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Revision as of 17:22, 9 February 2017

2016–17 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season
Season summary map
Seasonal boundaries
First system formedJuly 15, 2016
Last system dissipatedSeason ongoing
Strongest storm
NameCarlos
 • Maximum winds120 km/h (75 mph)
(10-minute sustained)
 • Lowest pressure975 hPa (mbar)
Seasonal statistics
Total disturbances4
Total depressions4
Total storms2
Tropical cyclones1
Total fatalitiesNone
Total damageNone
Related articles
South-West Indian Ocean tropical cyclone seasons
2014–15, 2015–16, 2016–17, 2017–18, 2018–19

The 2016–17 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season is a current event of the annual cycle of tropical cyclone and subtropical cyclone formation. It began on November 15, 2016, and will end on April 30, 2017, with the exception for Mauritius and the Seychelles, for which it will end on May 15, 2017. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical and subtropical cyclones form in the basin, which is west of 90°E and south of the Equator. Tropical and subtropical cyclones in this basin are monitored by the Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre in Réunion.

Seasonal outlook

On November 4, the Mauritius Meteorological Services (MMS) released their summer 2016–17 outlook. It is expected that six to eight cyclones will form in the Southwest Indian Ocean throughout the season from November through the first half of May. This is in addition to the two cyclones, Abela and Bransby, that formed before the outlook period. MMS also indicated that the region south of Diego Garcia would be a center of focus for cyclone formation.[1]

Seasonal summary

Tropical cyclone scales#Comparisons across basins

Systems

Severe Tropical Storm Abela

Severe tropical storm (MFR)
Tropical storm (SSHWS)
 
DurationJuly 15 – July 20
Peak intensity95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min);
987 hPa (mbar)

On July 15, a tropical depression formed to the southwest of Diego Garcia.[2] This marked only the fourth occurrence of a tropical cyclone existing in the southwest Indian Ocean during the month of July, with the others being Moderate Tropical Storm Odette in 1971, Tropical Depression M2 in 1997 and Tropical Cyclone 01U in July 2007.[3][4] The next day, the depression acquired moderate tropical storm status as gale-force winds extended more than halfway around the center.[2] The system tracked west-southwest, organizing slowly in the face of moderate vertical wind shear. On the evening of July 17, RSMC La Réunion initiated warnings on the storm after a scatterometer pass revealed 75 km/h (45 mph) winds. At the same time, Mauritius Meteorological Services named the storm Abela.[5] The small system briefly attained severe tropical storm strength the next day as a low-level eye developed.[2][6] Abela began to weaken quickly in the subsequent hours as it moved into a region with cool sea surface temperatures and low oceanic potential.[7] Abela became a remnant low on July 20 as it neared the coast of Madagascar.[2]

Subtropical Depression Bransby

Subtropical depression (MFR)
 
DurationOctober 2 – October 6
Peak intensity95 km/h (60 mph) (10-min);
988 hPa (mbar)

A zone of disturbed weather developed into a subtropical depression south of Madagascar on October 2.[8] The subtropical depression was analysed in post-analysis to have developed peak winds of 95 km/h (60 mph) on October 3.[8] The system slowly weakened as it executed an anticyclonic loop until it had winds of 75 km/h (50 mph) early on October 5, when RSMC La Réunion began to operationally warn on the system and Direction Generale de la Meteorologie (DGM) of Madagascar named it Bransby.[9] Bransby went unmonitored by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center until the next day. The storm continued to weaken throughout the day until it was barely producing gale-force winds. The next day, Bransby developed a defined banding eye as it re-intensified and accelerated to the southeast.[10] Six hours later, Bransby reattained its peak intensity. RSMC La Réunion noted that Bransby had once again developed winds of 95 km/h (60 mph), equivalent to that of the severe tropical storm rating given to tropical cyclones of the same intensity.[8] Throughout the evening of October 6, the organization of Bransby deteriorated rapidly as northwesterly wind shear took its toll, resulting in rapid weakening.[11] On October 7, Bransby became a remnant low with an elongated circulation devoid of convection while moving over 16 °C waters.[12]

Tropical Depression 03

Tropical depression (MFR)
 
DurationJanuary 27 – January 28
Peak intensity55 km/h (35 mph) (10-min);
1006 hPa (mbar)

Tropical Cyclone Carlos

Carlos
Current storm status
Tropical cyclone (MFR)
Current storm status
Category 1  (1-min mean)
Satellite image
Forecast map
As of:10:00 RET (06:00 UTC),
February 9
Location:23°42′N 53°42′E / 23.7°N 53.7°E / 23.7; 53.7 (Carlos) ± 20 nm
315 km (196 mi) SW of Réunion
Sustained winds:120 km/h (75 mph) (10-min mean)
110 km/h (70 mph) (1-min mean)
gusting to 165 km/h (105 mph)
Pressure:975 hPa (mbar; 28.79 inHg)
Movement:ESE at 6 kn (11 km/h; 6.9 mph)
See more detailed information.

Storm names

Within the South-West Indian Ocean, tropical depressions and subtropical depressions that are judged to have 10-minute sustained windspeeds of 65 km/h, (40 mph) by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Center on La Réunion Island, France (RSMC La Réunion) are usually assigned a name. However, it is the Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centers in Mauritius and Madagascar who name the systems. The Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Center in Mauritius names a storm should it intensify into a moderate tropical storm between 55°E and 90°E. If instead a cyclone intensifies into a moderate tropical storm between 30°E and 55°E then the Sub-Regional Tropical Cyclone Advisory Center in Madagascar assigns the appropriate name to the storm. Beginning from the 2016–17 season, name lists within the South-West Indian Ocean will be rotated on a triennial basis. Storm names are only used once, so any storm name used this year will be removed from rotation and replaced with a new name for the 2019–20 season. The unused names are expected to be reused in the list for the 2019–20 season.[13]

  • Abela
  • Bransby
  • Carlos (active)
  • Dineo (unused)
  • Enawo (unused)
  • Fernando (unused)
  • Gabekile (unused)
  • Herold (unused)
  • Irondro (unused)
  • Jeruto (unused)
  • Kundai (unused)
  • Lisebo (unused)
  • Michel (unused)
  • Nousra (unused)
  • Olivier (unused)
  • Pokera (unused)
  • Quincy (unused)
  • Rebaone (unused)
  • Salama (unused)
  • Tristan (unused)
  • Ursula (unused)
  • Violet (unused)
  • Wilson (unused)
  • Xila (unused)
  • Yekela (unused)
  • Zania (unused)

Seasonal effects

This table lists all of the tropical cyclones and subtropical cyclones that were monitored during the 2016–2017 South-West Indian Ocean cyclone season. Information on their intensity, duration, name, areas affected, primarily comes from RSMC La Réunion. Death and damage reports come from either press reports or the relevant national disaster management agency while the damage totals are given in 2016 or 2017 USD.

Name Dates Peak intensity Areas affected Damage
(USD) 		Deaths Refs
Category Wind speed Pressure
Abela July 15 – 20 Severe tropical storm 95 km/h (60 mph) 987 hPa (29.15 inHg) Madagascar None None
Bransby October 2 – 6 Subtropical depression 95 km/h (60 mph) 988 hPa (29.18 inHg) None None None
03 January 27 – 28 Tropical depression 55 km/h (35 mph) 1006 hPa (29.71 inHg) None None None
Carlos February 3 – Present Tropical cyclone 120 km/h (75 mph) 975 hPa (28.79 inHg) Réunion, Mauritius None None
Season aggregates
4 systems July 15 – Present 120 km/h (75 mph) 975 hPa (28.79 inHg) None None

See also

References

  1. ^ Rajan Mungra (November 4, 2015). "Summer 2016–2017 Outlook for the Republic of Mauritius". Mauritius Meteorological Services. Archived from the original on November 13, 2015. Retrieved November 13, 2015. {{cite web}}: Unknown parameter |deadurl= ignored (|url-status= suggested) (help)
  2. ^ a b c d "ABELA : 12/07/2016 AU 20/07/2016". Météo France. Retrieved 8 October 2016.
  3. ^ Soulan, Alain; Remois, Paul; Caroff, Philippe; Le Bris, Gerard (1997). 1996-1997 Tropical Cyclone Season (PDF). Meteo France. p. 69. Retrieved 16 July 2016.
  4. ^ Joe Courtney (August 16, 2007). "Tropical Cyclone Report: Unnamed Tropical Cyclone" (PDF). Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Retrieved January 26, 2009.
  5. ^ "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) WARNING NUMBER: 3/1/20162017 MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ABELA)" (PDF). Météo France. Retrieved 8 October 2016.
  6. ^ "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) WARNING NUMBER: 7/1/20162017 MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ABELA)" (PDF). Météo France. Retrieved 8 October 2016.
  7. ^ "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) WARNING NUMBER: 9/1/20162017 MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 1 (ABELA)" (PDF). Météo France. Retrieved 8 October 2016.
  8. ^ a b c "BRANSBY : 02/10/2016 AU 06/10/2016". Météo France. Retrieved 7 October 2016.
  9. ^ "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) WARNING NUMBER: 1/2/20162017 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BRANSBY)" (PDF). Météo France. Retrieved 8 October 2016.
  10. ^ "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) WARNING NUMBER: 5/2/20162017 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BRANSBY)" (PDF). Météo France. Retrieved 8 October 2016.
  11. ^ "TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) WARNING NUMBER: 8/2/20162017 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION 2 (BRANSBY)" (PDF). Météo France. Retrieved 8 October 2016.
  12. ^ "BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN 2016/10/07" (PDF). Météo France. Retrieved 8 October 2016.
  13. ^ Regional Association I Tropical Cyclone Committee (2016). "Tropical Cyclone Operational Plan for the South-West Indian Ocean" (PDF). World Meteorological Organization. Retrieved 2016-10-05.
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