.2% 16.1% 5.9% 10.0% 4.7% 21.0% 19.2% 1.1%
2–4 January 2018 Opol[53] 2.1% 2.9% 12.2% 12.8% 4.9% 5.6% 4.1% 28.7% 26.7% 0.6%
9–11 January 2018 Opol[54] 3.1% 4.4% 14.0% 13.5% 6.0% 8.2% 4.3% 18.3% 28.2% 0.5%
9–14 January 2018 Cid Gallup[55] 5.3% 9.6% 15.5% 16.5% 7.7% 12.2% 15.7% - - 1%
12–17 January 2018 Demoscopia[56] 4% 3.5% 16.7% 12.4% 9.1% 14.7% 5.7% 11.9% 35% 2%
15–17 January 2018 CIEP[57] 6% 17% 11% 16% 6% 9% - - 17% 1%
15–20 January 2018 CID Gallup[58] 6% 14% 16% 12% 7% 12% 3% 20% - 2%
22–24 January 2018 Opol[citation needed] 5.0% 13.8% 13.4% 10.7% 5.8% 8.1% 3.6% 14.5% 24.1% 0.4%
22–24 January 2018 Demoscopía[59] 8.3% 10.7% 12% 7.3% 4% 12% 1% - - Tied
24–26 January 2018 CIEP[60] 10.6% 16.9% 12.4% 8.6% 2.8% 8.2% 1% - 36.5% 4%
31 January 2018 Opol[61] 12.0% 17.4% 13.8% 8.5% 3.8% 8.3% 2.4% 14.1% - 4%
4 February 2018 First round
8–9 February 2018 Opol[62] 28.0% 37.6% 23.2% 11.3% 9%
6–8 February 2018 CIEP[63] 42% 45% - 13% 3%
15–16 February 2018 Opol[64] 29.4% 36.1% 19.7% 14.7% 6.7%
21–23 February 2018 Opol[65] 29.2% 39.2% 15.4% 16.3% 10%
6–17 February 2018 Idespo[66] 52% 29% 23%
28 February–2 March Opol[67] 31.1% 39.7% 14% 15.2% 8.6%
27–28 February 2018 CIEP[68] 41% 39% 20% 3%
8–9 March 2018 Opol[69] 31.4% 38.7% 15.1% 14.8% 7.3%
10–15 March 2018 CID Gallup[70] 28.4% 32.9% 38% 4.5%
12–16 March 2018 Opol[71] 27.7% 36.5% 22.2% 13.6% 8.8%
19-21 March 2018 CIEP[72] 42% 43% 15% 1%
19-23 March 2018 Opol[73] 28.5% 36.2% 20.9% 14.4% 7.7%

Results

President

Provisional popular vote
Nat. Restoration
 
 24.99%
Citizens' Action
 
 21.63%
Nat. Liberation
 
 18.63%
Soc. Christ. Unity
 
 15.99%
Nat. Integration
 
 9.54%
Republican
 
 4.94%
Lib. Movement
 
 1.02%
Broad Front
 
 0.78%
New Generation
 
 0.76%
Other
 
 1.72%
Candidate Party First round Second round
Votes % Votes %
Fabricio Alvarado National Restoration Party 538,504 24.99
Carlos Alvarado Citizens' Action Party 466,129 21.63
Antonio Álvarez National Liberation Party 401,505 18.63
Rodolfo Piza Social Christian Unity Party 344,595 15.99
bgcolor=Template:National Integration Party (Costa Rica)/meta/color| Juan Diego Castro National Integration Party 205,602 9.54
style="background-color:Template:Social Christian Republican Party/meta/color;"| Rodolfo Hernández Social Christian Republican Party 106,444 4.94
Otto Guevara Libertarian Movement 21,890 1.02
Edgardo Araya Broad Front 16,862 0.78
Sergio Mena New Generation Party 16,329 0.76
Mario Redondo Christian Democratic Alliance 12,638 0.59
Stephanie Campos Costa Rican Renewal Party 12,309 0.57
bgcolor=Template:Accessibility without Exclusion/meta/color| Óscar López Accessibility without Exclusion 7,539 0.35
Jhon Vega Workers' Party 4,351 0.20
Invalid/blank votes 28,067 – –
Total 2,182,764 100
Registered voters/turnout 3,322,329 65.70
Source: TSE

By province

First round

Province PREN % PAC % PLN % PUSC % PIN % PRSC % ML % FA % PNG % Other %
style="background:Template:National Integration Party (Costa Rica)/meta/color"| style="background:Template:Social Christian Republican Party/meta/color"|
 San José Province 22.89 23.51 17.98 17.98 9.01 4.59 1.02 0.78 0.85 1.40
 Alajuela 26.76 21.83 18.16 15.23 8.85 5.44 0.91 0.75 0.72 1.34
 Cartago Province 15.02 26.43 20.17 15.06 10.87 6.36 1.03 0.76 0.86 3.45
 Heredia 21.18 27.28 17.68 18.08 8.07 3.72 1.02 0.80 0.93 1.23
 Puntarenas 35.54 12.02 18.50 13.64 11.51 4.85 1.07 0.80 0.56 1.50
 Limón 42.58 10.56 17.56 9.24 10.40 4.59 1.29 0.94 0.43 2.41
 Guanacaste 25.56 15.08 23.56 15.81 11.20 5.20 0.96 0.67 0.49 1.46
Total 24.99 21.63 18.63 15.99 9.54 4.94 1.02 0.78 0.76 1.72
Source: TSE

Legislative Assembly

Popular vote
National Liberation
 
 19.49%
National Restoration
 
 18.15%
Citizens' Action
 
 16.26%
Social Christian Unity
 
 14.63%
National Integration
 
 7.67%
Republican
 
 4.21%
Broad Front
 
 3.95%
Christ. Dem. Alliance
 
 2.45%
Libertarian Movement
 
 2.32%
Acc. w/o Exclusion
 
 2.26%
New Generation
 
 2.15%
Other
 
 6.60%
Seat allocation
Nat. Liberation
 
 29.82%
Nat. Restoration
 
 24.56%
Citizens' Action
 
 17.54%
Soc. Christ. Unity
 
 15.79%
Nat. Integration
 
 7.02%
Republican
 
 3.51%
Broad Front
 
 1.75%
Party Votes % Seats +/–
National Liberation Party 416,638 19.49 17 –1
National Restoration Party 388,086 18.15 14 +13
Citizens' Action Party 347,703 16.26 10 –3
Social Christian Unity Party 312,637 14.63 9 +1
bgcolor=Template:National Integration Party (Costa Rica)/meta/color| National Integration Party 163,933 7.67 4 +4
bgcolor=Template:Social Christian Republican Party/meta/color| Social Christian Republican Party 89,969 4.21 2 New
Broad Front 84,437 3.95 1 –8
Christian Democratic Alliance 52,325 2.45 0 –1
Libertarian Movement 49,659 2.32 0 –4
bgcolor=Template:Accessibility without Exclusion/meta/color| Accessibility without Exclusion 48,256 2.26 0 –1
New Generation Party 45,896 2.15 0 0
Costa Rican Renewal Party 41,806 1.96 0 –2
Authenthic Limonense Party 13,661 0.64 0 0
Liberal Progressive Party es 12,537 0.59 0 New
Workers' Party 11,615 0.54 0 0
Let's Act Now (Actuemos Ya) 9,898 0.46 0 New
Let's Go (Vamos) es 8,283 0.39 0 New
United Forces for Change Party 8,237 0.39 0 New
Everybody (Todos) 8,062 0.38 0 New
Guanacastecan Union Party 7,994 0.37 0 New
United Communal Party 6,270 0.29 0 New
Transporters' Party es 4,868 0.23 0 0
Recovering Values Party 4,840 0.23 0 New
Homeland, Equality & Democracy Party es 1,881 0.09 0 0
New Socialist Party es 790 0.04 0 0
Invalid/blank votes 40,540 – – –
Total 2,178,096 100 57 0
Registered voters/turnout 3,322,329 - – –
Source: TSE

By province

Province PLN PREN PAC PUSC PIN PRSC FA ADC ML PASE PNG Other
colspan="2" style="background:Template:National Integration Party (Costa Rica)/meta/color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:Social Christian Republican Party/meta/color"| colspan="2" style="background:Template:Accessibility without Exclusion/meta/color"|
% S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S % S
 San José Province 17.96 4 17.59 4 17.45 4 15.21 3 6.90 2 4.09 1 4.97 1 1.67 0 2.24 0 1.93 0 2.02 0 7.97 0
 Alajuela 21.76 3 20.62 2 17.46 2 14.32 2 7.28 1 4.81 1 2.85 0 1.70 0 1.56 0 2.08 0 2.34 0 4.78 0
 Cartago Province 19.86 2 10.52 1 19.88 2 13.31 1 8.19 1 4.72 0 3.55 0 5.65 0 1.83 0 2.59 0 3.19 0 12.36 0
 Heredia 19.05 2 17.77 1 20.95 2 17.98 1 7.06 0 3.45 0 4.86 0 1.20 0 1.98 0 1.42 0 2.18 0 2.19 0
 Puntarenas 21.59 2 24.88 2 9.28 0 14.33 1 9.24 0 4.57 0 3.05 0 1.94 0 3.42 0 1.05 0 2.47 0 5.23 0
 Limón 14.91 2 23.28 3 6.83 0 9.64 0 6.59 0 3.61 0 3.81 0 5.70 0 4.25 0 4.25 0 0.62 0 16.51 0
 Guanacaste 23.36 2 15.72 1 9.94 0 14.85 1 12.29 0 3.51 0 2.27 0 1.83 0 3.21 0 3.03 0 1.41 0 8.56 0
Total 19.49 17 18.15 14 16.26 10 14.63 9 7.67 4 4.21 2 3.95 1 2.45 0 2.32 0 2.26 0 2.15 0 6.46 0
Source: TSE VozyVoto

References

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  2. ^ Electoral system IPU
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  26. ^ "#Video ¡Intolerancia total! Hombre recibió un machetazo en el cuello solo por ser homosexual, hechos ocurrieron en Turrialba". NCR. 18 January 2018. Retrieved 19 January 2018.
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  64. ^ Angulo, Yamileth (2018-02-16). "ENCUESTA: Fabricio Alvarado 55,1% – Carlos Alvarado 44,9%". Elmundo.cr. p. Elmundo.cr. Retrieved 2018-02-16.
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  70. ^ López, Ronny (2018-03-16). "Nueva encuesta: Fabricio Alvarado a la cabeza pero se reduce ventaja sobre Carlos". AMprensa. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
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  72. ^ Murillo, Álvaro (2018-03-23). "Última encuesta CIEP-UCR: Fabricio y Carlos llevan el empate hasta el final". Semanario Universidad. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
  73. ^ Angulo, Yamileth (2018-03-23). "ENCUESTA: Fabricio Alvarado 56% – Carlos Alvarado 44%". elmundo.cr. {{cite news}}: Cite has empty unknown parameter: |dead-url= (help)
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