2021 Atlantic hurricane season
| 2021 Atlantic hurricane season | |
|---|---|
| Seasonal boundaries | |
| First system formed | Season not started |
| Last system dissipated | Season not started |
| Seasonal statistics | |
| Total fatalities | None |
| Total damage | None |
| Related articles | |
The 2021 Atlantic hurricane season is a future event which is part of the annual tropical cyclone season in the Northern Hemisphere. The season officially begins on June 1, 2021, and ends on November 30, 2021. These dates historically describe the period each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin and is adopted by convention. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as was demonstrated in the past six years when at least one tropical cyclone formed before the start of the season.
Starting with this hurricane season, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will begin to issue regular Tropical Weather Outlooks on May 15, two weeks earlier than June 1, which they did in the past. The NHC, the National Weather Service (NWS), and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) planned to discuss whether or not to move up the official start of the hurricane season to May 15. These changes were proposed because of the high number of recent tropical cyclones in late May.[1][2] After discussing the possible change to the start date, it was decided that the start of the season would remain as June 1 for the 2021 season.[3]
Seasonal forecasts
| Source | Date | Named storms |
Hurricanes | Major hurricanes |
Ref |
| Average (1991–2020) | 14 | 7 | 3 | [4] | |
| Record high activity | 30 | 15 | 7 | [5] | |
| Record low activity | 4 | 2† | 0† | [5] | |
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| TSR | December 9, 2020 | 16 | 7 | 3 | [6] |
| ––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––– | |||||
| * June–November only † Most recent of several such occurrences. (See all) | |||||
In advance of, and during, each hurricane season, several forecasts of hurricane activity are issued by national meteorological services, scientific agencies, and noted hurricane experts. These include forecasters from the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s Climate Prediction Center, Tropical Storm Risk, the United Kingdom's Met Office, and Philip J. Klotzbach, William M. Gray and their associates at Colorado State University (CSU). The forecasts include weekly and monthly changes in significant factors that help determine the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a particular year. According to NOAA and CSU, the average Atlantic hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained roughly 14 tropical storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) index of 72–111 units.[7][6] NOAA typically categorizes a season as either above-average, average, or below-average based on the cumulative ACE index, but the number of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes within a hurricane season are sometimes also considered.[7]
Pre-season forecast
On December 9, 2020, Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) issued an extended range forecast for the 2021 hurricane season, predicting slightly above-average activity with 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes, and an ACE index of about 127 units. TSR cited the expected development of a weak La Niña during the third quarter of 2021 as the main factor behind their forecast.[6]
Storm names
The following names will be used for the tropical storms that form in the North Atlantic Ocean in 2021. Retired names, if any, will be announced by the World Meteorological Organization in the spring of 2022. The names not retired from this list will be used again in the 2027 season. This is the same list used in the 2015 season, with the exceptions of Elsa and Julian, which replaced Erika and Joaquin, respectively. Below are the first twenty-one names that will be used for storms.
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Until the 2020 season, the Greek alphabet was used if the 21 names were used up, as was observed in 2005 and 2020. In the spring 2021 WMO meeting, after the Greek alphabet was deemed too confusing to use, and complaints were raised about how Hurricanes Eta and Iota could not be retired, the WMO decided to end the use of the Greek alphabet as an auxiliary list. Therefore, beginning this season, if all 21 names above are used, subsequent storms will take names from a new supplemental naming list, with another 21 names that could be retired. The auxiliary list is below this text, and will be used if necessary in all seasons.[8]
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See also
- Tropical cyclones in 2021
- Atlantic hurricane season
- 2021 Pacific hurricane season
- 2021 Pacific typhoon season
- 2021 North Indian Ocean cyclone season
- South-West Indian Ocean cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
- Australian region cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
- South Pacific cyclone seasons: 2020–21, 2021–22
References
- ^ Greg Allen (February 26, 2021). "Hurricane Forecasts Will Start Earlier In 2021". npr.org. KPBS. Retrieved February 27, 2021.
- ^ Adriana Navarro (February 26, 2021). "NHC probing whether to change start-date of Atlantic hurricane season". AccuWeather. Retrieved February 27, 2021.
- ^ "WMO Hurricane Committee retires tropical cyclone names and ends the use of Greek alphabet". World Meteorological Organization. 2021-03-17. Retrieved 2021-03-19.
- ^ "Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season". Climate Prediction Center. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. 9 August 2012. Archived from the original on 22 September 2012. Retrieved 13 December 2019.
- ^ a b "Atlantic hurricane best track (HURDAT version 2)" (Database). United States National Hurricane Center. April 5, 2023. Retrieved January 9, 2025.
This article incorporates text from this source, which is in the public domain.
- Landsea, Chris (April 2022). "The revised Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT2) - Chris Landsea – April 2022" (PDF). Hurricane Research Division – NOAA/AOML. Miami: Hurricane Research Division – via Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory.
- ^ a b c Saunders, Marc; Lea, Adam (9 December 2020). "Extended Range Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Activity in 2021" (PDF). TropicalStormRisk.com.
- ^ a b Background Information: The North Atlantic Hurricane Season. Climate Prediction Center (Report). College Park, Maryland: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. August 9, 2012. Retrieved March 8, 2016.
- ^ "WMO Hurricane Committee retires tropical cyclone names and ends the use of Greek alphabet". World Meteorological Organization. 2021-03-17. Retrieved 2021-03-17.
External links
