California exodus
 | This article needs additional citations for verification. (January 2021) |
The California exodus is an alleged mass emigration of residents and businesses from California to other U.S. states, especially Texas and Florida. The cause and existence of this migration have been extensively debated. The term became popular during the COVID-19 pandemic.[1][2][3] Some have disputed the existence of a California exodus, criticizing it as a narrative.
Demographics
| Year[4] | In-migrants | Out-migrants | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 444,749 | 573,988 | –129,239 |
| 2011 | 468,428 | 562,343 | –93,915 |
| 2012 | 493,641 | 566,986 | –73,345 |
| 2013 | 485,477 | 581,679 | –96,202 |
| 2014 | 513,968 | 593,308 | –79,340 |
| 2015 | 514,477 | 643,710 | –129,233 |
| 2016 | 514,758 | 657,690 | –142,932 |
| 2017 | 523,131 | 661,026 | –137,895 |
| 2018 | 501,023 | 691,145 | –190,122 |
| 2019 | 480,204 | 653,551 | –173,347 |
California became part of the United States after the Mexican–American War. Like much of the land ceded from Mexico in the war, California had only a small non-Native population. [citation needed] However, the California Gold Rush led to a population boom, during which California gained statehood in 1850. In the period between the 1850 and 1860 censuses, the state population more than quadrupled. It saw a second period of growth in the years after World War II because of the aerospace and defense industries, and a third during the 1980s and early 1990s because of the Silicon Valley tech industry. Population growth slowed in the mid-1990s as the federal government cut aerospace spending after the end of the Cold War, and again after the Great Recession.
According to the California Department of Finance, the state had 135,600 more people move out than moved in from July 1, 2019, to July 1, 2020, marking the third straight year of net migration losses.[5] After peaking just shy of 40 million Californians,[6] by 2020 into 2022 onward this slowing had crossed the ZPG mark into outright negative population growth for the first time in over a century.[7]
The state has had a net loss of domestic migrants every year since about 1989,[8] and in the period from 2015 to 2019 it had a net loss of at least 100,000 domestic migrants per year due to more Californians moving to other states than vice versa.[4] According to Census Bureau estimates, 6,185,000 people left the state in the 2010s decade, while 4,934,000 moved in—for a net loss of 1,251,000 residents.[9]
The change is visible in state-to-state migration flows. In 1955–1960, the ten largest state-to-state migration flows involving California all had the state as a recipient of people. This is contrasted with the period 1995–2000, where nine of the ten largest flows involving the state had California as a net loser, with only New York sending more people to California than it received in return.[10]
In 2021, more than 360,000 people left California, especially going to states like Texas, Arizona and Washington. Some are even moving to Mexico to avoid the 2021–2022 inflation surge, as Mexico is more affordable to live in than the United States.[11] Between April 2020 and July 2022, the state's population dropped by more than 500,000 people.[12]
Businesses that have left California
![[icon]](/https/en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Wiki_letter_w_cropped.svg){kind=small} | This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (June 2021) |
Several businesses, particularly Silicon Valley companies, have moved their headquarters out of California in recent years. Though they have moved to a variety of other states, Texas has received many of the new headquarters, including those of Hewlett Packard Enterprise and Oracle. Businessman Elon Musk moved from California to Texas in late 2020, though his companies SpaceX and Tesla remained in California.[8] Tesla has since relocated to Austin, Texas. Jeremy Boreing and Ben Shapiro, in September 2020, moved their company The Daily Wire to Nashville away from California. They cited California’s drug and crime problem and California’s left-wing politics as their primary reasons for departure.
Cited causes
| This section needs expansion. You can help by adding to it. (June 2021) |
A variety of causes have been given for the California Exodus, many of them relating to cost of living. Kenneth P. Miller of The San Bernardino Sun said in 2022 that taxes, as well as rising costs on housing, food, and other needs and wants, are the biggest reason for Californians leaving the state.[13] According to the Los Angeles Times, housing cost is the primary reason, followed by long commutes, crime and pollution.[12]
Housing and infrastructure
California has repeatedly been ranked as one of the country’s most expensive states to live in. The median asking price for a house is $797,470 in California, which only a quarter of households in the state can afford.[11]
Economists have cited restrictive zoning policies and lack of investment in transportation infrastructure that has resulted in sprawl, constrained housing supply, high housing prices, and severe congestion. They also cited over-reliance on sales tax, fees, and disproportionate property taxes on new residents caused by 1978 California Proposition 13.[14]
Criticism
The California Exodus has been criticized as a narrative.
In a December 2020 column for the Los Angeles Times, journalist Michael Hiltzik argued that California's slowing population growth is a cause for concern but not indicative of a full-blown crisis. Hiltzik quoted demographer Hank Johnson from the Public Policy Institute of California as saying that recent data "is just an incremental change from what we've been seeing over a couple of decades." According to Johnson, California's population trends don't compare to the "hollowing-out" of Rust Belt cities such as Cleveland, Detroit, and St. Louis, which have lost more than half their populations in the last 50 years. Hiltzik instead says that a lack of affordable housing is California's main problem, as it has pushed young people out of the state, and that concerns about over-regulation are being exaggerated.[8]
Researchers from several universities, including the University of California, Berkeley, the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), Cornell University, and Stanford University, started studying California's population in the fall of 2020. In July 2021, the researchers published their findings, which found "no evidence of an abnormal increase in residents planning to move out of the state."[15] This research was based on forward projections from a survey,[16] asking participants "Have you given any consideration recently to moving out of California?", and was not based on realized net domestic migration data.
See also
References
- ^ "California Exodus? Growth Rate At Record Low As More People Leave". KPIX 5 CBS San Francisco. CBS Broadcasting Inc. 16 December 2020. Retrieved 27 January 2021.
- ^ Song, Sharon (5 January 2021). "Study shows California exodus, with more people leaving the state despite the pandemic". KTVU FOX 2 (San Francisco). FOX Television Stations. Retrieved 27 January 2021.
- ^ Molinski, Michael (8 January 2021). "Coronavirus May Be The Tipping Point In New York And California Exodus". Investor's Business Daily. Investor's Business Daily, Inc.
- ^ a b Bureau, US Census. "State-to-State Migration Flows". The United States Census Bureau.
{{cite web}}:|last=has generic name (help) - ^ "California's growth rate at record low as more people leave". CNBC. December 16, 2020.
- ^ Beam, Adam (23 December 2019). "California's Population Stalls Just Shy of 40 Million". AP.
- ^ Avalos, George (4 May 2022). "Exodus: Bay Area, California population dropped in 2021 as people exited". BANG.
- ^ a b c "Column: California isn't 'hemorrhaging' people, but there are reasons for concern". Los Angeles Times. December 24, 2020.
- ^ "653,551 folks left California in 2019. Where did they go?". The Orange County Register. November 9, 2020.
- ^ "Net Migration Between California and Other States: 1955-1960 and 1995-2000". United States Census Bureau. March 7, 2013.
- ^ a b Dymond Green (13 June 2022). "The California exodus continues as residents head south of the border". CNBC.
- ^ a b "California's population dropped by 500,000 in two years as exodus continues". Los Angeles Times. 2023-02-15. Retrieved 2023-03-04.
- ^ Miller, Kenneth P (23 March 2022). "What is causing californians to leave the state?". San Bernardo Sun. Retrieved 29 September 2022.
- ^ "'California Exodus': Why Are So Many People Leaving The Golden State?". www.wbur.org. Retrieved 2021-06-28.
- ^ Bekiempis, Victoria (2021-07-09). "The much-discussed 'California exodus' isn't real, study finds". The Guardian. Retrieved 2022-01-30.
- ^ Kousser, Thad; Reller, Cassidy. "Do Californians See their State Moving in the Right Direction, Or Do they See Themselves Moving out of California?" (PDF). University of California.