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m Edited percentages of vote earned to reflect what's officially in the National Elections Council of Venezuela's website.
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|seats_before1 = 64 seats
|seats_before1 = 64 seats
|seats_needed1 = {{increase}} 21
|seats_needed1 = {{increase}} 21
|seats1 = '''109'''<ref name=CNE_data>{{cite web|title=Divulgacion Elecciones Parlamentarias|url=http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_asamblea2015/r/0/reg_000000.html|publisher=Consejo Nacional Electoral|accessdate=8 December 2015}}</ref>
|seats1 = '''109 (+3)'''<ref name=CNE_data>{{cite web|title=Divulgacion Elecciones Parlamentarias|url=http://www.cne.gob.ve/resultado_asamblea2015/r/0/reg_000000.html|publisher=Consejo Nacional Electoral|accessdate=8 December 2015}}</ref>
|seat_change1 = {{increase}} 45
|seat_change1 = {{increase}} 45 (+3)
|popular_vote1 = '''7,726,066'''
|popular_vote1 = '''7,726,066'''
|percentage1 = '''56.2%'''
|percentage1 = '''65.27%'''
|swing1 =
|swing1 =
|image2 = [[File:Diosdado Cabello 2013.jpg|134px]]
|image2 = [[File:Diosdado Cabello 2013.jpg|134px]]
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|seat_change2 = {{decrease}} 44
|seat_change2 = {{decrease}} 44
|popular_vote2 = 5,622,844
|popular_vote2 = 5,622,844
|percentage2 = 40.9%
|percentage2 = 32.93%
|swing2 =
|swing2 =
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|-
|-
|bgcolor=#0F52BA| || align=left|[[Democratic Unity Roundtable]]||7,726,066||56.22||109||{{increase}}45
|bgcolor=#0F52BA| || align=left|[[Democratic Unity Roundtable]]||7,726,066||65.27||109||{{increase}}45
|-
|-
|bgcolor={{United Socialist Party of Venezuela/meta/color}}| ||align=left|[[United Socialist Party of Venezuela]]||5,622,844||40.91||55||{{decrease}}41
|bgcolor={{United Socialist Party of Venezuela/meta/color}}| ||align=left|[[United Socialist Party of Venezuela]]||5,622,844||32.93||55||{{decrease}}41
|-
|-
|bgcolor=#0F520E| || align=left|Others||394,064||2.87||0||{{decrease}}2
|bgcolor=#0F520E| || align=left|Others||394,064||2.87||0||{{decrease}}2

Revision as of 08:05, 10 December 2015

Venezuelan parliamentary election, 2015

← 2010 6 December 2015 2020 →

All 167 seats in the National Assembly[1]
84 seats needed for a majority
Turnout74.17%
  First party Second party
 
Leader Jesús Torrealba Diosdado Cabello
Party MUD PSUV
Alliance MUD GPPSB
Leader since 2014[2] 2008
Leader's seat none Monagas
Last election 64 seats, 47.2% 96 seats, 48.2%
Seats before 64 seats 99 seats
Seats won 109 (+3)[3] 55[3]
Seat change Increase 45 (+3) Decrease 44
Popular vote 7,726,066 5,622,844
Percentage 65.27% 32.93%

Results by electoral circuits. Blue denotes circuits won by the MUD, Red denotes those won by the PSUV.

President of the NA before election

Diosdado Cabello
PSUV

President of the NA

TBD
MUD

Parliamentary elections were held in Venezuela on 6 December 2015.[4] Members of the opposition had speculated that President Nicolás Maduro might suspend the elections, but Maduro stated that the elections would happen even in the most adverse circumstances.[5] Polls showed the opposition Democratic Unity Roundtable leading by comfortable margins the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV).[6] The election results were a decisive defeat for the PSUV, who lost control of the National Assembly for the first time since 1999.[7]

Background

Since the 1999 Constitutional Assembly elections, the National Assembly was dominated by alliances supportive of President Hugo Chávez. In the 2005 parliamentary elections, most opposition parties decided to withdraw, resulting in all seats being won by the Fifth Republic Movement and other parties supportive of Chávez. For the 2010 elections, an alliance of opposition parties was formed by the Democratic Unity Roundtable to contest the elections, and managed to win 64 seats. The PSUV, which was an alliance formed by Chávez from the Fifth Republic Movement and a number of smaller parties, won 96 seats, maintaining their majority, but lost their two-thirds and three-fifths supermajority. Fatherland for All, a small left-wing party, won two seats.[8] After Chávez's death in 2013, his hand-picked successor Maduro was narrowly elected president, continuing Chávez' ideological influence.[9] The Democratic Unity Roundtable alliance aim to improve its result from last time and end the current PSUV government,[10] while Maduro said he had faith in the voters giving the government a large majority.[5]

Protests

In 2014, a series of protests and demonstrations began in Venezuela. The protests have been attributed to inflation, violence and shortages in Venezuela. The protests have been largely peaceful,[11] though some have escalated and resulted in violence from both protesters and government forces. The government has accused the protests of being motivated by 'fascists' opposition leaders, capitalism and foreign influence,[12] and has itself been accused of censorship, supporting groups called colectivos using violence against protesters and politically motivated arrests.[13]

Electoral system

Starting from 2015, the 167 members of the National Assembly are elected by a mixed majoritarian system; 113 members are elected by First-past-the-post voting in 87 constituencies. A total of 51 seats are elected by closed list proportional representation based on the 23 states and the Capital District. Seats are allocated using the d'Hondt method. The remaining three seats are reserved for indigenous peoples, and are elected by the community.[14]

The opposition coalition held primaries on 17 May in 33 of the 87 electoral districts, choosing candidates for 42 seats; 125 additional candidates are expected to be hand-picked by 'consensus' among party leaders,[15] though the rules were later changed to require 40% of opposition candidates to be women and barred some popular opposition candidates from running, a move that experts called unconstitutional.[16] The PSUV held primaries in all 87 electoral districts on 28 June with the Bolivarian government stating there was a participation of 3,162,400 voters,[17] though some observing the primaries noticed a large decrease of voters to less than 1 million participating, or about 10% of PSUV members.[16]

Conduct

Leading up to the elections, serious issues have been raised about its fairness and credibility.[18] On 10 October 2015, Brazil pulled out of a UNASUR electoral mission to observe the Venezuelan election over what it said a lack of guarantees by the socialist government and its veto of the choice to head the delegation.[19] In a statement on 10 November 2015, Secretary General of the Organization of American States Luis Almagro condemned Venezuela's electoral process, explaining that the ruling party, PSUV, has an unfair advantage with its ability to use public assets, media access, creating dubious voting sheets and by disqualifying opposition politicians, stating that "It's worrying that ... the difficulties only impact the opposition parties".[20]

Opinion polls

Graphical summary

The blue line represents percentage that favor MUD. The red line represents percentage that favor PSUV. Unfilled dots represent individual results of the polls seen below.

Poll results are listed in the tables below in chronological order and using the date the survey's fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. If such date is unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed in bold, and the background shaded in the leading party's colour.

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
PSUV MUD Others/
Independent
Undecided/
Don't know
IVAD[21][22] 29 September 2014 800 27.6% 45.2% 27.2%
Consultores 21[22] 21 September – 2 October 2014 1000 33% 48%
Datanálisis[23] October 2014 1293 21.0% 38.9% 12.9% 17.5%
Datanálisis[23] November 2014 1300 18.8% 39.8% 15.5% 17.5%
VARIANZAS[24][25] 8–23 December 2014 1200 30.3% 43.9% 4.9% [note 1] 20.9 [note 2]
Datanálisis[23] January 2015 1000 17.3% 45.9% 13.8% 17.4%
Keller y Asociados[26] January 2015 1200 44% 56%
Meganalisis[27] 25 January 2015 21.0% 29.0% 26.8%
Datanálisis[28] February 2015 ? 22.5% 59.6% 17.9%
ICS[29] 10–20 February 2015 1300 43.6% 31.6% 24.8%
DatinCorp[30] 8 February 2015 1200 23.83% 47.83% 17%[note 3]
Datanálisis[23][31] March 2015 1000 19.0% 42.6% 8.8% 21.3%
Keller y Asociados[32] 26 February – 13 March 2015 1200 31% 42% 11% 16%
Datanálisis[23] April 2015 1000 25.0% 45.8% 6.5% 16.5%
VARIANZAS[33] 19 March – 2 April 2015 1200 33.7% 46.1% 7.8% 12.5%
UCAB/Delphos[34] 10–25 April 2015 1200 15.5% 39.2% 45.7% [note 4]
Hercón[35] 1–15 May 2015 1200 28% 52% 19.8% [note 5]
DatinCorp[36] May 2015 1200 18% 48% 21% 14%[note 3]
Datanálisis[37] 18–30 May 2015 1000 21.3% 40.1% 10.0% 28.6%
Meganalisis[27] 30 May 2015 19.5% 17.6% 28.7%
IVAD[38] 28 May – 11 June 2015 1200 20.8% 32.6% 27.6 19% [note 6]
Datanálisis[39] June 2015 ? 27% 61% 12%
Hercón[40] 20–27 June 2015 2000 28.1% 61.1% 10.5%
ICS[41] 6–27 July 2015 8000
(500 per state)
45.3% 37.6% 17.1%
Datanálisis[23][42] 10–23 July 2015 999 19.2% 42.2% 11.8% 17.5%
DatinCorp[43] July 2015 1197 20% 42% 14% 23% [note 7]
Meganalisis[44] August 2015 16.3% 42.4% 13.0%
IVAD[45] 8–16 August 2015 1200 19.3% 57.9% 22.8%
Keller y Asociados[46] 19 August – 5 September 2015 1200 27% 53% 11% 9%
Datanálisis[47] September 2015 21% 44% 35%
DatinCorp[48] September 2015 20% 53%
Delphos September 2015 20% 50% 20% 10%
Meganalisis[44] September 2015 26.7% 37.6% 35.7%
Venebarómetro/IVAD[49] 5–15 September 2015 1200 17.1% 38.3% 28.0% 16.7%
Hercon[50] 13–16 September 2015 1000 22.3% 60.1% 13.0% 4.6%
Consultores 21[51] 4–20 September 2015 - 35.8% 57.8% 3.7%
Hercon[52] 5–20 September 2015 1200 30.3% 62.3% 7.3%
Consultores 21[53] October 2015 - 34% 55%
Datanálisis[54] October 2015 28.2% 63.2%
DatinCorp[55] October 2015 20% 47%
DatinCorp[56] October 2015 39% 56%
IVAD[57] October 2015 22.1% 41.8% [note 1]
Venebarómetro[58] 11 October 2015 19,9% 43.7% 26.5%
Keller y Asociados[59] 5–15 November 2015 1200 25% 59% 11% 6%
IVAD[60] 10–20 November 2015 1200 27.8% 43.0% 11.3% 17.8%
Venebarómetro[61] 8–22 November 2015 1200 27.6% 42.7% 11.1% 18.7%
Hercón[62] 10–25 November 2015 1200 31.6% 60.1% 8.2%
Meganalisis[63] 18–26 November 2015 1200 28% 63% 6% 3%

Results

The MUD won 109 of the 164 general seats and all three indigenous seats, which gave them a supermajority in the National Assembly; while the PSUV won the remaining 55 seats. Voter turnout exceeded 70 percent.[64]

Results of the list vote by state.
Party Votes % Seats +/–
Democratic Unity Roundtable 7,726,066 65.27 109 Increase45
bgcolor=Template:United Socialist Party of Venezuela/meta/color| United Socialist Party of Venezuela 5,622,844 32.93 55 Decrease41
Others 394,064 2.87 0 Decrease2
bgcolor=Template:Independent politician/meta/color| Indigenous seats 3 0
Invalid/blank votes 686,119
Total 13,742,974 100 167 +2
Registered voters/turnout 19,540,000 74.17
Source: CNE (100.0% of the vote counted)

Reactions

According to the Associated Press, celebrations and fireworks could be heard in the streets of Caracas following the MUD victory..[65] In a speech following the results, President Maduro acknowledged his party's defeat, saying that, despite these "adverse results", Venezuela's democracy and constitution had triumphed; while calling for peace, re-evaluation, he attributed the opposition's victory to an intensification of the "economic war".[65][66] A defiant Maduro said he would give no quarter to the Venezuelan opposition in spite of his own party’s crushing defeat in last weekend’s mid-term parliamentary elections. Maduro vowed to block “the counter-revolutionary right” from taking over the country. “We won’t let it,” he said.[67]

The leader of the MUD, Jesús Torrealba, told supporters after their party's victory that "The country wants change and that change is beginning today".[65] Henrique Capriles Radonski, a leading opposition politician, stated "The results are as we hoped. Venezuela has won. It's irreversible".[66]

Venezuelan bonds grew across the board about one to three cents after the announcement of MUD's victory in the elections, with one researcher at Exotix brokerage stating, "It's better than we expected. Polls suggested a victory but whether that translated into seats was another question. Also, (the government) seem to have accepted the result".[68]

Mauricio Macri, president elect of Argentina, had announced in previous days that he would request to remove Venezuela from Mercosur, as the government was not respecting democratic doctrines. He declined this plan when Maduro acknowledged the defeat of his party.[69]

Notes and references

Notes

  1. ^ a b Neither
  2. ^ 11.2% Don't know, 7.4% It depends, 2.3 % Won't vote
  3. ^ a b No vote (no votaría)
  4. ^ 20.7% Don't know, 8.2% Won't vote, 16.4% Neither
  5. ^ 11.2% Don't know, 14.2% Won't vote
  6. ^ "The rest declares themselves undecided."
  7. ^ 13% "Wouldn't Vote, 10% "Undecided"

References

  1. ^ "CNE dio a conocer distribución de diputados a elegir en todo el país". El Universal. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  2. ^ "Jesús "Chuo" Torrealba aceptó la secretaría ejecutiva de la MUD". El Mundo. 24 September 2014. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  3. ^ a b "Divulgacion Elecciones Parlamentarias". Consejo Nacional Electoral. Retrieved 8 December 2015.
  4. ^ "Venezuela to hold parliamentary election on Dec. 6". Reuters. 22 June 2015. Retrieved 22 June 2015.
  5. ^ a b "Maduro rejects speculation he'll suspend Venezuela elections - Salon.com". AP. 5 March 2015. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
  6. ^ Javier Corrales and Franz Von Bergen (23 November 2015). "Venezuela's Media Isn't Smearing the Opposition; It's Making Them Invisible". Americas Quarterly. Retrieved 26 November 2015.
  7. ^ Venezuela election: Opposition 'wins two-thirds majority', BBC News, 7 December 2015
  8. ^ "Divulgación Elecciones Parlamentarias – 26 de Septiembre de 2010" (in Spanish). Retrieved 9 April 2015.
  9. ^ "Nicolas Maduro sworn in as new Venezuelan president". BBC News. 19 April 2013. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
  10. ^ Cawthorne, Andrew; Pons, Corina (6 October 2014). "Venezuelan opposition head seeks 2015 vote gains, and 'Caribbean Norway'". Reuters. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
  11. ^ "Protestas aumentan 278% en primer semestre 2014" (in Spanish). La Patilla. 17 July 2014. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
  12. ^ Milne, Seumas. "Venezuela protests are sign that US wants our oil, says Nicolás Maduro". The Guardian. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
  13. ^ "Venezuela: UN rights chief calls for immediate release of opposition leader, politicians". United Nations. Retrieved 9 April 2015.
  14. ^ "113 diputados serán electos por voto nominal y 51 por voto lista en parlamentarias". Agencia Venezolana de Noticias. 7 May 2015. Retrieved 9 May 2015.
  15. ^ Ulmer, Alexandra (17 May 2015). "Venezuela opposition holds primaries for high-stakes parliament vote". Reuters. Retrieved 26 May 2015.
  16. ^ a b María Delgado, Antonio (21 July 2015). "Chavismo pierde participación electoral y opta por inhabilitar a la oposición". El Nuevo Herald. Retrieved 31 July 2015.
  17. ^ "Masiva movilización en primarias del PSUV: Más de 3 millones de votos".
  18. ^ "Venezuela's regime is in a scared and ugly mood". The Economist. 14 November 2015. Retrieved 14 November 2015.
  19. ^ "Brazil Pulls out of Electoral Mission to Venezuela". ABC News. Retrieved 20 October 2015.
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  22. ^ a b Martínez, Eugenio G. (28 October 2014). "Legislativas 2015: ¿por qué puede ganar la unidad y perder la oposición?; por Eugenio Martínez « Prodavinci". Prodavinci (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 May 2015.
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  24. ^ "varianzas: Presentación Encuesta Nacional Diciembre 2014" (in Spanish). 11 January 2015. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
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  27. ^ a b "Entrevista en el Canal Internacional de Noticias NTN24". Meganalisis. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
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  29. ^ "Enquesta – ICS Febrero 2015" (pdf) (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 May 2015.
  30. ^ RODRÍGUEZ T., CARMEN M. (16 March 2015). "DatinCorp: 70% califica entre mala y pésima la situación del país – Nacional y Política". El Universal (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 May 2015.
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  32. ^ "KELLER1er Trimestre 2015". Scribd (in Spanish). La Patilla. Retrieved 14 May 2015.
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  41. ^ "Mayoría de venezolanos confían que Maduro mejorará economía del país, según encuesta ICS" (in Spanish). Retrieved 29 August 2015.
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  44. ^ a b "RESULTADOS ENCUESTA NACIONAL MEGANALISIS CORRESPONDIENTE AL MES DE SEPTIEMBRE". Meganalisis. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
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  46. ^ "Maduro ha llevado al oficialismo a ser una clara minoría (encuesta Keller)". La Patilla. Retrieved 27 September 2015.
  47. ^ "Datanálisis: Chavismo y oposición necesitan a independientes para ganar el 6D". Globovision. 23 September 2015. Retrieved 21 October 2015.
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  58. ^ "Venezuela: todas las encuestas indican la caída estrepitosa del gobierno de Maduro". ICN Diario. 12 October 2015. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
  59. ^ "Keller: Entre votantes seguros, Oposición 59% Oficialismo 25% (encuesta completa)". La Patilla. 25 November 2015. Retrieved 25 November 2015.
  60. ^ "El voto hacia la AN: Oposición 43,0%, Oficialismo 27,8%, Independientes 11,3% (encuesta IVAD)". La Patilla. 25 November 2015. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
  61. ^ "El 62,8% cree que si gana el oficialismo la situación del país se mantendrá igual o emperorará (Venebarómetro)". La Patilla. 29 November 2015. Retrieved 29 November 2015.
  62. ^ "Encuesta Hercon: 65,1% cree que la oposición ganará las elecciones parlamentarias". Venezuela al Día. 28 November 2015. Retrieved 1 December 2015.
  63. ^ "Mega: Entre votantes seguros, Oposición 63% Oficialismo 28% (encuesta completa)". NTN24. 29 November 2015. Retrieved 25 November 2015.
  64. ^ "Venezuela Opposition Won Majority of National Assembly Seats". Bloomberg. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  65. ^ a b c Dreier, Hannah (7 December 2015). "Venezuela's Opposition Wins Control of National Assembly". ABC News. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  66. ^ a b "Venezuela opposition wins parliamentary majority". BBC News. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  67. ^ "Venezuela turmoil as president remains defiant after defeat". The Independent. Retrieved 10 December 2015.
  68. ^ "Weaker oil hits rouble, Venezuela bonds up on election". The Economic Times. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 7 December 2015.
  69. ^ "Macri backtracks on ousting Venezuela from Mercosur". Buenos Aires Herald. 7 December 2015. Retrieved 10 December 2015.